2/5 PLO low full house in 3 bet pot
Villain I have marked as an average player. I don't have a good read on them despite a decent sample size. They might view me as a bit of a call station but not sure.
100BB effective
we are 4 handed
Preflop: Hero has Q♥ 7♥ 6♠ 3♠ OTB
1 fold, Hero raises to 3.4BB, SB folds, BB raises to 10.6BB, hero calls
Flop: 7♦ 7♣ 3♣
Villain checks, Hero bets 7.12BB (1/3), Villain calls
Turn: A♥
Villain leads for 11.83BB, Hero calls
River: 5 ♥
Villain bets pot (59.5BB), hero?
I am trying to think what this player could reasonably have. Does he turn A♣ X♣ into a bluff? I kept think it has to be AA. Is this too nitty? Is this a sigh call?
12 Replies
I would fold this in this kind of game. AA will play exactly like this and people at these stakes are just not aggro enough with their potential bluffs and also will just cbet a lot of their draws themselves which takes some bluff candidates out.
Also note you have no blockers at all to AA.
I would fold this in this kind of game. AA will play exactly like this and people at these stakes are just not aggro enough with their potential bluffs and also will just cbet a lot of their draws themselves which takes some bluff candidates out.
Also note you have no blockers at all to AA.
What should be villains bluff in theory? Ax maybe with some FH blocker like a 3?
That would be way too tight. So with his 3betting range and flop c/c range, how much of that range is AA? Gotta be like 30-50%. It would not be unreasonable to bluff every A with a kicker below Q. But I also think this is a spot population will massively deviate in all lines so
For starters IP will not stab nearly enough pure bluffs on this board
OOP is going to c/c way too weighted towards AA
I mean this would be a textbook line from an average player with AA. I would size the flop larger - I doubt he's ever x/f this board. I don't think he's turning Ax into a bluff - most clubs would bet the flop. Really the only hands that MIGHT take this oddball line would be KK/QQ/JJ type hands. Also keep in mind if he's 3bing 10%, about 20% of his range is AA, and if he's 3bing tighter there's even more so he does have AA a fair amount. I would fold .
Are we just folding on the turn or only on the river once he leads both streets?
I think we should be betting larger on the flop as well.
Are we just folding on the turn or only on the river once he leads both streets?
I think we should be betting larger on the flop as well.
I was thinking about folding just right there on the turn. It feels a little weak but it’s not crazy I would say. One thing that helps a call is plenty of players at these stakes will not follow through their bluffs enough.
I bet bigger on flop and I probably just fold turn, especially with reads.
I don't like hero's call on the turn because it will lead to this exact situation where most villains are expected to bet the river. I rather put a small raise and fold if villains reraises. If villain calls, the river will most probably goes check/check, (either because villain naturally slowplays his AA or fears he is beaten by A7).
As played i fold
I don't think you can fold the turn to a 1/3 psb.
I don't like hero's call on the turn because it will lead to this exact situation where most villains are expected to bet the river. I rather put a small raise and fold if villains reraises. If villain calls, the river will most probably goes check/check, (either because villain naturally slowplays his AA or fears he is beaten by A7).
As played i fold
Raising shuts out his bluffs and builds the pot for his AA, which btw beats A7.
It is exactly my point. As I understand you don’t want to block them from bluffing, fair enough, but as played, how do you know they are bluffing?
A small reraise OTT uncaps hero’s range and IMO clarifies the situation. A bluff from villain becomes very unlikely
I will fold to any subsequent bet from villain whether OTT or river, and If villain calls my reraise OTT and checks the river, I will check behind. Therefore, in no case I am building the pot.
I'm still not convinced that "average" players lead turn for 1/3 pot with Aces-full after x-calling flop. Then again, I don't see many average players potting river as a bluff. Anyway, folding turn seems a little odd. Folding river seems standard.