For over a century, the best tool to use if you were betting on boxing has been your own eyes. Watching events live, on film, tape, or video allowed you to compare fighters and identify the best practitioners. Today, you can call up every important fighter of the last century within seconds. An entire career and indeed life is right in front of you. You can see how fighters’ styles evolved throughout the years. One can watch Sonny Liston in his prime and note the incredible combination of power, stamina, and one of the hardest jabs ever seen in a boxing ring. Fighters like Sugar Ray Robinson in the 1940’s and Muhammad Ali in the 1960’s produced major changes in the sport regarding defense and the use of speed as a weapon. At the same time, it is interesting to watch fighters backhanding their opponents in the 1930’s, an approach that looks strange today.
If you were betting boxing fifty years ago, you were attending fights or closed-circuit events, watching televised bouts and trying to find out as much as possible by reading Ring Magazine. You purchased a copy of the Ring Record Book each year so you had fighters’ records on hand and could compare common opponents. The book carried each fighter’s exhibitions as well as fights. Newspapers had dedicated columnists devoted to the sport.
By the 1970’s, the cable network HBO began broadcasting fights. The next decade brought the advent of the VCR and pay-per-view. Early adopters would have boxes full of VHS or Beta tapes so they could watch fights over and over again, looking for hints of greatness or signs of vulnerability.
Today, whether it is MMA or boxing, fight libraries are available. Like any speculative endeavor, the ease of use means gaining an edge is more difficult. At the same time fighters enter the ring many fewer times than in years gone by, meaning you have less video to look at.
In the time travel book 11/22/63 by Stephen King, the protagonist supports himself by betting on sports, boxing being one of them. (He bets against Dick Tiger in a fictional bout.) I am sure everyone would like the advantage of knowing what happened before you make a bet. Still, looking at historical events, the odds and the factors that influenced who was favored is useful. Technology has changed the world, but human nature remains the same. Patterns persist; different styles generate more betting support than others.
Like any endeavor you are looking for a low takeout, larger recreational betting interest, and some misconception or edge that you can use to succeed.
Past events are more than just history, they are a data pool with odds and results, and as such can increase our understanding of future events.
A Bet and a Mystery
A narrative that has persisted through time is that in 1919 Jack Dempsey’s manager (Jack “Doc” Kearns) bet $10,000 (a little over $150,000 in 2020 dollars) at 10 to 1 odds that his fighter would knock out champion Jess Willard in the first round. It is an interesting wager in that Willard outweighs Dempsey by over 50 pounds and has reportedly never been off his feet in his career.
We don’t know exactly what occurred but dating back to the first third of the 20th century the bet is repeated in books and newspaper articles. Sometimes particulars are mentioned, sometimes not. Dempsey himself affirms the scenario in his own recollections of the fight. A few articles will contest the tale, but it becomes part of the story whenever the July 4th, 1919 fight is mentioned. A notable part of this saga is that Kearns puts some of Dempsey’s pay on the line without consulting the fighter beforehand.
Looking at newspaper accounts at the time yields quite a few different offered bets on the fight. The New York Times has Willard a 5 to 4 favorite the day of the fight. The paper quotes bets at 12-1 on Dempsey ending it in the first and 3-1 that he wins by knockout to end the contest. Other papers note bettors who back the challenger struggling to find takers for their bets as well as a lack of Willard money. The Universal News Service syndicate reports from Toledo and lists different Dempsey propositions: 20-1 that he scores a knockout in one round, 5-1 that he stops Willard in three rounds or less. A bookmaker named John Ryan is quoted two days before the fight as saying he expects Dempsey to enter the ring as a 1 to 2 favorite. (Ryan is named by multiple sources including Dempsey as the man who booked Kearns $10,000 bet.)
The thing you notice immediately watching the fight is just how much faster Dempsey is than Willard. He moves quickly in and out of range attacking the champion and then lands a devastating left hook. From there the challenger does everything in his power to end the affair in the first round. It is one sided, the only question becomes whether Willard will survive.
For a person who wagered on the fight, several variables are in play. First off, it is a blazing hot July 4th, the temperature above 100 degrees. This and Willard being quoted as saying he did not do any of the traditional roadwork to prepare might put you in the camp that the fight might not go 12. Additionally, he hasn’t fought in three years and is 37 years old. The bell to start the match is not heard, a fact that will be impactful as the round ends. Dempsey, the more active and smaller fighter dominates, knocking down Willard seven times. In an era where there is no neutral corner rule (The advent of this rule will become prominent for Dempsey in the famous Tunney long count fight some years in the future.), the challenger does not allow his opponent to recover.
Willard is counted out as the round ends and Dempsey is declared the victor and leaves the ring. It is announced that the round ended before Willard was counted out, however. The fight goes on. Dempsey may have shot his bolt in the first, but the tone of the fight never changes, and it ends when Willard does not answer the bell for the fourth.
The bet itself and damage inflicted lent credence to the rumor that somehow Dempsey had loaded gloves, which Willard apparently believed throughout his life. This culminates in a 1964 Sports Illustrated article that excerpts a posthumous book by Jack Kearns. In it he claims that plaster is mixed in with the tape of Dempsey’s gloves, and that Dempsey was unaware of it. This was done to ensure his bet. The 82 year old Willard finds vindication in Kearns’ admission while Dempsey terms it ‘ridiculous’. He states that he taped his own hands and Willard’s second observed this.
Complicating the story is the fact that the Kearns/Dempsey management arrangement ended acrimoniously in a flurry of lawsuits in the mid 1920’s. Dempsey also advised other fighters to avoid using Kearns as manager because they wouldn’t end up with any money. Dempsey’s version of events was backed in 1948 by Willard’s chief second Walter Monoghan. He confirmed Dempsey taped his own hands in his presence in the dressing room and never left his sight on the way to the ring. Willard then inspected Dempsey’s hands in the ring, according to Monoghan. Interestingly, the scenario he is refuting is the exact same one that would emerge in the Kearns excerpt 16 years later.
In the wake of the 1964 story, a North Carolina man also said he had saved Dempsey’s original wraps as a souvenir and they were plaster free. The man who had the gloves from the fight also speaks up in favor of Dempsey’s version of events. An attempt to reproduce the method Kearns claimed was used to apply the plaster and fails.
In 1965, Dempsey reportedly received a cash settlement from Sports Illustrated in order to drop a $3 million libel suit against the magazine. The magazine also stated since publication “no evidence has come to us to support the tale told by Kearns” and that they “wholeheartedly accepted Jack Dempsey’s denial “.
Still, when Dempsey died in 1983 the charge was featured prominently in many obituaries. At various times, Willard also claimed that Dempsey had an iron bolt in his glove, which he claimed to be the only reason he was knocked down so many times in the fight.
Looking at newspapers of the time, it is interesting how prominent the betting action is. Odds are continually explored along with estimates of the handle. The sport enjoys huge popularity and fight news is carried on the front page of major papers. Especially prescient is a column attributed to former champion James Corbett that notes observations that Willard is older and slower than four years earlier and that in the first round Dempsey’s speed and tenacity will determine the outcome of the fight. Indeed, if In-Play betting existed the first minute of the fight would have seen a massive shift in odds.
The reign of Dempsey represents the bridge between the era of 40 or 50 round fights and the sport as we recognize it today. He ushered in million-dollar gates and lucrative guarantees for fighters. Dempsey was one of those fighters that captured the public’s imagination. The boxer is identified with the decade he reigned as champion, the 1920’s. Still, he would fight only nine times in the decade (he also fought numerous exhibitions), a much publicized and speculated upon match with Harry Wills would never materialize. Instead, Dempsey would lose his title to Gene Tunney after a three-year layoff along with the rematch in 1927. (Horse racing fans will note that he trained for the 2nd Tunney fight in Saratoga Springs in a camp by Saratoga Lake). Dempsey would attempt comebacks by fighting exhibitions in the 1930’s and would still be fighting in his mid-forties.
Dempsey/Willard points out all the unknowns faced when betting. The bout contained many of these. On Willard’s part the impact of age, a major layoff, questions about motivation in training, and money issues leading to accepting a fight are relevant. There is the fight with Jack Johnson, which Johnson would later say was thrown, and has been debated ever since. In any case, Johnson carries the action during most of this fight, raising questions about Willard dealing with speed. With Dempsey, the quality of competition was questioned as well as whether he could carry his power in a match with a much bigger man. There is also the suggestion that his popularity in relation to the unpopularity of the champion accounts for betting support. The confusion surrounding the end of the first round points out the many things that can go wrong when bets are made tailored to specific rounds. Also, it points out knowing who the people making decisions are whether they be referees, judges, or timekeepers.
Both Dempsey and Willard would live into their late 80’s. Willard died in 1968 and Dempsey in 1983.
Finding Value in History
The historical record has value in itself. In the 1940’s and early 1960’s, Willard would launch lawsuits related to the showing of his fights. That many of these exist at all is that people saw value in film libraries. For a few, this would end up being very lucrative. One of the defendants in a 1962 suit covering the Dempsey/Willard and Johnson/Willard fights was a man by the name of Jimmy Jacobs (The suit was later dismissed.)
Jimmy Jacobs, who was co-manager for Mike Tyson in the years as he rose and then won the heavyweight title, established a huge fight collection that includes many of these early fights. (He has also been described by many writers as perhaps the greatest handball player of all time.) It is a study in how a passion project can create value. Beginning at the age of 17 in 1947, he began acquiring boxing films. The search saw him purchasing films and film rights from museums, collectors, and fighters from around the world. The assemblage eventually reached tens of thousands of fight films. This collection combined with that of Bill Cayton was eventually sold to ESPN in a deal valued at over $80 million in 1998. (Jacobs died in 1988 and was inducted into the Boxing Hall of Fame in 1993 as a non-participant.)
Jacobs also collected comic books, another area where rare items sell for $10,000 and up. Whether it is books, art, media, or data; the returns can be great. Having an eye to what will carry value in the future can have gigantic dividends for patient souls.
A pattern that has emerged is that media eventually can have far greater value as new technology widens reach. We have seen this in recent months in music as Stevie Nicks and Bob Dylan have sold publishing rights to their music catalogs. The former for was $100 million, the latter estimated at triple that figure. Streaming music platforms have greatly increased the value of back catalogs.
Fight libraries continue to have value and they are prime components of streaming platforms dedicated to combat sports.
Conclusion
We may never know the exact circumstances surrounding a $10,000 bet said to have been placed a century ago. The motivations, variables, pitfalls, and opportunities in betting on high profile events persist to this day. History may not point out the answers but can guide one as to what are the right questions to ask.
