President Donald Trump
I assume it's still acceptable to have a Trump thread in a Politics forum?
So this is an obvious lie - basically aimed at
Yes. Private equity recreates protections by contract that exist already by law for publicly traded companies. That’s the point. You can draw up a contract that allows people you’re funding to lie to you about how they spend your money and how much they earn. But you’d go broke pretty quickly.
Only the finest of knob and tube wiring for our plebs.
Fox’s Gasparino Argues Trump Didn’t ‘Outsmart’ the World and Tariff Drop Was ‘Forced’ by Bond Selloff: ‘Those Markets Were Imploding Last Night’
But number two, let’s recall what happened overnight; and from what I understand — and I’m getting this from people that are talking to the White House — what happened in the bond market overnight, the spike in yields on the 30-year and the 10-year bond, which showed that people were dumping our bonds. And who are those people dumping our bonds? Japan, the biggest holder of bonds, was selling bonds. That’s what I’m getting from some very big money managers. China, maybe to some extent, but it was largely Japan and others.
If you have a mass sale of bonds, that means people are losing confidence in the US economy, on the ability to do deals with us; and from what I understand, this is what forced the hand of this 90-day reprieve. Now, is it a good thing? Are people coming to the table? Yeah, but if, you know, if you read between the lines and not even what what Scott Bessent said, we have no deals, right? There’s nobody that is really there saying, “This is what we’re gonna do,” and they paused it anyway.
Source:
you guys cried for 2 straight days about the stock market going down and then when Trump makes it go up you still get upset?
The stock market isn't supposed to be reactionary to a single input. That kind of defeats the purpose of a market
Both the US economy and US government rely on long-term debt. This debt is created when investors loan money to the government /people. The price of all debt (ie, interest rate) is determined by investors' collective willingness to loan their money, which is based on a multitude of factors including their confidence in the economy, government, currency, etc... The longer the de
10y rates moved more than 200 BP under Biden without the economy collapsing.
the 10y yield incorporates many things including positive ones. for example of investment opportunities in the real economy are good people will require more to loan money because they have better alternatives elsewhere.
Chinese 10y yields have been going down for a while and that was uncontroversially seen as a sign of lack of other opportunities, and a stagnant economy risking deflation.
Trump tariffs are inflationary so that increases 10y yields. They are also recessionary so that decreases 10y yields. depending on estimates/sentiment, one of the direction can be felt stronger than the other.
meanwhile broad based disasters in a market can bring down other markets, because of generic need to sell collateral for trades (this seems to have happened with treasuries).
meanwhile the worldwide trust in the america-centric financial system was put to test which at the margin decreases the willingness of participants to hold all dollar denominated assets. that was clear in the eurusd moves, that increases the 10y yield.
meanwhile some specific countries (china certainly, maybe others) sold treasuries:maybe with the specific purpose of punishing Trump, maybe to limit the damage to their own currencies of they were hit with tariffs. that increases 10y yields.
btw even with the rapid increases they reached numbers close to where they were
.. at election time.
and even if equities rallied massively after Trump reversed course on some of the tariffs , 10y yields... didn't drop.
it's very unclear Trump reversed because of 10y yields.
while possible, it's much more probable he either did it because if a setup he planned to make money for his donors, or just to have the stock market stop dying
I'm amazed Trump would even understand why that's important, and how his assorted coterie of bozos and idiots would understand it and even if they did, how they managed to explain its importance to Trump.
Someone got through the shitblizzard that is his brain, I'm impressed.
10y rates moved more than 200 BP under Biden without the economy collapsing.the 10y yield incorporates many things including positive ones. for example of investment opportunities in the real economy are good people will require more to loan money because they have better alternatives elsewhere.Chinese 10y yields have been going down for a while and that was uncontroversially s
It's only unclear to you. Which is why you compared an orderly move of the 10-year under Biden (tied to the Fed's steady rate increases during that time from an improving economy) to the two-day market freakout that just happened.
The stock market isn't supposed to be reactionary to a single input. That kind of defeats the purpose of a market
you realize that problem is caused by having that power in a single person hands right? which the constitution gave to congress?
have you guys realized why non delegation is actually the correct judicial philosophy?
I'm amazed Trump would even understand why that's important, and how his assorted coterie of bozos and idiots would understand it and even if they did, how they managed to explain its importance to Trump.
Someone got through the shitblizzard that is his brain, I'm impressed.
Trump doesn't understand much, but the spriraling cost of debt service is one thing with which he has a lot of experience.
It's only unclear to you. Which is why you compared an orderly move of the 10-year under Biden (tied to the Fed's steady rate increases during that time from an improving economy) to the two-day market freakout that just happened.
the 10y yield went from 1.5 in Nov 2021 to 2.7 in Feb 2022.
the fed went out of zirp in March 2022.
but keep going
you guys cried for 2 straight days about the stock market going down and then when Trump makes it go up you still get upset?
The president causing unnecessary volatility for no good reason seems like an economic problem no matter which way the pendulum is swinging in a given moment, no?
you guys cried for 2 straight days about the stock market going down and then when Trump makes it go up you still get upset?
I don't think people are upset at the result that we are no longer falling down a cliff.
The fact that trump is claiming it to be a huge victory and all his lackeys are slurping him over what great leadership, I think that is why people are upset...it was completely unnecessary and stupid to begin with. We are still worse off than before all this tariff lack of intelligence began.
The president causing unnecessary volatility for no good reason seems like an economic problem no matter which way the pendulum is swinging in a given moment, no?
and the possibility this can happen again in the future (and not only with tariffs) makes uncertainty higher in general which is never a good thing.
imagine trump starting a war with Iran then calling it off 4 days in or something
Long rates always start moving in advance of Fed policy changes, which are almost always telegraphed months in advance. You're way out of your depth here.
and fed can increase rates because the economy is good so yields going up isn't necessarily a bad thing, and that includes when they went to... the same level they are now, end of last year.
your claim was that the 10y yield going up is an unadulterated objectively always worse event and that's what I am contesting.
your claim is actually very trumpy, it's trump who thinks the best rates are always the lowest possible ones
higher long term rates are also important for the financial sector in general, if the rate curve isn't steep that is generally a bad sign, the market thinking the future doesn't hold many opportunities (and maturity transformation not giving gain as anymore, so banks start having problems).
in short I deeply disagree with the idea that 10y yields at 4.4 spelled doom about the American economy. especially when yhat happened in part because of china (and maybe Japan) selling.
That can't go on indefinitely. and in general it is far better if your debt is owned domestically for obvious accounting reasons: interest paid domestically aren't a national loss while they are when paid to foreigners.
you also can tax Americans when you pay them interests while you can't tax the Japanese, so paying Americans 4.7 saves you money vs paying the Japanese 4.4
I don't think people are upset at the result that we are no longer falling down a cliff. The fact that trump is claiming it to be a huge victory and all his lackeys are slurping him over what great leadership, I think that is why people are upset...it was completely unnecessary and stupid to begin with. We are still worse off than before all this tariff lack of intelligence b
Incorrect. We now have virtually every nation lining up to negotiate a deal. There was a little bit of pain but it was necessary to get the worlds attention.
and fed can increase rates because the economy is good so yields going up isn't necessarily a bad thing, and that includes when they went to... the same level they are now, end of last year.your claim was that the 10y yield going up is an unadulterated objectively always worse event and that's what I am contesting.your claim is actually very trumpy, it's trump who thinks the be
Never claimed that. And what you think or believe has no relevance to reality. Trump blinked because long bonds were losing value quickly, verified by the investigative journalist with connections to the WH (and a long history of being correct with such reports) and with Trump's own words.
you wrote this pocket 0
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When the long-term debt market goes down (which means yields go up), it becomes more expensive for the government and people to borrow money. When that market starts seizing up and going down quickly it means the government/people will have to pay much more to borrow money, or very worst case, nobody will lend them the money. That means a collapse of the economy
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I just strongly disagree with the idea that 10y yields going from 3.9 to 4.5, even if that happens very quickly, mean a collapse of the economy
Incorrect. We now have virtually every nation lining up to negotiate a deal. There was a little bit of pain but it was necessary to get the worlds attention.
Wow, how are you not in the cabinet? You seem to have the correct level of intelligence and attitude
if you kill 10 people then magically resurrect 8 of them , you can claim that's "better than Jesus" but it still sucks, and 2 would be dead.
sp500 is still lower than when trump **** everywhere like a drunk pigeon on April 2 with the demented worldwide table of tariffs set on bilateral trade deficits and calling them reciprocal.
