March brought the shutdown of every major sport in quick succession like dominoes. Networks sought to fill air space with broadcasts of past events, virtual auto racing using professional drivers, and games of HORSE with NBA and WNBA stars. One sport did not completely shut down, however. Horse racing adapted quickly to the turn of events, operating in empty facilities, online wagering already established as the major source of handle. This did not happen without setbacks, as Aqueduct shut down, followed shortly by Santa Anita. The two foremost circuits were dark.
Though vastly fewer tracks were running, for bettors there was something to choose from seven days of the week. Normally at this time of the year, about 25 thoroughbred tracks would be running races. For most of April, there were two to five tracks running on weekdays and five operating on weekends. With New York and California unavailable, Florida and Oaklawn Park continued to offer high level stakes races.
In the middle of May, several tracks secured agreements to operate including Churchill Downs in Kentucky, Golden Gate in Northern California, Charles Town in West Virginia, Lone Star in Texas, and Santa Anita in Southern California. In quick succession, Ohio tracks Belterra Park and Thistledown received permission to open in June. Woodbine in Canada just outside Toronto set an opening date for June 7th. Belmont Park will begin racing again in the first week of June. The Belmont Stakes has been shortened to 1 1/8 miles and will be run on June 20th.
The races may have been run in front of quiet grandstands, but for at least a generation players have been moving away from the track. For the everyday bettor, little has changed other than the number of racecards available. NBC Sports Network picked up the feed from TVG to help fill the appetite for live sports. With a lack of sports betting available, racing had the chance to pick up new customers seeking to solve an intellectual puzzle for profit.
Upon opening with the return of Eclipse award winning mare Monomoy Girl on May 16th, Churchill Downs had secured alternating placement on the FS1 and FS2 networks for the race meeting.
In order to continue to offer sufficient races to gamble on, information providers have also highlighted International racing. Primers were created on the idiosyncrasies of the different jurisdictions. They also have been offering free past performance information for the foreign tracks.
With the different landscape and additional audience in mind, we’ll go over some differences betting on horse racing has compared to other pursuits. We’ll focus on the North American variety as it remains the product bet on by most players in this country.
Takeout/Cost
One thing that immediately becomes apparent is that the takeout level for racing is higher than sports betting. Depending on the bet most wagers have takeout rates from between 14 percent and the mid 20’s. This state of affairs developed over a century from rates that were once about 10 percent. As bets beyond win, place, and show were introduced they came with higher costs for the player.
Cost to play is the most challenging thing about betting on horse racing. It is a significant hurdle to overcome. A further impost on payoffs is breakage. This is simply the rounding of odds down to the nearest nickel or dime depending on the jurisdiction.
When betting on a track, it is important to be aware of the takeout rate. This information is available from the Daily Racing Form as well as the individual tracks. As a rule, win, place, and show betting usually has a lower takeout than vertical exotic bets such as exactas, trifectas, and superfectas. Horizontal bets like the Pick 3 or Pick 4 often have takeout rates in the twenties but many tracks have a low-cost Pick 5 or similar bet. This includes Pick 5’s at Santa Anita (14%), Gulfstream (15%), and Belmont (15%). Again, understanding your cost to play is as simple as looking up the relevant information before beginning to bet.
For players in jurisdictions with betting exchanges, this form of betting has the lowest takeout structure, running into the lower single digits on the European exchanges. Additionally, many large players receive rebates tied to betting action from advanced deposit wagering outlets.
The cost of data for bettors employing computers can be significant as well. On the plus side, past performances for cards you bet on are free at most advance deposit wagering outlets.
Sources of past performances and betting information include Daily Racing Form (www.drf.com), Brisnet (www.brisnet.com), and Equibase (www.equibase.com).
Favorite/Longshot Bias
Horse racing has a favorite/longshot bias wherein blind betting on short priced horses has a much better return than wagering on longer priced horses. We can illustrate this with the following table which lists the return figures from bets at different odds levels using a database of race results.
Return By Odds 2005-2020, North American Thoroughbred Tracks
Odds Category |
$2 WNET |
Odds On |
1.69 |
>1 and <= 5 |
1.63 |
>5 and <=10 |
1.58 |
>10 and <=20 |
1.52 |
>20 and <=40 |
1.36 |
>40 |
0.96 |
As you can see, the loss is much lower at shorter odds. The situation hides a paradox, however. The shortest part of the odds spectrum is the most efficient part of the market. Thus, traversing the rest of the way to profitability is difficult with the shortest priced horses. Attempting to profit at longer odds could be the better bet.
In previous articles, we have shown how the long odds ranges can be inefficient. Below we use Power Ratings which are provided in Brisnet past performances to illustrate this. We look at horses with a power number of within five points of the race leader (but were not the race leader) at odds of 20-1 or higher. We use a database covering most North American thoroughbred tracks over the last 14 years.
Odds 20 to 1 or higher, Power rating deficit 5 points or less, 2006-2020
Total |
$2 WNET |
14562 |
2.10 |
Source For Power Ratings: Brisnet (www.brisnet.com)
Using a value metric shows that indeed the longer odds ranges can be inefficient. Why is this true? The most straightforward explanation is these horses get much less attention from analysts and bettors. The bulk of published material and pre-race discussion focuses on horses of shorter odds. You are looking at the ignored and unloved in an attempt to find a few sparkling gems.
As a first step, looking at horses with competitive power ratings and digging into why they might succeed can bridge the gap to profitability. You can exploit this, but it comes with a downside. As the winning percentages are very low, your volatility is high. You will go through long losing streaks on the way to ultimately showing positive returns.
Speed Figures
In North American racing, speed figures are the most important performance metric used when evaluating horses. Their utility is significant because the numbers allow you to compare performances racing at different distances, surfaces, and tracks. With a glance you can get a gauge on who the best horses in a race are. The downside is that everyone else is doing the same thing. You have to derive edges from the way you use figures or find cases where the numbers do not tell the whole story. Figures are available from all past performance product providers. The most popular are the Beyer Speed Figures which are part of the Daily Racing Form. The popularity has an impact on the betting pools.
Speed Figures retain value, however. They can be used to instantly get a feel for the strength of a previous race when using a tool like DRF’s Formulator to evaluate result charts. Watching how a race was run can show you if a big figure is likely to be repeated or was a fluke. Looking at horses with strong numbers in past races can locate longshots that should be further researched. Comparing a horse’s figures to the par value for a race can help find vulnerable favorites to bet against.
Using multiple sources of speed figures can also give color to a race. Turf races are often run in a way that the most important part of the race is the last quarter. Beyer Speed Figures have been adjusted in recent years to account for this. Using these in conjunction with Brisnet speed and power ratings can give a fuller view of a field. Timeform figures are adjusted for pace.
Looking at subtle factors can result in better or worse wager value. In the table below, we look at favorites perceived to be the strongest runners. We examine odds on favorites that have a Brisnet speed figure advantage where the last race is more than 5 points above any of the competition’s last 3 races. We compare cases where the last race is above or below the par figure for the race. (Par Figures are included in most past performance products at the top of the page)
Odds On Favorites, Speed Figure Advantage Greater Than 5, 2003-2020
Category |
Total |
$2 WNET |
Above Par |
17806 |
1.85 |
Below Par |
5426 |
1.75 |
|
|
|
Source for Speed Figures: Brisnet (www.brisnet.com)
Below par figure horses are worse bets than those who exceed par no matter how big the advantage a horse seems to have. Figures are important but looking at them in the larger context of class, distance, and running style is necessary.
Competitive Level
Horses with strong performance metrics bet down to favoritism do best in races where the competitive level is weakest. This makes sense but it is often hard to gauge looking at each horse’s performance. Higher class stakes races have horses that have succeeded across many different tracks and class levels. Thus, it is often hard to back a horse at low odds despite a seeming advantage. At the opposite end of the spectrum would be races for maidens. None of these horses has ever won a race. Some never will. In these races, lightly raced horses with strong credentials are often good bets.
Running Style
The importance of early speed in North American racing has been emphasized over the years as the breed has increasingly favored a quick early turn of foot over stamina. On dirt, being in front means fewer bad things can happen. Horses with early speed also can establish a career earlier. Analyzing pace scenarios will often tell you how a race will be run. Past Performances now include pace figures to show you how fast a horse runs early in a race as well as running style categories. The latter allow for easy identification of where a horse will be prominent in a race.
If there are multiple early speed horses in a race, horses may duel and weaken later. If there is a lone speed horse, the entrant can steal a race much in the same way a breakaway sometimes succeeds in the Tour de France. As with speed figures the early speed advantage has been incorporated into the betting odds as pace and style information became a staple of racing information products.
In turf racing, especially at higher class levels, how a horse closes takes on greater prominence. The best turf stars often make huge runs at the ends of races, a style as visually appealing as it is effective. Looking at each horse’s individual final fraction in past performances and result charts can point out the late acceleration inherent in the best turf runners. Despite the problems, a bad trip or traffic trouble can engender, horses with a closing style and decent performance metrics can be very good bets.
Class
As speed figures ascended to the most employed factor in handicapping, class gained new relevance. The competition a horse competed against can give depth to an analysis of ability and future prospects. Where once this meant a deep understanding of the different race classifications on racing circuits, updated past performances have made the process easier. Race ratings and the ability to drill down into result charts can tell you exactly how strong the competition of a given race was.
A horse may gain an early edge and draw off to a large win with a strong speed figure against suspect competition. Faced with better competition, the scenario may be completely different. Horses that have been facing better fields will often have their form muddied up and escape notice at longer odds. No matter what you use, Brisnet or Timeform race ratings, DRF Formulator drill downs, even saving PDF past performances from each racing day. Harder to find research has more wager value.
Motivation
The primary goal of a horse’s connections is often discounted when races are analyzed. The question that seems pertinent is ‘What is the purpose of today’s race?’. In several race categories like maiden or starter allowances, the answer is often obvious, to win today’s race. Often though, coming off a layoff or preparing for a bigger goal down the road, the answer is simply to move forward. If a horse is bet to 3 to 5 under these conditions, wagering against may make sense. These horses will have overwhelming class and speed figure advantages.
I keep a database of odds on favorites and have columns for negatives such as the race being a prep, layoff, unfavorable distance switch or a spot that seems too easy when more lucrative options were available. You can then go through each negative and see the impact it has on ROI to find the most vulnerable bet against. Handicapping tools such as DRF’s Formulator can show you a trainer’s history in the situation.
Horses are also not machines and trainers try many different strategies entering races for a variety of reasons. Trying to figure out why a horse is in a race is an important question to ask. Sometimes a trainer is just taking a shot to see if something works.
You also must constantly ask yourself what your edge is. If you come to the same conclusion as everybody else and a horse is running at short odds, it is going to be hard to generate a long-term profit.
Recreational Money
As in any gambling endeavor, who you play against has an enormous impact on your results. We have already outlined that takeout is high in horse racing. Thus, to generate an edge you need a significant level of inefficiency in a market. In horse racing, this situation will usually come on days when there is a high level of public participation. The Triple Crown and Breeders’ Cup days fit this scenario. People are out to have fun, they are out in number, and they can distort pools.
Other days that fit this scenario are weekend days at the most popular race meetings. These include the summer meetings at Saratoga and Del Mar. These also represent some of the highest caliber racing competition of the year. Horses come from many different venues ensuring competitive fields and lots of variables to decipher. The pools are deep, meaning it takes much larger bets to influence odds.
All these factors give the bettor his or her best chance to succeed and generate an edge.
Conclusion
As horse racing has recently been one of the few games in town for bettors, we examined some unique factors about the game. We also noted where information can be found, what factors are most impactful on betting, and noted the availability of free past performances at ADW’s.
