Am I ever finding an exploitative fold here with flopped top two (AKo)?

Am I ever finding an exploitative fold here with flopped top two (AKo)?

NL30 6max, 100 eff.

UTG (villain) opens 2bb.

MP (hero) 3bet to 7bb with AKo.

SB call.

UTG call.

Flop: A, K, J rainbow.

SB check, UTG check.

Hero bet small, something like 2 or 3bb. I know I block top two so I probably just get a lot of folds here, but I hate checking through multi-way and seeing a Q or T on the turn.

SB folds.

UTG shoves ~90bb.

I immediately felt sick and assumed he had QT and flopped the nuts.

What else could he have for 'value'? JJ surely, AJ, KJ maybe, and AK also. I don't put KK or AA in here given he didn't 4bet with the SB cold caller.

I actually give very little credit to bluffs here, but only things I can think of are QQ, AQ, AT, maybe KQ? TT?

I groan call and he shows KK. Of course I lose the run-out.

Is folding here absolutely out of the question? I genuinely gave it some consideration. It seems like he has an exploit on me where he knows a ton of my 3bet range has hands that have to call him off, and only really one hand (AA) that crushes him. He probably doesn't put QT in my 3bet range. And he doesn't want my draw and pair hands like AQ and AT get free cards.

Given that I know he has KK and potentially AA in his 3bet call range, am I more likely to find a fold here?

Side info (ignore if not interested in my vent): After ~100k hands of 10bb/100 winning at NL10 I recently moved up to NL30 and having been getting hammered by hand after hand like this. I think I'm like -20bb/100 after ~10k hands, while my all-in adjusted line is at +$50. I assume I'm running atrociously bad and just need to stick it out, but I'm very strict about bankroll and will need to move back down to NL10 if I don't improve. All help is appreciated.

17 March 2025 at 03:34 PM
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I prefer 2/3 bet on this flop multiway. Very rare a fish is ever bluffing with that shove so I think fold is fine.


Really impossible to say b/c you gave no reads and no stats. If the guy was nitty I'd say you can fold. You have 36% equity vs JJ, AK. Throw in a couple combos of QTs and you're at 31%. You need 43% equity to call. This is a board that smacks you and yet he's still shoving. That usually means they're at the top of their range. You made it harder on yourself by betting so small that AJ/KJ might feel compelled to shove just for protection purposes.

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