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It looks like I may be the first poster in this new forum. I'll start off with a question ---
Does anyone know of a mathematical treatment to determine gambler's ruin in Blackjack?
If I'm not mistaken, Ken Uston addressed this in "Million Dollar Blackjack", but it's been a few years since I read it...
C.P.
That is one of my favorite books. Unfortunately, it is only more or less an approximation. He has a small graph displaying some various player advantages with their respective gambler's ruin curve.
What I really want to be able to do is generate the function of this curve, given parameters like advantage,etc.
Peter Griffin, in "Gambling Ramblings - Extra Stuff" has an excellent discussion of Gambler's Ruin as applied to blackjack.
I just saw this site the other day: http://www.bjmath.com./ This may answer TOO many of your questions!! ;-)
You are right, it is a great site, just what I was looking for. Thank you very much.
A simple question which I'm sure someone can help me with : in Gambling for a Living David Sklansky gives a quick outline of basic blackjack strategy. Reading the section on splitting it appears to omit what you should do with a pair of eights. I should imagine that you would split them against anything but an Ace - is this correct ?
Thanks,
Andy.
Basic strategy has you splitting 8s against all dealer upcards, including Aces. This is for basic strategy in all games I am currently aware of that are offered in public casinos in the U.S. Of course, there's almost always an exception.
Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)
Unless it is a very unusual game, you always split Aces and eights. Perhaps he omitted this because he assumed everyone knew this.
Karpov,
You write :
< Unless it is a very unusual game, you always split Aces and eights. >
As Greg points out, this would be true for the US. In Europe and other places, however, with no dealer hole card rules, you don't always split Aces and eights.
Etienne
"Dealer hole card rules" - can you explain this please ? Excuse my ignorance and thanks in advance,
Andy.
In Europe, the dealer does not give him/herself a hole card until all the hands have been played out. If the dealer shows an Ace or 10 value card you will lose your double or split if the dealer completes a blackjack. In the US you would only lose your original bet. Actually, most places in the US, the dealer checks for a BJ before players play out their hands.
Also, if surrender is offered, surrender your 8s vs. a dealer 10 at a positive count (I believe the hi-lo index is +1 for surrender).
Regards, DG
DG,
You write :
< Also, if surrender is offered, surrender your 8s vs. a dealer 10 at a positive count (I believe the hi-lo index is +1 for surrender). >
Good point. Two corrections, though.
1. For European no hole card rules, if surrender is offered it is by definition early surrender, in which case surrender 8s vs. dealer 10 for all counts greater than or equal to -2 (Stanford Wong's "Professional Blackjack" p. 91).
2. For late surrender, surrender 8s vs. dealer 10 for all counts greater than or equal to 0 (SW's PB, p.93).
Etienne
In GETTING THE BEST OF IT David Sklansky has a wonderful essay on baccarat. In it he shows that if the remaining six cards were half deuces and half treys the "player" has a huge advantage. Similarly he shows that if the remaining six cards were half sevens and half eights the "banker" has a huge advantage.
Now suppose that you knew ahead of time that a sequence of cards was coming that contained a high proportion of deuces and treys; or a high proportion of sevens and eights, this might give you an edge.
"Now suppose that you knew ahead of time that a sequence of cards was coming that contained a high proportion of deuces and treys; or a high proportion of sevens and eights, this might give you an edge. "
No according to David's Wonderful essay (and I agree it was a good essay) this would give you a huge (my word) edge!
So what!
"Now suppose that you knew ahead"
And just how do you propose (in apractcle manner please) getting this information ahead of time! Better yet have David calculate the probability of picking 12 random cards containing 6 2's and 6 3's from an eight deck shoe! I know you said the last 12 but it's the same thing now isn't it! Probability wise, I mean!
With that done we may have a starting point for a discussion.
BTW, Mason you better be careful. Abdul may read this and we may need another forum just for Baccarat. Of course if it kept Abdul posting that wouldn't be a bad thing now would it!
Vince.
In the world of blackjack there is something called ace tracking. It requires the player to memorize a sequence of cards and the casino to employ a very simple shuffle. Now the ace tracker can predict where the ace is with a fair amount of accuracy.
"In the world of blackjack there is something called ace tracking"
I am somewhat familiar but not very nowledgeable with regards to Ace tracking in BJ. I do not believe that the concept is transferrable to baccarat. (Ever wonder why the last three letters of the name of this game are RAT. Hmmm) The location of a single Ace in a multi deck shoe can be very valuable information in BJ. An Ace in Black Jack has an extremely high value! In bacarrat for David's theory to be expoloited one would need to track multiple denominations and be fortunate enough for them to be located very close together.
I would have to be shown effective tracking examples to be sold on this concept!
Vince.
I am somewhat familiar but not very nowledgeable with regards to Ace tracking in BJ. I do not believe that the concept is transferrable to baccarat.
This is valueless conjecture coming from someone who has never simulated shuffle styles via computer or recorded real-world data, undertaken any research in this area or indeed familiarized themselves with the fundamental mathematics relating to the game.
I would have to be shown effective tracking examples to be sold on this concept!
Really? I think that, after some of the most brilliant minds in gambling have tried patiently to explain the reasons why baccarat is susceptible to advantage play and pointed you towards relevant research, you are unlikely to be convinced if Ed Thorp turned up at your doorstep with a convoy of showgirls and performed a musical outlining the theories inherent in playing baccarat with a positive expectation.
I wrote a book on the subject outlining sequential tracking methods amongst half-a-dozen other methods to play baccarat with a long-term advantage. It is available for $12 from conjelco. If you read the book your intransigent stance might change.
"I wrote a book...It is available for $12 from conjelco."
Anyone that would spend a hard earned $12 on a book from a pice of work lie you needs to have their head examined. Mine is fine thank you very much!
"you are unlikely to be convinced if Ed Thorp turned up at your doorstep with a convoy of showgirls and performed a musical outlining the theories inherent in playing baccarat with a positive expectation."
I find it typical that "geniuses" like yourself always attack the messenger rather than the message. Especially when their tree bears no fruit.
"I do not believe that the concept is transferrable to baccarat."
If you read this correctly and don't add your own "spin", you will see that it is more an interrogatory than a statement of fact. Which if you HAVE the KNOWLEDGE you claim to have you should be able to easily answer. Or do I just assume that the Ace tracking concept of BJ is applicable to Baccarat as you imply.
Seems to me you "book" selling experts have quite a lot of trouble with: Prove it!
Have a nice day!
Vince.
Vince:
I think you went a little too far on this one. My understanding is that John May's book is excellent. (Arnold Snyder gave it a terrific review.) I also understand that he discusses some techniques that have been used to beat baccarat game.
For these forums to be successful we all need to refrain from personal attacks. You are welcome to disagree with someone's else's position or theory, but it needs to be done in a professional manner.
Mason,
You're right that Vince crossed the line on this one, but John May was provoking Vince with his showgirl musical putdown. Don't you think John May got personal too, only in a less direct and more condescending way? Vince is a street fighter and nothing if not direct. Sure both of them should be more careful about the personal stuff - but not just Vince.
The following are comment from John May's post and my feelings about them.
"This is valueless conjecture coming from someone who has never simulatedshuffle styles via computer or recorded real-world data, undertaken any research in this area or indeed familiarized themselves with the fundamental mathematics relating to the game. "
Personal attack no. 1. This man knows absolutely nothing about my background. He chooses to make me the issue, not baccarat!
"..I think that, after some of the most brilliant minds in gambling have tried patiently to explain the reasons why baccarat is susceptible to advantage play and pointed you towards relevant research, you are unlikely to be convinced if Ed Thorp turned up at your doorstep with a convoy of showgirls and performed a musical outlining the theories inherent in playing baccarat with a positive expectation. "
Personal attack no 2. Again My challenging others is the issue. This time I'm too closed mind to except anything from "brilliant" minds like him, I guess.
"I wrote a book on the subject outlining sequential tracking methods amongst half-a-dozen other methods to play baccarat with a long-term advantage. It is available for $12 from conjelco. If you read the book your intransigent stance might change. "
Personal attack (semi) no 3. Now he wants me to buy his book to enlighten me and then I may see the error of my ways.
"I think you went a little too far on this one."
Mason,
First let me say that I respect the rules of 2+2. If my post to John May offends anyone at 2+2 or that regurarly posts on this forum I apologize. I do not apologize to John May. I do not know him. Nor does he know me. He chose to respond to my post with a personal attack on me. And he did it on an open forum! He could have easily sent an e-mail to me if that is how he feels. I have never beeen the first to attack an individual. Check out my history on this forum. However, I admit that I am quick to retaliate when attacked. I don't mind the exchange of derogatories at all. If attacked in the future the attacker will be reponded to accordingly. Those are my rules that I live by. I do not turn the other cheek (well maybe sometimes).
Please reread John May's response to my post. Point out one sentence in that response that adds anything at all to the discussion of the game of bacarrat. He joins the forum and hypes his book and says thank you very much! Who needs that. I challenged him to come up with something constructive. Where is his response to that!
If you feel that I broke the rules of the forum then please delete my response to John May!
Thank you for your response. Have a nice game!
Vince.
Vince, fine, these were personal attacks. This type of bickering could be moved to email, however, and doesn't need to clutter the forum, regardless of who started it.
I disagree. Vince should be able to post a defence, especially when the forum moderator and well-respected Mr. Malmuth warns Vince (and on the forum). I agree with Vince. Regardless of the quality of this baccarat book, the author chose to make Vince the issue, not baccarat. In his reply to Vince, the author said nothing of baccarat, only Vince's inability to comprehend things. Vince doesn't have a problem comprehending, he just disagrees. There's nothing wrong with that.
Vince- Do you agree that there are times when you can make a positive expectation bet in baccarat even if it is the slightest edge? Theory says that this will occur SOMETIME; but for a person to take advantage of this is virtually impossible. It reminds me of blackjack; take a particular card out of the deck and it changes the expectation... however, if you were to track for a SPECIFIC combination to occur, you'd go broke waiting.
Thanks!
C.P.
"but for a person to take advantage of this is virtually impossible"
This is the whole point of my posts! Why try and sell, put forth, claim. imply etc. etc that a system is available that works when the only place that it shows even a slight advantage is in a computer simulation. I don't think it is fair to anyone not to state that the system described is not applicable to "real world" bacarrat playing. Yet I still get the arguement that oh yes if you do it according to blah blah blah blah blah. It will work. I reply to the individual that says it WILL work. Prove it! Why must I be the one to prove it! I make no claims! Why should I accept: "Trust Me". I don't!
Nor do I really care about bacarrat! It's not a game I will ever spend 5 minutes of my time playing! I care about people buying material from authors making unproven claims! They are effectively saying if you follow my system you will win at this game. I just want to see the authors winning experience or experience of others that use his system. Is that too much too ask!
Tell me C.P why if I'm so wrong have guys like Jonh May personally attacked me instead of focusing on the issue of proof!
Vince.
Good question. I agree with you.
C.P.
"Tell me C.P why if I'm so wrong have guys like Jonh May personally attacked me instead of focusing on the issue of proof!"
1) Live by the sword, die by the sword.
Vince, you are confrontational and agressive in every one of your posts. I havn't seen one that appeared otherwise to me. If you can't handle people responding in the same fashion as you post then you should look inward, not outward.
2) Proof _isn't_ in always in the pudding.
As I've asked before, what is your definition of "proof"? Communication of ideas is very much about a shared lanaguage. You will notice that the title of these two forums is "Theory and Strategy". When we talk about achieving a +EV we are discussing "Theory" and as such the theoretical definition of "proof" is the one to be used. If you mean something else then just say something like "I don't want the mathematics but rather [fill in]". Now if you attack somebody while asking for proof (like implying that John May is peddling improper goods) then go back to #1 and expect confrontation. Mason actually talks a little in GT about applying non self weighted strategy in personal interaction. You might think (realtive to NSW strategy) if being loud and agressive _all_ the time allows you to make points you really care about heard.
Don't you think these posts are getting stupid. I don't think Vince is being overly aggressive or brutal to anyone. BTW, he does have a very nice post somewhere on this page about how much he liked a guy he played with one night. It is probably the nicest post on the whole forum.
Concerning baccarat, Vince is right if you wanted to actually make money. If you wanted to sit around all daying imagining situations so unlikely to occur that you can call it virtually impossible, then he is wrong.
Not to poke fun at Sklansky's original idea, here is something similar ---
Suppose you were playing BJ and there were 4 cards left - 3 kings and 1 ace. You would have an enormous advantage. Now everyone jump up and down and scream, "Blackjack is really, really beatable!!" Forget the fact that this just isn't gonna happen in the real world.
That's what the baccarat story sounds like to me.
ok
This is part 2 of 2 of my report on the March 10th seminar sponsored by the Casino Management Association (CMA) in with Compton and Dancer spoke on "Keeping profits with today's Slot & Video Poker". I simply report a summary of what was said from my notes. The comments in bracket are added by me to make a point more clear. Sincerely, TomSki
After the 10 minute break Dancer begins by introducing Compton and stating Compton's credentials: -Compton is the leading expert in the country on slot clubs -he consults on slot clubs for casinos all over the country, aids in the design of slot club benefits
[At this point the overhead projector crashed, and so no slides would be presented for the rest of the seminar]
Compton now begins to talk on Slot Bonusing -this is the hottest subject in Reels on the Strip What is it: the reward method is different, the player may not be aware of it, it happens at the machine - it happens about once every 15 minutes to 1 hour. Longer than that is ineffective. For example, on the VP game Reel Deal, the player got to spin some slot reels for every 4 of a kind, but this only would happen about once an hour -the bonuses are also smaller amounts i.e. not big jackpots
In general the bonus amount in unknown at times and it is not known when it will hit -no teams are known to be attracted to bonus games Some common types of bonus games - IGT Vision Series - Bar Crest Series (British outfit) a) Bonus Spin b) Wild Cherry Pie - is predictable when bonus will hit c) Bally Empire Game - is a timed bonus, unknown when it will strike, is not too successful [machine sits unplayed a lot of the time]
Bonus VP -does not go over well. -Linked Flush Attack- some players would wait near bank and only jump in when flush attack mode came on. Or would play only 1 coin slowing waiting for mode to come on -Gold Mine Poker, Reel Deal, Flush Attack - all not doing too well -Phantom Poker by Oddessy has a bonus play feature that shows coins in a window [the playoff amount] when bonus mode is activated, the player plays one hand against the dealer to try and win the bonus amount
Bonus Vultures -are small stake advantage players whose only goal is to hit the bonus when the amount or timing of the bonus can be predetermined. - the players are more annoying than costly - the casino makes no money from them, but the money they win would have gone to somebody anyway -The problem is when they get threatening Compton no tells of backwonger at the Trop. in AC who had cell phones and would stand near current players and make them nervous. Jeffry then said he would simply sit down next to a current player, and strike up a friendly conversation. When the player would leave he would quickly slide over and beat the backwongers to the punch
[Solutions] -the main thing is to talk to the manufactures 1. Fort Knox involves matching numbers. It could be played with only 1 coin. If 4-5 numbers were already matched [out of 10], then it was playable. [Compton mentioned that he would play this game and then described how he went about it] -it has since been redesigned. Now the combination is not visible. Now one must play 3 coins to get a chance for the numbers to match and the combination is hidden. 2. Piggy Banking Machines -they would show the number of coins currently in the bank to be won - only required 1 coin to play and receive the bonus -Now redesigned and called Big Bang Piggy a) the bonus is harder to hit [pigs must be on all 3 reels, not just the last one?] b) it requires 3 coins to be bet now 3. There is a book called "Advantage Slot Play" by Charles Lund by Huntington Press - it describes how to bonus vulture
Group Bonus Machines -Money Time by Mikhon you have to play to get the bonus, an unqualified player cannot just jump in during the timed bonus round -Big Picture at MGM -Brooklyn Bridge at NYNY -Lucky Con by Acres is all over the Mandalay Bay a) the computer picks a number, and whoever puts in that coin # in the winner. For example if the computer picks #520, then the person who puts in the 520th coin, will receive the bonus Problems- 1) the machines are very expensive [to the casino] they take up a lot of room, some require human announcers and they are participation games. [participation game is one in which the casino has to pay the manufacture a daily fee or a % of the revenue each machine generates. This is different from an outright one time purchase of the machine. Currently this is an area of great debate between manufactures and casinos] 2) methods must be made to make sure the bonus goes to an active player. One method is that the machine must have been played an average of once every 15 seconds prior to the bonus for one to qualify 3) the bank of bonus machines can go dead if no one is playing since the bonus will not come up very often With lots of people playing the bonus will be hit more often and thus continue to generate excitement
Bonusing through Slot Cards - for example offering double slot club points - offering say a $5 bonus if you come back the next day - having a personal progressive. The card will show the player what is progressive meter is at, say $75. As he plays, the meter goes higher. The computer randomly picks a bonus hit level for you. When your personal progressive reaches this level, you are informed you had hit the bonus, and can go to the slot club to claim your reward. -Casino wide bonusing is when say every 1/2 hour someone with their slot club inserted will be randomly selected to win a prize such as $100
The good points of bonusing: Compton say that Randy Adams of Anchor Gaming says that bonusing helps keep players at slots and not VP [slots have much higher hold rates for casino than does VP] -creates marketing and advertising ie when cars are given away [Palace Station promo every May] it generates a lot of increased play - it puts more sights and sounds on the casino floor - it has a something for nothing feel to it
The bad points of bonusing: -They are mostly participation games, for example the new Monopoly game - it does not work on video poker. VP players like to know the true odds - it is too confusing to a lot of slot players who do not come to town much [and thus do not develop a familiarity to the game.] Comption then said that a lot of games only have a 3 to six month life cycle before they are converted to a different game. So a two time a year LV visitor may not see the same game the next time they come to town - up to 12% of the a machines return is tied up in the bonus, so the machines must be tight [ this point was later clarified to mean that the base pay of the game will seem tight. So if total return is say 96% including the bonus, then the player who never hits the bonus will only be playing at a return of 84%. This will be a big short term drain and the player will soon lose interest] -the players will catch on that the machines are tight [again this was clarified later] -machines have a short life cycle. People get bored with them
Compton now says that he goes to Gambler Anonymous meetings for research purposes. He sits quietly and listens. He says currently that game that is hot now [addictive] is the 9 line video nickel machines such as Boom and Reel 'em In.
Frank Legato is mentioned as a good writer on slot games. He can be read in Strictly Slots
The floor is now opened to questions. Q: I have heard IGT say [the bonus games] have a 3-6 month life span and then are converted to new games? A: Many times a game ends on a bonus feature [ie in money time, it someone hits the bonus, the active players then cash out and leave] Jeffrey may have also said at this point that games are converted with new names but more or less have the same underlying hit frequencies Q: This is to Bob. Have you seen the new Williams Big E Poker game. A: Yes, I think this will be a big hit. It is truly fascinating. I think the player can bet up to 50 coins. Bob says the tools that he and other develop cannot figure out the strategy. Bob says it will be as popular as triple play. [Big E poker shows a grid in the shape of the letter E. To the left the player is shown two exposed cards, one on top of the other. The player selects where on the grid to place the top card. He does this to build a winning poker hand. A 5 card poker hand is made in the top horizontal row of the letter E, one for the middle row, one for the bottom row, and one vertical hand for the vertical left side of the letter E. Thus 4 hands are played. As cards are placed in the grid, new cards appear on the left. You can always see the single card that will follow the one you must currently place. This will help you in your strategy decisions.] Q:Can you tell us about the VLC coinless slots A: [by Compton] I like it. But I think it might appeal more to locals. Many tourists still like the sights and sounds of coins dropping from the machine.
[This is the end of the seminar. The people attending are asked to fill out a short survey that asked for comments on the information presented, and the quality of the presentation.]
On Wednesday, March 10, I attended a seminar hosted by the Casino Management Association (CMA) with featured speakers Bob Dancer and Jeffrey Compton of Compton Dancer Consulting. The topic was "Keeping Profits with Today's Slots & Video Poker". My attendance fee of $60 was paid by new gaming publication. In the report that follows my goal is to simply present the facts presented at the seminar. I will place notes in brackets where I feel an additional comment may provide more information to the reader. I provide quotes in some places not for emphasis, but rather just because I know these were the exact words used. No recording devices were allowed, but one could take notes. The seminar was videotaped for the CMA. Sometimes they offer these tapes for sale. Contact the CMA for more information at http://www.cmaweb.org/ Some of the report will just be my shorthand notes which is all that is needed to get the point across. My goal in writing this post is to present an unbiased report of what was said and let the reader draw his/her own conclusions. I have sent a copy of this post to both Bob and Jeffrey. Sincerely, TomSki
There were about 20-25 people in attendance. Most appeared to work in casino slot management positions from conversations I overheard. Compton started things off by saying the seminar would address new developments on the casino floor, namely - 1. Advantage video poker and 2. slot bonusing. Dancer would go first and Compton then introduced him by listing Bob's credentials. -Nations leading video poker writer, Dancer's published reports [strategy booklets] and Bob Dancer Presents Winpoker being the best video poker program in world. [there was no mention of Dean Zamzow the creator of BDPW] Compton went on to say that Bob would be putting $300,000 through VP machines this weekend during a promotion. [Dancer later said the promotion was at the Mirage and it involved getting 2/3 of 1% cash back and 9/6 Jacks or better (or maybe 10-7 DB?) ] Compton Dancer Consulting (CDC) is involved in slot club analysis, casino floor layouts, and design of promotions. Recent CDC activities included witness testimony on Indian Gaming, and out of state consulting for some Midwestern casinos.
Bob now begins by saying "100%+ VP is a beatable game. Many don't believe it. Even casinos don't believe it. 2/3 of LV casinos offer 100%+ games, about 1/3 in Reno." Others in Iowa and Miss. too. [an overhead projector hooked up to a laptop computer was used to display text of the subject matter being discussed] The first screen shots showed games that were beatable along with their return percentages. These included A. full pay deuces, the most common 100.76% B. Joker Wild AK 100.65 and 101.00 C. 10-7 DB 100.17 D. Jacks 9/6 99.54 but with 0.5% cash back slot club then it is over 100% E. other games AA, Loose Deuce's F. Progressives with 2% meters usually G. sequential 50,000 coin either way royals can add 0.4% H. "The wrong promotion can change a 98% video poker game into extremely profitable opportunities for the player" 2. "Other jurisdictions have over 100%" -many don't understand this 3. Hidden Advantages [of offering 100% games]
a. very few players play good enough to beat the casino
b. similar to single deck BJ in that hearing it can be beat generates interest but few will know how to do it
c. many pros bring in their friends (who can't play correctly) Well marketed 100% machines have a lot of dividends. Signage over machines saying so draw customers. Good players already know they are over 100%. Bob says this type of signage is a good idea.
Managing Advantage VP is different from slot players 1.A. VP players play longer B. Higher coin in $750 per hour [25 cent play] is = to a $15 per hand BJ bettor $1 players = $3000 coin in per hour both based on 600 hands per hour C. VP players are more willing to make decisions ie choose 4FL over small pair vs mindless slot play D. VP players are more willing to listen to outside advice from book, magazines and the internet E. VP players will discuss their gambling habits including where they play with friends and family more than slot players F. VP players on average tend to be brighter and more educated G. VP players are more likely to believe in mathematical strategies and less likely to believe in luck 2. Slot departments have their slot clubs based on 95% returns [of gaming machines] so promotions are based on this. So there is a big difference when a game returns 100% instead.
1. What is a pro? A. Somebody you have not seen before. Usually pros stick around when they come across a good deal "The right pros + the wrong promotion = scramble mode" B. [slide went too fast to catch it] C. Pros & comp wizards i. comps wizards like to get free rooms and meals, willing to play break even games ii. you won't make much money on them, but you wont lose much either, not much to worry about with them
2. How to ID a Pro: Monster Pros look for $50+ per hour plays. Usually work alone and not as member of a team. They play long hours. They play quickly. [many hands per hour] They play only advantage machines. Only play progressives when they are high. Plays mostly during promotions on 2x pt days, 2x four 7's pay day, or 2nd royal pays double in 24/48 hour days. Will stick to one machine. i.e only play 10-7 DB or only 2's wild. They won't hop around the casino playing many differenent types of games. Many play 2 machines at once. They do not get too excited when they hit a royal. B. You usually cannot tell a pro based on won/loss records. Pros know how to doctor records. [however, no mention was made of any of the methods of doing this]
TEAM PLAYERS - guys on the same bankroll. Play progressives when they get high. Frequently less than expert. Will smoke cigars to drive other players away. Teams are less than polite. E. Suggested ways to deal with teams: - ID the team leader and then tell him you need some cooperation. Tell him you need suitable behavior and the ability o free up some seats upon request. You will get cooperation. [i.e. failure to cooperate will result in team being kicked out altogether]
BONUS VULTURES (term believed coined by Randy Adams, head of new game development, Anchor Gaming) A. they favor new reel games (pigs, fort knox, cherry pie etc) B. will check machines regularly on their "route" C. This pro is a scavenger who will settle for making $30 a day D. Casino has no chance against these players. Best to get manufacturers to make changes. [to make games unwongable] 5. When do pros show up? A. 100%+ alone is often not enough, $7 per hour is not enough to motivate most players (i. )quarter players look for 101.5%+ " Loose deuces at the Reserve is having problems. They likely will be cut back soon. " ( ii.) Dollar action - 100.5%+ This is $15 per hour at the low end. $1 deuce's wild will get full play till they are gone. (iii) $5 action - 100.4%, but no game in LV offers this. But some promotions can make it so. $100,000 bankroll required. [at this point I show in my notes - Mirage 100.2% + Bonus. This is what Bob will be playing this weekend. I don't know if this means 10-7DB + 2/3% cash back or 9/6 Jack + 2/3% cash back + slot tournament bonuses]
GRAND OPENINGS are often big opportunities for pros. They check every machine. Due to inexperienced management that are moving up in ranks from other properties and new casino personell, mistakes can be made at openings that pros can capitalize on. Other opportunities for pros are with new machine changes or slot club changes.
Triple play and Lucky Draw Machines- These do not fit well in existing promotions ie when offering double points. Also with multiple promotions like 200 extra coins/pts for four eights, and 2x pay for a royal in hearts
Bob now relates a story of when a Coast property was paying double for four eights. The $25 machines there are normally no good. But now another bonus was added - a heart royal pays double. [for valentines day] A pro then hit a heart royal for $100,000 and the casino had to match it for another $100,000. [note: it is possible the four 8's was a separate promo at the Gold Coast. And the heart royal promo was at the Orleans and only had the slot club as a side benefit, not the four 8's too]
D. Promotions - the biggest draw to offering a promotion is to create good will and draw customers - the marketing dept. that makes up the promotions often do not know the math involved - promotions need to be explained completely to the staff. Bob then explains many time the players know more about how the promotion works than the staff. - after a promotion begins, it is too late to do proper analysis
Best case [to expect if a promotion was poorly designed] is that 99% of the money will go to 5% of the players. But in the worst case, the casino begins to lose "$20,000 per hour, panic sets in, and you are in scramble mode". AVOIDING DISASTER: Do your homework - someone on staff needs to know video poker B. Read what the pros read- Casino Player, Gaming Today, Las Vegas Advisor, Strictly Slots [VPT not mentioned] - Internet sites: Skip Hughes www.vid-poker.com
Lodestones site [url was given but not shown here] [later during intermission, an audience member who was unable to write down the full addresses asked Compton about the two and Compton was overheard to say "Skip Hughes site is the important one". ] Bob said at least 1/2 of casinos in LV have lurkers at Skips site. The slide show then displayed this message: "If you don't lurk, you don't know" Bob then commented that a member of Skip's list is lurking here at the CMA seminar and will report back all to the list. [my name was not mentioned]
Know your Floor and Slot Club a. know what are your 100% machines, what are you 99% machines b. Analyze promotion
i. know optimal $ pr hour a smart player can make, look at promotion through eyes of a skilled player
- good time to call in a consultant How to Handle Pro Action - Bad way is to 1. change machines or slot club promotion
2. Bar players
3. make permanent changes based on a temporary problem B) [more bad ways to handle pro action] - going from an open promotion [or open slot club?] to "don't ask, won't tell". - with this approach you are declaring war on regulars who used to think of you as santa clause but now think of you as the IRS C) [more bad ways] -Slowing down the machines. This annoys regular customers. Only the pros will put up with it [assuming they determine it is still worth playing] D)[more bad ways]- Barring players: barring should be 98% threat and 2% action. It can become a public relations problem. Sometimes the wrong player can get barred. Barring stories can get exaggerated. Bob now tells the story of a Silverton player who got barred and then told 900 of his friends about it. [actual number was closer to 20] - Barring at Black Jack is OK. But barring at VP is looked at as foul play. A better move: remove the players slot club privileges. Pay what you owe him. Let him play, but take away his benefits. GOOD WAYS to handle Pro action 1. exclude certain machines from a promotion before hand 2. $5 and up play should get special rules. For example if you offer a scratch card for any $25 jackpot, for a $5 player this is for any jacks or better hand. [i.e. this may be ok for a 25c or 5c machine, but will not work for a $5 machine] 3. Limit players to a maximum win amount. For example on a drawing promotion, limit a player to only one win. Other customers seeing the same person win a drawing multiple times causes a public relations problem. 4. Negotiate- pros will agree to restrictions as opposed to being thrown out. For example limit play to 3 hours per day or 10 hours per week. Bob then told of how the Santa Fe allows two machine play and that they should limit it to one and this will solve a lot of problems.
Bob now presents some case studies: On a RIVERBOAT: 1. April 1996 a. double points promo, b. Two 97% machines were changed and replaced with 10-7 DB 100.51% at $1 level. A married couple found the two machines and won over $40,000. -[Lesson] if you get heavy action on a few machines that is a trouble sign. One can lose your job if players continue to clobber you 2. LV Strip Summer 1997. Less than 100% machines were replaced with $1 joker 100.65%. Promo begins were top 40 players over next 4 months get a free trip for 2 to the Bahamas. Casino realized error and removes machines, but replaces them will 100.76% deuces! When these were then pulled, 35 of 40 spots went to these $1 players, each who had won about $10,000 plus the free trip. Bob said he had a good time during his free trip to the islands. -[Lesson] better way to handle this type of promotion : set it up so good players do not get to win the prize. Set it up so the non-winning players win. 3. Downtown LV circa 1994-1995 A bingo card promotion makes a bingo square punch worth about $10 a square for a 4 of a kind hit. The casino already had 100.5% vp. There was no verification of the punches. Change girls could be bribed for $2 to secure and extra punch. [netting player $8 bonus] Soon going rate was down to $1 with change girls now instructing players how to do it. Casino responded by barring 4 players who hit royal and repeated promotion the following year but at $5 a punch. - [Lesson] Look for where cheating might occur. Basically honest people will cheat the IRS, Telephone company and casinos. 4. Silverton LV - promotion started where one four of a kind a day paid double. This coincided with the doubling of slot club cash back and comp points. They reacted by slowing machines down, barring players, including 25c players and taking away their comp points. About 5-10 players were barred. Machines were eliminated and are still gone. The casino ended up losing 50% of its player base. -[Lesson] Better way to handle this is to call in advice, admit mistake, cut losses. Then learn how to handle 100% VP without losing your shirt.
The floor was now open to questions. Q: Bob, there is not a lot of 100% games outside NV. Some jurisdictions do not allow it. Do you see 100% games disappearing here in NV? A: There are lots of of 100% games in Mississippi. I do not see 100% games going away in NEV. I think in Louisiana, state law limits maximum payback to 94%. [I had asked this of Compton in the past and he told me that 100%+ VP is a big drawing card for NV casinos. If NV eliminated it, a tourist would simple opt to play at their local hometown casino, as a big incentive for making the trip to NV would have been eliminated.] Q: Compare locals casinos to Strip resorts. A: Strip resorts are tight since the player base is not as knowledgeable as the at the local joints. There is no incentive for a strip property to offer good games. However, some strip properties are going after some local players. The Luxor, New Frontier and Barbary Coast. Q: What is the average machine hold at local joints. A: These stats are not broken down between VP and Slots. Only 1 figure is given and it is around 2-3%. So I am guessing this would break down to about 1% hold for VP and 4-5% for slots. Q: How much of revenue is plowed back into comps A: [Compton replies] About 8% of slot revenue of local joints is paid back out though slot club benefits. For Strip properties it is higher- 15-20% of slot revenues is given back in the form of comps.
[10 minute break, Compton will speak next on Slot Bonusing, I will report this in part 2]
[In a conversation during the break with one who was present, it was revealed the Reserve lost $12,000 for the month of February when they offered double points all month and triple points on Mondays]
Hi,
Does anybody know where I can get my hands on a roulette computer?
Regards L.V
P.S Critics please hold your breath!!
You may contact me. I have interesting information on the availablity of roulette computers and on the viability of this sort of approach at the present time. If you're thinking about opportunities in Nevada, forget it.
But, there is a whole world of gambling located outside Nevada, and indeed outside the U.S.
It is difficult to explain the concepts inherent in playing baccarat with a positive expectation briefly, which is why I wrote a book, but I will have a try.
The first posts deals solely with card-counting, which is not neccessarily the best way to attack the game.
I am largely in agreement with the received wisdom concerning the exploitation of the main wagers with a card-counting system.
The tie bet, however, is vulnerable to card-counting very deep in the deck. Advantages are infrequent and non-linear. They cannot be exploited with any single-paramater count system. This is because very large advantages occur at deep penetration which any linear count system would describe as having a negative expectation. Traditional count systems work on the assumption of a standard deck with a mild deficency of one card rank, at deep penetration this assumption can be wildly inaccurate, as the deck structure itself collapses.
Abdul has already stated that almost 2% of your bankroll can be won on the tie bet with 16 cards remaining to be dealt if we note down all the cards and analyze expectation perfectly. It can be much higher with deeper penetration. I once found a game which had 100% penetration. You could earn 75% of your bankroll in such a game every hour.
The advantages when they do occur, can be very large. With European-style penetration, you can obtain advantages in excess of 100%. I have gone some way to developing methods to detect these situations. The advantages occur with extremely high concentrations of tens and one other card of a particular rank. For example, if tens and fives only remain, you can see that the tie has an enormous advantage, since there are only two possible outcomes (the precise % advantage figure depends on the exact proportion of tens to fives, but it will not be less than 300%).
Now, such a situation is rare. But if we add a card of a different rank our advantage is reduced, but still very large , generally in excess of 50% (depending on the particular card). If we add up all the situations where tens and other ranked cards completely or almost dominate the deck structure then we find these situations still do not occur often, but when they do, the % advantages and associated optimal bet sizes are large enough for us to profit as a practical matter.
True, you cannot detect smaller tie advantages so easily. But then, why would you want to? The optimal bet sizes for small tie advantages are very small,owing to its great volatility, so this will not seriously affect your bankroll growth.
Significant increase in expectation and reduced fluctuations can be achieved by leaving games which have an excessive number of tens dealt out, as the deck will then be unlikely to produce the kind of extreme subsets neccessary for an advantage.
Of course, there are problems with baccarat card-counting that prevented me from marketing this system aggressively as a system to create easy wealth.
Firstly, the slightest error will eliminate your advantage entirely. Failing to record or recording a single card erroenously will wipe out your advantage entirely. Therefore you could only make this system workable with a partner double-checking your notation.
Secondly, you will have to make very large jumps in your bet size on the tie bet. There is no easy way to disguise this: though fortunately there is no heat at baccarat so this will probably not attract great attention. If you were to be winning large amounts however then naturally people do get suspicous.
Thirdly, as with blackjack and poker, not every game is exploitable. If half of a deck is cut out of play or burned, then the game is not worth your time.
Finally, the optimal bet sizes will be affected by the many table minimum negative expectation wagers you will have to make to stay in the game off the top of the deck. You would have to analyze the compound expectation of the various bets to come out with a workable formula for bet sizing. I would not pretend to be mathematically competent enough to do this, beyond recommending a crude approximate adjustment. I believe Thorp has done some work in this area recently. A paper he wrote on the subject is availabe at www.bjmath.com.
It is always to your financial disadvantage to deviate from optimal betting. I cannot underestimate the importance of this. It will make more difference to your lifetime earnings than anything else,whatever your game.
There is more than one way to skin a cat.
A few years back I became fascinated with some obscure technical papers written by Thorp which have never been made publicly available. One sentence in particular leapt out at me "the play of many games is altered by the nonrandomness of human shuffling. In particular this nonrandomness yields simple winning strategies at blackjack, baccarat and faro." (Nonrandom shuffling with application to the game of faro, Journal of the American Statistical, 1974)
In fact the method Thorp proposes, what is now known variously as sequence-tracking, key carding or ace location, is not easily applied to baccarat. I am not going to explain the method in a public forum as it is too near the mark. However,the knowledge that a specific card will appear within a "target zone" following the appearance of certain key cards is useless information at baccarat. This is because any given card could be given to either punto or banco. This largely cancels out the advantage of knowing a card will appear in a given hand.
However, this assumes that the likelihood of a card ending up in the "target zone" following the appearance of the key cards is equiprobable. In fact it is not. A study by Wong in Professional Blackjack(1994) reveals shuffle studies that show there is much more likely to be a 1 card separation between previously consecutive card orderings following a shuffle, than it is for the cards to remain in consecutive order.
How is this exploitable? Well, if you were to track nines and following the shuffle your key cards came out as the last cards of one hand, then you would you know the nine was more likely to appear as banco's first card than punto. This would give you an edge of between 5 and 10% on banco.
I know of some individuals who have devised other, possibly more powerful methods of exploiting non-randomness at baccarat. For example, multiple sequences can be tracked by scorecard and a good idea of the composition of a given hand can be ascertained.
Now, there is a serious drawback to this method. Namely that most casinos thoroughly randomize the cards at big table baccarat. Nevertheless it is quite possible to exploit many mini-baccarat games.
The thorough shuffling creates problems of its own for the casinos. Namely that certain procedures physically expose the location and value of certain cards, to players who are skilled in what might be called "angle-shooting" at poker, but whose use is both legal and ethical at baccarat. Again, this is something I cannot go into too much detail about for the protection of others using this method.
Some methods that I am fairly sure noone else is aware of, so I may speak freely about them:
Some card backs are not perfectly symmetrical. It is possible to sort these cards into an order that is meaningful to you. For example, if a casino logo is arched high on end of the card and low on the other, you can turn the card backs of all 8 or 9's so that the casino logo is high, and all other cards so the casino logo is low. You can then determine when an 8 or 9 is to be dealt (this gives you a 17 or 21% advantage on player). This method requires a shoe with no cover and the casino to reuse cards. (This technique was developed by Stanford Wong. I do not think anyone has mentioned its application to baccarat)
In those casinos where you are both allowed to handle the cards and the shuffle is nonrandom you may be able to induce card sequences. You have a certain measure of control over the way cards are returned to the dealer. You might arrange the order so that like-valued cards go back into the shoe together. This will create a greater number of ties in the following shoe than the pure odds would dictate. You can exploit this information.
Some casinos use decks of two different colours to prevent cheating. Again this is exploitable. You can track the removal of all the blue cards and all the red cards. If an excess number of natural cards develops in one type of deck (say, red), and an excess number of low cards develops in the blue decks, you will know that when a red card is waiting to be dealt as first card from the shoe the player has the best of it.
Some dealers develop a bad habit of drawing a card halfway out of the shoe before the drawing/standing decisions have determined whether it is actually needed. Sometimes this card will be exposed to a sharp perceptive player in the correct position, who then knows which card will be dealt first on the subsequent hand.
There are other tricks of course: you can exploit dealer errors, reduced bank commissions, etc. Mason Malmuth wrote about a trick in "Getting the best of it" whereby a gambler persuaded a casino to write off his commissions after a heavy loss. This gives you a 1.2% edge on every hand.
I'm not much of a baccarat player (indeed, my only experience with the game came about four years ago in a casino in Vegas under the heavy influence of Yukon Jack), and I haven't bothered to read much on it. In fact, I'm (I think understandable) a bit leary of anyone who says the game can be beaten. Which brings me to my next point: can you honestly say that you have beaten the game using the concepts outlined in your book? Please understand this is not a loaded question- I'm not looking for you to say 'yes' so I can blast you. I'm simply curious, and I think that any prospective readers of your book have a right (well, no not a right, but can reasonably expect) a truthful answer on this.
I think you can understand my wariness. If your system in fact works (that is, it can make one money in a casino environment) than I suspect you could sell it for tens of thousands of dollars to private individuals- or, barring that, use it yourself and make millions before the inevitable gaggle of 'baccarat counters' swarm the world's gambling meccas and screw up the games. In short, why publish such a lucrative system and sell it for a couple bucks to the public, when more money could be made otherwise?
Again, I'm not baiting you-- I'd just like to see some answers to these questions.
Which brings me to my next point: can you honestly say that you have beaten the game using the concepts outlined in your book?
Yes, I personally made a lot of money with this method. I do not overemphasize this because the results of one individual's play over less than several decades prove nothing. To illustrate: many progression players prosper in negative expectation games for long periods. Blackjack card-counters often have negative streaks exceeding a year. This proves nothing.
I would advise you to be on your guard with individuals who make an overt display of their wealth. The most successful active players who move on the internet such as Ian Anderson and Abdul, or Sklansky and Malmuth, have enough class not to make others feel second-rate by bragging about their winnings.
If your system in fact works (that is, it can make one money in a casino environment) than I suspect you could sell it for tens of thousands of dollars to private individuals- or, barring that, use it yourself and make millions before the inevitable gaggle of 'baccarat counters' swarm the world's gambling meccas and screw up the games. In short, why publish such a lucrative system and sell it for a couple bucks to the public, when more money could be made otherwise
I suggest you look closely at my first post. I gave several reasons why the method is difficult to apply in practice. Sure, it can be lucrative. It can also be tedious, frustrating and not without an element of physical danger. Players without the appropriate qualities will probably lose a bundle if they try to execute these methods. This is no different from playing blackjack or poker. It is no more and no less possible to make millions at these games than it is at baccarat.
You cannot sell systems to private individuals for thousands of dollars unless you are very well-connected and are already a well-established authority. Marketing simply doesn't work that way. I have little interest in going into business with a system in any case.I am not a businessman and I do not want to be. My publisher takes care of that side of things for me.
You might also address your questions to Sklansky, Malmuth, Thorp or Wong. All of them chose to release invaluable information to the public. As they have proven, writing and successful play are not mutually exclusive.
One further aspect is that by bringing my work into the public domain these methods can be developed further. A book develops a body of interest around its subject that expands its paramaters. Many possibilities have been opened up to me since writing the book that I would never have considered.
Finally, I doubt that baccarat counters would "screw" up games. The cost of the potential countermeasures, such as shuffling up early, would hurt the casinos so badly they would be very unwise to follow that path. As with blackjack card-counting, there will be a great deal of publicity for the game of baccarat resulting from interest in such systems, but few will actually have the discipline to become appropriately skilled in this area.
Excellent points. And thanks for giving us an answer.
BTW, the reasons you gave for publishing the book all crossed my mind when I wrote my post. Still, I don't think it hurts to ask, as you can learn as much from the tone of the response as you can from the response itself.
Good luck to you. Hope the book is doing well.
Tuesday - I place a bet on Duke at -11.
Saturday - Right before the game, the line is -9.
Saturday - Duke wins by 10.
Do I win or lose?
My guess is that you're wondering if sports betting is like parimutuel betting. It's not. In sports betting, at least in all the major US casinos and sportsbooks, you get the bet you place when you place it. It doesn't matter if the line moves with you or against you, your bet remains constant. In parimutuel betting, you're not betting against the house, but against the other bettors. All winning bets are paid by the losing bets, so your payoff will change based upon bets made after yours. Thus, in this situation, the odds might be 5:1 when you bet, but could go up or down by the time the race starts. If they go up, that's good for you, if down, bad.
Sorry about your result. That's the risk you take when you place an early bet. Of course, the line could have moved the other way, and then you'd have been holding a bargain ticket.
Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)
Vince-
I'm not trying to flame you here, but I want to give you a piece of advice; don't bet on sports until you have a very clear understanding of what moves the lines (particularly in college sports), what these line moves mean, what a 'middle' means and how you can take advantage of good 'middling' opportunities, etc. In other words, learn everything you can about sports betting before you place another bet. To get a good grasp of the fundamentals of sports betting, I'd read the Bob McCune books and J.R. Miller's book on handicapping football (both available through the gambling book club).
One other thing-- DO NOT BUY PICKS FROM ANYONE WHO HAS A 1-900 NUMBER. You WILL get scammed. The best anyone can hope for is between 56-58% in the long run, and this is only if there working upwards of sixty hours a week formulating their opinions. There are literally SCORES of con artists out there who will tell you they can hit 70% or so for a season but they are LYING.
If you want to make any money betting sports you have to either a) put in a ton of time, and be prepared to lose for a couple of years, or b) find a quality handicapper. Neither of these are easy. PROCEED WITH CAUTION.
The question isn't well posed. Depending on the BJ rules and the poker rake the numbers could vary. Actually, very radically for BJ.
If you want a detailed answer you might check out a past intelligent gambler (www.conjelco.com). I believe that MM had an article comparing poker and BJ win rates in a past issue.
I'll take a stab at it. A good to great poker player will make between $20-$40 an hour playing $10-$20. A blackjack player would have to spread $10-$40 to make about $25 at single deck BJ. At double deck, he would have to spread $10-$80 to make a little less. At six deck BJ he'd have to spread $10-$120 and exit on negative counts to make about $25. If he could find an eight deck game with good penetration, hhe would have to spread $10-$160. Very few of AC's eight deckers have good penetration.
All of this is from memory, I don't have Blackjack Attack by Don Schlesinger handy, which is where my memories come from. All figures assume it is at least a good game (good pen and good rules). There are alot of variables so these are rough estimates. Standard Deviation is greater in BJ. If you are a good poker player, I'd stick with poker. If you are like me, an average player working to get better-I'd stick with poker. Only if you just can't get the poker mojo working would I switch to serious BJ, particularly on the East Coast. If you live in/near Nevada or Mississippi BJ might be worth looking into.
Switch to serious BJ on the east coast? And spend your days backcounting those miserable eight deckers? It sounds like something has changed since the last time I was there.
I agree with what you say, however I thought one additional point worth making. That is that a blackjack player who becomes a competent counter may be able to substantially further his earnings and reduce his fluctuations by mastering techniques based on external phenomena such as shuffle-tracking and front-loading (as well as a whole host of techniques best not talked about in a public forum).
I think by contrast the advances a good poker player can make on his technique are subject to the law of diminishing returns. This is partly because techniques based on external phenomena are considered cheating or angle-shooting at poker, while their use is ethical and legal at blackjack.
One other reason players may prefer blackjack is that you are winning money from an anonymous and amoral organization rather than fellow players.
amoral organization? I may find casinos smoke filled and oppressive but the caino organizations themselves provide incomes for a large number of people. I prefer casino's stupid attempts at barring counters to your average casino showing they employ any kind of intelligence.
To go along with your other comments... I think that you probably have a better ability to make large amounts of money at high stakes blackjack then at poker but that poker provides a better chance for longevity and lower variance.
I don't see why the two can complement each other togher with taking advantage of any other +EV play you can find including bacarrat, tournament play, special promotions, new games, etc. I like the concept of looking for +EV and not limiting myself to just one game.
In the last paragraph I meant to say "I don't see why the two CAN'T complement each other ..."
Mr. Stockman, I'll give it a go. Volatility in stock prices for instance pertains to how much the price per share of a given stock fluctuates. Implied Volatility pertains to the price of an option. The implied volatility for an option is given by the premium you are paying for an option above intrinsic value. There are many books on options that can no doubt explain these concepts better than I did. Options pricing is a very interesting subject in its own right which you may find interesting. Tom Haley
Other Gambling Games
March 1999 Digest is provided by Two Plus Two Publishing and ConJelCo