2/5 on Royal Caribbean: TPTK facing flop x/r

dislike kk line quite a bit. tbh think you would learn more looking at that hand than this one. i think both the line and the sizing(s) chosen are fairly clear errors, both conceptually and ev-wise

a) you didnt see ak
b) what would that really change except maybe hes more likely to spew bc hes tilted

would call and see turn but i wouldnt faullt a jam, would imagine this is worse for value given size / dynamic some amount of the time

solve as you. i looked at ante /rake free sims to try to get sb / bb wider than normal. is worth about 30$ to continue in some capacity

Call flop, make sure the rest goes in on the turn.

If you are going to go with this hand, better to 3-bet jam the flop.

Grunch:

PRE - I seem to recall hearing the rake on cruises is obnoxiously high. If so, goddam it bro, raise bigger.

FLOP - He x/r'd 4x to $100, a nice round number. A 4x x/r doesn't seem "so big" to me, especially if V is raising for value. I'd think anything less than 4x would be kind of small.

You said there was barely any 3B'ing going on. Were people mostly folding, or mostly limp-calling? In a loose-passive game, I wouldn't rule out T4o or T3o in the blinds, much less T4s or T3s, especially when you only open for 3BB's.

When I see someone flat pre with AK, I try not to let that make me think he's trapping with big hands pre. Very often, he just doesn't have a 3B range beyond AA/KK. It also doesn't necessarily mean he's over-folding trash hands. His pre-flop limping or calling range might be 70%.

If we were deeper, and especially if I thought V was capable of raising worse for value or raising with a draw, I'd continue to the x/r, but think about over-folding to turn barrels, depending on the sizing. Folding more vs bigger, less vs smaller.

Since we're not that deep, it makes this spot a little more dicey. It's impossible for us to improve to a nutted hand if he's got 44/33, and damn hard if he's got T4 or T3. I'd hate to call off the $100 and fold to a turn barrel, even a small one.

I'd be asking what worse hands he'd be x/r'ing here. We block some combos of AT and worse TX. To be fair, we also block some T4/T3 combos. But he could have all the combos of 44/33.

What would his bluffs be? 65? 52? A2 or A5? Some air ball? If he flopped an OESD, would he sometimes come out and donk? What about if he flopped worse TX?

I dunno. In theory we're probably supposed to call. If there were two clubs on board or we had a ATs with BDFD potential, I'd be happier continuing.

As it is, when we don't even know if an A or T on the turn changes anything, and the guy who accused us of being nitty is x/r'ing off a short stack, I think it would be okay to let this one go.

I might do something else in a poker room, but on a cruise ship, I fold to the x/r.

My reasoning is that these games don't run often and are very fragile, likely to break at any moment. If I lose a big hand, the game is unlikely to run long enough to give me a chance to recoup. I might have to stew on the loss for the rest of my vacation.

With the abusive rake and my less than optimum mind set, I tend to avoid poker on a cruise. Those games also often have floors and dealers who barely know the game. I once had to argue 20 minutes in a hand I folded pre, that the 2 players with a flush card did not have the same A hi flush when the board 5 flushed.

Also, unless I have other reads, I'm going to assume a semi drunk rec is playing face up. Odds are he's ahead of TPTK. You can't rule out ATC like T4 with these fools. If he bluffed me, OK, it will probably embolden him so I'll get a better chance to catch him later.

Hard to fold on the flop given this is a "fun" player but if the example hand is typical then his usual mistakes are calling, not being overly aggressive with marginal hands. True, he could be looking for payback and wants to put a move or he's convinced you can't have "it" this time... Tough to give a range here but do you feel like he'd do this with 65 or JT?
If so, you can call and make sure the rest goes in on the turn. I think a shove only gets called by better, given that he "knew" he was beat last time and Negreanu-called to confirm.

Yeah but take a look at the XR in this sim and ask yourself if you think it’s accurate to what this guy in the cruise is doing. I doubt it.

I just exploit fold

Would likely fold preflop, but after hitting this flop, I suggest you fold to the x/r as an exploit to the guy that points out you’re tight.

Once called out like you, I raised 9T on a JJT flop. He started moaning really - I’ve got a ten, turns over AT and tossed it. That was pretty extreme, but I think you’re facing value.

If you decide to go with the hand (willing to put the money in) I think you best call the x/r

I’m the one accused of being over-aggressive, but if you jam in this spot, you only get called by better hands. Give villain a chance to do something and you might make more.

Summary from OMC
1. Fold pre - you would fold A9o
2. Fold to x/r - why would he bluff you
3. If you continue (call or raise) then all the money has to go in, so call and give villain rope
4. If you jam, no worse hands will pay you

At first I was thinking call, reasoning that he could be doing this with worse Tx, even though it's fairly unlikely with this player type. It's made even more unlikely given that he raised to a full pot-sized bet, leaving a little over a pot-sized bet back (danger, danger!). Doubtful he's doing that with worse Tx. So that leaves 65s that wants to commit, maybe an overpair, and two pair+. I don't even need equilab to know we're not doing well in that case.

i dont really see any reason to fold based on the op and this would be a very, very large adjustment

really all i see in the op is v is a rec who is losing and drinking. that doesnt really strike me as the player profile to make huge folds to

Thanks all. I jammed because I thought he could do this with worse Tx that’s never folding. He rolls over KK.

LMAO.

This is 2/5 on a cruise ship. Low stakes fish tend to be passive, and their raises strong. That means this is at least close. He definitely could have a draw or a worst T. However, yes you do need to deviate for from GTO here.

KK isn't that surprising. This sort of player may not know to 3!. There aren't so many 3!s in low stakes games.

I think I'm gonna try to cultivate a drunk cruise ship rec image in my land games. It's gotta start with the look, what do I need?

Cabana clothes. Zinc oxide. Flip flops. An ugly hat. An air of unearned entitlement.

i mean you're 80bb deep with tptk on t43r vs a rec thats drinking and stuck. it really isn't remotely close. the thread doesn't get made unless he lost the hand but that doesn't mean that you should fold here. i promise you if you routinely fold this based on the evidence provided in op you are getting run over everywhere

low stakes cruise ship isn't some magical different game where the laws of poker / math don't apply.

i say this in just about every thread but if you guys were clairvoyant / capable of outthinking the computers on a regular basis you wouldn't be stuck at low stakes

At low stakes, you need to make adjustments that fish tend to call down and their raises are stronger. So villain is likely to call more with KT or a draw. Not saying this is a fold. However, villain showed KK, which indicated he was playing passively preflop.

you bet more than 1/2 pot and got CRd anyway. thats a pretty big flag that you're beat. guessing folding flop is best.

i get that but op is nit looking for validation in the thread which is why it got posted. if your default is to fold here i think you are making poor decisions all over the game tree

if your takeaway from the hand becomes fold every single good hand when v raises me at small stakes what is the point of talking about poker or strategy? also if you can manage to outperform 5+bb decisions consistently over the solver you would win at literal super user rates and win all of the money / move up to nose bleeds. i do understand people have less coherent strategies at small stakes and trend more passive but recs do things randomly and the history / player profile / probably 25 hands of history lifetime with villain don't warrant nearly the level of adjustment that people want to make in the thread. i posted the ev of the decision to show the level of confidence you would need to deviate here. think like nit reg at your casino you have played 100s of hours with. not some random yahoo on vacation who you have played 3 orbits with.

i dont really post as actively on here anymore but all of op's threads that i've read tend to be very very black and white thinking of if villains put in any aggression they have nuts and will fold ~range-nuts to aggression, and i think thats an extremely large leak. realistically the threads just seem to be posted for confirmation of those beliefs but i dont really think that's necessarily how poker is played or at least should be approached in a discussion / theoretical setting

too much ado about nothing in the thread though. i do think if the conclusion is b/f the flop and ignore my point that kk is blundered multiple times, probably op continues to spin his tires and 2p2 continues to be posting purgatory

About half of the hands I post are winners but I think, or am sure, I made an error along the way. Others post winners as well wondering if they got full value.

So your computer failed this time and based on your other posts in this thread, you seem angry that everyone doesn't agree that the computer should reign supreme all the time.

Reads have their place and value, IMO. It doesn't upset me at all if you disagree. In fact, I'm happy for you that you've found a playing style that makes you happy and works for you.

why do you think my posts are angry? there isnt much i can do if u guys are unwilling to accept the math, but idc how you approach the game lol

i only elaborated in additional posts because someone responded to me

It is obviously exploitable to fold here. Villain actually showed KK, which means his 3! range might be AA or nothing. If you went by a solver's response to 3!, you would get an answer that would not work well in practice. Maybe not a good idea to 4! A5s. Even when you have a HU pot, which a solver can handle, the recommendations do not account properly for loose passive play of opponents.