1/2: Exploitatively betting “same bet” when turn brings an action killer card?
$300 eff
V (UTG, some unknown lady) limps, I go 15 AA UTG1, BTN BB and UTG call
Flop (60): Q64xss
Cbet 25, only UTG calls
Turn (110): Kx
She checks, I bet 25, call
River (160): 2x
She checks, I bet 25 again, she calls
Worst turn in the deck, feel like we get tons of folds if we bet anything larger.. same situation on river
Is the “same bet” okay to target Qx for crying calls instead of making the more standard sizings?
10 Replies
Worst turn in the deck for you is Qs.
Unblocking top pair on this two-tone board, and with only one opponent left to act, I'd probably c-bet larger on the flop, like 1/2, if not 2/3 pot. I don't think anyone is folding Qx or a flush draw to that sizing. It's not GTO. It's exploitative of the game size (small), and the population tendencies (they call too wide).
As played on flop, I probably barrel turn, but for 1/2 pot again, to give V a chance to x/r all her 2P.
As played on flop and turn, what in the serious f**k are we doing betting $25 on the river? She obviously has some sort of hand (probably a Q or K), or a missed draw. The missed draws are going to fold if we breathe on the pot, so we should be targeting Qx and Kx for value. I'd have bet 1/2 pot again.
The only reason to go same-bet on turn is to induce hyper-aggro opponents to raise light. There's just no reason to do it on a brick river, after our small turn bet gets flat called again.
I don't think the K turn is that bad. She has a lot of combinations of KX of spades. She will turn some combo draws with JTss, T9ss, ATss as well. If QX of spades is available, that hand will not fold to any sizing. I would definitely size up on the turn and make a good sized bet on the river.
Kx is only an action killer if she called with TP OTF, and if she limp called pre with Qx, she probably isn't the type to fold to a reasonable bet when it becomes second pair. Meanwhile, all of her FDs will still call a reasonable bet. I'd go about 1/2 pot.
That said, I agree with docvail about the flop and river, though IDK what he means by "give V a chance to x/r all her 2p." Everything else in his post is spot on, imo.
Kx is only an action killer if she called with TP OTF, and if she limp called pre with Qx, she probably isn't the type to fold to a reasonable bet when it becomes second pair. Meanwhile, all of her FDs will still call a reasonable bet. I'd go about 1/2 pot.That said, I agree with docvail about the flop and river, though IDK what he means by "give V a chance to x/r all her 2p.
I mean give her KQ combos a chance to announce themselves with a check-raise on the turn.
Yes, but OP's smaller bet isn't getting as much value from her hands that don't check raise. We want to bet the largest amount that she'll call with worse hands, that's still small enough to induce her better hands to raise.
The tiny turn bet will get raised by better, but we're letting worse realize equity for too cheap a price. This same size bet pattern is leaving money on the table.
Agreed. Also, unlikely with a V described as "some unknown lady, but some Vs will raise "same bet" OTT with worse. As it usually means "I am afraid, but also feel like I have to continue betting,"against most Vs I raise with my entire range.
Agreed. Also, unlikely with a V described as "some unknown lady, but some Vs will raise "same bet" OTT with worse. As it usually means "I am afraid, but also feel like I have to continue betting,"against most Vs I raise with my entire range.
Couldn't agree more. I tend to be hyper-aggro when it comes to attacking weak-looking bets. I'd be raising all my PP's, Qx,and all my draws on the turn.
So, say she raises turn. Now what does OP do? 3B? Just flat call? Then what does OP do on the river if she bets again? We're in no-man's land when we bet turn for the same size we bet river.
The fact that she limped UTG is enough to think she's a bad rec-fish, who'll call a bigger bet with Qx, Kx, all her flush draws, and maybe some worse 1P's. If she's not going to raise with value, and she's not folding worse, we're losing value by not betting bigger.
