Massive flop x/r + live tell w/ KK

Massive flop x/r + live tell w/ KK

1/3 NLHE 9 handed

Just switched tables because this one is doing double straddles and seems like more action, people deeper as well. We just sat down with 600$. This is our first hand dealt in.

V - Complete unknown MAWG. Doesn't know me either. Covers.

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UTG straddles 6, UTG+1 double straddles 12 (gets option), 3 people limp 12 to us in CO and we open K K to 75. Only V calls in SB. HU IP.

Flop ~200 (525 back) - T 9 5

V checks, we bet 125, V check jams fairly quickly...

We start looking at him, he didn't even seem to look at how much we had back in green chips, I count out how much I have and while I'm counting he's almost shaking, I say "what do you have? Tens?" and he says "A really big draw" and his voice is cracking. I make him wait a bit while I think and he seems visibly uncomfortable...

22 March 2025 at 10:26 AM
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10 Replies


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Think you have to call it off here, regardless of any tells. SPR is low and Villain can conceivably jam worse hands for value (AT, JJ). Plus there are tons of semi-bluffs that will be easy and intuitive to find for most players.


Well, if he has a combo draw like QdJd, you're a coin flip, so it's a snap call.


The shaking and saying big draw seems like a tell for a big made hand like a set. Shaking usually indicates strength.

You are getting about 2.2-1, so I don't see how you can fold this though. You are almost getting odds to call if you knew he had T9s. I assume you called.


PRE - raise bigger, like $100, or even $120.

You're in late position. People are likely to think you're just trying to steal it. We don't want to give anyone anywhere near the correct IO to set-mine or call with some BS SC. We'd like to get stacks in now if we can. If someone does call, we want the SPR to be low, so we can play a two street game post flop.

It's weird that SB flats with three uncapped ranges still to act, and all those limpers. He's super incentivized to 3B or fold. Makes me wonder if he's sandbagging something big.

FLOP - think we can c-bet slightly bigger, like $175, or even $200, to set up an easy turn jam.

Once he x/r's, I don't see how we can fold, regardless of any tells, unless we pick up something super strong and very reliable. We need an extreme reason to make an extreme deviation.

He's not supposed to have sets or draws here. I'd be somewhat likely to believe he was sandbagging pre with AA, hoping someone would 4B so he could back-jam, and now he's just check-jamming on a "safe" flop. But smooth calling would be borderline insane here, with six people behind him left to act.

If he really does have a draw, the best would be QJdd, which means we're holding two of his straight outs, and even if he spikes a K, we can still boat up. If he has 87dd, and spikes a J, we can still river a Q.

As for the tells, the shaky hand tell is usually strength, but sometimes it's nerves or fake. It's hard to fake a cracking voice and looking uncomfortable. If someone says what they have, I'm inclined to believe them, because they might worry that if they lie it will sound like a lie.

If he out-flopped us, or sucks out, nice hand, good game.


Seems like a pretty easy snap off call here. As played I think your pre is fine to not over bet scare off any callers. Probably AKdd or AQdd worst case double draw QJdd, but either way I think you have to call this off.


by docvail

Makes me wonder if he's sandbagging something big.

This was my thought exactly - maybe this is AA that wants to see a 'clean' flop.


Result:

Spoiler
Show

I call, guy has QJ , turns an 8


by Stupidbanana

Result:

Spoiler
Show

I call, guy has QJ , turns an 8

So, he's terrible. You out-played him, and got your money in good. He just sucked out. That's poker. The takeaway should be how to improve leading up to your final decision.

If you raise bigger pre, he may not call with QJ. Yes, that means we lose value from him, but if he folds, there are still 6 other opponents to get through, so maybe one of them would call.

If you bet pot or close to it on the flop, he may be less likely to check-jam. If he does, it's a pretty standard stack off, and nothing to think about.


snap call

instajam is often weakness

sets think a bit, because they wanna consider if they should slowplay or not

top pair and draws often instajam because they are like whatever send me home


I think all the reads go both ways ...

shaking is adrenaline and can be fear of calls; fear of folds; anticipation of gamble; anticipation of getting it in crushing

people with 55 will see a 5 and not care about the other two cards or ranges or whatever and snap shove.
Dito. T9 and seeing both of those.

people with QdJd or some other draws can see the flop and snap shove knowing they have equity

Even recently saw a guy snap donk shove A5o UTG on 765 for 2-3x pot when I raised limpers preflop, and he gave a talk when an A hit the river about how this was the best hand he'd seen for ages and assumed I had two big cards.

Main points I'd think about would be:

We don't need to bet this much on this flop with this hand at this SPR.
Eg. if he calls it'll be 400 into 450 on the turn, which is slightly bad for his draws and he'll more likely call but if we bet 80 on the flop and shove turn it'll be 445 into 360 and now all his draws are much worse if they call. Plus we lose less when he hits turn.
Also 80 makes it easier for him to call Tx or even worse assuming you don't have an overpair.

2 SPR and overpair unblocking all draws is just a call without very good reads

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