NL100: SB 3-bets Turn, I Jam—Run It Twice for 300BB Pot
Playing NL100, 149BB (Hero) vs. 159BB (Villain). SB (villain) opens to 3BB, I flat in BB with K♣3♣.
Flop comes 4♣ Q♥ 7♥, villain checks, I check back.
Turn is 2♣, bringing a backdoor flush draw. Villain fires 8.7BB, I click it back to 17.3BB. He 3-bets to 48.2BB, and I rip it for 146BB. He snap calls with K♠Q♣.
We agree to run it twice. Pot is 296BB. Rivers come 6♣ J♣, and I scoop the whole thing.
I had played many hands against this rec before and knew he loved overbetting and re-raising to steal pots. I was 100% sure my jam was correct based on his tendencies. I had ~35% equity on the turn with my flush draw, so even though I was behind, I was never in terrible shape. Just got lucky this time and binked the backdoor.
14 Replies
Playing NL100, 149BB (Hero) vs. 159BB (Villain). SB (villain) opens to 3BB, I flat in BB with K♣3♣.Flop comes 4♣ Q♥ 7♥, villain checks, I check back.Turn is 2♣, bringing a backdoor flush draw. Villain fires 8.7BB, I click it back to 17.3BB. He 3-bets to 48.2BB, and I rip it for 146BB. He snap calls with K♠Q♣.We agree to run it twice. Pot is 296BB. Rivers come 6♣ J♣, and I scoop the whole
how was it 35~? u count your K cards too eh? it doesn't make sense unless u run it twice ... but isn't the odds reduced? I think normally the equity should be around uh 19%
Yup correct
If your read is that good then I don't see why not. I myself have issue with overvalueing my reads a lot.
You were 20% on the turn.
This is just awful. Both players way overplayed their hands, but you gii terrible.
I saw mr kid poker on that day said that running it twice has some math, either it can make villain fold which is 0ev from them or call
How do we do the math? (Someone help)
By running it twice u have 20% chance to win first run
Another 20 % chance to win second (assuming they run independently)
So its like betting 50% of Stack to win 20% of the time by making a flush.
So that kinda reduces the variance and reward people to take more risks.
I dont usually run multiple times to experience full tilt poker…. Anyway its micro stakes ��
You had such a weak draw on the turn. You should have just called his turn bet. It isn't a good idea to gii 20% to win. It would have been even worse if he had a set. You were trying to get him to fold, but he called with TPGK. It doesn't matter much how many times you run it, this is just bad.
I also don't see what the click it back accomplishes. He doesn't fold to it much. I guess if he calls, you can bluff the river unimproved. Once he 3-bets, then you may not be getting the right odds and need to fold. Better to flat call and not get blown off your draw. He shouldn't be 3-bet/folding enough to shove.
You are better than 20% if he had some pair below kings. When you shove though, you should have very low equity if called.
Just horrible. You gii for 150xBB with an SPR of over 20 going to the turn with a flush draw on the turn. You don't just get allin with any draw on the turn. Very basic.
Just horrible. You gii for 150xBB with an SPR of over 20 going to the turn with a flush draw on the turn. You don't just get allin with any draw on the turn. Very basic.
Agree is 100NL midstakes now? Feel lucky and ashamed at the same time.
All I see here is you overplayed your hand and got lucky lol why would you rip it in on turn? It would normally only be called by better, which it did even here vs "fish"...
I saw mr kid poker on that day said that running it twice has some math, either it can make villain fold which is 0ev from them or callHow do we do the math? (Someone help)By running it twice u have 20% chance to win first run Another 20 % chance to win second (assuming they run independently) So its like betting 50% of Stack to win 20% of the time by making a flush.So that kin
Running it twice has no effect on your EV and this spot is no different.
Hero has a flush draw, so 9 outs. Hero shoves for 128.7BB at the decision point, (shove is 146 but he already has bet 17.3) so he either suffers a 128.7 bb loss or makes a 167.3 bb profit (296 in pot minus the 128.7 for the shove).
With normal runout hero wins 9/42 and loses 33/42. EV is therefore 167.3x9/42 - 128.7x33/42 =-65.271bb.
Running twice hero wins 19.3 for a chop (half of 296=148 minus the 128.7 shove). The win and loss amounts for either player scooping donÂ’t change. Hero scoops with probability 9/42 x 8/41 = 72/1722. Villain scoops with probability 33/42 x 32/42 =1056/1722. Chop is the remaining (1722-1056-72)/1722 or 594/1722.
EV is then 167.3 x 72/1722 + 19.3x594/1722 - 128.7 x 1056/1722 =-65.271, exactly the same as running it out once.
If you know he has OB/3BET range, hand becomes clear call ott. You dont want to face turn 3b eps if he can go this wide for value.
Just call the turn versus a fish.
MDA shows huge over calling after they OB and face a raise so we can exploit them and only raise hands that dominate value.
