TPTK facing minraise on the flop
So I follow the heuristic that turn/river raises live are always underbluffed, but here I find myself in a trickier situation:
Blinds 1/2, I have 220 in my stack and there's three whales at the table, full ring 9 players.
I get dealt AQdd UTG+1 and with one limp from a whale I raise it to 16. BTN calls, SB calls and UTG limper calls.
Flop is 8sQc4h and it checks to me, I CB 40 and BTN minclicks it to 80, with 70 behind. Folds back to me and I shove after some deliberation. I'd snap shove here any day online but live I believe there's some merit behind saving the rest 110 as an exploit as nitty as it sounds.
When it comes to villain, he was a younger guy, I've seen him get out of line on some flops but he also made some big folds vs me before so it's a mixed bag.
Thoughts?
6 Replies
Smells fishy. If he's only got $70 more behind, I'd just decide if we're going with it, and if we are, I'd stick the rest in. No sense in letting him see the turn if he's on a draw.
Like, if you call, are you checking to him on the flop, allowing him to decide if he wants to take a free card and see the river for only another $40 on the flop?
Of course, I don't disagree. As I wrote, I shoved because I had the same thought process.
The question is, are we ever good here vs a minclick on a dry board (what draws can there be except a gutshot?) I don't see him doing this with 2 people to act behind (SB and UTG). That's why I was wondering if saving my 110 would've been the play
TPTK at this stack depth.. the money is going in all day
To nitpick tho, you could bet smaller on flop since its dry and multiway.. around 40%.. maybe then you can find some bet/folds.. but still super tough with TPTK at this stack depth
If you’re folding AQ here, you’re probably also folding AA/KK because they’re the same hand strength wise. So then are you only calling off with QQ/88? Seems super tight.
It's funny you mentioned those hands because I obviously thought he had a set once he clicked me and snap called my shove, but he ended up having AA in this spot. Yes, he flatted AA and I assume his plan was to allow the whales into the hand and just go nuts on any flop I guess
Your line is fine
TPTK is automatic vs short stacks (low spr)
You don’t want to exploit yourself.
In my pool, I’d put the money in, but think I was likely beat.
“My guess is 2pair”, as trips is less vulnerable & lets you keep betting. Decent chance of 2nd/3rd pair or worse kicker stabbing & thinking they’re smart saving a little when you commit. Would TT, JJ do this?
I don’t think any reads are strong enough to break the math on a spot like this.
PMD - postflop minraise of death. This is always just a milker bet. They never do this on a wet board since they dont want you to draw out, but on dry boards they arent worried about it.
