Saratoga has survived many changes since opening in 1863. At certain times, it seemed the racing season was in peril. In 1943, a change designed to save resources for the war effort saw the Saratoga meeting move to Belmont for the duration of the war. In 1946, racing returned. There was a concerted effort to spruce up a track that had not been used for three years. Unfortunately, players were nicked an extra five percent county tax at the windows. The move saved area real estate owners from taxation, but unfortunately continued a trend of making the game more difficult for the player. A decade later, Saratoga was in peril again as lower revenue compared to downstate tracks threatened the removal of race dates. In 1957, a bill to expand the overall New York racing season eliminated the immediate threat.
More than sixty years later, Saratoga easily generates the most handle of New York tracks. This fact eliminated any thought of running the Saratoga season at Belmont. Fans or no fans, Saratoga will generate a different level of betting. The latter situation will prevail. For the city of Saratoga Springs, this will have a huge impact as restaurants, hotels, and retail stores will lose their primary source of income. It will be an extremely difficult year but racing will go on. In early June, the training track opened, and thoroughbreds began exercising across the street from the main racecourse. Horses had returned to Saratoga.
Saratoga 2020 will be a different experience but from a betting standpoint much will remain the same.
Schedule
Given the placement of the Kentucky Derby (September 5th), the Travers will move from its traditional place in the second last weekend of the meeting. At a mile and a quarter, trainers will have to decide if they want to run the distance four weeks before the Derby. Belmont winner Tiz the Law is being pointed towards the race. It is scheduled for Saturday, August 8th and anchors a card that will include the Grade 1 Test and Ballerina races. The meeting begins on Thursday, July 16th and runs through Labor Day. Many of the other Grade 1 events fall in their normal place on the calendar. The Woodward at 1 ¼ will fall on Saturday, September 5th the same day the Kentucky Derby will be run for 3 year olds at Churchill Downs. The Spinaway And Hopeful for two year old fillies and colts fall on the final Sunday and Monday of the meeting. The Alabama for three year old fillies anchors the August 15th card and the Whitney will run on the first Saturday of August.
It will be strange running this meeting without people in the grandstand but it retains the level of racing that makes it the country’s premier racing meeting. With journalists, trainers, and horsemen converging on the city, I imagine many traditional vacationers may find their way to Saratoga Springs anyway. The availability of sidewalk dining means restaurants should begin to rebound. FS1 and FS2 will provide wall to wall coverage. The handicapping challenge will be just as intense but you can do it in the place you feel most comfortable.
Power Ratings and Longshots
Last month we noted the effectiveness over the years in using a competitive power rating as a filter for your longshot plays. At Saratoga, the strategy has been particularly useful. Using filters of five and ten points at odds thresholds of 15-1 or 20-1 has been profitable. In short, the best (though volatile) returns have come with power ratings within 5 points of the race leader and above 20-1. Horses within 10 points but not 5 points of the race leader are profitable at only above 20-1. Below we examine horses within 5 points of the race leader at odds of 15-1 or above since 2011.
Saratoga, Odds 15 to 1 or higher, Power rating deficit 5 points or less, 2011-2019
Total |
WPCT |
$2 WNET |
$2 PNET |
$2 SNET |
156 |
8.33% |
4.19 |
2.47 |
2.20 |
Source For Power Ratings: Brisnet (www.brisnet.com)
The strategy has a low win percentage and will have losing seasons but it is a good way to quickly locate horses for further investigation. It is a bumpy way to succeed but has continued to work. As noted in previous years, eliminating horses with a closing running style increases profitability. Power Ratings combine many factors from speed and class to distance suitability. They can point out hidden virtues that might be missed in a quick glance at the past performances.
Odds On Debuts
The first start for a two-year-old is filled with promise. Often when a huge purchase price was paid, the first race can be an instant evaluation of future stardom. Hopes and dreams can be confirmed or vanquished in a little over a minute. Today with the widespread availability of workout videos and clocker reports, it is hard to keep a secret.
Where once an odds-on first-time starter was somewhat rare, this is no longer the case. In the past, first race odds carried a premium that implied all the difficulties of a young horse racing in a debut race. In recent years, we have seen everything from horses going off at 10 cents on the dollar to a new runner generating a minus pool to show. (This is where so much money is bet to show that the track will lose money if the horse finishes 3rd or better.)
More than once we have expressed the thought that betting every well bet debut is a losing proposition at most tracks. The summer seasons at Saratoga and Del Mar have been an exception. In the past, we have noted the ability of well-known trainers like Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher. Here we’ll highlight runners that take advantage of the Saratoga racetrack.
If you watch the way well-meant two year olds win in sprints on the dirt, it is usually by being prominent early and never backing up. This is a style that has been effective at Saratoga at distances of six furlongs or shorter. Between 2011 and 2019 at Saratoga, odds on two year olds debuting on dirt at six furlongs or less with morning lines of 3 to 1 or less have lived up to billing. They have won 31 of 43 races with a return of $2.43 for every $2.00 invested. It is an exceedingly high win percentage which is powered by the outrageous success Todd Pletcher has had this decade with horses debuting at odds on. Still, if we look at the baseline of two year olds debuting on dirt at odds on since 2002, of the tracks with 50 or more cases Saratoga is on top with a flat bet profit. (Del Mar is a close second).
We have two different forces at work here. One is a pattern that has been profitable, the other that it is so well known that it is depressing the odds, making an edge harder to gain. Well bet debut runners at Saratoga should be respected but digging deeper into workouts, possible competition, trainer proclivity is called for.
Tech for when you are on the Move
For me, Saratoga has often meant testing out portable technology. The key was always bringing a laptop powerful enough to do database work but light enough to be carried around most of the day if it was needed. My memories of preparing for the meeting are on porches down the street from the track or sitting in the backyard of a motel while cooking on a portable grill. These were always places where a large or heavy device would create problems. At the track, my favorite place is the Easy Goer lounge, an area with easy access to view the stretch but also close to the backside of the track. Again, I never wanted to be lugging a lot of equipment with me.
This is not a solitary pursuit. Much about the way we bet at Saratoga has changed over the last 30 years. Back then, television sets in the backyard were bolted directly into trees which seems bizarre in retrospect. Past performances were all in newspaper format with the Daily Racing Form the dominant entity. Most people handicapped on paper and raced to get in line to bet. A decade down the road and people began printing out past performances on paper. They still bet at the windows. A year ago, as I walked the track, tablets or phones were in abundance to both bet and for past performance information. Technology had made a day at Saratoga easier no matter where you were in the facility.
This year, the track may be out. Instead, you might find yourself in a friend’s backyard or sitting by a pool. Here are a couple of computers I have been investigating for when you are on the move.
Surface Book 3
When the Microsoft Surface Book debuted close to a half decade back, the product brought a unique spin on portable computing. It was a premium, nice looking device with a screen that popped off and became a large tablet. Like Apple laptops, you could find product placement in movies and television. If you watch the show Billions, you will often see Surface Books on the desks of traders and principals. It is now in its 3rd iteration and comes in two models, a 13.5 inch and 15 inch. Microsoft says the battery life is 17.5 hours between the two batteries, one in the keyboard portion the other in the tablet. What is nice is that you can run databases or spreadsheets using the tablet in a lightweight form factor. In reviewing the 12.9 inch iPad Pro, I had noted that the size was perfect for reading PDF’s of past performances. The 13.5 inch Surface Book boasts similar viewing real estate. Using the included Surface Pen, you can even mark your past performances up if you like.
Make no mistake though. It is premium in price as well. Getting one with a 10th generation Core i7 chip, 16 GB of RAM and a 256 GB SSD drive will cost close to $2,000. A 512 GB or 1 TB hard drive with 32 GB of RAM puts you in the mid $2,000’s. Still, with the long battery life and power you have a work computer you can carry in a folio that allows you to do everything you want to do. Additionally, the keyboard travel is deep, making for a nice experience if you do a lot of writing. As for weight, The 13.5 inch model comes in at a little over 3 and a half pounds with keyboard base attached. (Tablet is a little over 1 and a half pounds when separated.)
Dell XPS 13
If you are looking for small and light the Dell XPS 13 fits the bill. The bezel is razor thin, allowing for a 13.3 inch screen in a 11.9 x 7.8 inch package on the 7390 model. It weighs in at 2.7 pounds. There are a variety of options featuring both touchscreens and standard clamshell designs. The newest 2 in 1 touchscreen iteration houses a 13.4 inch screen in a 11.67 inch by 8.17 inch package. They all weigh in at less than 3 pounds.
On the touch screen models the hinge allows for a tablet like experience as well as tent mode. The latter allows for easy viewing of video or turning it into a betting terminal if you will. You can also pack a lot of power into the small form factor. The 7390 non-touch features a 6 core 10th generation i7 Intel chip, 16GB of RAM, and a 512 GB solid state drive. It is priced on the Dell site at $1149. That is a lot of bang for your buck. Dell also recently ran a coupon campaign that drove the price to under $1000.
I like the idea of a lightweight laptop slightly larger than a standard piece of paper that I can run SQL Server on with good response times. Depending on what is most important to you the XPS 13 will most likely run between $1,000 and $1,800.
Dell also has an outlet site where you can pick up refurbished computers at a discount. By checking it frequently you can often find a computer to fit your needs.
I have been carrying laptops into Saratoga for as long as I have had one. I can remember bringing a Toshiba laptop into the track and the security guard asking me if I was going to do some office work while I watched the races. That computer was a Stone Age device compared with the computing power you can now pack into a lightweight laptop.
Conclusion
Saratoga has survived the ups and downs of over 150 years of American history. This year, however, will be a first. The track will open, not to the roar of a capacity crowd, but rather a quiet grandstand with a small number of horse connections, workers, and journalists. People who have visited the track each year for decades will instead gather at homes and in backyards to bet their favorite race meet.
We analyzed some patterns that have worked at Saratoga and reviewed some lightweight laptops. While these are especially useful when you are travelling to Saratoga Springs to bet, you can haul them wherever is most comfortable to bet or handicap.
