4bpot bluff IP after XC-XX-X

PF is uncommon 4b, so would want reason to 4b to begin with

Flop is fine. I also think you actually have an okay candidate as a hand to continue bluffing. I like blocking JJ and you sized small enough preflop where SB probably has all AQ. I think when you go into the b x b line you're perceived as having less value, but I don't think his folding range actually changes too much and you're still primarily targeting something like AQ to fold still. The x by OOP otr also might remove some more combos of his value and he is still likely to continue checking with hands like AQ still, which if they fold to your jam seems okay to me. The downside is I don't think you have fold equity vs. any pair and now you no longer have equity vs. those combos when called.

So personally I'd prefer just jamming turn with the main reason being to fold out AQ and deny some equity with his thinnest floats of KQ/KJ/QJs type combos and when called by something like TXs, 99, JJ, you have some equity still. As played on the river I imagine you actually have a non-zero EV as a check, so you'll want him to fold at a frequency a bit >63.9/(63.9+63.9+73.2). If you assume he has and folds all combos of AQ (12 combos) he would need to be calling with quite a lot of combos to make it a bad jam.

Seems okay, but sort of heavily depends on how often he has AQ on river compared to paired hands.

Cheers Brokenstars

That all makes sense. Jamming turn seems a lot better

I'm not doing very well (i.e.) over adjusting now I know roughly how/why overadjusting is appropriate. I tend to see the move one street too late. You can probably guess from that cryptic clue what villain had.

I see people over adjust very often in HH reviews with students/friends etc. I also see the opposite where people are reluctant to adjust in a way that maximally exploits someone for fear of being counter-exploited. The middle ground is really just trying to deviate with the hands that would be mixed frequency at whatever node you're reviewing and only adjusting further than that with additional data and confidence.

I can not guess from that cryptic clue what villain had.

99.

He tanks... calls 99. I thought he'd fold it but I can see why that's optimistic when we look weak ott.

Are you jamming value ott as well? I would guess he folds the turn with these underpairs, so... bet small? Or is it worth having OP traps on a board like this?

Pure folding 99 ott is likely a mistake(?) Him tanking with 99 and calling is a good sign and probably means jam was fine.

I would jam turn as played, yes. Main reason to check behind turns here with made hands is under the assumption villain will have bluffs on river in that line which I find somewhat unlikely and/or if you think they are over-folding to turn jam, but defending okay in bxb, which I also find unlikely. I'm not jamming here ott or otr to try to make 99 pure fold.

4 bet pre is fine but I would prefer it if you were oop. If he is over 3 betting then just flat ip.

Ok thanks @bstars

I've just spent the morning noding this inside out. Baddish turn but OOP capped themselves so hard otf we can go bonkers with air and gladly lose to 99.

Well played villain.

Aren't we expecting OOP to now overfold to 4b?

Yes but do we know he is over folding to 4 bets? If he 3 betting extremely wide then let him make mistakes oop( you are likely ahead of his range) . Unless the only mistake he makes his over 3 betting, I would be inclined to think he will be over c betting over bluffing etc.

If he's over cbetting wouldn't that make AJo worse to call though? We won't realise much equity with this combo, even in position. We need to hit, and then pray they're capped.

I would assume he would mostly fold the wilder air range of 3b oop, but who knows

Ceres I will be one of the first to admit when I'm wrong, and who knows I may be partially or completely off lol. Did you see what he was 3betting or was he just doing a lot? I agree the equity of AJo is not so great, but if someone is already making a mistake of over 3betting I would be much much happier flatting this and allowing him to act first which increases the chances of making more mistakes along the way.