You’re holding J
T on a J
5
93 board. How strong would you say your hand is? Is it a monster with which you’re looking to play a large pot or a marginal hand you’d like to get to showdown cheaply? If someone bets, will you call, raise, or fold?
Hopefully, you recognize that I didn’t give you enough information to answer these questions. You don’t know how large the pot already is or how much money is behind. You don’t know how many players are in the pot or how many saw the flop. You don’t know what positions you and your opponent(s) are in, and you don’t know what the betting action was up to this point.
You probably understand at some level that these variables all matter, but most people struggle to adequately account for them when making decisions at the table. In this article, we’ll examine how each of these factors affects the value of your hand and how that should influence your decisions.
Stack-to-Pot Ratio
Whether your hand is strong enough to stack off is a function of the stack-to-pot ratio, what you must risk and what the reward for winning the pot will be. With $100 in the pot and $1,000 in the effective stacks, you probably aren’t looking to get all-in with any top pair, let alone with such a mediocre kicker. With $100 in the pot and $100 in the effective stacks, you should almost certainly get all-in. Whether you should have let the pot get so large with this hand is a separate question. Once the money is in there, your opponent is getting great odds to stack off with a wide range of draws and other hands, which gives you incentive to stack off with a weak top pair.
Positions
Position is not only a question of whether you act first or last. Even on the turn, it matters which position you were in pre-flop. If you raised in first position at a nine-handed table, then you have already shown a lot of strength, and your opponent has less incentive to bet or call with marginal hands. You could easily have a hand even stronger than JT, such as AJ or an overpair.
If you raised from the button and got called by the big blind, then JT is much stronger relative to both your and your opponent’s range. When you start with such a wide range, you are much less likely to hold a hand as strong as top pair, regardless of the kicker. That gives your opponent more incentive to give you action with weaker hands. So, you should be much more inclined to call or even raise with this hand if you raised from the button than if you raised from under-the-gun.
Previous Action
Starting position is just one example of how the previous action affects your current decision. It matters tremendously how much betting has already taken place. Each time a player puts money into the pot, their range gets stronger. If you three-bet before the flop with JTs and bet the flop, you have shown quite a lot of strength, and your opponent has little incentive to call further bets with hands weaker than yours.
Additionally, your pre-flop raise and flop bet have strengthened your opponent’s range. You have given him multiple opportunities to fold weak hands, and he has declined, suggesting the hand he holds is fairly strong.
If, however, this were a single raised pot before the flop and you both declined to bet the flop, then your ranges would be weaker and JTs a relatively stronger holding. Your opponent would have less reason to fear running into very strong hands like AJ and AA and consequently more incentive to call a bet now with more marginal holdings.
Players in the Pot
Most people recognize that it is harder to bluff in a multiway pot than in a heads-up pot. Less well understood is the corollary to this principle: it is also harder to value bet in a multiway pot. That is, you need a stronger hand to expect to be ahead if your bet is called.
This is because the average strength of a calling hand will be higher than in a heads-up pot. Even if only a single opponent calls your bet, that will be the opponent with the strongest hand out of two or more.
Similarly, you should expect an opponent who bets into multiple players to have a stronger hand than one who bets into you alone. He cannot anticipate much fold equity and must expect to often be called by a relatively strong hand. Consequently, you need a stronger hand to call or raise his bet than you would in a heads-up pot.
Because heads-up pots are common, your intuitive sense of a hand’s strength is likely calibrated for such situations. But in multiway pots, some hands that would be clear calls in a heads-up pot become folds, so you must actively consider this possibility when evaluating your own hand.
Even if the pot is now heads-up, it matters whether it was multiway on an earlier street. Just as a player who raised under-the-gun will have, on average, a stronger hand on the turn than a player who raised on the button, a player who bet into multiple opponents on the flop will have, on average, a stronger hand on the turn. Likewise, a player who called a bet in a multiway pot on the flop will generally have a stronger hand on the turn than one who called a bet in a heads-up pot.
The Question at Hand
Let’s look at a few examples to see how these factors come together to affect your decisions on the turn. In all cases, we’ll assume you’re playing nine-handed $2/$5 no-limit hold ‘em.
You open to $15 from first position holding JT. A player in middle position re-raises to $50, the Button calls, and you call. Effective stacks are $1,000.
The flop comes J59. You check to the raiser, who bets $100 into a $150 pot. The Button folds and you call.
The turn is the 3. You check, and your opponent bets $250 into a $350 pot. What’s your play?
You should probably fold. Your opponent has shown tremendous strength by re-raising into an under-the-gun open and betting the flop into two players who had hands strong enough to call that re-raise.
You have also shown great strength by raising in early position, by calling a re-raise, and by calling the flop bet. Indeed, it is hard to see how you could have a hand much weaker than the one you hold. Yet your opponent wishes to bet into you again.
Yes, there are a few strong draws he could be bluffing with. But would he really three-bet QT into an under-the-gun raiser? Would he really bet nothing but a backdoor flush draw into multiple players on the flop?
Even if he would, a range of strong made hands, which have you drawing nearly dead, and strong draws, which can easily improve to beat you, does not make for an appealing call. Sure, you’re getting better than 2:1 odds, but your call does not guarantee you a showdown. There is still a lot of money behind that your opponent can bet on the river to put further pressure on you.
Let’s consider another example. You open from the button with a $15 raise. The big blind re-raises to $50, and you call. Effective stacks are $500.
The flop comes J59. He bets $50 into a $100 pot and you call.
The turn is the 3. He bets $100 into a $200 pot. What’s your play?
You can call or maybe even raise but I wouldn’t fold without a very good read on the opponent.
Your button open in this example represents a much wider and weaker range than your under-the-gun raise in the previous one. Consequently, your opponent’s re-raise does not show as much strength, nor does your call of the re-raise.
When he bets the flop, he is betting into one player instead of two, which again shows less strength, as does your call. You still have a fairly strong hand relative to what each of you could conceivably have.
Finally, with just $250 behind after you match the $100 bet, your downside is limited. If you shove into a better hand, your losses are not so large relative to the pot. If you call and face another bet on a bad river, the pressure will not be as great as if you had $750 behind.
The same hand on the same board can be much stronger or weaker depending on factors such as positions and prior action. How you choose to play that hand may therefore change as well. It is important to maintain a sense of your own range and those of your opponents from the very beginning of the hand. Even if such details do not affect your current decision, they may matter in the future and can be difficult to reconstruct after the fact.
