4-bet jam preflop against a bunch of nits with JTs?

I’m skipping the whether you should or shouldn’t 4b question and only commenting on sizing. I think there’s a case to be made that a 4b to $325-350 or something is scarier than a jam.

That being said I assume it’s a b/f and not a b/c.

ok but he doesn't have the 2.6 or 1.7% of hands at nearly full frequency because he cold 4bets them (or alternatively gets a chance to fold them when facing 4b). my guess would be he basically doesn't have the top of that range at all and possibly signif down weighted combos of the lower end of it (qq / ak). so while you can say he is going with 2.6% of hands, if you give him a cold calling range of 7% and divide it by 2.6 you're making a huge error in math which is what i was saying earlier. if you look at something like 50% of QQ / AKo to account for the times he either 4bs or folds when facing the action (and ignore kk+ entirely) thats 10% of the time he goes with his hand (.7 / 6.5). maybe its a bit more but i think my assumptions are more in line with reality than yours tbh. even full combos of QQ and AKo (again ignoring KK+, AKss and the jj thing) thats still 20% of your range as opposed to 40.

the math you're doing isn't for a condensed range, its a linear range which isn't the case because he elects to not cold 4b. regardless i will take the under on him putting him in 170 bb here 40% of the time

personally i think if he's a nitty reg, anything he's going to actually stack off with here will get cold 4bet and it's conceivable he never continues vs op's 4bet (i really struggle to imagine this player type getting it in w JJ here). also think mp continues rarely to the point of being an after thought in any kind of real fold equity calculations. so you can say zomg we have to get through 3 players but i think 2 of them have capped themselves to a point of near though not total irrelevancy (for bb, if you look at this action and think mp is going to regularly stack off for 170bb pre here idk what to tell you) when looking at numbers

If he is 3-betting you so much, you can limp/call with a hand like this.

What're your thoughts on BU's chunky 3! size? I'd expect smaller than 4.5X over a raise and call while on the button. (Unless they've been bit by a setminer recently, and want to be sure that IO are below 10:1, lol) I'm interpeting as they don't really want action, maybe with something that has blockers or the like. Were they happy about BB calling, if you could tell?

Agree with sub's take, if I understood correctly, that most of BB's call a 4! range would have simply cold 4! themselves, OOP.

I do like twitch's idea of 4! to less than a jam sizing. To me, it does look scarier. 4x is 360, but we could 4! to 300 or so. Though not if BU is the sort to just spaz-jam AQ etc in response.

It isn't an "error of math", it's a disagreement over what's in the range. Which is fine. That's subjective. If you think his range is JJ and lower and he is folding 100% of the time, then that's an unprovable assumption. I wouldn't be surprised to see someone cc a 3! with QQ or KK. I see that very frequently among players I would describe as passive regs. Some games are different than others. That is not an assumption I would jam into with JT.

I will note you do have a material math error. If you remove KK, AKs, half of AKo and half of QQ from his cc range, he no longer has 7%. You have to change the denominator too, so now you have about a 4%ish range. And if he is only calling with JJ/QQ and sometimes AKo, our equity is like 20%. In your original math, you estimated we had 29% equity when called. If we are going to remove a ton of AK from his cc range, our equity is a lot lower when called. We can't just build on the math that was assuming a different range.

We are jamming $830 into a $220 pot. So against just the third V if we have 20% equity when he calls we need to get it through about 70% of the time to break even - against just that one V. Using your assumptions, he is calling 0.7-1.2% with a 4%ish cc range. So V is calling 20-25% of the time. That's before we even talk about the other two. If the other two folded out of turn, maybe jamming into V on the BB is slightly positive EV. But that extra cushion we have quickly disappears when we consider that flat calling V might have done something funny and have a real hand 1% of the time, and V on the button might be aggressive and 3! too much, but even guys who 3! too much have the same odds of being dealt AA everyone else does. We are barely winning with this jam against the range we believe is capped.

I don't care how you try to justify it, jamming 4x pot with JTs into three players who like their hands is mathematically a bad play. It's a punt. I'm curious to read if OP made the punt and whether it worked out.

Here is the theoretical math

Against button V: "i mean. what % of the 10% 3betting range do u think is calling off vs 4b jam? i struggle to see much beyond 2.6% - QQ+, AK for 150ish bb. we have 29% vs that range, " Ok reasonable enough, I'll roll with that.

25% of the time button V calls we have 29% equity in a $1810 pot

BB V, lets say he calls 20% of the time. 5% of that (20%*25%), he will call when button V does. 15% he alone calls.

So
60% of the time everyone folds we win $220.
5% of the time both Vs call and our equity is about 17% in a $2, 570 pot = -$393
20% of the time only button calls we have 29% equity in a $1810 pot = -$305
15% of the time only BB calls we have 20% equity in a $1810 pot = -$468

$132-$20-$60-$70 = -$18

Using subs ranges. I believe we get called more frequently and are against a stronger range from BB so I think we are torching a lot more here. But that is game dependent, and mostly dependent on whether BB has KK, AK, and all QQ or not.

those aren't my ranges lol. all of the math i've done has been using your ranges (you said button was 3betting 10%, you said bb was cold calling 6.5-7% then i gave you a few different permutations of how i would look at bb's continuing range and you chose to use the worst one for jamming while underweighting the combos we have better equity against for stacking off).

i think button is wider than you want to believe based on op and i think bb is not going with his hand. also think we have more equity vs bb's get it in range (30ish?) although admittedly that will make slight difference in the ev calc you did. i think you undersold our equity slightly 3 ways too although i think bb basically never ever over calls this if btn gets it in if he is a (passive) reg. you're also missing 5 from the sb though rake as well too :(

i think more reasonable assessments are

70% of the time everyone folds and we win 225 = +225
20% of the time button calls and we have 29.5% of 1815 = - 295
10% of the time bb calls and we have (this is the hardest one to estimate for me) ~28% in a 1815 pot = -321

157.5 - 59 - 32.1 = +~66

again i think the last number gets 0ed out and bb really just doesn't ever go all in here so its closer to 80% of the time this gets through and we win 225 and 20% of the time we lose 295 which ends up around +120

would at bare minimum look at several different ev calcs as opposed to just choosing one and telling yourself you're being open minded or doing the math

cannot keep investing in this thread though.

Yeah, IMO the 3-bettor is loose enough that the shove goes through enough for this to be profitable. It is totally read-dependent on how loose he is 3-betting and what the flat calling range looks like.

Axs may be a little better, but JTs is not much worse allin than anything that is not a top 7% hand or so.

What's BB calling us with that we have 30% equity against?!?! That would require AK, but then the calling frequency is a lot higher. But yeah, agreed we are getting nowhere. Jam JTs preflop if you want. GL with that.

Hopefully OP will come back and let us know how it worked out for him.

all of your posts seem to be in bad faith to be honest

submersible, I was thinking the same thing in another thread.

I showed my work - what range I think is 3!, which range I think is cc a 3! and what portion of those ranges I believe are calling a shove and our equity against that range. I then adjusted it from feedback that you believed BB had a tighter cc range and very small calling range and ran the numbers again. I don't know how much more good faith there can be.

Go home, Bellezza. You're drunk.

I mean...seriously, WTF are we doing, discussing a 4B-jam with JTs? Are we in danger of losing some sort of prop / side-bet if we fold here?

That said, if V truly is aggro, and it feels like he's picking on us, I could see flatting. My reasoning is that no matter how aggro he is, he shouldn't be dumping lots of money into the pot post-flop, when we're multi-way, with two passive regs (are they regs, or recs?). If V is remotely aware, he should only c-bet and barrel for value.

Meanwhile, if we smash the flop, we can punish him for picking on us. If we miss, we can just fold, and let one of the other opponents do battle with this guy.

If you want to get into a dick-measuring contest with BTN, okay, but I wouldn't do it here, with two passive opponents also showing interest. I'd wait until we're HU, and hopefully with a hand that will measure up a bit better than JT.