In this article, we are going to discuss paying off on the river in limit poker, and in particular some common misconceptions regarding these “crying calls”. If we hold a bluff catcher and face a river bet into a nine big bet pot, we should almost always call, especially if our opponent has any chance whatsoever of holding a busted draw or pure bluff.
However, there are some situations in specific games and line-ups where we can somewhat confidently narrow down the universe of hands our opponent will be betting for value and those he would bet as bluffs. And if the ratio of his value hands when compared to those that he is bluffing is very high, we can and should make astute folds even when getting a really good price.
Below, we will look at an example of a value to bluff ratio, but let’s first discuss some of the more general common erroneous advice related to calling on the river.
“Folding the Best Hand is a Ten Big Bet Error”
I really hope that people don’t believe this statement as its completely results oriented thinking. In order for this to be true, it would mean Villain never has any value hands, which of course is absurd. But it is said with enough frequency that it definitely needs to be addressed.
On the river, we are getting 10 to 1 odds indicating we need to hold the best hand greater than 9.1% of the time to profit by calling. Let’s assume in this specific situation we actually have the best hand 15% of the time and make an incorrect fold. In the long run, 85% of the time we will save one big bet and 15% of the time we will lose 10 big bets for an average net result of -0.65 big bets.
If we completely misread the situation and have the best hand 25% of the time, the net result is -1.75 big bets. Making a decision in a limit game that costs you 1.75 big bets is pretty bad, but it’s still not even close to a ten big bet error.
Now if we only hold the best hand 5% of the time we gain 0.45 big bets by making a correct fold. Saving almost a half big bet in these spots really does add up so we should not be afraid to muck our hand when the Villain has very few bluffs. There are certainly situations against specific opponents where the bluffing frequency is extremely low, if not zero.
When we do choose to call, it should be due to a measured unemotional assessment on your part that the particulars of the current situation indicate the probability that your hand is good is more likely to be closer to 15% than it is to 5%. It should not be done out of a fear in making a ten big bet error and not being able to sleep at night.
Calling in Order to Sleep at Night
If you play a lot of poker, the outcome of one hand should not affect you that deeply, but we should always be cognizant of the intangibles in play. Folding the best hand and being shown a bluff can be damaging to your psyche and negatively impact your future play. It may also hurt your image, and give your opponent a surge in momentum. Meanwhile, picking off a bluff can sting your opponent and possibly start a rush of your own.
None of us are emotionless robots and if the situation is close, you should err on the side of calling, especially in a live game where you may be more susceptible to being shown a bluff. However, if your opponent was making a thin value bet, he will also gain confidence from your call. And we should never use this as an excuse to call when our probability of us having the best hand is way lower than what we require given the pot odds that we are receiving.
“He Might be Bluffing thus You should Call”
This statement is way too simplistic. The key question to ask ourselves is what is his approximate value hand to bluffing ratio? Sure he might be bluffing, but if he has twenty value hands for every bluff we would be wrong to call only getting 10 to 1 odds.
The Value to Bluffing Ratio
In limit Deuce to Seven Triple Draw Lowball (27TD), it is a somewhat common occurrence for two players to be drawing one card on the final draw. On the river, the pot is somewhat sizeable and most players adhere somewhat closely to what many would consider to be standard strategy. First to act, players tend to bet any Ten- (or Jack-) or better low for value, bluff their worst hands such as straights and the highest pairs (Sevens and Eights), and check everything else.
Suppose we had 2346 heading into the last draw and end up making a pair of threes. Our opponent who was also drawing one leads out on the river, and we have a decision getting 7.75 to 1 pot odds. With these odds, our hand needs to be best around 11% of the time in order to make a profitable call.
Many players will follow a generic strategy where they will call up to Ace-high or a pair of deuces, possibly raise-bluff a pair of Sevens or a straight, and fold the rest. However, using card removal we can handle these river situations in a more nuanced and effective fashion.
It is important to consider our holding and the cards that we have seen throughout the hand. Since we held 2346 heading into the last draw, we couldn’t have seen any of the Sevens or Eights along the way, which makes it more likely our opponent has at least one of those cards and possibly paired one of them on the end. Pairing the Three on the last draw also makes it slightly less likely our opponent has filled his hand.
Let’s assume our opponent had 2578 heading into the last draw and will value bet any Jack-or better low and bluff a pair of Sevens or Eights. Under these assumptions, his Value to Bluffing Ratio would be as follows:
Value (20): Threes (2), Fours (3), Sixes (3), Nines (4), Tens (4), Jacks (4)
Bluff (6): Sevens (3), Eights (3)
Value to Bluffing Ratio: (20)/(6) = 3.33 to 1
With a Value to Bluffing Ratio of 3.33 to 1, we have a clear call on the river getting 7.75 to 1. Even if he only bluffs top pair, the ratio would be 6.66 to 1 and we are still getting the correct odds to call. We can also easily tweak the ratio above for any other change in assumptions or to reflect other cards that we have seen.
He won’t always have 2578. However, when we unblock both Sevens and Eights, it’s likely he has at least one of them. And as we have seen, we are getting the right price to call even when he only has one high pair with three live “outs” to bluff.
If we are the one holding 2578 and have seen both another Seven and an Eight, it is much less likely our opponent is betting a high pair on the river. Thus we should tend to fold, especially if the turn was checked through and we are getting lesser odds.
Many players approach the river in a robotic fashion when they would be best served taking an unemotional and thoughtful approach constructing what your opponent’s probable value to bluff ratio looks like. When doing this, we can play the river in a much more efficient manner, folding when the time is right but make correct calls in situations where others may fold.
