Dry flop x/r from TAG - Easy stack-off or obvious punt?
1/3 NLHE 9 handed
Table had some whales and they all got gutted and left and now the table is full of good regs. Two LAGs
Once we get to the turn I don't mind our jam at all. We've only got a little over a PSB left, there's draws, his check indicates we likely have the best hand, etc. What, we should bet like lol 1/3 PSB (giving immediate correct odds for flushes to draw) leaving lol 1/2 PSB for the river? Check with just a ~PSB left? Our commitment decision is being made on the flop; we shou
i pretty sure thats how solver approaches these spots (the smaller than jam bets) to exert positional advantage over multiple streets / be able to bluff
if you're willing to look at an analogous solve, try nl500 40bb (it will mimic the turn spr here) and look at btn vs bb where btn bets 3/4 and faces a x/r. turn spr is like 1.1 and oop checks and look at what ip is doing sizing wise. its like 37% check, 26.5% b20, 21.8% b33, 7.1% b50, and 7% jam. so id probably just simplify that down to a small size and i guess occasionally exploitatively jam hands that do much better getting folds but would still need to call if they bet tiny
I need to study more on defending vs check raises. I dont really get it how solver wants to go for more value OTT, that must mean I'm stacking off with KK here.
I need to study more on defending vs check raises. I dont really get it how solver wants to go for more value OTT, that must mean I'm stacking off with KK here.
i mean kk is absurdly strong hand here given the board. is not a perfect recreation of the situation for a few reasons (larger open size, sb calls so bb supposed to be tighter, people live are bad pre in general so maybe dont always sqz qq, probably call q8o here more than 0%) but if u look at like traditional button open and bb call, on q83tt bb has 2p+ somewhere around 2-3% of the time. the 6 never really helps him either except for 63hh
i mean kk is absurdly strong hand here given the board. is not a perfect recreation of the situation for a few reasons (larger open size, sb calls so bb supposed to be tighter, people live are bad pre in general so maybe dont always sqz qq, probably call q8o here more than 0%) but if u look at like traditional button open and bb call, on q83tt bb has 2p+ somewhere around 2-3% o
Can you describe the pros/cons across flop and turn of having vs not having the Kh?
Have Kh - more likely to call flop x/r because backdoor equity, more likely to fold to turn jam because block flushes?
This is the read: Turn is basically of a brick, making the board a bit more straight drawy but still all the flop draws are there ... so all of the range that x/r flop is likely going to continue, so when V doesn't we have to think about why. It's possible that V has like Ah5h/Ah3h type hands that don't think they'll get enough folds to bet again and so want H to check back or
Ok I’m not sure fully understand what you’re suggesting - do you think you could provide the range of hands villlain bets on turn and the range they check with?
As is my understanding is you’re suggesting something that seems to contradict itself/be impossible so I assume I’m misunderstanding, which is why I’m asking for more clarification.
Basically it sounds like: when we bet, villain prophetically folds everything we’re ahead of and call everything we’re behind.
So the is just mean the betting range never has value and villains always checks their entire value range?
Or they have a perfectly balanced strategy such that the group of value hands in their check range is always ahead and they expertly fold anything they’re losing to KK.
Can you describe the pros/cons across flop and turn of having vs not having the Kh?
Have Kh - more likely to call flop x/r because backdoor equity, more likely to fold to turn jam because block flushes?
would think it's because KK without a heart needs more protection so decides to get the money in on the flop
it looks like a consistent heuristic. if u take a look at the 100bb sim (yes i know this is different spr / context than your hand) it will more or less pure b/c KK. but on a brick 6 turn if oop bets large it will jam KK without a heart and call KK w heart. (the same with AA)
Raise bigger pre. Make it $15.
C-bet smaller on flop, like 1/3. Obviously call the check raise.
As played, I think we can bet turn, but not all in. I might bet just $50, with a plan to jam most rivers, if the draws all brick.
V's flop x/r is repping 2P/sets for value and draws that don't pick up additional equity on the turn. No real reason to jam when all his draws fold and all his 2P/sets just snap it off.
