President Donald Trump

lol who cares about the market. the billionaires will invest and when it recovers they get richer (check). the people who actually pay taxes will get their money back and keep their jobs. and the poor will stayed screwed as always.

Bloomberg: Bond Chaos, Deal Mania and Jamie Dimon: Inside Trump’s Tariff Reversal

As Donald Trump’s sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs took effect just after midnight on Wednesday, the president was watching the bond market.

Long-term yields were soaring. The 10-year Treasury saw the biggest three-day jump since 2001. The president was confronting a worst-case scenario: voters who had returned him to the White House because of inflation now faced both increased prices and higher borrowing costs.

“People were getting a little queasy,” Trump allowed.

The president had for days been debating whether to fully push ahead with the tariff program, which resulted from a frenetic meeting with his economic aides just hours before he rolled out the announcement in the White House Rose Garden last week.

Within 14 hours, Trump would go on to execute one of the biggest economic policy reversals in modern presidential history, implementing a three-month pause on expanded tariffs on dozens of countries and rallying stocks that had been in free-fall since his announcement a week earlier.

China, which met Trump’s tariffs with equal retaliatory measures, was the only country not offered a reprieve; instead, the president again raised tariffs on the world’s second-largest economy.

White House officials framed Trump’s decision as the artful execution of a carefully calibrated policy that yielded offers from allies and trade partners who had approached the administration in recent days seeking to make a deal to avoid the levies.

Yet Trump himself, meeting with several race-car drivers on the South Lawn of the White House on Wednesday afternoon, conceded that the decision was driven in no small part by the chaos roiling financial markets.

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...

Basil is almost certainly just doing w/e he can to reign in on some viewer bucks - respect the hustle and all that.

1) The 10x is after the news broke lol

2) SPY is one of the largest funds in the world, this insider trading (probably) would be a collective leak throught the global market - and not just elon's brokerage account.

3) It's the algos picking up on leaks and unusual patterns and such.

4) Some dude definitely could have known about the news before hand, but it doesn't make these moves in the markets...which it didn't even do anyways.

...The question market is what moved it 18 mins before that. Global AI or some or a cabal of some really rich muther****ers risking it big.

Is this post a joke …
Pocket zeros obviously right .
And comparing Biden 4 years on the10 years with massive inflation with last night alone is lol .

It’s pretty simple really .
Over 5% it’s clearly unsustainable and something was about to break if that environment would last longer .
And yes eventually something broke -> trump did !
Hopefully no obscure high leverage hedge funds busted ….

The irony ….

Yeah the entire world screws the U.S. for decades -> including you ?

what happens next? i think the 10% tariffs go away pretty fast or that just gets negotiated out to some minor win

but what happens with china?

i find it very hard to find good analysis of what a usa/china staredown would look like...basically anything i read says china wins if its from left-leaning and USA wins if its from right leaning analysts

even china i think probably just gets to some half ass negotiation

China is screwed no matter what the US does with tariffs. Between their decaying system, a monumental demographic problem, and insane debt issues its obvious where their story ends.

Most likely Trump makes some more fuss and eventually backs down completely.

But US businesses continue to leave China either way.

Long term this is a nothing burger. Short term its a matter of how much pain everyone will suffer.

The narrative on China has changed a ton in the last 20 years. I remember mid 00s when the BRICs were the big investment story and this is good for the US because we can do tons of business with these developing nations, this is the next leg of growth for the future. Then it went to no, this is bad for the US they're going to eat our lunch. Then it shifted away from economics and into more talk about being a military/geopolitical rival. And now in the last few years, it seems to be shifting to "oh yeah there are hard limits on that type of political system"....Atleast that is how the chronology seems to me.

One thing I would say is they're investing a ton into innovation and seem to be having some pretty good success with it. EVs, AI, nuclear they seem to be ahead of us on all of them.

They should probably address their demographic problem by closing the borders and deporting a lot of young people. That's what all the geniuses are doing.

Seem correlated with the tea party/maga movement popularity .

China's debt/gdp is like half the US's

Seems unlikely thats what gets them as they are in fairly normal levels

This is a joke, right?
You have to either be trolling, or you're overtly naive and unaware.

I don't think you're going to find any good analysis on something as complex as this so it would make sense that everything you read is political fluff.

Personally, I think the tariffs are overrated and the people it affects the most are the giant multinational corporations that have a serious presence in the stock market - which is why it's been going bananas lately.

Everyone is freaking out thinking that prices are going to go through the roof but that just isn't how things work. Consumer demand still affects things in other ways. Like I said before, when the news broke with tariffs originally being placed, Ford announced their massive employee rates on all their vehicles in the attempt to swap people that now was the best time to buy! But Ford isn't dumb, and if they thought that they could get away with higher prices in the future, they wouldn't be offering this kind of deal. Other companies are also doing the same.

When the US imposes tariffs on Chinese goods, the importers pay the price, not China, so while it may decrease demand for China's products, China can still lower its prices, trade else where or speed up their domestic production.

I don't think it really affects one country over the other very much and those that it does are the billion/trillion dollar companies from both countries. It also isn't a bad thing to have let these conglomerates face domestic competition. But they don't move the stock market.

what will get China is the nuclear bombs that the USA's psychopathic leaders drop on them after they get done nuking Iran.

My prediction is that they try to isolate China through trade deals, maybe using tariffs as a negotiation. I don't think they are going to kill off the 10% tariff without some crazy favorable terms. Trump is a true believer in this Tariff thing and Peter Navarro is the only guy truly willing to die on that sword. Most people really think Navarro is a ****** lol.

It would be hard (impossible?) to predict how the trade negotiations will go. It depends how desperate everyone else is for our trade after we've attempted to burn many bridges. The administration has directly stated that the world will have to pay for access to our markets. We have some really high end medical equipment, nuclear stuff, commercial airplanes, and defense. Most everything else we export can be sourced elsewhere and probably for cheaper in most instances. We just provide incredible amounts of output

uh? rightwibg constitutional philosophy is "check the constitution as written".

constitution explicitly gives the power to set tariffs to congress.

under actual right-wing philosophy that means it has to be congress. no delegation allowed.

Maybe ford actually knew it had no choices but to increases prices later on and couldn’t sell as much as before afterwards.
So they gave those great incentives now to make sure to clear out their surplus since the tariffs were coming very quickly.

If you put tariffs to force manufacturing of some sector to come back , you can’t expect lower or similar prices since production cost should be way higher -> or robots .

The economy would certainly slowdown without much of a respite in high price .
IMO we were directly aiming at stagflation.
Most stocks don’t like that .

Yeah, I think that's reasonable too. I think when you're in the business of selling new vehicles against the likes of companies like Tesla, you either find a way to keep your prices low enough to trigger buyers or you simply don't stay competitive. Ford will have to adapt, and I'm pretty confident it won't be by just charging 10-20% more for their vehicles in a tightening economy and expect to compete with their rivals. Nobody will buy. They are going to have to eat it to some extent and I think they are aware of that - especially if the economy begins to go south or unemployment goes up.

Feels like this is a warning shot to Trump to not dick around with tariffs - I suspect the run on Bonds will start much much faster if he tries such **** again.

But who knows.

His billionaire buddies might jedi mind trick him into doing it again - he's obv easily manipulable - just to make another ton of money

I think it's important to add that demand...and maybe some good advertisement, trumps productions costs and tariffs.

I could be off but I'm seeing the production costs of an F150 going up about 600 bucks in total costs assigned from the tariffs. Those trucks have been selling at a hge markup because of demand and people having the money to pay for it.

Maybe than can trick a bunch of people that at 30k truck needs to be sold at 60k to make up for it, but if they can't they are going to back to the mercy of w/e the public is going to be willing to pay for it - that will likely determine the price.

It can also be as simple as having a large amount of inventory, seeing that consumer confidence and business projections are going down and deciding to offload your inventory at a slightly lower cost now as opposed a much lower cost later.

The graphs did shift fairly abruptly from up to down, after all.

You’d have thought that the Truss effect might have alerted them to the perils of screwing with the bond market, but then again they’ve probably never heard of her (lucky them) or the simple shock and awe operation achieved its aim of making his billionaire cohorts even wealthier.

I mean, I guess the next potential grift will commence in 90 days?