What do we do with a turned straight on board-pairing river vs this rec-fish?
1/3, $100-$500 buy-in, 10% rake up to $5 + $2 promo drop. Parx Philly Friday night. 9-handed.
Table is mostly loose-passi
That point is a caveat to flop advice to semibluff. And while we need to be consistent with it, come river, it's really about range analysis and value targets, which seem like very thin bluff catchers that won't necessarily want to call a large bet regardless of H's image. Couple that with V's conceivable boats, I feel block bet/fold is most sound. Feel free to agree or disagre
I appreciate you hanging in and commenting. I agree that the river decision comes down to range analysis and value targets.
Just looking at all the possible combinations of hands he could have, there are 30 combos of TT-AA we beat, and based on what I saw of how he played, I think he plays them all this way, including calling a river jam, when the board pairs, and all our 2P combos that don't include a 6 get counterfeited.
Maybe he has 99 or 98s at some frequency, but those are both chops, and it's only 6 combos, so I'm not worried about them, especially since I'd think those hands raise flop or turn at some frequency, and may not even call a river jam.
For boats/quads, he's got 3 combos of 88, 3 combos of 55, 1 of 77, and 1 of 66. If he's not 3B'ing AKo pre, it's hard to give him credit for raising 65s pre, but if we want to throw that in, there's 1 more combo that's now a boat. I'm not giving him 76o or 86s when he opens UTG1, and he can't have 76s, so we only lose to 9 combos of boats/quads.
So, without even trying to figure out how he plays any of the combos in his range, he's got 3.3x as many hands we beat than hands that beat us. If we think he's 3B'ing any of those hands on the flop or turn, or not raising with all of them pre, the math starts to shift heavily in our favor.
If he's not 3B'ing AKo pre, but 3B'ing the nuts when I x/r the flop, I think it's at least possible, if not likely that he may not raise 55-88 pre from UTG1. But if he does, he's likely to 3B 55-77 on the flop, and raise 88 on the turn.
If he's calling flop and turn with TT-AA, is it because he thinks we're FOS, or he's worried that we have him beat with 2P+? If we raised flop with a set, 88, or 76/65, we're boated up, and he still loses. If he levels himself into thinking we have air, or 87/75, and are turning 2P into a bluff, he wins.
I think the 6 on the river is actually a good card for us, because all his OP's are now 2P, and it's harder for us to have boats/quads. We'd have to be calling pre with a bunch of off-suit 76/65 and raising flop with 88 for his OP's to be super worried we've filled up.
What's the point if you're going to ignore the reads you already had on him before the hand began All you're doing now is running around in circles.
It's like you're forgetting that even when playing your "A" game you'll sometimes get bluffed off a hand.
How am I ignoring the reads?
He doesn't seem super-competent. He seems to be pretty tight. I know he didn't 3B AKo pre from the BTN. I know he didn't bet the flop, last to act, multi-way, with top 2P, and then snap-folded to a turn x/r when a potential straight draw came in. And I know he'll bet-3B the flop with the nuts if he gets x/r'd.
Based on the limited info we have on him, it seems reasonable to think his range has all the over-pairs to the board, and very few boats, because that fits the read.
How am I ignoring the reads?
Based on the limited info we have on him, it seems reasonable to think his range has all the over-pairs to the board, and very few boats, because that fits the read.
Based on these two hands, and some others I'd seen him play, my general read to start this hand was that his pre-flop raising range is going to be VERY tight..."
OK, so then, AGAIN, it comes down to how much you'll think he'll call if you're confident that he has an overpair to the board.
I offered the above suggestion as the very first response in this thread, and twenty-six replies later my answer isn't changing, no matter how many times you run around in a circle.
87 is surely a great bluff at the end to fold out over pairs, blocking many boats?Thinking about it probably your hand is a good check call candidate because you block thick value and beat the bluffs. So at the end you bet hands like 87 to bluff, boats for value. Then check call hands like yours and maybe you can check fold a straight with no blockers against boats eg 9j suited
I'm honestly unsure.
I'd think our best bluff candidates would want to block boats and straights, and unblock missed heart draws, and have little to no showdown value. But I can't think of any combo that fits all those criteria. The worst hands we're likely to have here are 87 or 75.
I guess either is a good bluff candidate, blocking some combos of 88, 77, or 55. I just don't know if it makes sense to turn 2P into a bluff here, expecting OP's to fold what would be a better 2P.
That's part of the challenge in the river decision - when we x/r flop and barrel turn and river, we're pretty starved for bluffs on this board. All our likely flop bluff candidates improved to 2P+ on the turn. Other than 75, all our flop value got down-graded on the turn, but then improved on the river.
Bet fold 125-ish seems appropriate. V1 on flop may not 3! Doc's x-r when V2 is still to act. So I don't rule out the sets. Really wondering if this is 55.I did think two Hearts overs were likely, but not sure they call the turn. 98 might blast over you on turn, with V2 gone. A tilting V, thinking H is FOS, may not believe H x-r or leading turn for 50% on a 4-straight, bfd b
I'd think V1 would be more likely to 3B flop with 2P+ after V2 just flat calls his c-bet. Why would he want to invite V2 to come along, last to act, on such a draw-heavy board? He's going to hate any 3, 4, 8, or 9 on the turn.
I don't think he's folding AXhh, KXhh, or TXhh on the turn, but I'm not sure he's calling the flop x/r with any of those hands.
A lot of recs have a hard time folding big PP's post-flop. If he calls the flop x/r with an OP, he probably doesn't believe we have much, and we're over-bluffing. If that's what he thinks, yeah, I think he calls turn with an OP, hoping to spike top set, or hoping the board will pair, and if the board does pair on the river, I definitely don't think he's folding to a bet.
When we flat call in the BB, and x/r on 567rb, we're going to have more 2P combos than sets or straights. When the 8 comes on the turn, that decreases our straight combos further. He might think he's got 14 outs to improve to a better 2P or a set with an OP.
Why do you post hands? All you do is infinitely rebut every reply. It honestly seems that you enjoy typing essays and are just validation-seeking.
I posted this hand because there was some disagreement about it between the recs and some of the regs.
I jammed. V snap called with 55.
The regs I talked to mostly agreed that V should 3B the flop with all his sets, especially bottom set. Most of those who thought V would always raise flop with his sets thought the river was an automatic jam with just a PSB left, and if V has us beat, we're just going broke.
The rest of the debate was deep-in-the-weeds stuff about how my flop raise sizing and turn bet sizing should be bigger, and why V is calling turn and river with 55 if he's not 3B'ing flop.
Trying not to be results-oriented, nor defensive of my play. I agree with the regs who said if he's playing 55 this way, he's playing TT-AA this way, because he's tilted from the K9 vs AK hand, and I just got unlucky.
I posted this hand because there was some disagreement about it between the recs and some of the regs. I jammed. V snap called with 55.The regs I talked to mostly agreed that V should 3B the flop with all his sets, especially bottom set. Most of those who thought V would always raise flop with his sets thought the river was an automatic jam with just a PSB left, and if V has us
lol. Maybe you’re talking to bad regs.
I would fold preflop, but it is kind of close. I don't like the semibluff x/r without much on the wet board.
I would bet/fold the river against this villain.
I don't think he bluff raises here much at all, but it is a little tricky that he might over value his hand and raise with a hand that is chopping with yours.
Jam river to get heroed by overpairs.
Yeah, this would be my take too.
On the flop his bottom set is like the 50th nuts. His flat to the check/raise and flat on the 4-liner turn is fine. He now moves ahead of the zillion straight combos on the river plus eliminates a couple of higher set combos, so his river call (especially against a Banana image; ETA: lol, I thought this was a Banana thread!) is fine.
I don't know if I'm being results oriented or don't play in the same kind of game or what, but I think we massively overvalued how often this guy gets to the river with an overpair (let alone pays off a shove on a 4-liner for 4 whole stacks of reds).
Gnothatin',justsayin'G
Yeah, this would be my take too.On the flop his bottom set is like the 50th nuts. His flat to the check/raise and flat on the 4-liner turn is fine. He now moves ahead of the zillion straight combos on the river plus eliminates a couple of higher set combos, so his river call (especially against a Banana image; ETA: lol, I thought this was
Doc jammed into a boat after failing to properly size vs appropriate value targets, talked to “regs”, debated ad nauseum every post that didn’t align with his agenda, and then selectively favoured the unproven notion that V would play an overpair on a middling straight board identically to how he’d play a flopped set that fills up on the river.
that V would play an overpair on a middling straight board identically to how he'd play a flopped set that fills up on the river.
Yeah, this was also an odd take, imo.
Gagain,nothatin',justsayin'G
