99 UTG vs Loose BTN 3-Bettor. Did I miss value?

flop seems like a clear fold to me

would think best case scenario its neutral ev and you're just going to under realize over the course of turn and river. river is probably a jam in theory but usually feels gross in practice in my experience

small flop bets followed by larger turn bets is pretty standard - i wouldn't read too much into it vis a vis his holdings

if you're going to play there a lot then you need to make the call on flop otherwise he can easily cbet bluff for less going forward - if you're not going to be a reg in this room then you can profitably overfold there despite it being a small bet (you're never good on that runout nor able to call future streets unless you hit bingo as you did)

as played, with so little behind, i'm jamming river and hoping villian feels forced to call with less

Agree with rickroll. Definitely calling that little flop bet. Shoving river, too.

can u guys show an analogous sim where utg continues > 25% of the time vs this size flop bet?

seeing this size cbet would make me think he's very good as it looks like it's a thing and most people just default to 33. i guess u could argue if hes not betting 20 w range this is more likely air heavy but even if he's range betting otf this is still a fold and should be a very common / studied spot

It's live. Yes, it's 5/T, but that doesn't always mean the players study poker. Often it means they can afford to play 5/T 😉 V could be betting small with a ton of holdings. Personally, I don't like his small bet here on this very draw-y board unless he does have it locked up, so maybe it was a bad call? Maybe river is a call?

hes supposed to bet range w some mix of b20 / b33, his sizing is good i dont really see too many people go this small compared to 33 which makes me think he studies and hes also described as a 5/10 reg so would imagine from a probability standpoint he is decent at minimum

i dont play this high but i doubt you missed value unless villain thinks you can bluffraise rivers.

The flop is 2-suited but you call it rainbow, and then you said the turn brought a flush draw when it didn't...

real quick - is this the same villain from the hand you posted with 88 in the BB? if yes, the "3betting frequently" description for villain is important to the analysis of that hands imo and would make me lean towards call with a lot more confidence.

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i cant properly give a good response to this hand until you clarify the turn bringing FD - did you mean straight draw? but i feel like that doesnt make sense still given your thought process stated etc. could you just take a second to edit the suits/clarify the situation?

but barring those points - board doesnt change by the river JQ still the nuts and i'd say villain bets larger w/ the straight given texture of flop (If thats correct suits etc).

so as played im shoving river but I do expect villain to find a fold unfortunately more than we want.

I think ch/raising turn and shoving river could be even better though.

offhand but related comment: if you're playing your playing moreso from your range vs your two cards, you should be raising those tiny bets with a much higher frequency than you expect with a healthy amount of semibluff/bluffs in there.

I dunno. Seems fine to me.

Sorry everyone, made a mistake on the suits. The flop was rainbow and the turn opens a flush draw

Different villain, same table

Yeah. I agree with all of this. GTO has 99 as a mix between call and fold, and youre OOP to a good studied pro, so you probably just fold due to the rare forum skill DISadvantage reasoning lol.

The only thing you got going for you is that most people dont 3 bet polarized or wide enough, which usually is bad, but it does make them a bit less strong on K high board specifically since they arent 3 betting hands like K7s, so his 99 and JJ and A5s type hands make up a larger amount of his range.

Anyway, the flop call is fine, id just lean fold. i think check/call turn check/jam river works well.

just a quick thought here: i think the important piece i'd like to ask OP about is: does villain's 3bet on BU include offsuit QJ or only QJs? If the latter, we can better build a case for raising on the river. i keep meaning to spend more time with this hand and just end up getting distracted by real life **** to focus on but will try to come back as i did make a miniscule addition to the convo prior and am now doing jsut that again.

You've posted some good hands.

My first thought on this one was to check raise the turn big. But I'm not sure the stack sizes work well.

A day later, I still think cr, but maybe just to 400. I'm not sure about the sizing.

He really isn't gonna put you on 99, 33, kk or QJo. There are a lot of draws available to both of you.

He could have you beat, of course. But you aren't deep enough to be really afraid of set over set imo. You have 10 outs vs a straight.

I think you get value from kj, kq, kt, aa, AK and some draws.

I kinda feel more confident playing the river oop as the aggressor with a bit over half pot left, than just checking to him and letting him dictate.

I guess you want him to bluff all 3 streets if he ever does that here. I think you played it fine. I think a call on the river I'd ok.

However, my feeling is maybe your more nutted hands can call turn and go for the river CR, hoping to both pick of bluffs and cooler him.

This hand can extract value now from a lot of weaker holdings, but it shriveled up on the river cuz he might not be betting KQ, KJ, etc. He might even check AQ or aj. So better to charge those now than just let them play perfectly.

Thanks for the responses. I still think the best option was to check the river. I haven't played much with this opponent, but I saw he was being overly aggro in position a couple of times. Anyways, this is how the hand ended:

I would fold flop, just not enough going on here even vs the small size. Unless you notice he splits sizes on flops and/or he has like, AJo pure here. Yes he will have some hands you are ahead of, but most of those hands have tons of equity, and even his marginal made hands are way ahead like QQ, JJ, AT, QT, JT, etc.

As played probably just raise turn while you can get called by flush draws which are going to be nut flush draw, pair plus flush draw, combo draw. You can also rep those hands by raising turn.

River is actually pretty close between just jam. 475 more kind of feels like the price where people don't bluff a lot but they also might fold AA, AK.

Seeing reveal now obviously just calling turn worked out, knowing how wide he was, it was a good move.

I don't know where you are playing or if you are going to be playing more, but you seem like a for profit player interested in getting seats in good games. You should generally not make someone show their cards. You never know when you're going to be in a position to network, even if it looks like all the public games are good now. Later that day or 6 months from now someone at the table might offer you a seat in a good private game, but they saw that you made someone show and decide against it. 6 months from now the public games could dry up. It may seem like everyone at the table is a nobody, but they might not be. They might have the keys to a good game in 6 months. Even if the chance is very small, you always want to avoid burning bridges. Your potential downside could be huge.

I mean, id generally let someone muck, but im not always gonna reveal my hand if im hero calling and they are first to show. Considering youre oretty sure youre good, just table your damn hand. BUT, i will say that this whole thing matters much less when its a pro, and based on the hand he had, id say V is quite good.

I don't play these stakes, but I don't like 20% pot on a wet board that favors his range. You would want to build the pot and to some extent protect your hand with AA/KK/TT/AK. I know solvers go for small cbets generally.

I would raise the flop, because it is so wet. Both of you can have draws. The small cbet makes me discount somewhat a set or OESD on the flop, and you aren't that deep to worry to much about gii behind.

I would call the river, because I don't think he takes the largish sizing for value with much that you beat.

I don't think he has to show once you show. This seems real common where the bettor on the river waits for the caller to show and mucks. Not sure about that part. In tournaments, the bettor will often muck when call without waiting.

He had position, but I don't like 3-betting Q6s. Would prefer to 3! light with a hand which would be a marginal fold or marginal flat call, like Q9s or something.

I mean hes likely 3 betting Q6s because hes got a big edge and is pushing it. (Whether or not thats a sound decision on his part is up for debate, but id guess hes winning a good amount overall even if he isnt when he 3 bets against UTG with Q6s)

This may be a subtle nuance, but in a situation like this, where we turned a set with a card that also completes a likely draw, I think I'd just remain silent until V rolls over his hand, goes to muck, or otherwise hesitates to show.

Once we announce our hand and V goes to muck, I wouldn't ask to see V's cards simply out of curiosity. I have to feel like there's real value in knowing how wide he was, which usually means the guy's been overly active or aggressive, to the point that I don't care about the optics of the situation.