Strong equity, Clear fold?
1/3 8h 400e
MP LAG opens 15
Young, sharp but likes to gamble
BTN LAG calls
MA, business like, plays position
Hero knows these players and they know him as tight and not expected to get out of line.
Hero defends BB with Qd-8d
Don’t chime in fold pre. I know, but that’s not the point as this gets interesting.
(45) 6s2cQh
H check, MP 35, BTN 150
Hero clear fold
But when I decide to evaluate this hand, I realize that against each range individually, I have near 70% equity on this flop. Check me if you will, but it’s still a clear fold based on the multiway action.
Any input?
Just a bit confusing though the answer seems clear.
11 Replies
I don't know what ranges you're assigning them, but you decided to not get married to top pair when real money went in, and that was a good move regardless of what equity you think you're giving yourself.
I have near 70% equity on this flop.
lol wut?
Maybe you have 70% equity based on knowing the flop vs the ranges you gave each of them pre-flop but you need to modify those ranges based upon their bets on the flop just as you modified the value of your exact hand by taking the flop into account. You do NOT have 70% equity versus either player on the flop given betting.
Fold pre.
Fold flop.
Sorry if they showed up with 77 and K♥T♥ or some other nonsense, but still x/f flop is a trivial decision.
Maybe you have 70% equity based on knowing the flop vs the ranges you gave each of them pre-flop but you need to modify those ranges based upon their bets on the flop just as you modified the value of your exact hand by taking the flop into account. You do NOT have 70% equity versus either player on the flop given betting.
Read this several times OP, it's fundamental.
Fold pre
So when does this get interesting? Because so far this super standard.
Tip, playing crap hands OOP is giving money away.
Bonus tip, top pair no kicker is crap when real money goes in.
The only reason this a thread is because OP was miraculously ahead at some point post flop.
What range is raising from the button that you have 70% equity against? Even if we assume that MP is just c-betting 75% pot with 100% of his range, you barely have 70% vs him with a 20-30% opening range. I doubt MP is range betting 75% pot into two opponents, that seems a bit suicidal. There's probably a better position (and maybe cards) to take a stand if he is range betting that large and that frequently.
I can't imagine a range that is raising MP that you have anywhere close to 70% equity against.
When the flop landed, before the betting began, I had a lot of equity in theory which simply surprised me. That was the focus of my desire for feedback. Why?
Seems like the computer would have factored in the ranges of my opponents and realized I couldn’t be ahead much in this spot.
It was a bad float that would have cost me a lot if the action didn’t tell me I was beat. Pretty sure the button had a strong queen and the other villain probably air. It was all mucked.
I get some answers that I find pretty dumb or maybe posters like to point out they think I’m dumb, but it’s all because I can’t express myself clearly enough. I’m trying…
No, after the betting, my equity of course drops. I’m saying when the flop drops, before the betting begins - my top pair carried too much weight in my analysis.
This is a terrible flop for the hand with no draws, yet it was favored (before anyone bet) and I thought that odd.
You may be 70% against the full scope of the other two ranges IF you were HU against either.
But you’re never 70% vs two other hands and given the narrowing of their ranges which we can do given their bets…
I’m quite sure this is true
I was looking at each range individually
I don’t know how to calculate my equity vs combined ranges.
It’s not a big deal, I just thought it was interesting, an example of a float that hit the flop, but turned into a clear fold.
Would have thought nothing of it until I saw that on the flop I was 65% against MP and 67% against the BTN before any bets were made. It caught my eye that weak top pair was considered stronger than I would have expected on that flop.