Big draw wet board

Effective stacks $800.

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I’m ok checking option pre but raising is fine.

I prob check flop OOP when board better for V and I don’t want to get raised off my equity. I don’t hate betting though. Mainly because our SD completing will put a one liner out there. But we can c/c too and if V checks back we have delayed C-bet opportunities like this turn card.

AP I overbet turn planning to gii to a raise and if called, jam a ton of rivers (improved or unimproved)

PRE - seems fine.

FLOP - usually prefer to check from OOP to let V stab at it. But with our specific hand blocking the nuts, and with our draws and over card to the board, I don't hate the 1/2 pot c-bet.

TURN - bet 1/2 pot, maybe a tad less. Calling a raise unless it's ridiculously large.

The flop texture is going to favor V's range more than ours. The K is better for us, but V could have some Kx trash that he thinks should raise for whatever reason. He'll also likely raise if he's got 2P+ when the BDFD appears. I think we somewhat prefer he raise turn, as it makes our river decisions easier.

If he raises, planning to donk river small if we make our straight, bomb it if we hit our flush, check-fold if we brick, check-evaluate if we spike an ace, and possibly do something reckless if we spike a 9 - thinking we could rep QJ and V really can't if he raises here. Might go for a check-raise as a bluff.

If he flat calls, depending on how quickly he calls, I might check or barrel. If he snap calls, and we brick, I might check, possibly to bluff catch a worse draw if he bets small. If he tank-calls, I probably barrel when we brick. Still looking to donk small if we make a straight, bomb it if we make the flush, check evaluate if we spike an ace, and possibly check raise if we spike a 9.

But if V is tilted, I might mix it up some, depending on how sticky and aggro he is. Not going to try to bluff him as often, and might take smaller or larger sizes with our value hands.

It's going to depend on my read and what I think is going on inside his head. If he's in "take a stand" mode, I dial it back with bluffs and go bigger with value. If he's in "I can't win" mode, I bluff more and go smaller with value. Ideally, he's bordering on full spew, but we have to know if he's going to call two streets and fold, or call three streets to know how to play the river.

Those were my thoughts, assuming "grumpy and sticky" villain isn't looking to hero call us with any piece of the board.

I'm going 90$ on the turn most likely calling any re-raise unless its ridiculous.

Without commenting on the analysis itself, I'd be incredulous if anyone could accurately process all of the above in real time at the board and come out the other side with something better than "with our monster draw I'm going to overbet the turn and potentially shove the river if unimproved."

I think you have to call the shove with pot odds. He can also sometimes have 2-pair or a combo-draw.

I kind of like checking the turn with the option to checkraise. Flop should definitely have been a check.

I don’t love it but I didn’t overbet pot with this equity to fold. Would V have limp-called from EP with 77/88/TT/J9s and then slowplayed flop? Seems unlikely but people do weird stuff. I think his value that makes the most sense is KTs. Also hard to find bluffs though. We are getting just over 2:1. We have just over 30% equity vs 2 pair/sets. J9 would have us somewhat worse. Mix in some spazzes and I say let’s gamble.

When giving Villian essentially pure value, such as with hands like 77/88, KTs, J9s, 87s, Hero is approx. a 2.5:1 dog.

It looks like after the shove the pot is approx. $1100, with Hero having $500 behind. Depending on how we tweak Villain's range the answer is either "fold" or "probably close to a coin-flip, " depending on how many bluffs we can find for this grumpy, sticky. tight-passive player who may be on tilt.

Somethings fishy i dunno it seems like maybe AcKc but honestly i dont see what else he has

After V's turn jam, I look at my 15 outs to make a straight or a nut flush, and the pot odds, and it's basically break even. The proposition is to flip a coin for a $515 bet.

But my read is that this V is not bluffing or semibluffing. He's played very loose, and generally passive wrt raising. He's made some terrible river bets as bluffs, but no raises. And given my table image, he's likely pretty nutted here. I think he has a straight or a set. That means at least a few of my 15 presumed outs are no good.

So this should be a fold. I recognize this in the moment, and say "This is really close, but this is probably a bad call." But I call anyway. Because it's so close I guess. Just stupid.

Yesterday was a big losing session, -$2200 over 6hrs. My biggest loss in 3.5 months. But I mostly played well, self-rating it a B+ session. I didn't like this call above, and I had another hand where a LAG opened on the button and I 3-bet with A2s in the BB, and ended up paying off his ATo on the river. That hand cost me $400. (double or triple barrelling with that Ace-rag-rag flop would have won me that pot. Instead it was x-c, x-x, x-c.) That same LAG also won $650 off me when I made a good all-in turn call, but his ten high rivered a straight. Definitely I ran bad to lose 2.75 buy-ins without playing bad. But I didn't get frustrated and didn't tilt, which is much better than how I would have reacted a year ago.

It's enough to understand that the flop favors V's range more than ours to deduce that betting large on the turn is a mistake.

The rest, and what happened next, is simply the logical proof why. It's not hard to see that V can have a lot of very strong hands here, and we'd rather see the river than get it in on the turn.