President Donald Trump

What was predictable was that Trump was in over his head and did not have the brains or discipline to be a good president. Just like his first term.

Even with the S&P down 15 percent on the year, it is still an expensive market. I think you will experience some pain in the coming weeks and months if you "load it all back" on Wednesday,

"The people never have the power. Only the illusion of it. And here's the real secret: they don't want it. The responsibility is too great to bear. It's why they’re so quick to fall in line as soon as someone takes charge. They want to be told what to do. They yearn for it. Little wonder, that, since all mankind was built to serve."―Haytham Kenway to Ratonhnhaké:ton, 1781.

You are not .
Look at what trump is surrounded by in this administration and all the fraudster and convicted in his more personal and business relationships….

Unless you approve of them ?

Probably because he's never read any of it.

I expected futures to turn red when China in a statement said they will "fight until the end" with tariffs and nothing happened so going to be some wild times

Nice alpha. No idea how it's going to play out. Love see people's thoughts like this. Thanks.

Where is baham when we need him to explain what trump plan is and how great is doing ?
I mean for a guy that dislike taxes at all cost , surely tariffs are wrong ?

Seems the markets are calming down - I'm quite surprised. Was expecting the run to continue for a few weeks.

There will always be bounce days in a crash.
Look back at the 2009 and 2020 graph.

Aaaaaaaaand……out comes the incel.

We haven't seen real numbers yet. The last jobs report was decent but it's backward looking and didn't include the fallout from the government firings, much less the secondary loss of jobs from agencies cutting back. Nor have we seen the inflation effect of tariffs yet. Nor have we seen the ripple effect of businesses halting investments because of uncertainty. I believe we won't really see what's going on until q3 or q4.

It was predictable.

The bizarre administrative coup performed domestically and the enormous consolidation of executive power we are seeing was laid out in Project2025. Anyone who paid attention realized that the people behind Project2025 was part of Trump's circle, would be writing a lot of Trump's executive orders and policy documents, and they would would also be part of his administration. This was no secret. They even had training videos and seminars.

That the administration would be an incompetent shitshow was evident from anyone who has followed Trump's political trajectory. He is an incompetent man who revels in his own ignorance, and he prefers to surround himself with people who nods a lot.

That it would be a more lawless and less restrained administration than during Trump's first presidency was evident for anyone who bothered to see that MAGA has completely co-opted the GOP, that the legislative assembly would likely be controlled by Trump sycophants and that the administration's political appointments would be chosen for their loyalty to Trump, rather than competence or patriotism.

That widespread tariffs would be implemented and likely cause the economy to tumble was predicted by many, most prominently by the Democratic candidate for president.

Now, a lot of people weren't listening, and even for people who made the predictions it can be hard to to from theoretical predictions to imagining how it would be in practice. However, that isn't very relevant to the question whether any of this was predictable.

Real?

It was predictable.

The bizarre administrative coup performed domestically was laid out in Project2025, and anyone who paid attention realized that the people behind Project2025 was part of Trump's circle, would be writing a lot of Trump's executive orders and policy documents, and they would would also be part of his administration. This was no secret. They even had training videos, seminars and pamphlets publicly available.

That the administration would be an incompetent shitshow was evident from anyone who has followed Trump's political trajectory. He is an incompetent man who revels in his own ignorance, and he prefers to surround himself with people who nod a lot.

That it would be a more lawless and less restrained administration was evident for anyone who bothered to see that MAGA has completely co-opted the GOP, that the legislative assembly would likely be controlled by Trump sycophants and that the administration's political appointments would be chosen for their loyalty to Trump, rather than competence or patriotism.

That tariffs would be implemented and likely cause the economy to tumble was predicted by many, most prominently by the Democratic candidate for president.

Bold is quite psychothic given that project 2025 had both a piece by navarro, asking for what more or less is happening, and immediatly after that a piece by Lassman, in favor of free trade.

Graphs looks straight down when we look back but if you get into the detail it usuallky has many peaks and troughs along the way.

Personally Im expecting the fall a lot more before we hit bottom but part of the problem of the discussion here is that we're missing that trump being a loony buffoon with a sledgehmamer doesn't mean this wont end up very well for the markets.

T_D says

maybe I'm too steeped in the history of some of ignorant loonies who led the Uk while the british empire was booming but I'm very skeptical that trump being so ignorant implies this wont lead to what the markets and the right will consider great.

This is satire but it's good satire

If this ends up having any resemblance to the dot com crash or the financial crisis there is a long ways to go to the bottom. The bottom can easily be 1 to 2 years out from the initial crash. I hope no one is sick of this yet because there is a lot more winning to be had.

I agree and it's generally true of big crashes.

'Buying at the bottom' looks good but is largely mythical. Many try which along with many other factors is why we get bounces during spectacular crashes.

This is why I hate social media. Especially meme sites like X, bluesky, etc... Almost half my posts are... fyi, they never said that, or this isn't true.

People rarely fact-check what they post.

It took 25 years to get back to all time high of 1929.
Obviously not the same here but they sure put in a lot of effort to get there.

We haven't seen all the damage. How far are they going to go with this?

37 roofers arrested in Washington State.

https://www.newsnationnow.com/us-news/no....

Not gang members you effing idiot mongidig. A very large percentage of the people doing the actual work that puts food on people's tables and roofs over their heads are not citizens and many are not documented. I hope all the fascist Trumpy idiots have roof leaks they can't get fixed.

What's going to happen to the economy and markets when farms, food processing plants, factories of all sorts and construction are stuck because the fascists deported half the actually productive people?

I'm sorry, but most of what you wrote above is nonsense.

For one thing, a number of the "most powerful corporations in the USA" were/are big-time partners in our wars and proxy wars, like in Iraq and Gaza, and they (corruptly) reaped the rewards for this. Domestically, these behemoth multinational corporations are far more powerful than they need be. Do you remember the bidding for the two big Amazon plants? Cities were bending over backwards to please Amazon; local governments were promising unique tax breaks and loopholes, among other benefits, all for the pleasure of Amazon erecting a little company-town within their city borders. According to memory, Detroit in particular offered them some truly insane stuff.

I AM scared of the local police, true, mainly because they are what is sometimes called "the spearpoint of fascism". They carry out the orders from government leaders IN CONJUNCTION and often for the benefit of business interests. And, of course, ACAB.

In any case, these corporations are a much more prominent part of my life than Tampa mayor Jane Castor will ever be. Jeff Bezos has far more of an impact on the daily lives of Americans than any government official short of MAYBE the POTUS.

We have the answer to this already from the radical left book of rhetoric: If your business can't survive without using slaves being paid slave wages, then it doesn't deserve to exist.

What you're really asking is whether or not people will still be willing and able to buy fruit once the price is adjusted for paying laborers $30/hr to get skin cancer out in the fields instead of minimum wage illegal immigrants. We'll find out.

The construction and maintenance industry is struggling to find labor even with pretty solid wages. We can and should fill those jobs with skilled immigrant labor if nobody else steps up to the plate, but those people need to be brought in through official channels. Kick the roofers out and invite them to come back in with proper paperwork. Make the legal immigration process fast and easy. Punish business owners who knowingly hire illegal laborers and the problem will solve itself.

One thing you totally gloss over in your post is the fact that there may be other roofing companies in those markets who are priced out of work that the illegal crews are handling right now. Prices go up to the end user, but so do wages. I assume this is what they're talking about when they say there will be some short term pain for long term gain.