AA in a 3-bet pot on a monotone board
5/5
~$800 effective
UTG - euro reg
SB - Recreational player. Plays passively, prefers calling over aggression. Likes to trap - for example, in a hand where I raised preflop (BU) and he called, the flop came T95, and he just called with 99.
UTG raises to $20, SB calls, Hero (BB) A♠A♥ 3-bets to $100, UTG calls, SB calls.
Flop($300) Q♣ J♣ 5♣
Hero x, UTG bets $150, SB calls, Hero - ?
7 Replies
Crappy flop versus two interested opponents while holding an RIO hand?
I think I'm letting this go.
Interesting situation with the QJ clubs on the board. I think it's a jam or fold. If H jams, V needs a hair under 30%. Hold that thought.
First ?, what do you think UTG's open/call range is here, with the SB in the middle? Is a Euro reg 4! AKcc or calling? I'd think that ATcc might fold to a 3! from the BB, especially if a trappy casual is in between. Is KTcc opening UTG? What is V doing with AcX or KcX hands? 4!, call, fold?
Then that range fires off a 50% bet on a monotone board. Which seems a tad high for a reg. My guess about UTG's range is that it doesn't have many made flushes in it. It does have a ton of AQ/AJ/KQ maybe KJ, with one club, and a bunch of QQ-TT. Sets might bet bigger, and a set vs a made Ace-high flush is still at 34% and a studied reg would know this. We need UTG to have some one-club combos that are doing much worse versus a made flush, to get a fold from a shove.
Second ?, what do you think UTG's image is of you? I.e., KTs, AXs, are often 3! by blinds in this situation vs UTG opens, per charts, but casuals will overcall instead. So if V respects your game, V will fill your perceived range with a lot more flushes than otherwise AP.
Final ?, will SB fold, IYO, a small made flush to a shove? Or do you think SB is still drawing (or has a set/QJ, etc...)?
Tbh, I probably fold. But shoving could work, if the above questions (UTG open/call/b50 range, UTG perception of H, fold equity vs SB) break for H in a favorable manner.
There's 45 in the pot preflop, in a spot where you have a discount and can call closing the action. 100 seems small.
After the flop, I might do something other than fold if SB didn't call.
I don't mind shoving if we have A♣ but without it calling seems like the only other option.
$100 seems OK pre to me, but nothing wrong with $120 or $125. Gross flop and even grosser action. Personally, I let it go.
I think I might call the flop and see the turn unless you have some read here. There's a lot of draws on a board like this, the caller sort of sweetens the pot with a weaker holding, and it might check on the turn given it's 3 way action. I also don't mind folding the flop if you feel less confident about the situation - UTG might be leading a tighter range then expected.
We all know this already, but if H calls, pot's 750 on turn with only 550 back.
We're eating a 3/4 pot turn shove in all likelihood from someone, with a hand that, as AF noted, has pretty big RIO on a monotone board that 2 Vs are interested in. Much rather fold than call.
Grunch -
PRE - Dude, seriously, you have AA, a (presumably tight) Euro reg opens UTG, the SB you describe as passive and trappy flats, and you only 3B 5x???
You have to make this at least $120. I might even go as much as $140, because eff them, and we're starting $800 deep.
FLOP - FOLD, AINEC.
We got away cheap.