Ukraine-Russia War Take 2
Here is what the preliminary take on the Ukraine thread disappearing is:
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i think the most obvious thing people are missing right now is there's not going to be a peace deal. not even a real agreement between the us and russia on what a peace should look like. russian demands are still way out of line with what anyone could agree too
instead the war will go on and the us will to some degree try to help russia win it outright
So Ukraine and the US are working out a deal for earth metals, which are needed for high tech hardware, and which China controls much of the world’s supply of and is strategically bottlenecking.
I know most of you guys just want to see Trump take the L, and it doesn’t really matter how many Ukrainians or Russians have to die to get there.
But Am I really the only one that sees how this could be a positive for Ukraine’s sovereignty, as the US now has skin in the game to make sure Ukraine stays sovereign.
i think the most obvious thing people are missing right now is there's not going to be a peace deal. not even a real agreement between the us and russia on what a peace should look like. russian demands are still way out of line with what anyone could agree too
instead the war will go on and the us will to some degree try to help russia win it outright
Most of the metals/minerals Trump wants are fairly close to the current battle lines (on the Ukraine side). Unless Trump expects Putin to honor those agreements, why is Trump going to the trouble to even make such agreements; if his plan is to just let Russia win.
As I have been saying, the rhetoric just doesn't match reality. That being said, it is quite possible even what the Trump administration is offering isn't enough for Russia, and they plan to just keep fighting indefinitely.
We shall see I guess.
And Europe and the Canada will be outraged at Trump and the US for actually trying to end the war; while the rest of the world supplies Russia to keep the war going. And Europe and Canada will be indifferent towards this.
He already has lots of skin in the game... A successful Ukraine is hundreds of billions back with interest while weakening his enemy's for free. Ukraine does not need the us in the future. they need them now. After any ceasefire Europe will easily ramp up military production as it has been doing for the last 3 years. Nato outside of the usa has like 30x the gdp of Russia It wouldn't even be a sweat . Heck it seems like were about to keep this going without us support already. The way trump acts you would think hes giving 100% of aid. its more like 30-35%. Hes probably going to overplay his hand
My most charitable reading of Trump's comments this past week is it's just brinkmanship to convince Ukraine to hand over the mineral rights. If they think the US might actually side with Putin, then the cost of peace increases for them and it's a deal they have to make. In signing over the mineral rights, Ukraine has just about as much of a security guarantee as it can get, at least while Trump is in power.
Trump bringing peace to Ukraine and making the US £500bn richer is the headline he's after. He has no morals, no political ideology and Putin is a fool if he believes Trump's behaviour is sincere admiration.
Again, if I'm being charitable...
ya that could have been done behind closed doors..... now russia feels bold and will only negotiate from the highground
He already has lots of skin in the game... A successful Ukraine is hundreds of billions back with interest while weakening his enemy's for free. Ukraine does not need the us in the future. they need them now. After any ceasefire Europe will easily ramp up military production as it has been doing for the last 3 years. Nato outside of the usa has like 30x the gdp of Russia It wo
Well, if the goal is just to keep the war going I guess yuh are right the US isn’t needed.
The US has some theoretical utility because they have show in they are willing and able to negotiate with Russia to end the war.
Europe has shown no willingnes to negotiate with Putin, and on top of that they quietly are giant recipients of Russian LNG and oil, so because their boycott and sanctions of Russia are fake (where it matters, selling LNG is more important to the Russian war effort than oligarch yachts) they don’t really have leverage.
Zelensky "surrenders to Trump" and is hours away from signing the mineral deal
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article...
ya that could have been done behind closed doors..... now russia feels bold and will only negotiate from the highground
Would closed doors have ended the war quicker or slower? Russia can "feel" all they like, but they have very little to negotiate with, aside from empty nuclear threats and the land they have already taken.
Zelensky "surrenders to Trump" and is hours away from signing the mineral deal
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article...
all the ukrainian sources are saying the deal is still insane and it's much further away than this
all the ukrainian sources are saying the deal is still insane and it's much further away than this
I'm taking the linked article with a pinch of salt, to clarify as this seems like too much of a u-turn for Zelensky and my jury is out on how true this is. Trump admin's in pure Robber Baron mode it seems.
Would closed doors have ended the war quicker or slower? Russia can "feel" all they like, but they have very little to negotiate with, aside from empty nuclear threats and the land they have already taken.
what do you mean. they have a quarter of the country which Ukraine can clearly not take back
Zelenskyy doesn’t sound much like a dictator , ready to step down if Ukraine join nato …
Putin would never step down if nato would promise to never accept Ukraine in nato .
Why would you ask this? You know everything he says is true.
Well...
The US and Russia vote against the UN resolution recognizing Russia as an aggressor. A historical moment that should never have come true. But times are not chosen, and we live in them. Those very "specific times" that I have spoken about many times.
And although the pro-Ukrainian resolution condemning Russia (which the US demanded to be withdrawn) gained more votes than the anti-Ukrainian one, equating the victim and the aggressor and demanding "elimination of the root causes of the conflict" (93:18 with 65 abstentions and 89:8 with 70 abstentions), this is little consolation.
A new world has arrived, in which there is no longer a division between good and evil among the world's hegemons (no matter how conditional it may be, and nevertheless). And we have yet to see what this will result in.
But the US will not be able to wash away this shame for a very long time...
Pretty amazing times we live in.
Ukraine is down, let's extort it before ending the war.
With friends like that , who needs ennemies right?
The EU has made both grants and loans to Ukraine (including grants to repay loans).
But European military assistance to Ukraine is obviously on a gift and not a loan basis. Unlike the cutpurse Americans in WWII, we're not going to ask for all that weaponry back.
Trump's claim of the value of American military assistance, incidentally, is about three times the actual figure. The actual figure is similar to the value of European assistance.
Pretty amazing times we live in.
Ukraine is down, let's extort it before ending the war.
With friends like that , who needs ennemies right?
America bad
