OOP AKs vs Tough Pro, 4-bet pre and missed the flop
2/3/5 NL 8 handed, up against the same tough pro directly to my left as the QQ hand in the BB that I posted earlier. I usually try to avoid playing with him, but today I couldn’t. Effective stacks $1250.
H opens utg+1 AsKs $20.
V utg+2 makes it $90. Folds back to me.
H $240
V calls.
($483) Flop Tc 9c 5d
H $200
V calls
($883) Turn 7d
H check
V check
River 2d
H???
I assume I am never checking this flop?
Am I supposed to double barrel?
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11 Replies
Believe it or not, when using the slightly smaller GTO raise sizes (I can't run a post-flop sim here following a x4 RFI), the solver is pretty indifferent on the flop between checking and betting 1/2 pot..
Similarly, on the river the solver is close to indifference between shoving and checking.
your flop sizing is weird. its basically saying "im weak, but i dont want to look too weak." which is what you have.
i think you can shove with Ad. w/o probably just check.
Results:
Spoiler
Turn and River were both checked down. V showed Ah5h to take the pot. I talked to him today about the hand. He said he had decided he was going to call me on the turn if I shoved. I'm not sure if he is remembering how deep we were. But it sounds like he is saying he was going to call a sizable bet from me.
Have not seen results.
Firstly - “seat change”
Against this V who likely has a wider than avg 3-bet range, I 4! OOP and flat IP with AKsooted.
In a 4-bet pot, you have to acknowledge that you are highly unlikely to win this pot on this flop texture against this V OOP.
Starting with a check is prob best. And can do this with AA/TT/high equity draws too. If you bet, sizing is too big. He’s going to fold dominated hands and continue with pairs/draws. 1/4 pot seems like the appropriate cbet size yet also seems like the obligatory 4-bet pot cbet size and probably doesn’t accomplish much.
The runout is just terrible. We have no backdoors. We have nothing. It’s ok to give up some hands when the situation is unfavourable.
I would definitely not 3 barrel this hand. Spew. If you are compelled to run a bluff (and I prob wouldn’t) I think you are more likely to fold out hands OTT than OTR after checking turn.
Maybe 4! bigger pre. It might be that he has a skill edge on you post. It's sensible to charge him rather than allowing him to realize his skill edge just so you can stick to "correct" sizing. I've seen players who were very good post, but got over confident and would call bets that were just too big. What if you made it $320 here? I think this could solve the problem because, if he calls $320 with A5, ok, fine. If he folds, you win with no rake.
Also haven't opened spoiler.
4! a skosh bigger. Not because "Pro!", but because you're OOP. Doubt it matters tho.
I think we're supposed to downbet flop on T95 two-tone, but all our range is supposed to have on this is an OP. 3! IP can have TT/99, we usually don't. And if we get raised, we're probably folding. So, starting with a x, even if AA-KK. Regardless, it's fine how you got to the river. V's sets and 2P should've raised by now or kept betting turn.
Problem AIUI, is most of V's continuing range beats or chops with you (various JJ+, some lower PP, AK. Along with some AQs/AJs, A4, KJ/KTs 3! stuff you do beat.) I don't have a good handle on how much of V's 3! IP range calls vs a 4!, from a tight player, and how much of it V folds or 5!s.
TL;DR: I think you're beat or chopping on the river, so you need to bet. H has 810 back, 880-ish in pot, so it's a shove.
Now, to read results.
(Read results. Lol at me not recognizing that an A5 bluff combo makes a pair here. But, doesn't change the read that we're beat on the river.
I think V is full of it saying they call when the river makes a bd flush, the nit shoves on them for pot, after x-ing turn on a double-flush draw, and V has like 4th pair. Sure you do, buddy.)
Grunch:
PRE - seems fine, though when he 3B's to over 4x, I could see sizing down somewhat with our 4B size, maybe making it just $180 or $200.
FLOP - theory says we're supposed to range bet for a fairly small size as the pre flop 4B'er. Think we could probably just bet $100 here, and I might even check sometimes, on boards like this, where our opponent is probably going to have more sets than we do.
TURN - as played to this point, I think checking is good. V should want to bet his 2P+ for value and protection.
RIVER - as played, I think we have just enough showdown value to check and evaluate. I would think V would bet turn with value and his flush draws, at least some of the time, so I would plan to call most reasonably sized bets, maybe up to 2/3 pot. If he goes polar and bets large, I probably fold.
Played fine. You can debate flop size and if you use that size you probably check some with your hand. I agree we have showdown value on the river. I would probably go closer to 3x 4b size pre.
I don't like villain's gigantic 3b in position and I don't like his call of your 4b.
I would cbet as played, and no you don't have to always double barrel it's based on your opponent's reads and range and I don't think he would fold much of it if we jammed the river with that runout (especially after checking the turn, it looks just like AK).
I always use the term "Pro" very lightly, most people even every day regs aren't worthy of that status. This guy seems more like a reg/button presser than a good winning pro (from the small sample size), but that's just me.
idk man. if you 4b and cbet, id probably run it post here. you should be super tight here given positions / stacks / sizing pre, so would not give up the non horrific bluff combos. dont think turn is supposed to be a jam as preferred sizing
Results:
Spoiler
Turn and River were both checked down. V showed Ah5h to take the pot. I talked to him today about the hand. He said he had decided he was going to call me on the turn if I shoved. I'm not sure if he is remembering how deep we were. But it sounds like he is saying he was going to call a sizable bet from me.
I think you played it fine. He's going to have more TT/99 in his range than you will. He happened to have A5s, which I'd think would be a fold pre, but maybe not.
If you jammed turn, it would be for less than pot. If he thinks your range is limited to big over-pairs for value, and AX for bluffs, I don't know if he's supposed to call with just bottom pair, when he's blocking some AX, and unblocking JJ-KK.
I would think the bigger takeaway here is to manage your bet sizing and SPR such that you can bet three streets, sizing up on turn and river, so you can put max pressure on the parts of his range that don't connect with the board in a big way.
If we 4B smaller pre, and either c-bet smaller or just checked the flop, the SPR would be more manageable getting to the turn.
