TD: pat or draw to J7432 on 3rd draw versus draw 1
I saw a situation in a WSOP video where the BB drew 1 on 3rd draw and the button had J7432. Is this a draw 1 to potentially make a stronger hand or a hand where you know where you are at better?
BB had 3! predraw and drew 1. Button raised after 1st draw and drew 1 to 7 perfect, and then bet after 2nd draw, so the pot was pretty big.
3 Replies
This was from the PPC and Negreanu stood pat, it was checked through after third draw, and his hand was good. You have a slightly better chance of having the better hand by patting. However, I think drawing is a little better. For example, there is the possibility of getting multiple bets in if you make a wheel. There was already a lot in the pot, which is a factor for patting.
It also matters how much they have behind in their stacks.
You are such a small favorite with a Jack that the implied odds are worth drawing when drawing smooth, for CeV.
You said it was a tournament; patting is the lower variance play, so with ICM it is much closer, and often right to pat.
One thing I don't see often when this exact spot is discussed (and it is in almost any primer on 2-7) is that when we draw, we sometimes have profitable bluffs as well; particularly when we pair our 7.
I'd guess some of this is player dependent as well. If Villain is a station, we get more value when we improve; if Villain is a nit, we can win the pot more often when we bluff.
Just like in NL Holdem, playing nodes where Villain is unbalanced is profitable; so if we DO know Villain will be unbalanced on the river, playing more volatile rivers in position makes sense. I guess that also applies to their tendencies if we pat; whether they over bluff or not matters as well.
