Israel/Palestine thread

The USA sells KSA weapons. KSA is the biggest foreign buyer of american weapons.

There is a mutual defense assistance agreement in place since 1951.

There is a Trade Investment Framework Agreement in place since 2003.

Israel is also unlikely to agree with our assessment on their long term viability. It's not like Israel has crossed some line and there's no coming back even if they are making huge mistakes here.

What is contrary to the "official line" here?

Dont forget Turkey.

Well Raifiki says they're running out of bombs and need to mobilize the orthodox and that's just playing around with little Gaza. Get the right (wrong actually) leader in a resurgent Syria, Jordan, Egypt or something down the line that wants to go jihad and add Hezbollah in the mix all at once and they'll more than have their hands full.
They'd be wise to start heavily diversifying their weapons suppliers.

Do you really think the Arab govts and people woke up one day and think they dont mind a Jewish nation in the heart of the Ummah after all?

I would say the current detente is one of strategic necessity due to the realization Israel is technological superior (right now) and allied with a superpower that is vastly superior technologically and militarily. Also, doesn't hurt there is a common enemy, IRI.

All of these factors can and will eventually change. And this isn't even addressing demographic realities; both inside Israel*, the Palestinian territories, and in the greater world abroad.

Unless the Arab/Islamic world goes through a reformation I really dont see a long term path forward for Israel. And things mostly seem to be going the other way, with the paradoxical exception of Iran**.

*Israel's long term survival is probably threatened just as much as their own rightward turn politically/socially and the growth of the Haredim population as anything the Arab world is doing.

**Maybe it will all come to nothing and the IRI will somehow outlive the US and Israel, but it seems each generation of Iranians is becoming less and less interested in Islamism, and more and more interested in joining the modern world, and the mullahs are getting very old; so at some point it seems something is going to happen.

Egypt was probably never as committed to peace as we would all like; and the people seem to be internally embracing Islam and Islamism. Seems very realistic Egypt could turn into a hostile, failed state like Yemen or Lebanon. But with much greater military technology due to decades of US providing weapons.

Same thing for Jordan. The monarchy seems committed to peace for its own survival; but the people themselves are really embracing Islamism.

dont forget france

I think our interpretations of "running out of bombs" and "need to mobilize" are different. I think that Israel "needs" to do these things not because they need them directly for Gaza, but because they always need to be prepared for that worst case scenario and having these things makes them more ready for it.

Israel and Hezbollah are constantly testing each other, and if Israel begins dipping into their stockpiles for the doomsday scenario then they hit a level where Hezbollah's tests get more severe and an all out attack gets more likely. Israel is currently above that level and they are still flush with bombs, but if for some reason that level begins to drop then things could get real bad.

Israel isn't running low on bombs, they're reaching the point that they could begin losing the tests.

Islamism seems like a boogieman. Most of the original people, outside of the occupied territories opposing Israel were secular as well as a lot of the Palestinians.

I'd argue it has an awful success rate and the attempt would require escalating horrific actions. The outcome far from guaranteed and extremely risky for israel.

We aren’t at war with Hamas. They aren’t our enemy

I think the historical role of political Islam and religious motivated xenophobia in the belligerence against Israel has been very understated by liberals. But even if this was true, it doesn't address the current political landscape very well.

In 2024 pretty much all the hostility against Israel is being done by Islamists for explicitly religious reasons. And support from the worldwide Ummah for Islamists fighting Israel is high explicitly for religious reasons. And IMO calling this a "boogeyman" is not a very accurate portrayal of the current state of affairs.

not a boogieman, just the latest iteration of antisemitism in the area.

I quoted the wrong post. I meant to quote a different post asserting Israel's actions will just radicalize more Gazans and perpetuate the conflict.

As long as people keep believing this convenient falsehood nothing can change.

Even if people do accept that, what changes?

I assume you mean "don't".

If people understand that this is a political problem with a religious background, not a war between two religions, they can start to consider political solutions ie compromises.

No, I mean "do", but thanks for the answer. I agree with you.

I don't understand what religion having anything to do with why people choose to fight here really matters. Seems like there's a good amount of it on both sides.

Map shows the division of the West Bank into 165 prison compounds.

I guess the intifadas weren't a good idea.

I had already mentioned them.

Because religious calculus can be irrational for very long.

And you can't compromise with people who are actually (not only rethorically) willing to have their children die for their causes in any amount, for generations.

When people who provenly act like that tell you they want you and your family and your friends all dead, you gotta believe it's true. Not a chest pounding form of negotiation.

And you gotta act accordingly.

They have been since at least the Eisenhower admin