AA 3-bet pot on monochrome connected flop HU and shallow

Flop is about as bad as it gets but turn is about as good as it gets. It’s a slam dunk shove now.

Really? Villain still has all of the flushes, straights and boats, while AA is either drawing dead or needing to fade a lot of cards on the river.

At this type of table you can go bigger pre, but $60 is OK.

You have 100bb w/ AA vs. a splashy aggro player with a great turn, considering. Just raise the turn. Make him pay to see a river. If he has you, he has you. From description, he could be drawing or full of it.

SPR is low and we are underrepped. Sure he could have us crushed but if we were ahead OTF his draw equity is now cut in half and he may be stabbing with worse one pair hands after flop action. If not deep, we sometimes need to lose w AA on a shitty board. This V sounds terrible.

We can’t just c/f every terrible board w AA. He has nut advantage but we aren’t always up against nutted hands. His nutty hands OTF are still nutty on the turn, but we are in much better shape against his entire range OTT. At this depth, let er rip and expect to get called by worse a lot.

Yeah, I think I should have shoved the turn and maybe should have bet the flop. If we were deeper, than just calling down would be reasonable.

River was Jc and went x/x. Maybe should have bet the river. Villain showed Qs9s for flopped top pair.

Villain remarked that if he had shoved the river, he thinks I would have called.

PRE - looks fine. I might raise bigger, but 4x is standard.

FLOP - yuck. Think I'd still c-bet small here, like $35.

TURN - think calling and jamming are both reasonable here. Somewhat prefer calling IP.

Calling turn and losing to a one-liner river is pretty bad.

I made a massive mistake in my session last night, in that I created a very low SPR with an overpair and yet did not turn off my brain postflop. I'm really going to try my best not to outthink myself any more and make massive mistakes like that.

So in this case, our nice preflop 3bet has setup a very small SPR of 2.4 and we've flopped an overpair. Yeah, the board ain't great, but that's really irrelevant at this SPR. We're committed. There's a crapload of terrible turn cards. I would consider shoving at this SPR. Otherwise, I bet large to never fold (with the possible exception of some nut low turn cards).

Gdon'toverthinkattheseSPRsG

Yeah, if it was a single raised pot, then check and call might be best with this hand and board. However, I now think I should have just 1/2 pot or so on the flop / gii and shove pretty much any turn. The wet board might make him call down with a draw or think I might have a draw and call down with a decent pair like he had.

If the game is splashy, you definitely want to size up pre-flop. I'd go $75ish. But that is nitpicking. As it is, you got HU in position against an overly aggressive player in a 3bet pot- that's a good spot. Maybe he folds to $75 and that would be bad.

On the flop, if he is the kind of player who would call off with a single heart, which it sounds like he is, bet. I'd be inclined to bet small to induce a hand like Ahx, a random 7x, or even 9x to jam. Against a tighter player, checking is good, but a LAG is going to over x/r this spot if you are perceived as tight. A small bet is waiving the red flag to get his predatory instincts going.

AP the turn is a shove against a loose player. If he has it, you're probably paying off the river, if he has a draw he is calling and might not bluff or call the river if he misses. So gii early. With the turn you at least picked up a few outs if he flopped huge. Against a tight player, it would be an error and this would be a surrender.

The whole point of playing LAG style is so that people in these types of spots should pay off your nutted hands and call your bluffs. A LAG will put you in spots where you should call/raise with uncomfortable hands but many players don't have the guts so they fold or just call with stronger hands too frequently trying to avoid the high variance line. That's the leak that LAGs exploit.

The problem is that it is very easy when you are the LAG to get overly loose with your calls. You start assuming that because you would shove with a single heart or a SD, your opponents would as well and so you call off light. Or you convince yourself that opponents are finally fed up and pushing light on you. That's a leak I had in my own game that I've been working on because I've put in tons of bad money calling tight players to find out they are still nits. It was very hard to fix, because its easy to get wrapped up in the action you are creating. You should shove, he should fold his non-nutted hands, but unless he is a very good LAG, he won't. Most likely he will call too frequently with too much of his range and in the long-run you will win.

We are jamming for value and equity denial. Yes at this SPR I am prepared to lose my stack on the turn if already beat as I’ve stated. Calling and allowing V to realize equity with random hearts, gutshots, etc is pretty bad. We are also getting called by worse a lot (as H truly did in this hand) by holdings that may not pay off on certain rivers. Worst case scenarios shouldn’t always dictate your decisions.

Just so I understand - you believe V bet-calls a turn over-bet jam with a "made" hand that is worse than ours, like top pair, but folds his draws, and check-folds river on a brick?

I guess I just don't see that happening. If V is going to bet-call a turn jam with 9x, he's probably calling with all his draws, so our jam doesn't deny any equity in that scenario.

Jamming here seems like a polarization mistake to me, if we think he's only / always folding worse, and only / always calling with better. We wouldn't be jamming for value or as a bluff, in that scenario.

If we think he calls with 9x, and his draws, but we think he gives up and check-folds river, I could see jamming, but I don't think that's our guy here.

He sounds like a pretty bad LAG, bad enough and aggro enough to monkey-bet the river with 9x, or mokey-bluff again. I don't like making it easy for bad LAGs to play perfectly, which is basically what jamming turn does.

I actually think the most likely scenario here is that he folds all his worse value, like 9x, but calls when he has us crushed, AND calls with his high-equity draws. So we lose value when he folds 9x, get stacked when he has us beat, get stacked when he calls and sucks out, and he never has to decide if he can bluff or go for thin value on the river.

I don’t care to read all of this or go back and forth. You read my thoughts. It’s not an overbet jam btw. V would have to call 235 into a 280 pot.

I think you are overthinking this (as usual). There are very few brick rivers. It’s actually ok to fold out worse hands sometimes if they have decent equity (ie any naked heart). It’s less than a pot sized shove as stated above. I also think you are severely underestimating how often we get value (ie any naked heart!, combo draw, overpair). Calling turn at this depth AP is FPS.