What do we do with a turned straight on board-pairing river vs this rec-fish?
1/3, $100-$500 buy-in, 10% rake up to $5 + $2 promo drop. Parx Philly Friday night. 9-handed.
Table is mostly loose-passive rec-fish (6 of them). Hero is sandwiched between the only two other good players at the table, both of whom are pretty straight-forward TAGs.
V2 is a very loose-passive calling station, who is apparently playing every unsuited AX combo as a limp or call.
V1 (main V) is a little harder to nail down, but has an open limping range pre. He's maybe late 20's to early 30's, white, obese. Never seen him in the room. He seemed to have a basic understanding of the game, and seemed comfortable enough at the table to engage in some light table talk. But otherwise he didn't strike me as being overly competent.
Two earlier hands between him and hero which may be relevant, as far as trying to develop a read on him goes...
H1 - table had just opened. First orbit. Hero opens HJ to $15 over two limps with 54ss. CO folds. V1 on BTN flats. One limper (V2) flats from EP. Rest fold. Flop is QxJx6s. Action checks through. Turn is the 8s, giving hero an ISSD and BDFD. Checks to BTN who bets 1/3 pot. Limper folds. Hero x/r's to 4x.
V folds QJhh face-up, saying, "You have to make it complicated? It's too early for this." Table is stunned. Hero mucks without showing. Table spends the next five minutes debating whether or not V made a good fold. Hero says nothing.
H2 - about an hour or so later. Hero opens HJ to $15 over two limps with Kc9c. CO folds. V on BTN flats. One limper (V2) flats from EP. Rest fold. Flop is QcJsTd. Action checks to BTN who bets 1/2 pot. Limper folds. Hero x/r's 5x. V jams. Hero snaps. V shows AKo. Hero goes runner-runner clubs to make a flush and scoop.
Based on these two hands, and some others I'd seen him play, my general read to start this hand was that his pre-flop raising range is going to be VERY tight, and he may not have a 3B'ing range that isn't just AA/KK.
He's prone to slow-playing strong hands on the flop, but gets lost facing aggression, either over-folding strong hands or over-playing nutted hands. Based on the two hands above, I would guess he thinks my check-raises are always strong, never bluffs, since he folded top 2 in the first hand, and I showed the 2nd nuts in the other.
OTTH...about $600 eff to start.
V1 opens UTG1 to $10. V2 calls. Folds to Hero in BB, who calls with 9h7h.
FLOP ($30) - 7s6c5h.
H x. V1 $20. V2 calls. H x/r's to $75. V1 snap calls. V2 folds.
TURN ($200) - 7s6c5h8h.
H $100. V1 snap calls.
RIVER ($400). 7s6c5h8h6d.
We've got $415 left.
Hero?
Based on population reads, and the earlier hand histories, what sort of range would you all give V here, and what's your action on the river?
You said he likely has a very tight PF raising range, so it's difficult to see him showing up here with a boat.
I'd bet as much as you think he's willing to call and/or the amount you're willing to lose if you want to bet-fold the river.
H1. Isoing 2 limpers from the HJ with 54s is going be pretty clearly losing imo, especially given game isn't that deep and 1/3 lineups will go multiway often.
We're looking to play strong linear ranges when isoing, especially vs 2 players.
Maybe on the BU vs one limper it's fine if blinds are fairly tight, but here is just loosing money always imo.
With the 97s hand I assume you're turning your hand into a bluff on the flop?
This seems really unnecessary given our equity and potential showdown equity sometimes.
We're just bloating the pot oop with a shit top pair, that yes has a gutter too, but what's our plan on basically any turn that doesn't give us the straight?
We should be going into more of a showdown mode here on the flop, trying to get river as cheap as possible. Vs 2 players pilling money here with this holding is dicey. I guess if you believe they can fold by river it's fine though.
River I think jamming is still fine if you think his range is very tight and he might just be fed up and not ready to fold a big OP
This guy folded top two, so it's going to be tough to get any $$$ out of him. I bet ~$150. If he raises/shoves, it's a soul read. He might raise tight pre, but we don't actually know his raising range, correct? Have you seen any of his hands that he raised pre? Is $10 normal for him? Would he raise w/ T9, 88/77/66/76, especially from UTG+1? Seems unlikely.
It would be sick if he had something like 99 and shoved. Snap calling is often the sign of a draw...
You said he likely has a very tight PF raising range, so it's difficult to see him showing up here with a boat.
I'd bet as much as you think he's willing to call and/or the amount you're willing to lose if you want to bet-fold the river.
I mean, I *THINK* he's opening tight PF, if he's got a limping range. So much random weird $hlt happens at low stakes though, so I'm always wondering if opponents are actually consistent, or accidentally randomizing in some way that doesn't make sense, like limping AXs, flatting QJs, but opening 76s and low pairs.
H1. Isoing 2 limpers from the HJ with 54s is going be pretty clearly losing imo, especially given game isn't that deep and 1/3 lineups will go multiway often.We're looking to play strong linear ranges when isoing, especially vs 2 players.Maybe on the BU vs one limper it's fine if blinds are fairly tight, but here is just loosing money always imo.With the 97s hand I assume you'r
For sure, I was getting OOL with 54s in H1. No one was more shocked than I was when he mucked QJ face-up.
For the main hand here...
My thinking on the flop is that V1 is likely to have a pretty strong hand when he opens pre, and he'll also be c-betting too often, regardless of board texture, because that's how recs play their big PP's and AK.
This board would seem to hit my BB-calling range way more than his EP opening range, so I thought I could credibly rep a lot of strong hands when I x/r.
I guess we could say I was turning my hand into a bluff, since I didn't think it had much if any showdown value against OP's. But we might also say my TP needed some protection against over-cards, on this very dynamic board, where V2 is going to have every AXo combo.
If either V calls the x/r, we have a BDFD to go with our ISSD, and we have a pair. If either V 3B's, we're not too upset about mucking a fairly weak TP. If we raise and either or both flat call, then I'm just going to shut things down on the turn, unless we pick up equity.
But if we just flat call, OOP facing 2 V's, I think it's harder to play later streets, whether we improve or not. Any 3, 4, 8, or 9 puts a one-liner out there. Is either V going to call with worse if we donk, or bet if we check again, or call a check-raise?
Any other card, we check, V barrels, V2 probably calls, and we should probably fold. Check-calling flop just to fold turn didn't seem like the highest EV play.
I thought V2 was pretty capped when he just flat calls the flop. It did occur to me that I could possibly make V1 over-fold if I barreled on certain run-outs, given that he folded top 2P when I x/r'd the turn on a straight-completing card.
But the plan wasn't to try to bluff him off a strong hand. I wasn't planning to barrel off-suit Broadway turns, for example, because I didn't think he'd fold any OP's on a disconnected high card, and I didn't want to try to run a low-equity three-street bluff.
Basically my plan was to barrel turn on any 3, 4, 7, 8, or 9, and also maybe any heart, and otherwise just check-evaluate, but mostly just check-fold. On the turn 8, I didn't think he'd fold any OP's if I bet 1/2 pot, and was somewhat hoping he'd raise because the BDFD appeared.
In a vacuum, I don’t mind the flop c/r after V2 calls. Better to deny equity to other draws/pairs to get HU with a nut advantage. If we are 3-bet it’s not catastrophic to fold this hand as we are drawing to 4 outs at that point. It’s a semi-bluff which uncaps us and allows us more options on later streets.
The turn snap call is strange with a one liner out there. Overpairs can’t be thrilled and probably need to pause and think about the fact that they may face a river bomb. If his opening range is that tight, perhaps TT makes sense with the gutter redraw. Back door hearts may snap call turn but hard to see many c-bet/calling flop. Sets would snap call turn hoping board pairs or you slow down.
With this analysis, I think a small block bet/fold makes the most sense on the river. He’s going to check back overpairs yet probably bluff catch with them given your image. All of your value targets are very weak bluff catchers on this board. I don’t think he’s ever raising river without a boat.
One addendum to my first paragraph:
Be careful that your recent history w V doesn’t change his behaviour and worsen your FE with bluffs/semibluffs. After folding 2 pair to you and then having you run into his nut straight only to suck out grossly, he is probably fed up.
Ok I probably x/f or bet/fold 100.
Villain has all the overpairs, some flop/turn sets/44. Probably it.
So he's literally never bluffing this river, so we can comfortably check/fold if we do decide to check.
Betting 100 to target his overpairs range is also ok. We are instant folding to shove since villain probably never bluff with his showdownable hands.
I could see checking to induce, with plans to call, if we thought V was capable of bluffing missed Broadway heart combos. But I didn't think V was capable of that, after taking the line I did.
Checking to fold seems insanely exploitable, unless we're 100% certain he never bluffs or bets worse for value. I wasn't 100% sure he would never spaz-jam TT-AA if we check.
Betting small and folding to a raise seems problematic. If we bet $100 into $400, and he jams, we'll be getting 3:1 on a call.
The challenge is trying to figure out his value jamming range. We block T9hh and 76hh, assuming he even raises 76s or T9s pre. 76 seems like a flop 3B. T9 seems like a flop fold or turn raise. There aren't even any combos of 76s available on the river.
If he's raising T9 and 76, he's likely raising 98 and 87. We beat 87, and chop with 98. 98 seems like a mandatory 3B on the flop, given how he played AK on QJTrb. And we block 98hh.
If he's boated up, he would have had to raise pre with 77/66/55, or 76o, not 3B the flop with a set or top 2P, and not folded turn when the straight comes in, or he would have had to raise pre with 88, and not 3B the flop with an OP + OESD, and not raised turn when he makes top set but the BDFD appears.
I can't give this guy credit for raising the one available combo of 86s pre from UTG1, c-betting the flop, calling the x/r, turning 2P, and just flatting the 1/2 pot turn bet.
If he has.one.of the three combos of T9s, he would have had to raise pre from EP, called the flop x/r, drilled the nuts on the turn, and not raised, even though he unblocks hearts.
Yes, all that is possible, but he could have 30 combos of TT-AA that would make sense for him to play this way, versus 10 combos of 88/77/66/55, 3 combos of T9s, and 1 combo of 86s that MIGHT play this way. He could also have 3.combos of 99, which is just a chop, but there again, that seems like a mandatory turn raise when he drills an inside straight but the BDFD appears, and he doesn't have hearts.
If we wouldn't barrel off here as a bluff, because we don't think he's folding OP's, I don't see how we can check-fold or bet-fold. The only reason to check or bet small is if we think he's bluffing or betting/calling with worse, but just folding if we bet.
Checking to induce a bet from TT-AA seems reasonable, as does betting to get called.
I was torn between wondering if he's still in nitty folds mode, or fed up with Doc's BS mode.
The AK vs K9 hand was only a couple hands prior to this one, and he'd seen me bluff other opponents within the last hour or two. Gun to my head, I would guess he wasn't in a folding mood, and could be tilted enough to spaz.
Just wasn't sure if checking or betting would be higher EV.
Would you jam 78 suited here? That would be a neat bluff
Turn I think you should bet larger. Then all in river easier
River I think you can bet as you do have some bluffs. You can only check if you think he will bluff.
What value do you lose to? One combo 66 one 77 three 88?
If he doesn't call over pairs and never bluffs it's a check fold but that feels weird. Id have gone closer to pot turn and then easy jam
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Betting small and folding to a raise seems problematic. If we bet $100 into $400, and he jams, we'll be getting 3:1 on a call.
Who cares about getting 3:1 to call a jam if the odds of him check-jamming with worse are 10:1?
Doc you never fail in making me regret posting in your threads.
“What do you guys think of this spot?”
“Thanks for your replies but here’s 1000 words on why you’re incorrect and why I played it the way I did”
What is the purpose of posting if you incessantly debate and justify your actions post hoc?
Would you jam 78 suited here? That would be a neat bluffTurn I think you should bet larger. Then all in river easierRiver I think you can bet as you do have some bluffs. You can only check if you think he will bluff. What value do you lose to? One combo 66 one 77 three 88?If he doesn't call over pairs and never bluffs it's a check fold but that feels weird. Id have gone closer
Yep. In hindsight, I regretted not betting larger on the turn. If I could have a do-over, I might over-bet.
What value we lose to is an interesting question. I think there's some theory that says we should play bottom set very aggressively, middle set less aggressively, and top set lesser still. But I wonder if most recs don't reflexively play all the flopped sets here the same way, usually as a flop 3B, or if not, then as a turn raise.
I think it's possible he gets to the river with some combos that boat up. I just think he's more likely to have over-pairs, because his flopped / turned sets or 2P are more likely to raise flop or turn than his over-pairs.
Who cares about getting 3:1 to call a jam if the odds of him check-jamming with worse are 10:1
I see your point. It's valid. My point is simply that it's hard to bet-fold here, getting 3:1, the way this was played, and with the recent hand history. I wouldn't be certain he's not spaz-jamming over a 1/4 pot bet often enough to make the call.
Doc you never fail in making me regret posting in your threads.
"What do you guys think of this spot"
"Thanks for your replies but here's 1000 words on why you're incorrect and why I played it the way I did"
What is the purpose of posting if you incessantly debate and justify your actions post hoc
I never fail? At least give me credit for being consistent.
I think it's worth debating the value of jamming vs betting small to bet-fold or checking to check-call or check-fold. Which is the highest EV play depends on our assumptions about his range, and how he plays it.
I thought you made a great point about the history decreasing our fold equity. Your point was about not getting out of line with bluffs. I'd hope you could appreciate how I'm carrying that logic through when we have value. If V thinks we're FOS, it increases the likelihood that he'll call our bet or possibly raise with worse.
Doc you never fail in making me regret posting in your threads. "What do you guys think of this spot""Thanks for your replies but here's 1000 words on why you're incorrect and why I played it the way I did" What is the purpose of posting if you incessantly debate and justify your actions post hoc
I never fail? At least give me credit for being consistent.I think it's worth debat
Doc you never fail in making me regret posting in your threads. "What do you guys think of this spot""Thanks for your replies but here's 1000 words on why you're incorrect and why I played it the way I did" What is the purpose of posting if you incessantly debate and justify your actions post hoc
I never fail? At least give me credit for being consistent.I think it's worth debat
That point is a caveat to flop advice to semibluff. And while we need to be consistent with it, come river, it’s really about range analysis and value targets, which seem like very thin bluff catchers that won’t necessarily want to call a large bet regardless of H’s image. Couple that with V’s conceivable boats, I feel block bet/fold is most sound. Feel free to agree or disagree.
I think it's worth debating the value of jamming vs betting small to bet-fold or checking to check-call or check-fold. Which is the highest EV play depends on our assumptions about his range, and how he plays it.
What's the point if you're going to ignore the reads you already had on him before the hand began? All you're doing now is running around in circles.
It's like you're forgetting that even when playing your "A" game you'll sometimes get bluffed off a hand.
Would you jam 78 suited here? That would be a neat bluffTurn I think you should bet larger. Then all in river easierRiver I think you can bet as you do have some bluffs. You can only check if you think he will bluff. What value do you lose to? One combo 66 one 77 three 88?If he doesn't call over pairs and never bluffs it's a check fold but that feels weird. Id have gone closer
Forgot to reply to a couple points here -
Honestly, I wasn't sure I could have any bluffs here, or what they'd be. All the best bluff candidates on the flop are going to be pair + straight draws that improve to a straight or 2P on the turn.
Even if I was over-playing 88 or 86 on the turn, or 76 or 65 on the flop, all those combos are boated up on the river.
All my river "bluffs" would have to have some showdown value at some point, unless I'm just doing this with air, which seems suicidal after he bet-calls flop and calls turn.
Like, am I somehow getting here with A7cc or A7dd, and trying to make him fold TT-AA? When I barrel turn, it's more likely I'd have A7hh, or A6hh, which is trips at the end, and can maybe bet thin for value.
A7hh is probably the worst hand I could ever have here, but I'm not jamming missed hearts on the end.
I might x/r 87s on the flop, and bet 1/2 pot on the turn, but I don't think I'd jam river with 2P when the board pairs, because all those hands are losing when his OP's snap call.
Doc I think one of your meta-leaks is approaching hands as if your low stakes opponents think and analyze decisions to the same extent that you do.
Forgot to reply to a couple points here - Honestly, I wasn't sure I could have any bluffs here, or what they'd be. All the best bluff candidates on the flop are going to be pair + straight draws that improve to a straight or 2P on the turn. Even if I was over-playing 88 or 86 on the turn, or 76 or 65 on the flop, all those combos are boated up on the river.All my river "bluffs"
87 is surely a great bluff at the end to fold out over pairs, blocking many boats?
Thinking about it probably your hand is a good check call candidate because you block thick value and beat the bluffs. So at the end you bet hands like 87 to bluff, boats for value. Then check call hands like yours and maybe you can check fold a straight with no blockers against boats eg 9j suited, which also blocks overpairs and this is much worse than your hand.
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Doc I think one of your meta-leaks is approaching hands as if your low stakes opponents think and analyze decisions to the same extent that you do.
This is spot on in my opinion. 99% of these low stakes players are fish with massive leaks. Their level of thinking about hands in game does not go very far.
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Bet fold 125-ish seems appropriate. V1 on flop may not 3! Doc's x-r when V2 is still to act. So I don't rule out the sets. Really wondering if this is 55.
I did think two Hearts overs were likely, but not sure they call the turn. 98 might blast over you on turn, with V2 gone.
A tilting V, thinking H is FOS, may not believe H x-r or leading turn for 50% on a 4-straight, bfd board. It'd be 100 to call a pot of 300, 415 back. V may feel they've sufficient IO to call a 9 or 10 out draw. Which an OP isn't. Do you think V is making a stand here, despite the scary board, with an OP that doesn't have sufficent outs to improve?
I'd say x-f, if you don't think this V spaz-rips river with worse over your x. If H bets, it's not in the hopes of a call, but so V doesn't retake the initiative and bet something H shouldn't call.
Doc: I'd just agree with others here that it's not a good use of your time to develop a "theory of mind" for low-stakes villains on a Philly Friday night. You're just going to level yourself into mistakes.
You made a polar xr on flop and then a value bet on turn. Competent V, which he likely isn't, is folding nearly everything here except NFD, AA/KK, 88-99. I'm not sure he raises preflop with stuff like 44, 66 and we block 77/99. So when he just calls, it feels like he is taking a stand with overpair. Obviously he can have 88.
River: I'm giving him a chance to call me down light. 100 or so, like others have suggested, makes sense to me. He has already demonstrated no understanding of blockers and range/nut advantage etc. If he raises, he has 88/99 and I think you can fold.
He didn't come to the casino, skipping cardio night at the gym, to fold his overpairs to a wise guy like yourself.
Now that you've changed your read (again) from what you posted in the OP, this is a clear bet/call. So, bet $100 - $150 and call his jam, which could be anything from spazzing w/ an over pair to the nuts, but he might just call w/ worse.
I'm not a huge fan of preflop thanks to being OOP. But for this price I guess I can't hate too much. Overall, my (obviously) nitty opinion is that you don't give nearly as much respect to position as you should.
Ok, so on the flop you've got some equity and meanwhile are flexing your FE against a guy who has shown he's capable of folding. Ok, I can get behind this.
I also bet about 1/2 PSB to attempt to keep some of his hands in.
Wierd river spot with a PSB left. Could he make a hero call with an overpair thinking maybe's he's counterfeited us? But does he really do that with a four liner out there; heck, does he even really get to the river with an overpair enough? My initial reaction is that we should obviously go for some value and bet/fold like $150 (cuz he's never bluffing as far as I can tell, right?). But the more I think about it, the more I'm questioning what exactly I'm attempting to get value from. Am I the only one finding it difficult to find a worse hand, especially if we're cool with our flop/turn play?
ETA: Think I'm mostly on board with a small bet/fold. But also at the same time kinda thinking he never has worse (too MUBSy, maybe he really is just hurp durping down with an overpair?), so I am wondering why I'm betting.
GcluelessNLnoobG
