Am I overbluffing if I shove this spot with 9-high?

So MP is probably spewfish. Against such specific player, we probably should just play linear 3 betting ranges instead of going with speculative hands like 89s. When he's spewing so much, we just want to get the money in good.

Flop probably check back or bet small vs him.

Turn I don't hate shoving but he probably snap w/ any pair, fd, even st8d like 9t, tk, at type hands. So just check back and pray that we hit on the river.

Against this type of player, just try to ship it in when you have any decent hand.

I don't like the somewhat chunky flop bet, especially against someone who wants to gamble when we're drawing to a gutter to make the idiot end of the straight...when he could easily have AK and was too battle-scarred to reraise it preflop.

I'd probably range bet $30ish.

Thanks for the feedback. In-game, I decided that I would be "polar" on this type of flop, where it's so easy for even loose-passives to find XR bluffs. I figured that I would use a larger size and bet only strong made hands, high-equity draws that don't mind to bet-GII, and low-equity draws (like 98hh) that don't mind to bet-fold. I am not sure that this is the "correct" strategy though, and agree that range bet could be better.

I strongly agree with your first point. I knew that I wanted to 3b this kid a LOT, but, in hindsight, I would much rather 3b a hand like 77 than 98s.

To your second point, I think the worst part about potentially shoving here is that villain will likely call with a lot of dominating A-high and K-high flush draws. That being said, I think this particular villain shows up with a lot of bad, one-pair hands and some suited junk that will still (hopefully?) find the fold facing an overbet jam...

line / logic dont make much sense. might still work but obviously u have less fe ott when u choose this size vs 1/4. think pre is not great immediately but maybe he overfolds post given villain and i think trying to make him fold pairs ott is torching when theres a bunch of broadway gutters and 2 fd present. if you're trying to fold like bottom pair and 7 high fds or whatever i dont think you need to jam 1.5x pot lol.

would just bet small otf if i got there this way and probably x turn but at least betting small and leaving 3 streets / wider range lets u barrel low equity stuff

im also very unconvinced "even loose passives find 3b bluffs" otf in 3b pots anywhere let alone 2 bway boards

It might still be a torch, but my thought-process going into the turn is that villain will have lots of hands like 77 - TT and JTs, Q9s, ATcc, etc. that will consider folding to a 1.25x jam. Maybe those hands shouldn't fold on such a draw-heavy board in theory, but in practice I don't see many people calling them in these games.

My point was about XR bluffs and this board has at least 7 obvious combo-draw XR candidates (ATss, KTss, K9ss, T9ss, 98ss, A6ss, 76ss) plus the other A-high flush draws and SD/BDFD hands that all make intuitive bluffs. I don't think I would want to cbet AK no BDFD, for instance? But again, I might be thinking about the flop in the wrong way and it could be a pretty clear range bet...

This is a very wet board. He can have all sorts of draws and put you on a draw. Probably better to check back the turn.

98s is a much better hand to 3! than 77, because you pick up draws to semibluff with. By 3! linearly, he probably meant like AQ/TT. You don't need to be 3-betting light in 1/2. That being said, there are better flops, which favor your apparent range of JJ+/AK, which you can bluff on after 3-betting this.

Why is the choice between bluffing and giving up Ott? I don't see a check as giving up on the bluff, because you can bluff almost any river. The problem is that on the turn V could call you down with any flush draw, and even the mid-pocket pairs you are targeting might get sticky and call because V might believe you are on a flush draw yourself.

Let the river roll off and suddenly A lot of hands that might have called on the turn, are going to have a heck of a time finding a call. On some rivers you might be able to get away with a much smaller size bluff. If I draw completes, and he checks then you can jam if you believe he is not going to check his strong hands frequently enough. Which I would say that most players are going to over bet if they hit the river after it goes check check on the turn.

If he blasts away at the river, then he probably had a hand that was going to snap off your bluff anyway and he just let you off the hook.

As for the flop, I don't hate the big bet strategy. I think the small bet is way overplayed and too many people use it as a default. So mixing in some big bets on flops will lead to lines that many in your typical casino will make huge errors on. There is a lot of virtue on this. Flop to bet big with hands like QQ, AQ etc. And you should have a decent amount of high equity bluffs that are happy to play big pots.

But I think with the lower ends on your range, when you are making a low equity bluff, you want to be careful not to barrel off too often. You have some hands like AJ that would be happiest with a bet/check/bluff catch or thin value bet line. Your lower equity bluffs probably want to mimic that portion of your range and target his draws that miss.

I think I just call this pre - this is a hand you want to go multi way as when you hit a hand you're going to print money. The iso is ok I guess but you'll be bluffing a lot postflop against a player base that's very stationy - I think at 1/2 most of the money is made against stations who can't fold. This hand is a perfect example - we get to the turn luckily turning a double gutter but are going to have to jam here and pray he folds. I'd rather iso a hand like A4s that has zero value multiway than 89s.

Pre-flop I think call, fold, and squeeze are all viable here. In position against someone that opens light, I'm OK with squeeze but I don't love this spot.

On the turn, I think this is a good check back spot. One of the benefits of being in position is you are often able to choose to take a free card. I think this is a good spot to do that. A T or a 7 give you a thick value hand. An A or a K provide an excellent bluffing spot. An 8 or a 9 gives you legit SDV. Another benefit of checking back is that you will get more info about V's hand. If he checks river on a blank, you can go for a cheaper bluff to target a weak range (AK, AT, missed draw, weak pair). Bet/check/bet is kind of uncomfortable, but I think you can rep AJ/KJ/QTs with this line.

This is a spot where it is really easy for your opponent to assign you a bluff (two flush draws plus "I put you on AK"). It is also a spot where you can get called by a better draw that has you in horrible shape (ATss, ATdd, T9ss, T9dd, KTss, KTdd, QXdd, JXdd). Similarly, it is a spot where you have so many higher equity draws to choose to bluff jam with.

That said, I don't think bluff jam is horrible because Villain obviously has hands that will fold (some players might even overfold here) and you always have equity when called.

This is a fish logic, since this is true of nearly any two cards. However, when people start piling in money on a board where you have 98s, you're often going to be overflushed or overstraighted.

ok but he's more likely to continue the weaker parts of his range the smaller you bet on the flop (this is good if you decide you want to put in money later, and likely the smaller bet will show similar / more ev since u need him to fold less to break even). the check raise candidates you listed don't really matter because they're all going to continue anyways if you bet big on the flop and you have extremely little equity vs them. i dont really get what him deciding to possibly check call the nfd does for you, you have 9 high and minimal barreling opportunities and idk maybe 18% vs his range generously?

as for trying to bluff him off a queen or a jack or whatever, you have a guy already playing super loose before he got stacked and likely tilting.

i didnt even see the initial 3b was a squeeze vs this guy and loose passive fish, lol. i dont really think you have the required fold equity to do this pre and you're just going to play bloated pots w 9 high

i still think your plan here should be to 3b linearly with hands that dominate him if hes playing 40+% of hands (think kjo not suited connectors), but if you want to bluff him i would try to take advantage of how much of his range just cannot continue vs any sizinig and bet tiny on the flop and then size up on later streets (on every texture not just this one).

even this hand, just kind of eyeballing it, if you go slightly less than half you leave around 1/2 psb otr. i think that's better as you can potentially fold out draws that brick, maybe u hit, maybe scare card comes, blah blah. rare you see ip with a polar range try to end the hand on an earlier street if theres room for multiple

FWIW, Marc Goon espouses the opposite opinion, that your typical low-limit rec/reg is going to make more mistakes on the flop when facing checks and smaller bets versus facing chunky bets.

"fish logic" lol - you really don't know what you're talking about. 89s has little inherent value - there's no blockers, you rarely make top pair - it has great playability multi way where in low stakes live games all the money is made by value betting. A4s plays terribly multi way - you have a blocker, can make top pair, always have outs to make top pair, and sometimes you can showdown and win. Saying 89s and A4 should be played the same is sort of silly - there's major differences in how these hands play out postflop.

Sure, if you're playing $5/$10 on the West Coast where Vs are going to be somewhat aggressive. We're playing $1/$2 on a Saturday afternoon on the East Coast with a $2/$5 game currently running that has probably siphoned off the more aggressive players. And Goon's idea of a "small" bet is half pot, so his base strategy would bet $44 here, that's a good bit different than many of the YouTubers are calling "small" these days. Though I'm not sure Goon's base strategy would be best in a mid-day $1/$2 game when a bigger game is running.

IME, $1/$2 players are much more apt to be more passive and just call with their strong stuff and their draws, and less likely to play back at you than someone playing $2/$5 - $5/$10. They'll be super sticky on the flop with top pair or FD and call almost any bet then fold on future streets to even small bets if they don't improve or a scary card comes out. So if they aren't going to play back as much, the logical adjustment to make is to bet larger when there is a draw and make them pay more for their draws, and get them to call a chunkier bet with a weak top pair that you might be able to get to fold later. So a strategy to bet larger on a wet, dynamic board is one that I think is perfectly reasonable if it is intentional and you have a good plan for how you are going to handle future streets with your value and bluffs.

You say you are "the most aggressive player at the table". How do you think the Vs here view you. You have given multiple examples of them calling/raising with hands that should fold but not a single example of them folding too easily. Have they been folding too often to aggression or are your examples of them calling too often an accurate depiction of their style of play? If they call too often plays that rely on FE to make them profitable are negative ev vs these players.

I'll add: you block 88 and 99, hands you'd love to fold out

I probably play something resembling 25/20 VPIP/PFR and am the only player at the table 3betting non-nuts, basically. I think it's possible that the only other re-raise at the table in the last 90 minutes was the aforementioned 4b shove with AA. V in this hand probably knows enough about poker via vlogs and live streams to know that my surface-level stats are decent, but I think lots of players view me as either A.) too tight, because I fold so many hands preflop, relative to the crowd at least, or B.) too maniacal, because they genuinely believe that most hands should be called preflop and not raised.

To be honest, I don't have any big postflop reads on this specific V and was going off of a general observation I have made about the population that they over-defend marginal pairs and broadways preflop and have difficulty hanging on with second- and third-pair hands when the money starts going in. That might not be an accurate observation though, and we know that weaker players love to see flops, turns, and rivers in general.

Most really good players are wary of playing 98s too aggressively. It's known as a "trouble hand", because it so often gets over-straighted or over-flushed. I'd rather have a lower SC that is "in its own lane" - less likely to make a strong but 2nd best hand.

Case in point here - we need to spike a T or 7 that hopefully isn't a spade or diamond, and even if it's the Tc or Th, we still lose to AK. So we're really praying to spike one of two off-suit 7's.

Aside from our specific hand, part of the problem with this line is that we're only starting out $325 deep. Another problem is we have three players who have shown interest in the hand. If we want to rep a big hand, we should probably take a much larger size with our 3B pre. At a minimum, make it $50, but I might actually go $60, just to make sure we don't get any light calls.

The flop is so wet, I don't know how much of our opponent's flatting range we can expect to fold out, no matter how much we c-bet. Even if V gives us credit for JJ+ pre, all of his best draws have enough equity to continue vs a big c-bet, and he might decide to just check-jam.

As weak as it looks, I think we can just check back on the flop and see a turn.

Over-bet jamming turn when we pick up the double-gutter is an interesting option. I'd like it better against a more competent opponent who is capable of laying down TP, and who probably isn't getting here with 2P+. I'd also like it much better if we had a flush draw to go with our double-gutter, or even a pair + a draw.

If our read on V is that he's bad, and possibly tilted, I wouldn't try to make this play pre, or take this line post, or jam here. He could call with Qx, or any draw, and win with AXs or KT on a brick.

I'm often the most aggro player at the table, and IME, my semi-bluff shoves get called a lot.

Results behind the spoiler tag:

Im going like 40 flop, 70 turn, probably jam river depending on reads and runout.

Overbet shove at 1/2 or 1/3 is ALWAYS a draw lol

Also you ran into a big hand, what can ya do? Just keep blasting.

You’ve described the villain as ‘not very good’ and the implication from your prior hand is that he doesn’t like folding?

“Make hands get paid” is the mantra vs these guys surely?
After all, as someone once said - you can’t bluff idiots