JJ calls 3! at 1/3 shallow and 664,r flop

I think calling feels best.

The small c-bet in position is likely just a range bet. It doesn't indicate anything about his hand strength.

The default action would be to just call with our over-pair. If V is good, I'd expect a big bet on the turn, and we'll have to decide how much we like our hand.

There is an argument to be made for check -raising here. This 664rb board isn't likely to connect with his hand. It probably doesn't connect with ours, either, but we'll likely have more 6x or 44 than he will, at least in theory, if not reality.

More relevant than who connects with the board more is the range analysis. His 3B range is probably going to have more unpaired over-cards in it, compared to ours, which should be more heavily weighted towards PP's.

If we would 4B better than JJ pre, then when we flat call the 3B, we're capping our range, such that JJ the best starting hand we can have here. So if we check raise, we're saying we have an over-pair to the board, or we made a light call pre, and flopped trips or a boat. We really shouldn't have any draws like 53 or 75 when we start so shallow.

V probably won't give us credit for a boat, but he's probably not going to be excited to play for stacks with all his un-paired hands, and we're putting hands like 77-TT in the blender.

All that said, we're not all that deep. It would suck to check raise, have him 3B, and be pot-stuck when we're very likely dominated by a higher PP. Flat calling and evaluating the turn is fine. If we do check raise, I think we should probably just raise small, like $100, leaving us $125 behind, with plans to jam all brick turns.

Your read is that he might be pro, so a small bet in GTO is over 70% on this type of flop, which most pros will simplify to 100%. One 3! in an hour is below average, but it isn't a large sample size and could just indicate a dry spell. So if our read is thus player has a basic understanding of modern poker theory, we should assume that he is using a 3! range is roughly based on GTO charts.

We can't fold. Absent a read that V only 3! JJ-AA, we must continue against a small bet. This is because against a super tight range of JJ-AA + AK, we have about 40% equity vs his range. We only need 20% to make this call. In reality, if our read is accurate, Vs range is a lot wider. We did raise UTG, so if we have a tighter image, maybe V is 3! about 5% of hands, in that case our hand has about 55% equity against his range. We are a favorite and want to gii.

So folding is clearly wrong because we have enough equity against even a very tight range and no real reason to believe Vs range is that strong. V 3! and then bet small, those actions only narrow his range to 5%ish, a range we are a favorite against.

I dislike x/r, because it narrows Vs range. V is never folding better and might fold hands like two overs. The most merit it x/r is for protection. But with no real draws, there are only 12 cards we really don't want to see on the turn. I'd be more inclined to x/r with TT or 99.

That leads to calling. OTT, our plan should be to x/jam most cards. V bet small OTF so our range is wide too. That will compel V to bet frequently OTT. If he is pro, I'd expect most turns to be bet with a huge chunk of his range and when we jam he's priced in with two overs. He might just jam to get max fold equity with a hand like KQ because you have a lot of Ax in your range too.

In short, I believe our goal is to gii. X/r looks stronger and will push out more hands. If we can set up a x/r OTT, we can get stacks in more frequently against a larger (and weaker) portion of his range. If he has QQ-AA, we're just beat and we're paying off. Whether we do it now or OTT doesn't really matter.

We are never folding this flop, if you ever wanted to fold maybe preflop.

Just check/call and evaluate.

If you consider folding to a 1/3 pot size bet on this board, you might as well fold JJ preflop.

For me this is a textbook example of calling and playing some poker on the turn. I don't see the point of raising his small bet on the flop. He is going to give up his bluffs and continue with bigger pairs. Conversely, he might bluff at scare cards on the turn or pick up a flush draw that he is willing to commit to.

Yamihere wrote.

What about V checking back flop? If he has no pairs most players will check. If he has a big pocket pair checking back will keep the pot small and maybe induce crying calls on the river.

So, I like the idea of flatting to check jam most turns. I assume any turn that isn't an over-card to our J's.

That said, I don't think we should discount x/r'ing the flop too quickly. If we give V a 3B range that includes 77+, some AX, and some suited connectors, we really don't know what turn cards help him. He might call a flop raise with 99/TT, or A5s with a BDFD, or AKs, thinking he's chopping or flipping.

It actually seems like a pretty close spot, and I don't think it's a huge mistake to x-jam on the flop, to minimize our positional disadvantage against a good opponent. When V uses this small c-bet sizing, it forces us to continue with a wide range, but it also allows him to see the turn with a wide range, and realize his equity more cheaply.

If we just check jam flop for $190, V will be getting 2:1 on a call. It'll be hard for him to fold 77-TT or his unpaired overs getting such a price.

If we raise to $100, he'll be getting 3:1, with our turn jam laying him 2.3:1. It'll be even harder for him to fold flop to that small raise size, and he might just want to get the rest in now, rather than take a chance he'll have to fold turn to a jam.

Yes, he'll call with all the hands that beat us, but he could also call with a lot of hands we beat, and even if he folds out worse, we're denying a ton of equity from hands that could improve to beat us, when we have a hand that is very difficult to improve.