1/2 PLO AAxx 3 bet pot on trips board facing river CRAI
I have villain listed as average. Not a fish, not a crusher, but competent. They don't have a history of making crazy moves, my image is probably on the tighter side.
Hero HJ 100BB effective
Villain UTG 100BB
OTH
Preflop: Hero has A♥ A♦ Q♥ 2♥ in HJ
Villain raises to 3.5BB, 1 fold, Hero 3 bets to 12BB, 4 folds, Villain calls
Flop: K♣ T♦ 3♦
villain checks, hero checks back
Turn: 3 ♣ (pot 25.5BB)
Villain checks, hero bets 15BBBB, villain calls
River: 3♠
Villain checks, Hero bets 21BB, Villain shoves, Hero?
I am really unsure what to do here. A 3 seems pretty unlikely. Given the way it's played, is this a mandatory call? I feel like people are so underbluffing these spots.
11 Replies
A 3 is unlikely, but not impossible. But you're also losing to KK and TT, both of which are quite possible. Not tough for villain to put you on AA and assume that you'll bet turn and river with that runout. The paired turn means that he's likely not calling with draws like diamonds/clubs/ QJ9x (plus you have Ad and a Q, which block two of these draws). I agree that this spot is underbluffed, and would expect to lose here if I call almost always.
River seems like an exploit fold. But flop is a great spot to start betting to credibly rep the dry ace later while getting value and protection as well.
Bet the flop. Very easy c-bet. An easy fold if raised - he'd have to have hands like QQJx with diamonds a lot, which you block, before you'd consider calling. The A♦ is your license to bet - it also means you can slightly discount draws from his range when he raises you, and you can barrel a Q or ♦ and his calling range should be pretty weak, as this is a drawy board and he'll want to get all his strong hands like TTP+ in on the flop.
As played, turn bet probably good, river bet probably good, this spot is highly underbluffed and this does come under the category of 'crazy moves' he doesn't have a history of, given all the draws that have missed and the fact you're repping a decent bluffcatcher. The most likely bluff we can give him credit for is KT. I think he's more likely to have quads here than that.
I don't like betting this flop. Your hand has way too much equity to be turned into a b/f. You're also "dominating" all the straight draws.
On the river, hear me out. Range pot.
Hand is played fine except I bet the flop. River is a fold -- way too underbluffed. He probably checked because it's the only way he thought he might make a little extra.
Put me in the fold camp generally. Next time put in $$’s instead of big blinds. It makes a significant difference in player pool tendencies.
I have villain listed as average. Not a fish, not a crusher, but competent. They don't have a history of making crazy moves, my image is probably on the tighter side.Hero HJ 100BB effectiveVillain UTG 100BBOTHPreflop: Hero has A♥ A♦ Q♥ 2♥ in HJVillain raises to 3.5BB, 1 fold, Hero 3 bets to 12BB, 4 folds, Villain callsFlop: K♣ T♦ 3♦villain checks, hero checks backTurn: 3 ♣ (pot 25.5
hasn't been mentioned so far, so i'll just say it:
don't like the river bet. why?
you'll never get called by anything worse, so you only risk to get CR ... which is exactly what happens.
also, PS:
As the wise poker gods always say:
when they CR the river, they always have it ... ;-)
I would check the flop esp with the AQ - bet/folding this would suck when we have the Ad. The problem with this spot is we're capped with basically the top of our range and yet he's shoving. He's uncapped and also x/c the flop - you would think if he had some equity bluff he would bet the turn. There's not many hands he gets to this river with that he could jam for a bluff - maybe Kx, maybe he had clubs with like QQ/JJ and decided to x/c. If his image is on the tighter side I would fold - a board that runs out like this is beneficial to your range more so than his, so wouldn't expect a tight player to get crazy here.
bet-folding when we have only 3 outs to the nuts and are near the bottom of our range for equity and he's got one less possible draw is a fantastic result.
AKTx,KQJT,KT98 is really only combos that take this line and have the right blockers to x/jam.
tough spot, he shouldnt be calling pre with too many dangler 3s so TT and KK are most likely especially if your image is tight.
also its 52bb to win 149bb. he needs one bluff combo for every 3 value combos.
if you think hes capable of bluffing probably a cry call but if youve never seen him get out of line then its an easy fold. also can bet smaller on river, you bet almost 30% of your remaining stack. i would of went 15bb. problem with that too is that holding AA we block the hand we want him to have (AK) so is river even worth betting? if he turns KT into a bluff, we block AK, whats he supposed to call with QQ? seems dicey idk
