check raise on turn on 3 bet pot
PokerStars 5NL 9max ring game (not zoom)
Hero BTN (103.6BB) A♦️A♣️
Preflop (1.5BB)
+1 (106.8BB) raises to 2BB
Hero raises to 7BB
+1 calls
Flop (15.5BB) 5♣️3♣️2♦️
+1 checks
Hero bets to 6BB
+1 calls
Turn (27.5BB) 8❤️
+1 checks
Hero bets to 20BB
+1 raises to 53BB
Hero ??
Should I fold against this check-raise? The VPIP of +1 player is about 15 ~ 20%. I didn't see his bluff, but I don't know whether he bluffs.
4 Replies
I don't see that flop sizing inducing many bluffs or light calls. Think we should size up to get more value from a pocket pair, flush draw, or Ax.
Turn check raises are statistically two-pair or better like 95% of the time. Confirmed it myself through database analysis years ago. It comes from a very old piece of theory known as "The Baluga Theorem".
https://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/th...
You need about 25% equity vs his raising range in order break even on the call. Is he underbluffing and doing this more than 75% of the time with 2 pair or better? Is he doing this with flush draws? Unless villain is severely underbluffing I would call. You don't have to be a favorite in order for the call to be profitable.
What is the sample size like on the player? Turns are still underbluffed in general and virtually never bluffed by <18vpip type players. I doubt they would play a FD like this + you block a lot of them anyway. The sizing makes me suspicious too.
However its 5nl and if the sample is small we don't want too many big folds, especially as they wouldn't need many QQ/JJ to make this a profitable call.
You need about 25% equity vs his raising range in order break even on the call. Is he underbluffing and doing this more than 75% of the time with 2 pair or better? Is he doing this with flush draws? Unless villain is severely underbluffing I would call. You don't have to be a favorite in order for the call to be profitable.
This is only true if villain jammed? I think villain still has ~30bb right? So isn't it realistically shove/fold here? Does 99-QQ click back here against a 4bet and continued aggression? So you're shoving against the draws that call a 4bet....
