Would her majesty care to bluffcatch in a 4b pot?
Snap call? Snap fold? How do you evaluate this spot?
PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
CO: 135.9 BB
BTN: 114.7 BB
SB: 108.3 BB
Hero (BB): 109.8 BB
UTG: 36.7 BB
MP: 100 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q♥ Q♠
UTG raises to 2 BB, MP raises to 7.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 22 BB, fold, MP calls 14.5 BB
Flop: (46.5 BB, 2 players) 6♥ 8♣ A♦
Hero bets 14.6 BB, MP calls 14.6 BB
Turn: (75.7 BB, 2 players) 2♠
Hero checks, MP checks
River: (75.7 BB, 2 players) A♣
Hero checks, MP bets 63.4 BB and is all-in, hero?
8 Replies
I don't think you want to bet that big on the flop, will they really float JJ here? I guess it's a flop we check or bet very small (10%), way ahead/way behind.
It's hard to find a bluff for villain, they need to 3bet 54/65/76 MP vs UTG and then find the bluff. If somehow they were brave enough to call your big cbet with TT or JJ I doubt they turn it into a bluff on the river.
I would snapfold.
Out of curiosity I grabbed GTOw preflop ranges for this situation and plugged your spot into GTO+ and it turns out I am completely wrong in theory (as always :/). The solver uses 1/4 pot or 1/10 pot equally on the flop and calls QQ on the river, expecting MP bluffs all their 54s which is enough.
Ah, interesting. I'm ranging villain a fairly condensed range of 99-JJ, some KK, some AK/AQs. I've automatically assumed they're capable of bluffing enough with those combos but that definitely might not be true enough.
Presumably from GTO's PoV the pot odds justify the means. It's probably not taking that much Ax to the river like this (although maybe it does on that colossal brick turn idk)
yeah looking today, WE should shove river here
block AQ, get value from JJ and below, sometimes fold out KK. If we use JJ or below we'll get called too often with 2nd pair
+ if we're mostly going broke anyway I'd rather sacrifice her as a suicide combo that can fold out better get called by worse
Ah, interesting. I'm ranging villain a fairly condensed range of 99-JJ, some KK, some AK/AQs. I've automatically assumed they're capable of bluffing enough with those combos but that definitely might not be true enough. Presumably from GTO's PoV the pot odds justify the means. It's probably not taking that much Ax to the river like this (although maybe it does on that colossal
Is it impossible to have 66-99 in villains range, 3 betting to isolate the UTG short stack?
Don't these make it to the river and turn into a bluff?
Possibly. Player dependent. I would think as a rule most micro players won't 3b/call those hands enough vs UTG open to attribute it to pool at high freq though.
