TPTK facing donk, turns into a triple barrel

Flop: I normally prefer to raise flop here versus callers from the blinds. This V1 seems capable and clearly knows Hero is Ace-heavy given preflop raise. And he DGAF and leads out anyway. He would probably 3b preflop with a lot of his Ax combos and he probably 3b his 77. Maybe he set-mines his 55.

Turn: V1's small flushes should probably overbet the pot to protect against our flush redraws and our sets, or try to check raise the Q which is H's range card. The 75 is weird sizing. I can't find a fold here with the redraw. The Qd is a very good bluff card for him because it reduces H's better flush combos. But his bluffs should be bigger, as should his small flush turn bets.

River: We get over 2-1 to call. V should take his SDV with weak Ax and 75. He should have overbet turn with most of his flushes and sets. His line is fishy. It's a close spot but I lean toward calling.

I limp the HJ but that's me.

Kinda awkward SPR of ~5 on the flop. Offered meh-to-ok IO of 15:1. Board is drawy. Are we feeling committed or not? It's a borderline case, imo. If we're feeling committed, then I would raise the flop to setup a turn jam on a safe card. If we're not feeling committed, I would call and evaluate.

I can only assume we didn't feel committed due to our flop call. Kinda gross spot on the turn. The diamond draw got there, as did AQ, plus he's still betting a decent size with the pot protected by the gambool gambool guy. Is he really doing this with busted OESD? Or AJ? Kinda doubtful, imo. Even though we have TP and a draw to the nuts, I think for this sizing facing this action you could actually argue for a fold on the turn.

Even the unlikely 64 got there on the river, so we're basically beating a maniacal 86. I actually probably don't get to the river, but I find another fold here.

Overall, I wouldn't read too much into our hand being slightly underepped here cuz noone ever takes this strong a line with AJ.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Yes you have a bluffcatcher in a situation with few natural bluffs and the main flop bluffs turned nutted. There's a decent argument for folding turn, now fold river

Grunch:

PRE - When there are loose-splashy players in the blinds, I'd raise bigger, like $25, but $20 is okay.

FLOP - Think I'd raise this donk, partly on principle, partly because I don't want to give up the betting lead to a capable V. If action checked to us, I'd probably pot it, so when he bets $20 into $60, I'm probably making it $80.

TURN - V's line is FOS. Think I might just jam here. We have the NFD as back up equity if he calls with a better hand.

RIVER - yuck. One of his most likely bluffs (64) gets there. We lose to straights, flushes, 2P and sets. We only beat bluffs, and I'm not sure he actually has any.

I disagree that we gave him rope. We raised pre, called his flop donk, and called his turn barrel for 2/3 pot. Yeah, he could be barreling off, but ace-high boards are typically under-bluffed.

You've already folded to his raises in two previous hands. It seems less likely that he'd decide to run a three-street bluff on you, starting with a flop donk, in a multi-way pot, on an ace-high, two-tone board. If there was ever a spot where you could show up and bluff-catch with a strong hand, this is it.

Think we can just fold here. I'd thank him for not checking, because I would have gone for thin value if he did. If he shows 86s, tap the table and say "well played".

have no idea what he has and line doesnt make much sense to me but id still fold. not actually sure what the worst hand id call otr would be though

How is his line FOS? Two main draws (the flush and AQ) get there and it's possible he had us crushed on the flop.

And what does jamming accomplish against a FOS line?

GcluelessFOSnoobG

This was a big part of my thinking - that he was donking small with a FD and got there on the turn. But I also thought that if he wanted to fast play his FD he might choose to increase his fold equity by going for a check-raise and trapping the fishy player in the middle. I couldn't decide which was more likely... I agree that raising the flop is the standard way to go here.

I don't actually see a lot of overbetting in this game. In my (quite limited) experience people seem to use 2/3 pot when they have thick value more often than overbets. I thought the $75 on the turn signaled strength and was consistent with semi-bluffing flop, and betting turn for value setting up a 2/3 shove on river.

I like the idea of raising bigger w/ looser players in the blinds. I'm quite tight and routinely expect people to over-fold to my large-ish PF opens, but I often end up with multiple callers anyway. I like something that Marc Goone / Hungry Horse says about your image not mattering nearly as much as you think it does - it matters way more what has recently happened to them. Villains are thinking primarily about themselves, not you. That has been pretty accurate in my experience so far in live poker.

Raising the flop "on principle" made me laugh. I don't disagree...I had a reason not to raise (the fishy players still left to act in SB), but I'm not sure that is a good enough reason to deviate from my default here. If I give up the betting lead on the flop, maybe that means I need to buckle up and call down more often. I guess that's what I meant by "giving him rope" - that I didn't raise the flop and instead played both flop and turn passively.

I'm curious what makes his line FOS? You feel it's FOS to donk a FD for the Villain? I thought a jam on the turn would never get called by worse, so I didn't consider it much.

Yeah, on the river I couldn't find any bluffs other than 68s and a random 3-barrel spazz just thinking I'm too weak/tight and will over-fold. And on that note, I've had trouble with thinking Villains are "coming after me" when I get played back at. It's easy to think something personal is going on even with tiny sample sizes. I've yet to really see this confirmed though - most often Villains are just playing their hands rather than coming after the tight player...

I think V's line is FOS from flop to turn because it doesn't really make sense logically.

FLOP - he'd donking for 1/3 pot, multi-way, on an ace-high, two-tone board, in a SRP.

What's he repping for value? 2P or a set? I'd think he'd be more likely to go for a check-raise, or just check-call, since we can have AA for top set, or AX that's going to c-bet a lot, not to mention all the other hands that we might c-bet because ace-high flops favor our range as the PFR.

Is he donking out with some weak AX combo that didn't 3B pre? Why would he donk with what's basically just a bluff-catcher?

What are his bluffs? 86 and 64 for OESD's, plus some flush draws. But he can't have the NFD because we have the Kd in our hand. So he's mostly just got some combo draws, specifically 86dd and 64dd.

How does he know hero isn't going to raise his donk on the flop, and force him to fold? What happens if the SB wakes up with 77, 55, or 75, and check-raises? Does he really want to start a bluff with those combos on the flop, by donking out?

I'm not sure I buy that he's just going to donk out for 1/3 pot with his combo-draws, rather than check-call or check-raise.

TURN - so the Qd appears, completing the FDFD, and he barrels, repping the flush. But hero and SB both called the flop. Presumably either hero or SB could have been drawing to a higher flush.

So if V has 86dd or 64dd, yeah, he makes a flush, but it's not the nut flush, and he might want to check and see what hero does. If he bets and we raise, or the SB check-raises, his 8 or 6 high flush is probably toast.

With the Kd in our hand, we can very credibly rep KJ, KT, and K9 of diamonds, and maybe even some other KXdd combos that were a little OOL opening from the HJ. If he's taking this line with sets or 2P, we have all the AA/QQ and AQ in our range.

I think it's very possible that V is either completely FOS, or he's over-playing some thin value that will fold if we jam turn. If he doesn't fold, we have outs to improve to the nuts.

If we're not going to raise his flop donk or jam turn, then we should just fold turn, because the odds of hitting another diamond on the river and V paying us off with a worse flush are close to nil.

Flop donks when HU are usually weak value hands, and we can just call. When it's multi-way, a donk is usually a "real" hand, but not always, and I'd discount it more when the donk is for a small size on a somewhat wet and connected board.

He's probably not donking out with weak Ax. He's repping 2P+ for value, but I'd think his value hands would bet larger.

This small size smells like a draw that wants to set its own price, but we have the NFD blocker in our hand, and he might 3B pre with some suited connectors, so his most likely draws are going to be S1G combo-draws like 86s and 64s that aren't going to fold if we raise, but also aren't as likely to 3B in a multi-way pot.

If we raise flop and he 3B's, we can safely fold, knowing he's got 2P+, and even if he's just got a combo-draw, he's got so much equity that we're not making a huge mistake. But when we just flat call, we're playing a guessing game on a lot of run-outs, especially when the SB over-calls.

If we're beat, I'd rather find out on the flop, not on the river.

Thank you for all the responses here, really appreciate it.

Flop - Typically I'd raise this small donk bet to 60(?) or so but I wanted to keep the SB in and see what he would do. Maybe that's not enough of a reason to not raise for value here.

Making the decision to allow players with equity to remain in the hand when you have a vulnerable TP can't be the best play unless something about the board/players makes raising ill-advised.

FWIW, a lot of times I get a feeling that an opponent is doing something at the table, without really being able to completely explain why logically. It's just that something about the situation doesn't feel right in the moment. Usually I can go back and figure it out later, but very rarely am I able to work through it all in-game.

That said, when I've gone with that feeling, I've usually been right. I don't know if the logical explanation I gave for thinking V was FOS made sense, and I was somewhat expecting GG or someone else to argue that V's line was credible. But to me, it just isn't. It's FOS, even if I can't be certain why.

If you put a gun to my head, and force an explanation out of me, I'd say good regs (even decent low-stakes regs) aren't going to donk for a small size, multi-way, with a draw. Not even a really good combo draw. They don't want to get raised and have to fold away their equity, or call off and brick out.

But if an opponent did find the balls to take this line on the flop, then I'd expect Mr. Big Balls to over-bet the turn when he makes his hand, not take a dinky 60% pot sizing. Don't tell me he's setting up an easy river jam. I don't buy it.

He's not going to want to risk another diamond or action-killing card dribbling off on the river, and he's going to want to get max value from all our AA/QQ/AQ combos that can't fold top 2P or a set.

To respond to GG's question, the same one you implied, about jamming turn, and what that accomplishes - I guess I see it as fighting f**kery with f**kery.

I don't buy that V has us beat on the turn when he takes this line. But I also don't think V is taking this line with complete air. He's either barreling with a draw (and not a flush draw that got there), or he's got some thin piece of the board that can improve.

Is he going to call a jam with K7hh? I mean...probably not, if he's thinking, but...there would be $448 in the pot, and he'd have to call off another $180. That's almost 2.5 to 1 pot odds, and it's a stupid-wet board with a bazillion possible draws.

If he thinks we're drawing even 40% of the time, I think he might level himself into calling, especially if he thinks his K outs are good (and why wouldn't he, when the Ad and Qd are on board?).

But we don't know he's got K7. He might have AKo or AJ, or A5/A7 that suddenly doesn't love his weak ace or weak 2P when the Q hits the turn and we jam over his barrel. We can get value from worse, or make him fold better.

I don't really care which result we get, when we have 12 outs to make top 2P or a flush, plus another 3 Q's to counterfeit A5/A7. I'll take the 30% equity our 15 outs give us, plus another 10% fold equity to get the 40% we need to make him indifferent.

But, suppose he folds a worse hand. That's fine, if the alternative is we fold the best hand, either on the turn, or (worse), after calling the turn, and then to a river jam.

If we jam, and he folds K7hh face up, show him AsKd, so he knows you're not scared to get stacks in without the nuts, and make him think twice about trying to push you around with his shenanigans.

If some young punk is going to whip out his dick and lay it on the table, I'll break out the sharp cutlery, and make him pay for his audacity.

Pre is fine

Flop you're incentivized to raise with SB in there. I disagree with GG saying this board is drawy. A-7-5FD? You either have an ace or 56s-type thing or you dont. I'm fine with calling the 1/3rd PSB and strining SB along with the Kd in our hand. Without the Kd I'm raising all day.

Turn I'm raising and basically AI. If he has the made flush congrats to him.

River is an obvious call imo.

edit. saw result. gross fold.

We don't have a "vulnerable top pair" we have the immortal top pair - unless there's a 14th card invented that plays higher than an ace and king.

Love all the discussion here, thanks everyone. I have lots to learn.

Is it obvious b/c he's obviously bluffing more than 28% of the time to call profitably? Or obvious b/c he could be taking this line for value with something worse? Or combo of the two?

I viewed my hand as only a bluff catcher at this point and I did think there was a decent chance he was bluffing. I kind of leveled myself into thinking I was just "taking it personally" and "not wanting to get pushed around" and went back to live-low-stakes basics of folding TP to obvious aggression. After thinking about it away from the table, I too think V taking the small donk, bet, bet line just seems fishy taking into consideration the player profile I assigned to him and the configuration of the gamble-y SB in between us. I did get the feeling during the hand that he just thought I was weak/tight and would fold (which he was right about in this hand!).

I was actually a bit surprised several posters here found a fold on the river (or even on turn) like I did in game...It made me feel better about my river decision that at least it was close to other folks as well...

I agree w/ most everyone that I should have just raised the flop and the entire hand plays out differently. If I don't raise the flop, I'm keeping in his spazz bluffs and may have to make uncomfortable calls later in the hand.

LOL I like your style docvail. Your responses make me laugh in a good way. It's so different from my comfort zone at the table, but I think I could add a lot to my game getting out of my comfort zone.

I'm only ~170 hours into my live-low-stakes poker re-entry (after 10+ years of playing zero poker) and I am not yet at a place where I'm confident with trusting my gut. Not enough pattern recognition built up yet...

My bread and butter right now is simply playing tight, value betting heavily, and folding to aggression.

OP, I wouldn't get too side tracked by the results of this hand. If this is what a huge percentage of players are doing all the time in your pool, then it will be something you'll have to be concerned about and address. Otherwise, take notice how often you see someone take a line like this; my guess (at least, one based on my experience in my game) is that it is unlikely you see it again this year.

GnexthandpleaseG

Thanks GG, appreciate that.

Tortillarilla - do you think you have any tells or a table image that could have encouraged this V to try this play against you?

One of the interesting biases we have ITT is that we collectively spend way more time discussing "reads" and V styles than on analyzing what our image might be and how it impacts the lines Vs are taking against us. This makes sense, because we have data points or at least anecdotes about Vs, but we have no objective analysis of our own images. That said, it's still an under-analyzed issue here I think.

The default analytical framework often here is: "oh at this level (live low stakes NLHE) Vs are rarely paying attention etc". In my experience, the better Vs are almost always paying attention unless drunk or otherwise distracted.