Tom writes: "Also remember that you can be totally right about a particular company but it may not translate into an immediate profit."
Tell me about it, I'm in the Red, but still doing better than the S&P 500 for the time period. I've been investing since March. A *very* short term look right now. I'd say my horizon is 30 years out still.
The cool thing about studying the Market is that I can take college courses for a Financial Degree and get credited for classes that relate to Gambling in general.
Later, Chris
I got interested in the stock market a couple of year before poker. My current perspective is that investing in stocks is very similar to gambling in general. What you are trying to do is find situations with a positive EV and take advantage of them. However, with any "gambling" situation one's overall win rate is based on number of trials. In poker, blackjack, and video poker there are many trials per hour. With the stock market you probably have 1 trial per year if you are a "long-term" investor (which I think is generally the best way to go). This leads to the conclusion that one could be the best investor in the world and still have a multi-decade losing streak.
The positive thing about investing, especially in a "long-term" strategy is that one's EV is high when you consider the amount of time you actually have to put into research and such. You don't need to be sitting at your computer or desk to have your stock go up (or down).
Personally I think that if one was skilled at both poker (or other gambling games) and investing, it would be better to play the gambling game with a small bankroll (below 100k or so) and invest with a larger bankroll. Of course, one can do both if there's enough money but that's not the case with me. I'll choose to set aside my money to gamble.
It seems you can get $200 just for nothing. Just give your name and address and you get a $200 account. It is arranged by a group of players who need "referral credits." This program hasn't started yet, but may in a few weeks. Leave a post here if anyone wants more information.
This program is now ready at http://www.maxpages.com/free200dollars
Buffalo -3 vs BALTIMORE
I can't see Buffalo not covering, this is my favorite pick so far this year. Comments either way would be appreciated.
Thanks Paul
Pick-of-the-years should cover more easily than this, but a loss is a win is a win, so congratulations Paul.
Andrew,
Hook of the year(HOTY) went to 3.5. Oh well be in FLA Gulfstream for Breeders Cup one of my dreams coming true. 30 stake races Fri, Sat, Sun. and going to the Miami vs Tenn. game at Players stadium Sun nite.
Paul
Appeared like all Baltimore action in my locale, went to 2-1/2 late here. Probably middler's movements in retrospect. Sorry you caught a tough line change.
QB |
Team |
Rating |
Team |
Yds Per Rush |
Team |
QB Rating Against Defense |
Team |
Defense Yds Per Rush |
Zeir |
Buccaneers |
1.7 |
Cardinals |
2.6 |
Bengals |
101.6 |
Redskins |
4.8 |
Brister |
Broncos |
30.6 |
Chargers |
2.8 |
Browns |
99.4 |
Bears |
4.5 |
Plummer |
Cardinals |
39.6 |
Falcons |
2.8 |
49ers |
95.2 |
Browns |
4.3 |
Harbaugh |
Chargers |
47.1 |
Seahwks |
2.9 |
Falcons |
89.3 |
Falcons |
4.2 |
Kramer |
Chargers |
49.2 |
Giants |
2.9 |
Vikings |
86.1 |
Cardinals |
4.2 |
Case |
Ravens |
51.6 |
Titans |
3.2 |
Panthers |
86.2 |
Panthers |
4.1 |
McNabb |
Eagles |
53.5 |
Dolphins |
3.2 |
Pats |
83.9 |
Seahwks |
4.0 |
Mirer |
Jets |
55.4 |
Pats |
3.2 |
Lions |
82.7 |
Raiders |
4.0 |
Pederson |
Eagles |
57.9 |
Colts |
3.2 |
Bears |
82.3 |
Jets |
3.9 |
Tolliver |
Saints |
58.0 |
Bears |
3.4 |
Ravens |
81.6 |
Colts |
3.9 |
McNown |
Bears |
59.2 |
Broncos |
3.5 |
Colts |
81.5 |
Saints |
3.8 |
Collins |
Giants |
60.0 |
Saints |
3.5 |
Saints |
79.8 |
Titans |
3.8 |
Smith |
Bengals |
60.5 |
Cowboys |
3.5 |
Bills |
79.0 |
Vikings |
3.8 |
Young |
49ers |
60.9 |
Steelers |
3.5 |
Broncos |
77.4 |
Jags |
3.7 |
Kanell |
Falcons |
62.4 |
Lions |
3.6 |
Redskins |
74.9 |
Broncos |
3.7 |
Lucas |
Jets |
62.8 |
Jaguars |
3.7 |
Raiders |
74.3 |
Pats |
3.7 |
Couch |
Browns |
64.4 |
Chiefs |
3.8 |
Dolphins |
73.3 |
Rams |
3.7 |
Garcia |
49ers |
64.5 |
Eagles |
3.9 |
Titans |
73.1 |
Eagles |
3.7 |
Dilfer |
Bucs |
66.3 |
Redskins |
4.0 |
Jets |
72.4 |
Packers |
3.6 |
Blake |
Bengals |
67.5 |
Bucs |
4.0 |
Bucs |
71.7 |
Lions |
3.6 |
Banks |
Ravens |
70.2 |
Browns |
4.1 |
Cardinals |
70.8 |
Chiefs |
3.6 |
Stewart |
Steelers |
71.5 |
Vikings |
4.1 |
Cowboys |
69.6 |
Cowboys |
3.6 |
Brunnel |
Jags |
72.7 |
Ravens |
4.1 |
Chargers |
69.2 |
49ers |
3.6 |
Flutie |
Bills |
73.4 |
Packers |
4.2 |
Steelers |
65.5 |
Bengals |
3.5 |
Huard |
Dolphins |
76.3 |
Bills |
4.3 |
Giants |
63.4 |
Bills |
3.3 |
Grbac |
Chiefs |
76.4 |
Jets |
4.4 |
Chiefs |
61.9 |
Steelers |
3.2 |
Favre |
Packers |
78.1 |
Raiders |
4.4 |
Jags |
61.9 |
Dolphins |
3.2 |
Aikman |
Cowbosy |
79.3 |
49ers |
4.4 |
Seahwks |
61.1 |
Ravens |
3.1 |
Graziani |
Falcons |
77.8 |
Bengals |
4.5 |
Eagles |
58.9 |
Bucs |
3.1 |
Chandler |
Falcons |
78.4 |
Rams |
4.7 |
Packers |
55.6 |
Chargers |
2.9 |
Cunninhm |
Vikings |
79.1 |
Panthers |
5.3 |
Rams |
54.0 |
Giants |
2.7 |
Graham |
Giants |
81.2 | ||||||
Griese |
Broncos |
81.4 | ||||||
Batch |
Lions |
81.6 | ||||||
Marino |
Dolphins |
82.2 | ||||||
Beurlein |
Panthers |
82.7 | ||||||
Gannon |
Raiders |
85.5 | ||||||
Hobert |
Saints |
86.6 | ||||||
Matthews |
Bears |
86.9 | ||||||
Tomczak |
Steelers |
87.4 | ||||||
O'Donnell |
Titans |
87.6 | ||||||
Manning |
Colts |
89.4 | ||||||
Bledsoe |
Pats |
91.7 | ||||||
Kitna |
Seahawks |
92.4 | ||||||
Johnson |
Redskins |
105.7 | ||||||
Foley |
Seahawks |
113.6 | ||||||
George |
Vikings |
119.3 | ||||||
McNair |
Titans |
119.4 | ||||||
Warner |
Rams |
131.5 |
Did you mean 17.0 with Zeir?
Leaving for Reno next Monday. Report on pen and heat anyone? Will put out a trip report on following Friday.
If possible,see if THE ELDORADO Hotel still has the best breakfast buffet in town.
Distaff=Beautiful Pleasure
Juv. Fillies=Surfside
Mile=Garbu
Sprint=Big Jag
F&M=Perfect Sting
Juv.=Chief Seattle
Turf=Dream Well
Classic=General Challenge
Good Luck No Matter Who You Bet
Paul
Dis......Silverbulletday
J.F......Chiluki
Mile.....Tulza
Sprint...Forestry
F/m T....Soaring Softly
Juv......Kiss a Native
Turf.....Daylami
Classic..Almutawakel
my pic-six would currently cost $1256, so I gotta trim it down a little :)
Here's my 2 cents. Top pick listed first, playing a $72 pick 6.
Distaff: Banshee Breeze Juv Fil: Darling My Darling Mile: Tuzla (lend a Hand, Hawksley Hill) Sprint: Stravinsky (Affirmed Success) Fil Turf: Soaring Softly (Borgia) Juvenile: Chief Seattle Turf: Daylami Classic: General Challenge (LDK, Almat..)
Good luck to all
ORl +3.5 ,DET have big name players but they played double overtime last night.
Nice pick,what do you look for in evaluating NBA selections
Situation,how team play recently and schedule. Today I like IND + 3.5
You all probably know all of this already so bare with me. There is a lot of M&A in the stock market and almost all of it involves stock swaps where the acquired company's share holders get a certain number of shares of the acquiring company based on the price when the deal is made. It can get more complicated than this but generally speaking this covers most of the deals. I'll use specific symbols but I have no opinion on either one. WIND is acquiring INTS. The holders of INTS get .92 shares of WIND. Today WIND closed at 23 9/16. The price of INTS shares would be 21.675 if there was no risk premium on the INTS shares as this is .92 * 23 9/16. Now INTS closed at 18 3/4 today so what I call the risk premium is almost $3 a share for INTS. This is a friendly deal among two mid size companies (WIND about $1 billion market cap and INTS about $400,000 million) that they want to complete before the year is over. There seems to be little chance of the Feds objecting to this deal I would say that it is almost a certainty that they will get approval from the feds. This probably is a trivial question to you guys but how would you go about capturing this almost 3 point premium. I have a way that involves little risk of loss and one that is has no risk of loss. If anyone is interested please post what you would do.
Tom,
id just buy the underpriced stock. ive found that works best for me as it keeps the commissions down. but with internet buying nowadays you can do more. you can also buy some kind of option on the other stock depending on which way it should go if the deals sours. or possibly do a short sale(i like them). if you are doing a fair amount of trades you can get a broker to pay you interest on your short money. thats how it should go. you have to account for the lost interest you lose waiting(sometimes it takes a long time) and the commissions you pay to overcome that gain. sometimes(manytimes) the reasons the spread gets so high is that someone knows that one side of the deal aint so good. its up to you to figure if thats the case.
weakness...
WIND and INTS techs are coupled and both are very long in the tooth. WIND needs a real technical boost but is unlikely to get it from "coupled" INTS.
OTOH that market is just filled with long hanging fruit and its only getting riper.
As I'm sure you're of you can make a bet that is totally dependent on the odds of the deal going through and the time it takes to complete it and is independent of how these companies stock performs. In other words whether they go up or down, it doesn't matter.
odds going thru and time frame are the two most important factors for you. otherwise the arb. is a no brainer. unless you can leverage alot of money in the deal i like going for the one side. its only really arb. if you have it set up so you cant lose. or lose very little in relation to total gain.( my definition of an idea)
Of course I was thinking of going long INTS and shorting WIND. I was thinking that you could buy puts on INTS to hedge but that doesn't take into account the fact that WIND may rally if the deal falls apart. I made some points in my reply to Chris. I'd be interested to read any comments that you might have on what I wrote.
I don't know about any retail brokers which pay interest on the proceeds from short sales. Are you guessing, or do you have concrete knowlege about the getting interest?
Personally I'm not sure which ones do and which ones don't but I know there are some that do. I don't do a lot of shorting but I do put some on occasionally so I guess I should shop around a little. I use an on-line broker BTW.
G= the expected gain in the event of success
L= the expected loss in the event of failure
C= the expected chances of success, expressed as a %
Y= the expected time of holding in years
P= the current price of the security
Annual Return= CG-L(100%-C)/YP
Too tired to think about this one right now, but maybe Sunday or Monaday. I've never done an Arbitrage problem before, so it should be interesting.
Later, CV
Read Ray's post. This one isn't too hard. I'll post after you've had a chance to answer it. As far as Ben Grahm's formula, it basically applies to all gambling situations. There is a way to make L=0 but you will cut into G.
I looked into INTS. The day before the public anouncement it was selling for ~$10 per Share. Its now selling for ~$18.75 per share (P). Our loss (L) would be ~$9 if the deal fell through. To make this easy lets say that the stock swap will go through 90% (C) of the time. The time for the completion would be ~3 months (Y). Our Gain would be ~$3 (G)
CG-L(100%-C)/YP = Annual Rate 0.9(3)-9(1-0.9)/ 0.25(18.75)= Annual Rate
38% = Annual Rate (Not bad)
There should be a way we can hedge this with Put Options but I'm not very familiar with the Option market.
CV
Chris,
Upon further review I will take back my claim that you can make L = 0. For Ray's benifit, I did screw it up as far as L=0. I was thinking you could hedge with put options on INTS but I also have to take into account that WIND could shoot up there if the deal fell through. I could buy some calls on WIND as well but it is bye-bye profit. If you buy 100 shares of INTS for each 92 shares you sell short WIND basically you lock in the risk premium if the deal goes through. Here are a couple of other things to consider:
1) You don't have to put up the entire amount of cash to make this transaction. You can use margin so unless I am missing something you can enhance your return rate considerably by doing so.
2) The companies both want this deal to go through and I can't imagine there being any problem with the Feds so the odds of it being completed are very, very high. I believe that you could study M&A's and come up with an accurate assessment of the odds of it going though.
3) I am not sure how fast and at what rate the risk premium will shrink. It may close rather slowly. I have held stock in 4 companies that were bought out by a bigger company. Although I didn't keep precise data on how fast the premium narrowed I know it was very slow. So you could possibly wait to make the trade if you thought that the stocks weren't going to appreciate greatly over a period of time thus tying up your money and taking less risk for a shorter period of time. The only time where this would have been a major mistake for me was when AOL bought out Netscape. AOL proceeded to rally real strong so it would have meant a much bigger money commitment to wait to commit.
Tom Haley
I totaly forgot to think about the chances that WIND's stock could decrease making our gain on INTS less than expected. I know that the FASB is going to put a stop to the practice of pooling of stocks so future Arb.s will have a definate gain.
I learned alot from this thread. Thanks. Where did you find out about the takeover. It would have been very profitable to be in on the INTS side on the 21st of Oct. I wonder if there is a way to filter all takeover situations as they are reported on?
Later, CV
Chris,
Ray is right that arbitrage is really meant to deal with risk free or relatively risk free transactions. The idea is to take advantage of a temporary market inefficiency. Upon further review, in an upwardly biased market the strategy of simply going long the acquired company may very well be the best way to play it. I'm going to do some more thinking about it. I do not have a position in INTS but I am familiar with WIND (I don't have a position in WIND either) so I knew, after the fact, that they were buying out INTS. BTW I don't think the accounting changes that you are alluding to will not affect stock swaps from occuring, they will change the way that the Income Statement is reported after the fact for those companies doing a pooling of interests mode now. I have mixed feelings about this accounting change that maybe we could discuss sometimes in some e-mail. Also I have been burned by the pooling of interests accounting mode but I think it is legitimate for companies such as Cisco for intance. The main advantage of stock swaps is that they are tax free transactions.
Speaking of the topic of effeciency in the stock market. My basic premise about this transaction is that the risk premium is too high. In other words the risk premium does not reflect the true odds of this deal going through and thus this is a market ineffeciency. I would certainly be interested in reading commentary about this and perhaps I should post this as a new thread.
Tom Haley
Chris,
Ray is right that arbitrage is really meant to deal with risk free or relatively risk free transactions. The idea is to take advantage of a temporary market inefficiency. Upon further review, in an upwardly biased market the strategy of simply going long the acquired company may very well be the best way to play it. I'm going to do some more thinking about it. I do not have a position in INTS but I am familiar with WIND (I don't have a position in WIND either) so I knew, after the fact, that they were buying out INTS. BTW I don't think the accounting changes that you are alluding to will affect stock swaps from occuring, they will change the way that the Income Statement is reported after the fact for those companies doing a pooling of interests mode now. I have mixed feelings about this accounting change that maybe we could discuss sometimes in some e-mail. Also I have been burned by the pooling of interests accounting mode but I think it is legitimate for companies such as Cisco for intance. The main advantage of stock swaps is that they are tax free transactions.
Speaking of the topic of effeciency in the stock market. My basic premise about this transaction is that the risk premium is too high. In other words the risk premium does not reflect the true odds of this deal going through and thus this is a market ineffeciency. I would certainly be interested in reading commentary about this and perhaps I should post this as a new thread.
Tom Haley
don't forget there are many "professionals" using their firms money playing these arb games....so why does it still continue to trade with as much risk premium as it looks?
i think 3 possibilities :
1. the risk premium may just be the norm for m&a's, so you are as well off doing this takeover play in these two stocks as you are in any takeover play in any two stocks (this does not mean that doing the takeover play is a bad thing) 2. the risk premium is higher than the norm, but that probably means there's more risk than meets the eye, and you just don't know about it. 3. for whatever reason, few pros are looking at this (seems most unlikely scenario).
why do takeovers trade at such big risk premiums? ask Long Term Capital Management
anon,
For whatever my opinion is worth, I think you have enumerated the possibilities quite well and I agree that 3) is highly unlikely. As I was thinking about this, if the risk premium was wrong there would be those who would jump at the chance to make an easy profit and the gap would narrow. Put in another way, the market should be extremely (brutally) effecient at determining the risk premium for this kind of transaction.
Tom Haley
My Yahoo home page lets me screen news articals for Key words or phrases.
"Buyout" seems to be the best Key word for Arbitrage like situations.
CV
.
Hi Tom-
I am a poker player who moonlights on Wall Street as an M&A advisor. We work with corporations negotiating and structuring takeovers, subsidiary sales, and mergers. As such we are "insiders", ad can't trade on our information. Here is what I can tell you about M&A arbitrage:
1) It is a very efficient market with a lot of capital at work. An arbitrage fund target annual returns in the neighborhood of 12%-15%, which is less than the basic equity market has returned during the current bull market.
2) The mecanics of "locking in" an arbitrage trad are fairly simple as has been described in this thread. You simply go long the target (company being bought) and short the acquirer in the appropriate ratio. The proceeds from the short sale are used to offset the cost of the long position, and you are locking in the "spread" or "premium" as you have labled it. It can be a bit more complicated depending on dividends and such, but you get the general idea.
3) Of course, your major risk is that the deal falls apart and that the linkage between the price of the two stocks breaks, resulting in your long position declining in value by more than your short position. There are also timing risks as others have pointed out.
4) The way to make real money is for a higher bid to come through, causing the stock of the target to trade well above the initial offer price, and the short position may be virtually unaffected. In cases where the market expects a higher offer, the "premium" may actuall be negative.
5) This is a total insiders game. The best arbitrageurs are extremely aggressive at getting the information necessary to put on profitable trades and get out of losing positions before the bad news is broadly disseminated. The also move very quickly and have the muscle to execute trades with very low commissions.
6) If something seems like a great deal (e.g., the EV of the trade is much higher than 15% annualized), then there is probably a good reason for it.
7) Two famous former arbitraguers: Ivan Boesky and Robert Rubin
I think the best poker analogoy would be that M&A arbitrage is like playing in a game that has pretty high variance, low EV, but requires a tremendous bankroll. In addition, you are always competing with world class players and some of them cheat!
Wouldn't Professionals overlook some of the smaller M&A's because they can't put enough money into the Arbitrage without moving the stock around. I have seen, and hold companies who defy EMH because they are just too small to interest many fund managers.
Later, CV
Michael,
Thanks for the very informative and interesting post. After thinking about it for a while longer, as I posted to anon, the market should (must) be very effecient at assessing the risk premium for these transactions.
Tom Haley
in stocks of smaller caps it is not easy to find enough stock to short. ive run into this at times and have to hunt brokers to find some available. sometimes on these and other types of deals there is no stock to short and no options for the stock. hence the arb. players get into too much hassle and you may get good spreads and find a very inefficient side of the deal. i dont know if it applies to this or not
Thanks Ray. Good points as I hadn't considered the fact that the shares might be hard to borrow en masse. I see there is another species of bear in Montana that I didn't know about.
I think there is more money to be made finding the companies who are logical acquisition targets.
NY+4,line open DET -3.5 may be DET bettor think DET can't starts 0-3 may be 0-4 because they play 4th game in five night tomorrow at MIL.I think NY is better team if home field advantage is 4 point line should be less.DET can win this game but NY bettor collects $$$$.
CHI +8,too many points here. MIA played last night and this will be 3rd game in four day,I take rest team at home for small bet.
QB |
Team |
Rating |
Team |
Yds Per Rush |
Team |
QB Rating Against Defense |
Team |
Defense Yds Per Rush |
Brister |
Broncos |
30.6 |
Cardinals |
2.7 |
Bengals |
102.4 |
Bears |
4.8 |
Brown |
Cardinals |
35.4 |
Chargers |
2.9 |
49ers |
95.2 |
Redskins |
4.5 |
Plummer |
Cardinals |
39.6 |
Falcons |
2.9 |
Browns |
93.2 |
Browns |
4.4 |
Harbaugh |
Chargers |
48.8 |
Seahwks |
3.0 |
Panthers |
90.3 |
Falcons |
4.1 |
Case |
Ravens |
51.6 |
Giants |
3.0 |
Saints |
86.0 |
Cardinals |
4.1 |
McNabb |
Eagles |
53.5 |
Titans |
3.2 |
Vikings |
85.0 |
Seahwks |
4.1 |
Tolliver |
Saints |
55.1 |
Dolphins |
3.2 |
Falcons |
82.7 |
Titans |
4.1 |
Blake |
Bengals |
55.2 |
Pats |
3.2 |
Colts |
82.6 |
Panthers |
4.0 |
Kramer |
Chargers |
55.3 |
Bears |
3.3 |
Lions |
82.4 |
Jets |
3.9 |
Mirer |
Jets |
55.4 |
Colts |
3.4 |
Bears |
82.0 |
Colts |
3.9 |
Smith |
Bengals |
55.6 |
Cowboys |
3.5 |
Broncos |
81.5 |
Vikings |
3.9 |
Collins |
Giants |
60.0 |
Steelers |
3.5 |
Cardinals |
80.9 |
Jags |
3.8 |
Pederson |
Eagles |
60.3 |
Broncos |
3.6 |
Titans |
79.0 |
Raiders |
3.8 |
Young |
49ers |
60.9 |
Chiefs |
3.6 |
Chargers |
75.1 |
Bengals |
3.8 |
Kanell |
Falcons |
62.4 |
Saints |
3.7 |
Pats |
75.0 |
Saints |
3.7 |
Lucas |
Jets |
62.8 |
Jaguars |
3.9 |
Cowboys |
74.7 |
Eagles |
3.7 |
McNown |
Bears |
63.1 |
Eagles |
3.9 |
Bills |
74.8 |
Broncos |
3.7 |
Zeir |
Buccaneers |
63.4 |
Bucs |
3.9 |
Raiders |
74.1 |
Pats |
3.7 |
Garcia |
49ers |
64.5 |
Browns |
3.9 |
Ravens |
73.4 |
Cowboys |
3.7 |
Couch |
Browns |
72.3 |
Ravens |
3.9 |
Redskins |
72.8 |
Rams |
3.6 |
Dilfer |
Bucs |
66.3 |
Lions |
4.0 |
Jets |
72.4 |
Packers |
3.6 |
Flutie |
Bills |
67.6 |
Vikings |
4.1 |
Bucs |
71.9 |
Lions |
3.6 |
Favre |
Packers |
69.7 |
Packers |
4.2 |
Dolphins |
67.1 |
Chiefs |
3.6 |
Banks |
Ravens |
70.2 |
Bills |
4.2 |
Steelers |
65.5 |
49ers |
3.6 |
Stewart |
Steelers |
71.5 |
Redskins |
4.4 |
Giants |
64.7 |
Bucs |
3.5 |
Huard |
Dolphins |
75.0 |
Jets |
4.4 |
Eagles |
63.3 |
Dolphins |
3.4 |
Brunnel |
Jags |
76.9 |
Raiders |
4.4 |
Jags |
61.8 |
Bills |
3.3 |
Beurlein |
Panthers |
77.6 |
49ers |
4.4 |
Packers |
60.9 |
Steelers |
3.2 |
Graziani |
Falcons |
77.8 |
Bengals |
4.4 |
Chiefs |
59.7 |
Ravens |
3.2 |
Cunninhm |
Vikings |
79.1 |
Rams |
4.9 |
Rams |
58.0 |
Chargers |
2.9 |
Gannon |
Raiders |
79.5 |
Panthers |
5.1 |
Seahwks |
55.7 |
Giants |
2.9 |
Batch |
Lions |
80.8 | ||||||
Aikman |
Cowbosy |
81.0 | ||||||
Griese |
Broncos |
81.0 | ||||||
Marino |
Dolphins |
82.2 | ||||||
Graham |
Giants |
82.4 | ||||||
Hobert |
Saints |
82.4 | ||||||
Matthews |
Bears |
82.8 | ||||||
Grbac |
Chiefs |
83.2 | ||||||
Tomczak |
Steelers |
87.4 | ||||||
O'Donnell |
Titans |
87.6 | ||||||
Chandler |
Falcons |
87.9 | ||||||
Manning |
Colts |
91.5 | ||||||
Kitna |
Seahawks |
94.8 | ||||||
Bledsoe |
Pats |
97.9 | ||||||
McNair |
Titans |
105.0 | ||||||
Johnson |
Redskins |
106.5 | ||||||
Foley |
Seahawks |
113.6 | ||||||
George |
Vikings |
114.1 | ||||||
Warner |
Rams |
125..4 |
Last week 4-6, Season 20-14-2
Browns +3.5 vs. Ravens
Broowns vs. Ravens Over 32.5
Cardinals + 7.5 at Jets
Falcons +6.0 vs. JAC
Bucs vs. Saints over 33.0
Chargers +1.0 vs Broncos
Bears +9.0 vs Packers.
Hi there! My name's Mike Warren, and I'm here to tell you than me and my team of stat men and football pundits have got tonights game IN THE CROSSHAIRS! That's right, we've looked over all the angles and come up the CAN'T MISS pick for tonight's gridiron matchup...
Heh heh heh. Anyone ever get suckered in by this crap? I did, when I was 21. Anyway, I got the good word from my 'capper on tonights game (an honest, hard working guy who does't know Mike Warren) and thought I'd pass -the Viks to -7 (-110) and the under to 48 (also -110).
Goood luck tonight.
Hope you A&R'd it.
WOW! Hope you went for your lungs on this one...and please give me your 'capper's phone #... :)
I am going to do a little after the fact analysis of my picks for week 9 in the NFL. As the 2+2 books point out, the idea is to find a good bet. With that in mind let's look the picks over after the fact:
Browns +3.5 vs. Ravens.
I got spanked good in this one. Where did I go wrong? I thought that the Browns were improving on offense which they are. I think my main mistake in this game was not evaluating the intangibles correctly. I thought the hostile Cleveland crowd would have more of an effect which I way over rated and I finally got it through my head that the Ravens are more motivated when they play the Browns. Bad pick, bad handicapping Grade F.
Broowns vs. Ravens Over 32.5
Well at least I got something right in this game. I think the odds of going over with a 32.5 O/U are pretty good. Grade A.
Cardinals + 7.5 at Jets
Even though I covered in this game I think that this was basically a flip of the coin but I wasn't getting paid at the right odds. The Jets missed a field goal and a 2 pt conversion I'm not sure if the Cards squandered any scoring opportunities. My thinking was the Dave Brown would be an improvement over a banged up Jake Plummer and Brown seemed to do ok from reading the stats. I was also thinking that Mirer would play his usual game. However, the Cards don't have enough offensive weapons for the QB to make that much of a difference. Grade D.
Falcons +6.0 vs. JAC
Another game where I got walloped and I should have known better. The Jags are playing great on the road against the spread and I over estimated the improvement of the Falcons offense. Grade F.
Bucs vs. Saints over 33.0
Another game with a ridiculous O/U? Yep I took it and I give myself a grade of A.
Chargers +1.0 vs Broncos
My thinking here was that Chris Miller would struggle after not having started a game since 95. I knew that I was risking more because Miller has experience. However, I have won so much by betting against the new QB starting that I felt like I need to make this pick. I did watch this game and San Diego muffed a punt after stopping Denver and had a chance to tie the game or cut the lead to 2. I'll give myself a D as a grade.
Bears +9.0 vs Packers.
Sorry guys I am going to give myself an A+ on this pick. Has anybody noticed that the Packers are overrated by the public?
Report Card
1 - A+ 2 - A 2 - D 2 - F
Overall C+.
What I found interesting is that you picked the Ravens against Buffalo +3.5 and then you bet against them the following week against the lowly Browns +3.5. I was speaking to Baltimorites coming back from the Miami game and they pointed out some points that I really hadn't considered since I saw KC kick the shoot out of them 35-8. They remarked about their great defense and I looked into it and they are right. This is leading somewhere I'm looking to take the Ravens +13 vs JAGUARS due to their defense.
Good Luck
Paul
Paul,
Can I plead temporary insanity? The Ravens do have an excellent defense at witnessed in their game against the Bills among others.
Tom Haley
For those of you who play both,how would you compare the two for profitability and fluctuation.I'm not talking about recreation,but people who are long term winners in both and have detailed records to back it up
Poker is better,it's sure thing if you're in good game,you can make good living but you don't get rich(I think GAMBLING FOR LIVING says that too).For sports,you don't know how many good bets you can find and may be you don't win your good bet. Roxy said last year that two people beat NBA TOTAL one retired now, another one can have 1 percent advantage over bookmaker( I don't know how he comes up with that)there are many follower which have no advantage, that why Las Vegas casino take small action in NBA total and many place you have to make parlay bet.
I'm not clear about your info on NBA.Did he say only two people beat NBA totals? I live in Vegas,we constantly see articles quoting sports books as saying lose on total betting in NBA(not suggesting these are honest quotes)Gaming stats show that Nevada books won 5% of all money bet on NBA last yr.I agree with your comparison of the two,but am confused as to the details of the sports part.
its almost impossible that they won 5% of all money bet. unless last year was not a true representation. the best sports bettors make far more than any poker player can dream of making. the reason is that they bet so much higher. for the average joe, he can make far more for his bankroll by playing poker if he is a winner at both and have smaller fluctuations.
Thanks Ray,you last sentence confirms my thinking. For the record,I saw a chart last week that broke down Nevada sports books winn by sport. The source of the info. according to the article was Nevada Gaming. Football win 4% of handle,basketball 5%,Baseball 1%,Parlay cards 24%,Total win 4.3% which matched the highest total in 10yrs.
Can you name some of the best sports bettors?
one of the best was Chuck Sharpe, he retired to the good life in Thailand. I am guessing he was one of the 2 that Roxy was reffering to. The other i am not sure of, though i would say it was me, except for the small detail that i play offshore, not in vegas where the limits are too low.
:)
Does anyone else think Buffalo -3 this week is way off? I'm thinking it's a "trap".
I don't think it's a trap and I would stay away from this game. I went to the Miami vs Tenn game Sunday and everyone you talk to on the streets have a fear of Buffalo. They have Miami's number for some reason. They already beat them on Monday Oct. 4th 23-18 in MIAMI. IMO pick another game that may be softer.
Good Luck
Paul
Paul and Holy,
Here is something that I am mulling over regarding this game, Huard is starting this time as opposed to Marino. Is this a plus or a minus? Marino had a horrid game when they played on Monday night and Jimmy J was highly critical of him. Also they made a concerted effort to improve their running game and get Tony Martin more involved in the offense. What do you guys think of these factors?
Tom Haley
You are right Marino did have a horrible game and JJ shot him down, but whether Marino was playing hurt all season I don't know. I do know the owners of Anthony's Runway 84 in Ft. Lauderdale and he is worshiped like a God there. He has alot of pride and he loves football. As far as Hoard goes he is surviving these games on minimum talent. He is an escape artist in the pocket, and he gets the first downs I don't know how but he does it. The thing is everybody was used to Marino playing quarterback that they developed the same strategy for years, but I think once they figure out this Hoard Miami is in trouble. The thing that has helped Miami is Marino going down, they had to rebuild the whole philosophy for offense. Even though it's not great there still undefeated with it. The bottom line is the DEFENSE for Miami has got so much better since they last played Buffalo.
Buffalo has been an enigma for me this year they lose the first one win the next four lose two win two. Flutie is almost like Tarkenton to me with his maneuverability. Against Seatlle he had a horrible game, against Baltimore he was lucky to win. Against Washington he was superb. To me it's like betting on the jockey Pat Day you don't know what the heck is going to happen.
After all this I believe that Miami will play good defense and Buffalo if successful on offense will win, but if Miami contains Flutie Miami will win. I will not bet this game but I will watch it hopefully. Tony Martin will help Miami but I don't see him being a factor nor do I see Hoard being a factor unless he throws interceptions, and Buffalo's defense scores.
ENUF
Paul
Buffalo -3-105 is an easy, easy pick. The Bills meet my three criteria for betting NFL games:
1. Turnover ratio: Buffalo -7 and Miami +5....both teams are due to have a change in luck. Sklansky might refer to this as "regression to the mean." Huge edge to Buffalo
2. Variance: Buffalo has been losing to the spread by an average of 2.9 ppg and Miami has beaten the spread by an average of 3.9 ppg. This is a difference of 6.8 ppg and these things also tend to even out during the season. Edge to Buffalo.
3. Large home field advantage in favor of Buffalo. This spread isn't adjusted high enough for Rich Stadium.
4. Teams which have given up single digits two weeks in a row are automatic bet-againsts in their third game. Miami's defense has been carrying this team ever since Marino's injury and they cannot be expected to do it for much longer.
"Teams which have given up single digits two weeks in a row are automatic bet-againsts in their third game"
Such NFL teams are 33-50 ATS over the last decade or so. Not bad, but not exactly an "automatic bet-against". Indeed, when such teams are dogs(as Miami was) they have compiled a 14-14 ATS record since 1989.
The HFA of Rich Stadium is not necessarily larger than that of any other NFL venue. I have yet to see any study demonstrate conclusively that any one NFL stadium has a larger HFA than any other.
My clients did receive Buffalo yesterday, however.
IMO Ray provided some excellent insight into doing this kind of thing on some deals where the "big money" may not want to get very involved. What do you think about assessing the odds that a deal will take place vs. fall through?
only an insider would have a chance to guess right. too many other variables. you might get a possible range by averaging similar companies(type of deals) time frame to completion if that info is readily available.
The best free picks is Lem Banker picks which he gives in his tv show in las vegas.This week in college Lem likes Okla st.,UAB,Ohio st.,Miami-Florida,LSU and in NFL NO,CHI,CIN,BAL,SEA. I get his picks from radio show "You can bet on it".Lem wrote a very good book name Lem Banker's book of sports betting which Mason recommend(rate 8),he has been successful more than 40 years.
I've talked to several local players who have done great with his picks this yr.It's funny how things go back and forth,when I moved to Vegas 11yrs ago he was considered top source,had unbelievable win rate in super bowls. A few yrs later friends that followed his picks said they were so bad thought he was delibritely giving out bad info.Now a few yrs later,he's the man again.Guess they call that fluctuation.By the way what's your take on KC game this week.Line is way off,and no one seems to have answer why.
You wrote"line is way off",I don't understand,I think both teams look very similar good defense,conservative offense and power rating should be even.TB has home field advantage which about 2-3 points(they are not in same conference and last time they played it was 1993) KC is not a good road team.TB has record 4-4,KC 5-3.I think TB need to win a game that they should win,I likes TB for a small bet.
I used two methods to check line:1)Sagarin ratings fromUSA today,line should be KC -7,this includes adj for home field 2)JR Millers book,uses method of last 4 games,proj score KC 24 TB 7. Styles are similiar but KC offense much better yr to date. Dilfer had big game last week vs mighty NO prior he was benched.
1. Tampa Bay is a strong selection for me today, but not as strong as Buffalo as previously posted. Again, they have an edge in turnovers and variance, but I feel Tampa Bay doesn't have a strong home field advantage.
2. JR Miller's technique of projecting scores is extremely innacurate. I've been doing for a few weeks for fun. You might as well flip a coin.
JR Millers has his website www.professionalgambler.com but don't pay for his picks.
QB |
Team |
Rating |
Team |
Yds Per Rush |
Team |
QB Rating Against Defense |
Team |
Defense Yds Per Rush | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Garret |
Cowboys |
4.1 |
Cardinals |
2.7 |
Bengals |
101.5 |
Browns |
4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Brister |
Broncos |
30.6 |
Chargers |
2.9 |
Saints |
92.8 |
Bears |
4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Senstrom |
49ers |
34.3 |
Falcons |
2.9 |
49ers |
94.2 |
Redskins |
4.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Miller |
Bears |
39.6 |
Giants |
3.0 |
Browns |
92.4 |
Vikings |
4.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Plummer |
Cardinals |
39.6 |
Dolphins |
3.1 |
Falcons |
85.9 |
Panthers |
4.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Detmer |
Browns |
42.7 |
Pats |
3.2 |
Panthers |
83.7 |
Falcons |
4.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
McNabb |
Eagles |
43.4 |
Seahwks |
3.3 |
Colts |
82.8 |
Seahawks |
4.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Brown |
Cardinals |
49.3 |
Titans |
3.3 |
Cardinals |
82.8 |
Cardinals |
4.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Case |
Ravens |
51.6 |
Jaguars |
3.4 |
Lions |
82.7 |
Titans |
3.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tolliver |
Saints |
54.6 |
Bears |
3.6 |
Bears |
82.2 |
Colts |
3.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Kramer |
Chargers |
55.3 |
Colts |
3.6 |
Vikings |
81.4 |
Bengals |
3.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Harbaugh |
Chargers |
55.6 |
Steelers |
3.6 |
Broncos |
80.6 |
Jaguars |
3.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Smith |
Bengals |
55.6 |
Broncos |
3.6 |
Titans |
79.0 |
Jets |
3.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Pederson |
Eagles |
59.6 |
Chiefs |
3.6 |
Cowboys |
77.5 |
Raiders |
3.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Collins |
Giants |
60.0 |
Lions |
3.7 |
Redskins |
76.8 |
Saints |
3.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Mirer |
Jets |
60.4 |
Saints |
3.8 |
Chargers |
75.5 |
Packers |
3.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Young |
49ers |
60.9 |
Browns |
3.8 |
Pats |
75.0 |
Chiefs |
3.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Garcia |
49ers |
62.3 |
Bucs |
3.9 |
Raiders |
74.1 |
49ers |
3.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Kanell |
Falcons |
62.4 |
Vikings |
4.0 |
Jets |
73.7 |
Broncos |
3.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
McNown |
Bears |
62.6 |
Cowboys |
4.0 |
Bills |
72.5 |
Pats |
3.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Lucas |
Jets |
62.8 |
Packers |
4.0 |
Eagles |
69.2 |
Cowboys |
3.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Zeir |
Buccaneers |
63.4 |
Eagles |
4.2 |
Bucs |
69.2 |
Steelers |
3.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Banks |
Ravens |
64.1 |
Ravens |
4.2 |
Ravens |
69.2 |
Eagles |
3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Couch |
Browns |
68.1 |
Bills |
4.2 |
Rams |
66.0 |
Lions |
3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Favre |
Packers |
71.7 |
Jets |
4.3 |
Giants |
64.7 |
Bucs |
3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Flutie |
Bills |
72.4 |
Redskins |
4.4 |
Chiefs |
62.8 |
Dolphins |
3.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Blake |
Bengals |
73.0 |
Raiders |
4.4 |
Dolphins |
61.9 |
Bills |
3.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Stewart |
Steelers |
73.3 |
Bengals |
4.4 |
Steelers |
60.8 |
Rams |
3.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Graziani |
Falcons |
73.8 |
Panthers |
4.6 |
Jagurrs |
60.0 |
Ravens |
3.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
McNair |
Titans |
77.0 |
49ers |
4.8 |
Packers |
57.8 |
Chargers |
3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Dilfer |
Bucs |
77.3 |
Rams |
4.8 |
Seahawks |
56.9 |
Giants |
2.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Cunninhm |
Vikings |
79.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Gannon |
Raiders |
79.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Miller |
Broncos |
79.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Aikman |
Cowbosy |
80.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Griese |
Broncos |
81.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Brunnel |
Jags |
81.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Batch |
Lions |
81.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Chandler |
Falcons |
82.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Marino |
Dolphins |
82.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Beurlein |
Panthers |
82.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Hobert |
Saints |
82.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Graham |
Giants |
82.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Matthews |
Bears |
82.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Huard |
Dolphins |
83.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Grbac |
Chiefs |
83.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tomczak |
Steelers |
87.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
O'Donnell |
Titans |
87.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Manning |
Colts |
91.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Kitna |
Seahawks |
94.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Bledsoe |
Pats |
97.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Johnson |
Redskins |
101.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
George |
Vikings |
109.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Ferrotte |
Lions |
Posted by: Dan Rubenstein (drubenst@yahoo.com) Posted on: Sunday, 14 November 1999, at 10:17 a.m.
Is there a way in the US to bet on the Champions League? European betting exchanges offer such a wide range of bets that there are almost certainly exploitable opportunties. In addition, the same game might have vastly different lines in different countries, creating the possibility of arbitrage. Analyzing the matchups of specific positions can show certain lesser-known teams or teams from smaller countries that will do well against "name" teams.
Posted by: Tom Haley (CodeSavvy@acm.org) Posted on: Sunday, 14 November 1999, at 10:24 a.m.
Posted by: Tom Haley (CodeSavvy@acm.org) Posted on: Sunday, 14 November 1999, at 11:33 a.m.
Week 10 Picks Last week 4-3, Season 24-17-2 Saints +1.0 at home vs. 49ers - 49ers favored on the road in a division game. You're kidding right? 49ers are starting Steve Senstrum and perhaps he will make me regret this pick. Bengals +10.0 at home vs. Titans - Hopefully McNair will struggle again and Cinci can remember the first meeting between these 2 teams. Steelers -14.5 at home vs. Browns - Steelers can do it if they want to and I believe that Stewart has incentives to put up some numbers agains a very poor pass defense. Steelers vs. Browns Over 34.0 - It isn't 32 points but it will do. Lions -4.5 at Cards - Time to think about the draft and getting some more skill position players for the Cards. Cowboys +3.0 at home vs. Packers - I know Aikman is out, Emmit is out, Irvin is out. Remember Jason Garrett has come in under these circumstances and played well before. Vikings -6.5 at Bears - Oh well, I'm just betting against Jim Miller. Pats -6.0 at home vs. Jets - Ray Lucas is not the answer. Dolphins +2.5 vs. Bills - Dolphins to avenge Monday night loss.
Posted by: C. Villalobos (zardoz@micron.net) Posted on: Sunday, 14 November 1999, at 2:27 p.m.
Today’s news story is at: http://moneycentral.msn.com/scripts/webquote.dll?iPage=news&Symbol=oak&ARTICLEID=BW,1999/11/14,BW1029 Corning Inc. (GLW) will acquire Oak Industries (OAK): OAK’s shareholders will receive 0.83 shares of GLW for every share of OAK. The acquisition is expected to complete by the end of the 1st Quarter of 2000. Friday’s stock prices for GLW was 90 3/8, and for OAK 49 ¾. So if you could have bought OAK on Friday you would be expected to make ~50% on Monday. I wonder what you will buy to buy OAK for Tomorrow. How would you set this up Tom? Later, CV
Posted by: philip bass (philbass@webtv.net) Posted on: Sunday, 14 November 1999, at 9:40 p.m.
Was nailing the parlay for San Francisco (-1.5) to beat Tennessee and over 39 points in week 4 this season and posting it here on this site beforehand. It's the only football parlay I've ever won in my life. Since that game, Tennessee has established itself as an AFC power and SF has lost five in a row. If those two teams played next week Tenn would be double digit favorites over SF. My two selections on this site won convincingly today. Now I'm hoping Sklansky's "regression to the mean" doesn't apply to my future results.
Posted by: Scott Horton Posted on: Sunday, 14 November 1999, at 11:56 p.m.
So much of each football game result I watch seems to turn on the smallest of events. A key interception completely busts a teams spirit. Ditto for penalties, fumbles, injuries, you name it. I truly believe the game to be a fine example of a nonlinear event much like the weather. The weather can be determined now and reasonably well predicted a few hours from now but the five day forecast (LA excepted) in little more than a guess. Football strikes me as equally difficult to predict. I also realize that in a free market there will always be opportunities to bet games where the public is wrong. Is that enough to overcome the juice? I concluded it wasn't but that was 14 years ago. Has anything changed? I know the juice is still the same and bookies still drive Cadillacs.
Posted by: GD (guydowns@hotmail.com) Posted on: Monday, 15 November 1999, at 2:06 p.m.
That's right, me and my gridiron wizards have had this game circled SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE SEASON, and are ready to pass on to you the CAN'T MISS BET OF THE MILLENIUM!!! Sell your house, your car, you wife... Do what you have to do TO GET DOWN ON THIS GAME!!! Or do what I do-- bet a dollar and watch it while you're sweating your buddy's pocket Q's at the Hold 'em table. Anyway, I got the good word from my man, and he's telling me to take the under. Also, he likes the Suns to -4 tonight and the Spurs to -3. Good Luck, Guy
Posted by: GD Posted on: Monday, 15 November 1999, at 7:27 p.m.
s
Posted by: Richard G.Poirier (shogeybaby@aol.com) Posted on: Monday, 15 November 1999, at 8:36 p.m.
I like the website's new expanded setup.
Posted by: C. Villalobos (zardoz@micron.net) Posted on: Tuesday, 16 November 1999, at 3:29 p.m.
Just got back from Searching the Fool for Risk Arbitrage. Looks like one person at least is taking about the Strategy. Check out there Speaker's Corner Folder at http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?id=1380436000011000&sort=id Later, CV
Posted by: Kardshark (kardshark@hotmail.com) Posted on: Tuesday, 16 November 1999, at 4:29 p.m.
A 2 day carryover with 437k. The last time there was a 2 day, the pot went to 1.8 million on the 3rd day. It looks to be a halfway decent card , with only 2 of the 6 races having more than 7 entries
Posted by: Tom Haley (CodeSavvy@acm.org) Posted on: Tuesday, 16 November 1999, at 10:04 p.m.
Let's say you thought the market was overvalued or maybe just a particular stock. Say you saw a stock that has traded between $0.25 and $3.00 over the last week, it was losing $14.00 a share, and other fundamentals were deteriorating to the point that yesterday you took a short position at $1.00 a share (I don't know if it ticked up to $1.00 a share or not yesterday) where it closed. Say you shorted $10,000 worth at $1 a share. Well at the end of trading today you would be a staggering $100,000+ in the hole after one day! That's right there was a stock today, CPIH, that went from $1 closing price yesterday to an incredible $11 1/16 share today on the close for a staggering one day increase of 1000+%. I wonder how many standard deviations this move was.
Posted by: Ray Zee Posted on: Wednesday, 17 November 1999, at 11:25 a.m.
its like betting both sides of the crap table, the commissions kill you after time. leaps are a high commission item and are very hard to make money with if at all. unless you are lucky and the market makes a big move and you happen to be on the right side. also in general out of the money options dont do too well for the purchaser but may work for the seller.
Posted by: Tom Haley (CodeSavvy@acm.org) Posted on: Wednesday, 17 November 1999, at 12:38 p.m.
Instead of going long that stock and selling covered calls I would sell puts instead something like 5 points out of the money. Just my $.02
Posted by: jakell (jimfireguy@aol.com) Posted on: Friday, 19 November 1999, at 9:31 a.m.
Basic stratergy in most books I'v read suggest you surrender when you have 15 against a dealers 10. (8 Decks). The exception is if your 15 is 7-8. Then you would hit. Does anyone know why you would surrender 9-6 & 10-5 but not 7-8?
Posted by: Paul Feeney (Feen9876@aol.com) Posted on: Friday, 19 November 1999, at 2:12 p.m.
A&R= Carolina -5.5 vs CLEVELAND Baltimore -5.5 vs CINCINNATI Good Luck Paul
Posted by: GD (guydowns@hotmail.com) Posted on: Sunday, 21 November 1999, at 12:51 a.m.
Ooopsie! Well, for those of you who lost your wives on last week's play, I'm truly sorry. But don't panic! I've got some more dandies for you this weak, and I'm sure you'll be able to win her back... Anyway, here's where I"m at tomorrow. Patriots to +3.5 Jets to + 115 Lions to + 170 Lions/ Pack ov. to 41 Seahawks to +110 Seahawks/ Chiefs un. 37 Ravens to -6 Bears to -3 Giants to +4 good luck to all. Went 5-1 today, so I wish I'd posted these pretties for you. With God's luck we can keep truckin' through the weekend.
Posted by: philip bass (philipbass@webtv.net) Posted on: Monday, 22 November 1999, at 6:30 p.m.
I had Atlanta. The ending of that game was the football equivalent of losing to a "one outer" on the last card in poker. It still makes me sick. I lost Saturday. I lost yesterday. Regression to the mean has finally caught up.
Posted by: Jakell (jimfireguy@aol.com) Posted on: Tuesday, 23 November 1999, at 10:54 a.m.
I gave up Sport betting over 20 years ago(football & basketball). I think my bookies kid had to postpone his last year of college because I quit. Anyway, I'm a hockey fan and thinking of dabbling to make the games more interesting. Does anybody out there do Ok betting hockey? Any advice? Any good books? The only book I'v seen on betting hockey is "Betting to Win on Hockey" by Robert Ross. Worth the money?
Posted by: Ray Zee Posted on: Friday, 26 November 1999, at 12:11 a.m.
you dont short stocks that have too much volitivity or a small cap. shorting is done when you believe a stock will go down or as a protection for another type of bet you made. one good one is when a similar stock reports poor earnings you may want to short before the companion one reports. you can put stop loss on stocks but i dont as the price can go right thru your stop and you suffer the loss over the stop.( with a stop you are not guaranteed the stop price) stocks dont usually move so much you cant make a decision to continue or not.
Posted by: Cube Head Posted on: Friday, 26 November 1999, at 5:27 p.m.
Only an idiot would play craps, so I don't do it. But I did make this observation regarding dice which may or may not be known. Unfortunately, it has absolutly no practical value. There are 64 ways to put six numbers on the face of a cube (2 to the sixth power). Of course we all know that the arrangement of these numbers on dice has the opposite faces totaling seven. But there are TWO ways this can be done. If one places a di on the table with the One side up and the Six side on the down, the remaining sides are in the order 2,3, 5,4. These numbers can run clockwise ("righthanded") or counterclockwise (lefthanded). The two di are not identical but are mirror images of eachother. I have seen samples of both types. I even have a set of dice, which I think were hand made, that has one right and one lefthanded.
Posted by: Andrew Wells (ACWells@Juno.com) Posted on: Sunday, 28 November 1999, at 10:37 a.m.
Under 36 at Baltimore. Ravens have shown their defense is capable of stopping the Jags (held them to six points at Jacksonville). Jacksonville's top rated defense should have yet another game without giving up a touchdown. This isn't Cincinnati or Cleveland where Baltimore's offense can pretend to be proficient (playing those two clubs can make any QB look good). What is the NFL record for most punts in a single game? Prediction: 17-6 Jacksonville, in another sleepwalk.
Posted by: mah (maheide@yahoo.com) Posted on: Monday, 29 November 1999, at 4:07 a.m.
There was a program on the Discovery channel that featured a person, I think his name was Archie, that had made millions at the Craps table. Does anyone know what type of betting strategy he used?
Posted by: Big John (jhartz@jps.net) Posted on: Tuesday, 30 November 1999, at 1:29 a.m.
I was talking with Blackie Blackburn a few weeks ago and he told me that he was starting another Indo Pak Flash game at Crystal Park Casino. This is a gambling poker game with the emphasis on Gambling. Although the rake is shamefully high, the game is the "nuts". Each seated player is dealt three cards which they cannot touch. First player to the left of the button commences the betting blind. Next player can bet the same amount, double that amount or choose to look at his cards. If he looks at his cards, he must put in twice the amount as the player before him if he wishes to continue. He can throw his hand away without having to put money in the pot. In a typical seven handed game, there might be >$100 in the pot before any player decides to look at his hand. The best hand is trips, followed by straight flush, followed by straight, followed by flush, followed by pair, followed by high card. There are other conventions such as when a man has looked at his hand and bet, you can call his bet for half price if you don't look at your hand. (Only one time) You can force a stop to the action when you are head's up with a single player by saying "show" before putting your calling money in. There is also a way that you can request a showdown with one other player who has also looked at his hand when there are three or more of you in the pot. That player can refuse to participate in that process if he wishes. They spread this game a year ago and it was mostly played by East Indians and Pakistani's. There are times when the gambling fever overtakes this game and the size of the pots get large before anyone chooses to look at their hand. I've been in games where the betting unit got to $512 (after beginning at $2) with three people putting in that amount without having seen their cards. (the pot on that hand was more than $5,000) I'll try to make it over there and sit in on the game and report back to the forum on how it went.
Posted by: Big John (jhartz@jps.net) Posted on: Tuesday, 30 November 1999, at 11:43 p.m.
I talked with him about a year ago at the Commerce. He was looking for some sponsorship for Hold-em and was playing some $5 Condition Pan. He was very upbeat and seemed able to take his reverses much better than most. I find this ability, whether real or a front, most admirable. I liked the guy's attitude and thought it was very possible that he'd score some big wins again. There aren't that many around who would have dared to scale the heights he did, let alone plumb the depths. I hope that he is treated well when he frequents some of his haunts from the good old days.
Other Gambling Games |