1/3 River sizing vs nit with trips

We have 310 back and pot is 200. We are targeting overpairs that would call 3 barrels when we have the strongest overpairs (ie V’s bluff catchers). I would bet 100-125 and fold to a shove.

I like a bet of $150, but never folding unless he will shove only w/ the nuts. (He should never have clubs. The only hand he should have that beats us is 33.)

What do you think V shoves facing a preflop raise and 3 barrels that H beats?

That's my point. The only hand he can have is 33, so I don't think he's shoving. If he does, I still might call. It's such a huge cooler.

However, OP knows him better than we do. Will he shove AA/KK/QQ?

I'm prolly betting ~1/2 PSB and folding to a shove.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Lol no he is never shoving overpairs on top. He even checks back st8s/flushes ip on river pair board saying boats are out there, rofl.

Villain never bluff checkshoving river. He only shows up w/boats if he does.

Then bet $150 and I guess you can fold to a shove. I like the bigger bet, though, because of your bluffs.

PRE - Seems a bit loose if it's a splashy home game and V tends to over-defend his straddle, but w/e.

FLOP - If we know V is stationy post, I think we can size up for value here, and bet 1/2 pot to 2/3 pot.

TURN - Sucks if V has 56 or 44, but that seems unlikely. Think I'd probably pot it, but I don't hate a smaller size, like 2/3 pot to set up a river jam.

RIVER - Ehhhh...I think V is going to have some slow-played straights, some rivered flushes, some 88, some 55-66, some AX, some total air, etc. Even if he's too tight-passive pre, I'd still think he'd want to 3B some big PP's from the straddle when the BB calls, so I wouldn't be giving him a ton of over-pairs here.

With $310 remaining, if we're snap-folding to a x/r, I think I might just bet $80, and pray he tank-calls.

Hm...you jammed on your st8 paired river hand, I thought you would say jam the river here vs villain who caught hero bluffing for huge sizes before. I think villain has more boats then st8s, he is more stationy with his made hands and is cautious of paired board with a gutshot, that is very small portion of his range. He was cautious of river pairing with nutted flush/st8 and doesn't thin value saying there are boats out there!

Interesting you would bet so big on flop/turn just because villain is a bit stationy for value. I just try to balance my range with my sizes with my cbets, I mean betting big when hit then small with air is easy to catch on. Also I was actually afraid he had slowplayed boats until the river. By betting small, it allows villain to put in check/raises with his stronger ranges, and no villain never thin values.

I was OOP, you're IP. You flopped a strong hand. I was bluffing on the flop. My hand improved to be very strong on the turn, and then got down-graded on the river. Yours got down-graded on the turn and again on the river. On the river, my hand blocked a lot of my opponent's value, and his bluffs. Your hand doesn't block either.

My guy seemed to be pretty tight pre and tight-aggro post. Yours sounds nitty pre, loose-passive post. I was targeting about 90% of his range for value. You're targeting a much narrower range.

You have a 1.5 SPR getting to the river. I had a 1 SPR. I was never folding if I bet 1/4 pot and got 3:1 odds to call off a jam. You're talking about snap-folding if you bet small and get raised.

The hands aren't really that similar.

I prefer to bet bigger on early streets with strong but vulnerable hands when my opponents are likely to call too wide, and then slow down and play cautiously if our hand gets downgraded on later streets.

You took small sizing on flop and turn, so V can get to the river with a lot more hands. If you bet bigger on flop and turn, V's continuing range gets more condensed towards hands that were strong enough to call flop and turn, but less likely to have improved in some way on the river.

So he should have more calls, fewer raises here, when you bet larger on prior streets, and fewer calls, more raises when you bet smaller.

Like, if you bet 2/3 pot on the flop and full pot on the turn, he'll have all the over-pairs that were too stubborn to fold, some 33, and some turned straights with 65 (maybe), or a turned boat with 44, but he shouldn't be chasing a flush draw or boating up with 87 very often. His flopped trips and straights won't like the turn, and should start raising some.

When you bet 1/3 pot on flop and 1/2 on turn, he should still be raising his trips and straights, at least sometimes, but he's going to be calling with his flush draws and lower over-pairs that didn't 3B pre, like 88/99, and maybe TT/JJ. Maybe he has some 66/55, but doubtful those hands are calling, unless he thinks you're totally FOS.

So he just gets to this river with a wider range. Some of that range will fold to our small bet, some of it will call, and some of it will raise. If he thinks you're over-bluffing, and polar here, he shouldn't be raising with worse for value. Like, even if he has 76s, and didn't x/r flop or turn for some reason, how can he raise when you could have higher trips, a flush, or a boat?

If we know we're folding to a raise, and can only target a narrow range for value with a bet, I would just bet half pot or a little less, and not worry about inducing him to spaz raise with a hand we beat, since he doesn't sound capable, and our image is going to make him think we're polar, even if we bet small.

Hope that helps.

Grunch:

I think I dislike your sizing on all post flop streets. Bet bigger. 773r flop is dry af, you have the range/nuts adv so you get to bet frequently and for larger sizing.

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Huh? How does a CO open-raiser have a range or nut advantage on this flop over two callers in the blinds?

Betting large on the flop is guaranteed to get both players to fold, since Hero has a stranglehold on the board, unless tight Villain is only calling raises PF with premium pairs. Stacks aren't that deep, so it's easy enough to get stacks in without blasting the flop.

The way I viewed it was for your hand, your villain's range was pretty tight as well. He had like no bluffs in his range, the way you described his plays, he's folding literally everything to you on the flop check/raise. His range becomes sets/2pairs and overpairs. Once the 8 comes, when you barrel, he's folding lots of his overpairs, what's left is his sets/2pairs chasing to boat up. He folded top2 to your first hh on the turn to your checkraise. He's either giving you too much credit or super tight imho. So his range was weighted heavily towards sets/2pairs, rarely some random 9x/4x, and very rarely still calling with overpairs on the turn. So jamming against this range seems spewy.

My hand here, opponent's range is overpairs heavy, some 7x, and some boats and super rarely st8s/bdflush, he's literally trying to bluffcatch. During the hand I only betted for 130, he tank called and mucked, he was bewildered to see I had a 7. In retrospect, during the hand I was too worried about getting owned by his boats range which should be a small portion. After the hand I felt I was missing alot of value especially Hero got caught overbet bluffed river before vs him. Yes it might be a little thin, might even get a fold but I think it's slightly better than betting normal sizes vs him specifically. Vs other opponents probably just normal sizes is fine.

I disagree with your range-reading in both hands, which is going to lead us to different conclusions about both hands. Not really much point in re-hashing the logic used in either.

You're at the table, and presumably know your opponent better than what we can glean from a short description. If you're confident in your read, go with it.

That said, if your plan really was to bet-fold to a check-jam, then I think it's worth taking a hard look at your sizing relative to the pot and remaining stack depth, regardless of what we think his range is for calling vs jamming, if we're just never calling a jam, because we don't think he's ever jamming worse for value or bluffing.

The pot is $200, and you have $310 behind. Betting $130 into $200, and folding for another $180 seems like a spew. If all we're doing is hoping to get some thin value from his bluff-catchers, we can size down and bet 1/3 to 40% pot. I think that sort of line - 1/3 flop, 1/2 turn, 1/3-1/2 river is going to get called a lot, because it looks like you're bluffing but unwilling to commit.

Like, betting 2/3 pot there doesn't look all that bluffy. It looks like value. If you want to look like you're bluffing, either bet around 1/2 pot, or jam for 1.5x pot.

If, on the other hand, you think you can get light calls from the bulk of his range, because your image is bluffy, you can go bigger, whatever size you think he'll call. If he's bewildered to see you had a 7, odds are he would have called a larger bet, perhaps full pot or an over-bet.

Thought about this more - since he tank-called but then mucked, what sort of hand do you think he had?

Maybe this is faulty reasoning, but if V chooses to slow-play his big PP's pre, and play them as bluff-catchers post, because he has you pegged as an over-bluffer, then it seems odd that he'd tank before calling, rather than just snap-calling.

I get that the 8c brings in a flush draw, but it's a BDFD. You were the PFR, and c-bet into two opponents on a board that wouldn't seem to favor the PFR's range, and doesn't connect very well with very many big flush draw combos, other than those ace-wheel combos that also have some optimistic backdoor straight draws.

If we think he's got a big PP, presumably he'd see the turn 4 adds the BDFD, and he'd want to at least consider donking or check-raising the turn, for value and protection.

If he's remotely competent, I'd think he'd be more likely to check-call with the PP's that have a club in them, such that it would be less likely you made a flush on the river, not more likely, and he could more easily call on a river club.

Since 65 was a straight on the turn, I wonder if he called very light, with 66 or 55 with one club, blocking both straight and flush combos. That seems more plausible to me than him flatting pre with 99+ when the BB has already called your $20 open.

V range doesn't change with the tank/call. He was in a dilemma for a minute or two asking why I bet so big.
V has slowplayed big PP pre before multiple times, out of position as well with 1 other caller as well. Not sure if it's vs me only. I've seen him 3bet but dunno what is his 3bet range when he's only flatting KK/JJ/88 vs me oop.
Donk nor check/raising isn't his play without the nuts, he's overly cautious of pair boards, he doesn't thin value. In order for him to come out betting, I must have check the previous street.
At the end of the day, he's a station postflop, plays his hands mostly face up.
Yes, calling light w/66 or 55 is possible but just not sure if he can bluff catch 3streets with a big bet on the river.

He sounds pretty bad if he's taking this line with all the over-pairs to the board. If he raises pre, this hand doesn't go down this way.