Editor’s Note: This article was first published in the April, 2013 issue.
Did you ever wonder what poker is going to look like in the future? No one will ever know for sure and predicting the future is worthless unless you are going to use the results to better yourself in some way. I think that we can make some reasonably close guesses, and come up with a few ways to continue to reap the benefits of the game. In poker, as in many endeavors in life, a person has to adapt to changing conditions in order to at least hold the status quo. Plus, to advance you must progress ahead of the competition. When I think about the future in poker, it applies to the general trends that we will see in the months and years to come.
Players are learning the game more quickly than in the past. This is simply because of all the information that is so easy to access about the game. The internet has made players progress in their game to much higher levels than ever before and will continue to help players to do so. From the wonderful books that have been constantly produced to the websites that contain ever increasing information on improving your play, people have been exposed to advanced concepts that would have been only learned through experience before. Look to a much larger player pool of winners than ever imagined and overall tougher games because of it. To compete in the future, a player needs to join the winning crowd and improve along with them. Failure to put in the effort will almost certainly lead to total loss of bankroll over time.
The rake from the casinos will continue to increase. In many rooms, it has more than doubled over the last twenty years. It would be expected because of inflation for that to happen. However, the stakes need to increase as well if the player is to compensate for the increase in rake. It has not done so. Actually, except for the highest nose bleed games, the games in the casinos are the same or smaller stakes. In addition, many of the games have capped buy-ins that are small in relation to the blinds. Hopefully, players will make enough money to start higher stakes games and can convince the casinos to spread those games. Most casinos believe it is in their best interest to keep the games small so that they get most of the money lost through the rake. I believe that by providing more games that can be beaten by good players, it generates a pool of winners that come in and start games and keep them going.
Although there will be vastly more skillful players out there, as poker spreads there will be many more very bad players as well. This may keep the small stakes games still profitable as long as the poor players keep coming back. Also, keeping the bad players from getting better is important. More than ever, I see table talk about the hands and how they were played and should have been played. We used to call that wising up the live ones. That is exactly what it does. It starts to make them think during the hand and when they think, better decisions come from them and that means less money is lost. Most so called live ones are very intelligent people and are playing for fun and rarely give much thought to improving. Table talk about the play of the hands gives them a new insight into poker and they take interest in that and improve an amount according to their desire or ability. In any case, if the players you expect to make money from start to improve, your return in the game goes down. To preserve your win rate in the future, do not school everyone at the table about your playing strategies. All it can do is come back to haunt you. Recently, the player to my right asked the live one why he didn’t raise him on the end with such a good hand. Well the very next hand he did just that and told the player to my right “I did not make that same mistake twice”. I loved it.
It seems regular players that lose at a small rate over time tend to play smaller and smaller stakes every year. This is because, after losing so much, they soon realize they need to drop down. They prefer to play higher but their opponents often make comments and it becomes plain that they do not belong there in that game. Sooner or later, they find that playing smaller is more comfortable and their niche is found. This is a big loss to the games. Keep your mouth shut and make it fun for all in the game. Talk about things of interest and not things that make your ego feel better. How you and other players handle all sorts of situations to keep the game a fun thing can affect your long term outcome.
As more casinos open around the country and around the world, the player pool gets diluted. More players are created and that is good. At the same time, the higher stakes games are diluted as well and the overall size of the stakes go down. This means players must travel to where the bigger games tend to be. Sure there will be more small games that can be beaten but to eventually make more than a sliver of money from poker you have to move up. So, moving up in many places also means moving away or traveling farther. Maybe plan on numerous trips a year to the more lucrative markets. This should be part of any player’s agenda to keep improving and earning more.
New places that open tend to have great games for a period of time usually up to two years. The first year the games are amazing. This is a time to make a move to that area and capitalize on the bounty. A few new games are invented or resurrected frequently in some locations. This brings in new players and a few regulars that play the new game and take a long time to learn it. Small and large fortunes are won and lost in these new games before they settle down to the normal grind it out stage. It is very profitable to spend some time studying the game and getting in on the spoils.
Your poker future can be to stay where you are and play the same stakes and coast along. If you are happy with that, and many are, that is fine. Overall, if you want to increase your bankroll faster then making some adjustments to your life is in order. How much time you want to put in to keep up with the new talent and game conditions is up to you. I believe players that do will survive and be amply rewarded. Look at poker as if it was a business and it is. Business conditions change and a good businessman changes with them. You may have to learn more, play longer hours, move around the country, change your image at the table, and just be a better poker player to achieve long lasting success as the world of poker evolves.
