Donk Out of Nowhere
$1/$2 4-handed, promo drop suspended 10% rake capped at $3.
Weekday morning, the room is pretty slow due to bad weather. It's been short-handed for about an hour. H and V are playing poker, other two players are donating rake for the free coffee.
V - sitting to my right is the only player at the table playing back. We've been jabbing back and forth for smallish pots, no big clashes yet. He is mostly a tourney player and plays cash while waiting. Seems to be a thinking player, but tends to buy in short. Today, he felted two opponents as I was coming in and was sitting on ~$500.
Hero is effective stack with ~$400
H first to act in the CO with AcJc.
H raises to $10, folds to the V in the BB who calls.
HU:
Flop ($19) Qd4c2h
V checks, H bets $10, V calls
Turn ($37) 3h
V checks, H bets $20, V calls
River ($77) 3d
Board: Qd 4c 2h 3h 3d
V donks $100 ($260 eff behind), H?
11 Replies
Since you have only A-high and he called the super dry flop and then the turn, what are the hands you think he could be bluffing with?
This sort of thing is usually exactly what it appears to be--a hand that Villain is 99% certain is winning in a spot where he expects you to check behind, or something like Ahxh that Villain assumes has no showdown value and that he can't call with on the river. If Villain had 22, 33, 55, or A5, I guess that I would have expected him to checkraise the turn, praying that you got sticky with a good Q.
I think this relatively close, and I'd be tempted to look him up. But you you are going to feel like a real chump when he rolls over Ah4h that he thought he was turning into a bluff.
I think this relatively close, and I'd be tempted to look him up. But you you are going to feel like a real chump when he rolls over Ah4h that he thought he was turning into a bluff.
Fortunately, I'm not worried about feeling like a chump. I did have the passing thought of raising at the risk of looking like super-chum when he snaps and rolls over 33! Then I remembered I'm sober.
River bluffs / especially when he donks saying I don’t want you to check behind are severely under bluffed.
If this had started with a FD on the flop I could see an argument to find a call.
I think our mistake was betting the turn. Sure you pick up a gutter on that turn, but I’d much rather check behind on a nut changing card then bet two streets without a plan for the river.
Ap snap fold.
"I think our mistake was betting the turn. Sure you pick up a gutter on that turn, but I’d much rather check behind on a nut changing card then bet two streets without a plan for the river." - My initial plan was to overbet most rivers. I have AA/KK/QQ/AQ, he probably doesn't. A lot of his range that is flatting flop and turn is weaker Qx like QT or JJ, 66, 55, 54, A4. I think I can bluff those types of hands off if I can discount sets, overpairs, 65 & A5. I think many of those combos x/r me at some point, so going to the river, I wasn't terribly concerned about running into a brick wall.
My struggle was with finding what value hands V might play this way. Why pass on x/r the turn when the BDFD comes in, but then donk large on basically a brick river? If he has Qx here, it seems like a fairly straightforward x/c any reasonable bet, and I was about to put him to the test with an unreasonable bet until he donked. Sets, straights, or 2 pair are going to x/r the turn with a reasonable frequency for value, and if nutted on the river, why not let me value bet my Qx and then put me in the blender?
Why are you discounting A5 and 56?? He can easily have those on the turn as his hand isn’t defined yet - which is why I advocate checking back the turn.
You cbet a flop and villain hasn’t done anything besides check calling not one but two streets
Hes a thinking player and your line is FOS when you bet 10 and then double it to $20 OTT. If you had an overpair in your spot wouldn’t YOU bet larger OTT rather than 50% of pot because to your point the heart FD comes in. If you had an overpair wouldn’t you want to get more value from the Q that’s out there and any draws that are still drawing?
Your last line “ if nutted on the river, why not let me value bet my Qx and then put me in the blender”
Because if I had Qx here on THAT board and I played it the way you did it’s a 2 street of value game and I’m checking back the river almost always. If I had a Queen and checked the turn, I’m now betting river if checked to me.
Villains that have the nuts “fear losing value” at times and do bizarre crap… so random overbet donks happen and happen often. Is it a bluff here sometimes? Sure - but you have no real information to be able to put that together other than what’s now left on the river.., a really gross spot to bluff catch in.
Why are you discounting A5 and 56?? He can easily have those on the turn as his hand isn’t defined yet - which is why I advocate checking back the turn.
If V had a straight or a set OTT, I believe he would x/r a large chunk of the time. Both for a little bit of protection as I could have FDs, but also for value because I have a lot of Qx and a lot of Ax which might call a x/r but might check back rivers that are a little scary. If a heart or a 5 comes on the river, I'm checking back Qx a lot, and I might not pay the donk. If I have QJ and an A or K rivers, I'm checking back but I might pay off a reasonable x/r realizing that Axhh is a pretty strong combo draw. So as V on the turn with a strong hand, I'd x/r trying to size it where Ax and Qx would call.
So by betting smallish, I believe I define his hand a little bit going to the river. I can be reasonably confident that V doesn't have a set or a made straight or a strong combo draw. I would expect that class of hands to x/r at a sizable frequency to target the strong end of my range. If I check back, he could have anything he would have floated on the flop. I'm basically giving up with my exact hand if I check.
Don't get me wrong, I think that is a perfectly valid line, my hand didn't improve much OTT so just giving up and sometimes winning when it checks down is fine. But I decided to pursue a bluffing line. The game needed it, and it was a spot where I could pursue a bluff with relatively low risk in terms of gross dollars following a small/small/huge pattern.
Hes a thinking player and your line is FOS when you bet 10 and then double it to $20 OTT. If you had an overpair in your spot wouldn’t YOU bet larger OTT rather than 50% of pot because to your point the heart FD comes in. If you had an overpair wouldn’t you want to get more value from the Q that’s out there and any draws that are still drawing?
I don't think I would bet big with my big pairs because I'm not afraid of the FD. If he has a naked FD and I have AQ, he has 20%ish equity and my bet requires him to have 25% to be calling correctly. If V is going to make that mistake, great. Why bet a size where V can easily fold weak FDs like JThh? If I thought V was a fish that would marry a FD and call almost anything with it or get overly attached to Q8 and call an overbet, then sure let's got psb+. But I'd rather those draws call me then on a blank river a hand like KQ or QJ is still going to pay off a chunky river bet, maybe up to 120% pot.
Additionally, if I have a big hand, I want to give V a chance to x/r his monsters. If I'm barrelling 75% pot/pot/pot, AQ suddenly isn't looking good when V calls that down. V sitting there with a set has no reason to x/r me because I'm doing the heavy lifting building a big pot allowing him to easily x/jam river getting max value from my bluffs and my coolered hands. I don't think V is calling down that line with Q8 like a solver might.
Because if I had Qx here on THAT board and I played it the way you did it’s a 2 street of value game and I’m checking back the river almost always.
Could you expand on why?
I'd check back my weakest Qx, but AQ, KQ are clear triple barrels in my book. QJ and QT might mix. If V goes xc/xc/x, if I'm value owning myself I think I'm going to see a larger Qx. So my logic is I'd bet maybe down to QT, and if I lose I'd expect to see QJ. If I have KQ, I have the effective nuts in this line, and I'm almost always good. I don't see the river as changing anything so I see no reason to slow down on value.
Great points by Horseshiz here.
Imo we don't really need to be too concerned with trying to figure out what hands he's taking that line with as a bluff.
Way more important is just his line in general. XC-XC-B with the river bet being overpot. Def underbluffed imo as Horseshiz said.
Also agree that turn we check back often. Big factor there is that we still have some showdown value. He can worse Ax, some Kx floats and maybe even some worse floats. So checking back to potentially bluffcatch river sometimes or try to showdown or hit of course is a pretty good option there imo.
I agree its underbluffed in general, and the 3 seems like an odd card to bluff because whatever was ahead on the turn is probably still ahead on the river. In game, I was more focused on trying to figure out what his value might be. For bluffs, a lot of backdoors can float the flop and decide to take a stand against me. I tanked for a good bit trying to figure out what value might take this line.
If I check turn, I don't think I bluffcatch with AJ. I probably just give it up because I'd have some pps, weak Qx, A4, and KJ to bluffcatch with. Even AK might checkback turn sometimes. So I think my checkback range has ample protection without reaching for AJ. And I don't think I can expect any fold equity if I check xb turn and barrel river. As I said to Horseshiz, I think checking back and just giving up AJ is a reasonable line, and if I were to load it in a solver probably the theoretical line. I opted to use it as a bluff, happy to take it on the turn sometimes and expecting the monsters to reveal themselves before bluffing big on the river.
A plan that didn't survive contact with the V when he donks.
I tanked for a bit and couldn't figure out what V might bet for value in this line, but wasn't confident it was a bluff so decided to randomize.
Spoiler
Landed on call, V had K5cc for backdoor galore on flop
Not sure either of us played the hand well, but I think the river is really close and I didn't feel great about either option.
We just don't make our money picking off big river bluffs at low stakes. Sure he's going to be bluffing some of the time, but never at a level where you can accurately and profitably pick off bluffs. Let it go.
