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I was recently invited in on a card school whose members refuse to play anything other than three-card brag. I would like to join, as several of the regulars are soft touches, but have never played the game. I have a copy of the basic rules, but wondered if anyone could give me a helping hand with some strategy hints? How is it similar to poker? How does it differ? And are there any good books/software programs on the market dealing with the game?
Regards,
Richard
You may never read this Richard as I am a poker junkie and do not usually go on this forum and it is a while since you posted.
Its simple, get the nuts and bet.
Most games have a round of blinds, sometimes UTG decides the amount. The rest of the players can follow or fold. A player can remain blind and all "braggers" (the players who have seen their cards) have to pay 2 bets into the pot to the blindmans 1. You cannot see the blindmans cards until he starts bragging.
What you want here, is to get in on a blindman one2one with a decent hand. You are paying 2/1 in bets but I am sure you can work the math better than I for the hand he needs to have to beat you. This game usually starts tight and then loosens incredibly!!!.
The deck is not shuffled until a prile comes out, this often causes the odd bar room fight.
Note - A run beats a flush, sometimes, check how that card school play, usually trip 3's is the best hand but some play trip aces.
Big Al is back after meeting with his Vegas and Cali sources. Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving. Sorry about that Lions/Giants pick, yikes, what a stinker! One of the few shoe in misses this year. Did redeem myself with the Atlanta/Oakland game though. I posted I thought the score would be 38-7 and it ended up 41-14. So, here is this week's shoe in, its the Monday night game-New England vs. Kansas City. Take New England and give the point. This is KC's fifth road game in six weeks-thats brutal. We saw how they looked against SF three weeks ago on their third road game in a row. These guys are beat up, discouraged, and on the road again. I know NE sucks, but KC is staggering...This is Big Al's shoe in of the week.
I Love You, Man.
hehehe...thanks. New England almost bumbled it away at the end, although I got a point so the worst it could have been was a push for me.
Ok, I am back from a terrible business trip and then wonderful vacation and ready to rejoin the grind here in Vegas. I will start off with this one tip, I swear you can't lose with it! I hope the books don't read this board much because it could blow my bets, but wait until you get this one! I know it may not yield an actual win, but hey its worth a try with this freeroll.
Here is the deal, on many online betting sites they have lines on the Mexican soccer playoffs that started today. I know I may be the only guy on here that follows Mexican soccer, but anyways there is a game that was played this afternoon and ITS STILL BEING OFFERED ON JUST ABOUT EVERY SPORTS BOOK I LOOK AT!!! In other words they got bad information on when the game will be played. So like I say, if you can get your bet down and they are foolish enough to take your action you can't lose! I suspect they just might figure it out tomorrow, but its worth a shot. Here is the game, Santos beat Necaxa 2-1 today. The price on the game is even money so whatever you bet on Santos will be doubled should the bet be paid. Since almost no one bets on these games it just might slip through the cracks. To avoid trouble I just made normal sized bets with two books that I have bet Mexican league games before, that way I am hoping that even if they figure it out it won't look like I am trying to cheat them out of a lot of money.
On another note, what do you all think about this? Is it bad for us to try to "cheat" like this? The two books I used are two of my lower books that get little action from me so I couldn't care less if they got pissed at me doing this. Anyways, there you go, a pick that really is a shoe in.
Several years ago during one of the strikes/lockouts of the NHL/NBA/NFL , the national sports lottery here in Canada, Sports Select, was offering up English Premier League Soccer games as product to flesh out the game selection. As I recall, a slate of games on a Monday were switched in England to the afternoon from the evening because it was a holiday. No one at Sports Select HQ got the info, and they offered the games with deadlines as per evening starts.
Some sports junkies in Ontario with family connections back in England called home to get the skinny on the games, and were pleasantly surprised to learn the games had already been played. They still had about a 2-hour window to get down as much action as they could on multi-game parlays offering great payouts, and from what I remember reading at the time, guys were raising cash by whatever means they could. Sports Select got wise after the fact, and bitched about paying out, but eventually they paid in full. Was in the millions in total.
To me it would depend on which book I would be taking advantage of. Most sportbooks I use, who almost always resolve disputes in the customers favour, offer good odds and in general are not trying to take advantage of their customers, I would not ever bet after the result is known. Other books, espically one Australian sports-book who used to blatantly cheat(see below),I would try to take as much money as I could.
How this sportsbook cheated: For any internet bet made close to starting time of event do not accept or reject-leave as "PENDING". Half way through event decide whether to accept or reject bet depending on who is winning, of course rejecting bets that look like winning. If anyone complained, point out that "We reserve the right to accept or reject any bets we like". It wasn't until someone complained to the government authority that this practice was stopped, but who knows how money punters lost.
I work for an online sportsbook in England...... but I am also a keen sports bettor too.
I beleive it is at the very least unethical to bet after a match has been played.
It is kinda like insider trading on stocks. How can it be a wager.....? if you cannot lose???
I know by experience how difficult it is assertain kick off times for some games.
I also know if you are caught placing a bet after the result is known..... we will never give you action ever again.
yea but Hawk if someone bets after the game and didnt know and bet the wrong side you would keep his money. so if he bets the right side he is a thief. the only way to have your view correct is if you refund all bets everytime you put up a line on a game that has already started or is over by mistake. then half of your customers would feel you slighted them. if you put up a line and take the bet you should pay off with a smile. thats good busines and the proper thing to do, not to second guess a customers intentions. sorry to disagree on what may be a sore point for you.
No kidding, notice the use of the word fraud too. Listen, fraud is not a word you just bandy about because you think someone has taken advantage of you. Fraud implies a deliberate attempt to mislead, not just trying to take advantage of a mistake that you shouldn't leave out there. Fraud would be if I hacked into your computer and changed the actual time I placed a bet, fraud would be if I hacked your computer and placed a bet after you closed the action/took it off the board, fraud would be if I sent you a bogus credit card deposit and bet it up. Simply put this is far from fraud. Maybe a bit unethical, but sometimes I fail to see how everyone running books is totally ethical. I respect the other side of the counter more than just about anyone betting around, but if you are going to leave up a beatable proposition then you aren't doing your job and I am not doing mine by not taking advantage of it. This kind of claim by a sportsbook sounds like the refrain you hear from casino operators that call card counting cheating and saying card counters are criminal in their activity. If you put out a beatable game, don't come crying when someone actually uses their intelligence to beat you. As the word has been going around Vegas and the Caribbean, the winning players in sports are no longer really welcome. "We created this for the recreational guy, ie loser" is a disgusting travesty because the whole allure of the game, both sports and blackjack is that you can indeed beat it if you work hard and take advantage of opportunities. Few can realize this ultimate reward, but many more try. To say you won't be allowed to play if you actually get to that level smacks of serious hypocrisy. Ok, enough...just don't forget I warned all books that they are leaving holes out there and to all the players that these types of situations do exist and there are players a lot more "unscrupulous" than me who would try to take you for everything they could. As for not taking their action thats even more ridiculous. Turning away a good customer because he beat you out of a bet you should never have allowed just seems to me bad business practices especially when you rip any soccer bettor off in the first place with outrageous vig as all you UK bookmakers are fully guilty of!
It's not unheard of for a UK casino to warn a suspected counter, "If you're counting cards, we kindly ask you to refrain from doing so," which would be laughable in America. When a UK casino boots a card counter, the casino management sends him a letter in the mail saying that he will no longer be permitted in the club and that "Neener, neener, neener, we're not going to give you back your membership fee," which is usually around 20 pounds (30 dollars) but which is sometimes more like 200 pounds (300 dollars). That's immoral. It's the British mentality that you shouldn't try to screw the system, whereas it's the American mentality that you should do everything in your power to screw the system. Damn redcoats.
-Abdul
If it is bought to our attention that we have a kick off time incorrect ALL BETS are void win or lose.
No if or buts. ALL OF THEM.
Cheers,
Keith
It is kinda like insider trading on stocks. How can it be a wager.....? if you cannot lose???
The legal definitions, at least in UK law, are very clear. Insider trading on the stock exchange is an offence. Insider trading on sports is not. Provided nothing is done to influence the result of a game its legal. This is not fraud.
I maybe out of line here.
BUT,
when I first came here, it was a vibrant debating arena about handicapping and sports betting.
Now,
It seems it is a place where people come to post picks.
Is it just me...... or is this message board boring these days? (wildbill excepted)
Cheers,
Keith
I'm not about to get my sports betting friends upset with me by giving anything away here, but I have to comment on some stuff.
This is a poker website. The authors are world clas poker players that are awesome. I'm sure it has great poker info. But I went back through 6 months of postings for worthwhile info. on sports stuff, and barely could find a crumb. Thank goodness for the soccer post describing past posting that came up.....THAT is what you guys need to start doing more of. Also, Abdul had some good analysis, and anything the Green Bay Vampire (that's what I like to call him) writes is always good, but by and large it is a COMPLETE WASTELAND.
An example is the most recent golf analysis. Just a bunch of useless info. with no helpful hints/ no useful ideas.zip. Where is the stuff like:
Basic strategy for Betting golf:
1) Look to play only props where vig is 20 cents (-110/-110) or (-150/+130) 2) Look to play against Tiger (he must be overrated by now) 3) Here is the opportunity. 4) Here is the places to play golf props (In Vegas, IP and Regent)
Example? British open. Several shops post a Tiger final round score. As you recall, he was clobbering everyone. I believe most posted 4 under. The IP posted 5 under. HUGE value. I played him to do worse than the IP posted number. Won it by 1 stroke. Start putting stuff like this up, and you will get some sharp guys. Til that happens, all of your members, including the authors, are going to have to keep riding that Poker horse, and you are wasting your time with sports.
Sorry for the tough love. This will be my last post. Good luck to all.
:)
Ps. I may be the worst poker player on this webpage!
Fezzik
Have you ever stopped to think that there really aren't that many talented sports bettors out there? I thought differently, but over time I have to come to find maybe 2 dozen people on posting boards that seem to have material to contribute. After all did you read the joke of a sports section in the Gambling For A Living Book put out by the site's hosts? I am not knocking David for his talents, but that had to be the lamest effort at imparting sports knowledge when you consider that they put good, albeit basic, information in there on poker, blackjack, promotions, and lifestyle. I am not trying to knock those that put up a good effort but I am coming to the belief that many players today are winning only with the slightest of edges because there are so many easy shopping opportunities and the books lines aren't that solid. Its not hard to pick 55% with some work, some shopping, and soft lines. It is hard to pick 60% even with all that going for you. In the end though it just reflects the rise in sports betting that continues even as the casino people here in Vegas are all but killing it. If you get enough losers to get on the bandwagon there will be plenty of money out there on the table for the winners, even if they have only marginal skills and don't work hard enough to be a solid winner.
Now that's a good post.
I agree strongly that David's attempt at imparting sports knowledge was the equivalent of Cleveland trying to score TDs. Whether they try real hard, or just mail it in, either way they aren't going to score..... they just do have the competency to get it done right now. But at least Cleveland is trying!
M personal favorite botched analysis from David's book, was where he said each extra point obtained on an NFL game was worth about 3% (oversimplification, but I'm a-ok with it). He then says, so when betting 6 point teasers, you have a 65% chance to get a game right. Huh? Shouldn't that be 68%? And with some places still offering 2 team teasers at even money, all one has to do is identify games where that 68% jumps to 71%.... a mere 3% bump up, and now you have a profitable situation. And the distribution of NFL margins is VERY skewed. Some points are worth much more than 5%. So do a LITTLE math, put forth a LITTLE effort, and you can id some VERY profitable situations.
Yet, the author concludes, "there are better ways to invest your money". And spends 40 pages talking about how the edge in racebooks (15%+, can be overcome......ugh!)
Incidentally, the race vs. sports analysis is probably one of the easiest ways to id a wannabe sports/race winner. With the house vig so much higher in the racebook, any solid author would spend much more time on sports. When they split their time 50/50 it typically means they are "mailing it in" just covering the material without really having ever mastered the sports opportunities. To the author's credit, I do think he acknowledged the most successful professional gamblers bet sports, since the upside is highest there.
Re: Advice. I cannot really give out a lot. But a great rule of thumb to new bettors is to only bet an NFL game when
1) You get an underdog (they cover 51.5% or so longtern) 2) You get a number at least 1/4 point higher than the average of 6 or so casino posted lines (example, 4 at 6.5, 2 at 7) 3) For 2 above, you get a key number on 3,3', 7, 7', 10, 10', 14, 14'. 4) Bet just prior to the game; lines tend to increase the day of games. 5) Your capping indicates that you like this team to cover
You will have great difficulty losing if you follow the above algorithm.
How does your algorithm translate to college football?
Dogs in college are not nearly as powerful as dogs in the NFL. I still would rather have the dog, but you are looking at just an eyelash over 50%. Also, the NFL is tighter to expectation, so that xtra 1/2 point helps more in the NFL than college. Having said that, you still should try to follow the algorithm. It would have put you on Kstate +3 vs. Oklahoma, but would have had you pass is only getting +2.5, etc.
instead of going away because there is not enough of what you want to read, maybe make some good posts to stimulate the conversations. i can see you know your stuff but dont want to share it. thats understandable but you can talk alot without hurting yourself. not to pick on you but i see some posts on the forums where a person that hardly ever or never posts complains about the topics. i believe that to get the topics you want just post about them and you will find some surprises coming out of the woodwork. i bet if you contibute sooner or later just one sentence someone says will make you alot of money.
remember the best spots bettors in the world are also some of the best poker players in the world. good luck.
I don't agree with the correlation great poker players vs. great sports bettors. Once a great bettor gets a critical mass bankroll together (250k or so) he cannot imagine having to grind out his living playing poker, banking a 21 table, or other such nonsense; it's a lot easier to do research in a non smoky, home environment, walk up to a sportsbook or carib book, and say "under" and get the money. And I don't think even the best poker players can make more than $100k a year playing (but I could be wrong)
I remember driving 70 miles to bank at Casino San Manual years ago. UGH! Smoke blown in my face, horribly ignorant players, rude dealers, bad clientele, etc. But I was making $75 an hour, so at the time it was worth it!
There are quite a few players making over six figures a year playing poker. If you read the book we were talking about they estimate a few hundred a year doing it. Frankly that number is low because I am very aware to the fact that most of the solid money makers don't play in the "limelight" so to speak. They play big private games that are spread throughout the country. I met one such player who makes far above 6 figures playing games in the northeast. There are more players than you can imagine that want to play high limits but don't want the government in their business. If you play anything above 40-80 chances are you will be filling out forms at some time. The IRS doesn't realize what havoc their reporting regulations have caused to legal gambling in this country. Its chased away much of the sports action, it keeps quite a few gamblers for all games out of Vegas in favor of Monte Carlo and Australia, it has convinced a lot of people to bet offshore instead of in the sports books. Bottom line is that much of the big money gambling action has gone underground or offshore.
fez,
i didnt imply i think, a correlation but there is. the best sports bettors are indeed very high stakes poker players. some began as sports bettors and came over and visa versa. they are not grinders by any means. the best poker players make much more than 100 a year as do the best sports bettors. im talking about 200 limit and no limit players and 10,000 a game and more sports bettors. yet just a very good 50 limit player that finds games every day that are decent will make more than that.
I'm no expert at Rounders type Poker play, but who wants the kind of lifestyle that back room games have? I agree that playing a bunch of crummy players in a country club would be ideal to get the money. But let me amend..... people making 6 figures legally betting in Nevada.
Re: Sports bettors. I simply don't think there are more than 10 people tops making 6 figures actually betting on games in the country. If you bet 10k a game, bet 100 games, and hit 55%, and make straight bets, you win 550k, lose 495k, and make 55k. And they would flock to the great promos periodically offered; guess what...... even when a place offers free 1/2 points, there is hardly anyone taking adv. of it. And look at the very knowledgable bettors, that spend all their time as touts. People know sports, but not math. And to win big at sports, you need both.
you are just havent been exposed to the high players in poker and sports. there are many that have made multi millions betting sports or and playing poker. and doing the gambling at home over the phone or in legal casinos.
You are not even close to the truth there. Most pro gamblers bet 100 games A MONTH! Think about it, do you really think pro sports bettors bet only two games a week?
Here is some simply reality math for you. I started out in 1994 betting sports for a living. My bankroll started at $70,000 with $5,000 additional set aside for living expenses and at that level I made dime bets. I didn't vary my bet, everything was a $1,100 bet or slightly higher or lower depending on the odds to go with it. In my first year when I was still learning, I went 632-547 for all my bets that year (I bet year round) and because I use a slightly different system then most dealing with my vig I won almost all that in net units. In other words I did what is called sopping up the juice (read about it in Bob McCune's book if you wish) I got almost all my net wins at 100% instead of paying juice on them. If I had perfectly done that I would have won $85,000, but I didn't I ended up with $74,520. During my first year I vowed not to raise or lower my bet unless necessary which would be if I lost half my BR. I never came close to that, with my worst point about one month in dropping about 7 bets below my starting point. Year two I began making larger bets, in this case I bet when I could $1,200, but a few times I ran into dime limits. Anyways I also instituted a system of raising my bets when my BR was protected. I ended the year betting $1,500/bet. Year 2 I did much better as my experience paid off somewhat. Note in year one I only won at 53.6%, certainly not the pie in the sky a lot of people think pros pick at. In year 2 I worked much harder at it and also cut down on my bets a little bit. My final record was 531-412, 56.3%. However my average price on baseball went from -104 to -109 so I wasn't quite as efficient on the surface and bases made up over 45% of my total wagers for the year. In the end I made $158,344. Six figures because I put in a hell of a lot of work. Notice I bet about 3 games a day which really isn't that much. Lem Banker told me he bets over 40 college hoops games in a day at times and anywhere from 15-25 college football games in prime season. Most pros in fact do take the volume approach figuring their edges add up. When you sop the juice this is a much riskier approach, but just so you know its done.
After the end of the next baseball season I quit. I gave it up. I was aging 10 years in a 5 month season or so it felt. The money is good but the stress is worse. And note, I didn't put up with too many smoky rooms filled with degenerates as I came in and out of the action for one hour or so a day and booked the rest by phone. Back then you had to go in because Barbary had the best deal with a nickel line (yeah hard to imagine now isn't it?) and Caesars had it the next year when Barbary stopped. So really my routine was two casinos, then a pay phone to bet at the phone books at Hilton, Stardust, Mirage, and Binions, then home to work some more and catch a few hours sleep before starting over again. Sounds great, but you really have no life that way and I was convinced the stress and lack of life would eventually crack me. Even though I left a ton of money on the table no doubt it was the right decision.
If anyone wants to make good money its certainly there, but boy you certainly better want it more than you can ever even imagine if you want to reach your goals. Now I spend maybe an hour or two a day on handicapping baseball, but back then I would put in about 80-90 hours a week on it. The other sports seasons I would put in around 65-70. I gave myself September off yet couldn't really relax when out of town because it just didn't feel right to be in the swing of things. You really do get almost addicted to your schedule when you work that hard. Of course I had the advantage of having done it for many years and that allowed me to have a proper BR to start not to mention the knowledge I had gained going in. I doubt too many people have 70 dimes handy for a BR, but if sports betting is your goal, figure you need at least 5 years of serious amateur experience before you go pro. You need it to handle the stresses of losing and winning. I don't even flinch anymore when bad things happen to me. Tonight I had two plays going. Heat game bet the under and two terrible offenses manage to score 66 in the final quarter to crush my bet. I had the Senators game under and the two teams scored three times in the last 3 minutes, two of them pretty meaningless goals, to go over by half a goal. Long ago I would have been pissed to lose both of these games that looked safe late in the game, but I don't even think about it now. Having that kind of attitude is really important if you do this for a job. Believe me what Skalansky/Malmuth wrote in that book did no justice to what it takes to be a winning sports bettor. Poker players definitely live a different life than the sports bettors and the blackjack players, but that wasn't even mentioned.
Good post. And I believe you. Would very much appreciate your comments to lower the vig on hoops and football. I do things such that if I hit 51.3% I break even. Are you doing similar things?
I remember the CP and Barbary nickel lines. Even as an inexperienced bettor, I would bomb away vs. them, and did make some money. Don't those places prove my point though? How could ANY gambler not be playing like a madman vs. those two spots where you could get the best number on a side 90% of the time, and often a no vig or bettor number. The line should have been out the door.... but I see VERY few betting even nickels during prime town. Maybe they all had phone accounts, but if you are a pro, would you risk being id'd as a winner on your account? I think most would say "no"!
Your "bet the same on all games" comment concerns me. I think you cost yourself with this constraint. When you got a really out of whack number, you HAD/HAVE to exploit it. Example? An NFL game where you love the dog, and get key help....Pitt last week +3.5 vs. Oaktown. When you see the 3.5, you gotta bet 3.5* more than normal or so!
I don't look at things that way. To me a bet is a bet. I have maybe a smaller edge one way or the other, but I also acknowledge the most important factor is one I cant control and thats luck. Maybe I did have more value on a certain game than another, but if I am unlucky in that game I won't cover. Basically I set a threshold of comfort I want on a bet and leave it at that. Besides I have at various times researched this very topic for myself and when looking back realized my percentage on the "marginal" games was almost as good as on the "great" games. Forget sizing your bets, it puts too much power into the hands of luck and it also wastes a lot of work. If you bet 4 times on one game then why even bother betting any game for a quarter or even a half the size of the bet.
Without a doubt, you will find many more successful bettors flat betting or doing very minor bet sizing. Some might size a bet in 1-5 units, but the 3 unit bet would be his normal flat bet so there isn't much variation there since he probably won't bet just 1 or even 2 unit games and he will rarely bet 5 units. Most bets will be 3 or 4 units with occasionally a 2 or a 5. Thats reasonable enough, but too much trouble when just worrying about picking a winning percentage is what you need to spend most of your time doing.
As for my method, well I have written about it here a few times and gotten ripped by Mason no less. Read about in Bob McCune's book. Its a fairly simple method that requires a little different bet sizing than you will normally see. If you want more email me and I will give you more details.
You made my arguement when you said
"historically I have hit at about the same rate at my marginal plays as my best bets"
This basically confirms that you are hitting about at the same rate for your picks. Since an xtra 1/2 point will increase your win rate by 1.5% or so, if you believe in Kelly Criteria you MUST bet more when getting help on a number vs. what is the prevailing rate.
:-0
That was my stone cold, lock of the decade. What an easy score!!!!
Well after leaving up a game overnight, today they only left it up a few hours after it finished :) I won't go into any more details since The Hawk claims he works for a book, but in any case lets just say I took a really juicy payoff today on the result of a game left up late. Oh how long can this last???
They are taking the bet. It is not your job to track the starting times, but theirs. Also, you could bet when the game has 2:00 to go also......or at 1/2 time. Would the purists still be upset?
Well to tell the truth I bet it when the match still had about 16 minutes left so I really did have a risk. Then again considering the way the Mexican playoffs work I also know that if the first game of a series is tied with under 20 minutes left it almost always becomes a bore as neither team seems to try all that hard to score. Damn job got in the way though as I had a meeting and couldn't wait any longer to make the bet that I felt pretty sure would still be up at the final whistle.
But.....
betting a game after the result is known is absolutely NO WAY the same as card counting.
although you have an edge when card counting, you do not KNOW you are going to win before you place your bet.
As I said below, if we get a start time wrong ALL bets are refunded win or lose.
We make every endeavour to get this information correct.
And as for your complaint about vig from UK bookies. Try looking at futures markets.
Our current betting on the Superbowl is 130%. If you can beat 180% in any Vegas casino..... you are doing well.
Cheers,
Keith
although you have an edge when card counting, you do not KNOW you are going to win before you place your bet.
Certain rarely encountered subsets, as Thorp points out in Beat the Dealer can give you 100% edge (or more). This is also true of other casino card games like baccarat and certain slot machines.
So if I see someone's cards in poker and know I have them beat do I have to fold or is the pot refunded? If I raise have I committed fraud?
You go into a bank.... to withdraw $500....... accidentally...... they give you $5000......
Do you give it back???
WGAF
Well lets see, the winning handicapper over time gets there by doing homework in almost all cases. He looks for edges and he takes them. Now I didn't go looking for this type of edge, but my efforts yielded some wins that were the result of doing some legwork. The books on the other hand shirked their duties and paid no attention to some basic facts. The argument that its not easy to keep track of these things is no excuse! If you can't keep track of it, why the hell are you booking them? I did my work and found some winners, if the books in question did their work they wouldn't have lost.
Now for comparing your odds on futures, what a scam! You still get 130% and you want to be proud of that? Futures are something I might bet once or twice a year. One could easily ignore them altogether. However soccer bets on some of these books number in the hundreds. I suspect the reason why books get away with their murderous vig is that they have to charge that vig in the UK due to the outrageous betting tax. Since the majority of the interest on these bets is in the UK, the books just figure why not deal the same lines elsewhere not realizing you make a lot more money on volume, not high vigs. Just look at it this way, I made I think 10 bets over the 17 week regular season in Mexico but if I had a reasonable line to work with I am sure I would have bet 5 times as many games. It takes a huge edge to beat the vig and I won't fight it unless I think I have that huge edge. The average bettor will lose his bankroll real fast if he bets regularly into that vig. Either way you get more action and more total vig in the end if you stop fleecing the public, whether it be soccer or futures vig, or anything else you put up there.
read the fine print on your bank account agreement. If they detect a mistake they won't ask for it back, they will just automatically deduct it from your account.
In legal terms, a sports book is making an 'offer' when it posts a line. When the bettor makes a bet he is accepting the offer. It is not the bettors fault that the book is making bad offers.
If someone offers to buy my old beat up car for the same price as a new one, do I refuse or make him pay me less?
Hawk, if there is an error between the stock price quoted on Exchange A and Exchange B, you jump on it. If that mistake is caused by human error, market inefficiency or the planets' misalignment in the solar system, you could not care less. You pounce! This is what punishment by the free market is all about. Being punished for mistakes is what makes things better.
If shop A is vigilant, they will realize that game XYZ has already been played and will pull the fixture down in time. If shop B is fast asleep on its money and still post the fixture, should they be treated by their patrons/the free market the same way??
I was running through some sportsbooks today and found a middling opportunity that might be of interest.
www.sportsbook.com has an Orange Bowl future of FSU -11 vs. Oklahoma, while www.jagsportsbet.com has the same game at -7. Four point difference looks pretty nice, especially such prime numbers. Can definately vouch for sportsbook.com, while the latter is a bit of an unknown commodity. Seems upstanding enough, though. Check it out. The only real downsides are the -115 juice and the fact that its no action if OU gets upset this weekend.
Just so you know.
Jaguar is legit. But they limit you to a crummy $500 on football props. I think the correct market line is more like 8, so the +11 is currently the real value. Also, if Oklahoma lays an egg and loses to Kstate, the line would go up to 10+, but since they won't play it won't matter. Conversely, if Okie whacks Bill Snyder's boys (and I hope that all well informed people root that this will happen), then the line may well go down by 1 point or so to reflect this Okie resurrection. So I think the 11 point line is REALLY out of whack based on this factor.
So I think it would be optimal, to
1) Play the +11, -115 now. 2) Wait 3) After Okie crushes Bill's Boys, look to grab a -7 -105 somewhere. 4) I have to advocate 3), since the line will then likely move back to 9 or so by gametime. Panic fire on the favorite.
Cannot wait to see the Snyder interview after yet another KSTate loss....it's devastating.....just devastating.....well Bill it's tough when you need to step up from Utep and Montana to top 10 teams.
Well not quite a crushing win eh?
It doesn't matter, FSU is a far superior team to anyone playing right now and deserves to be in the Orange Bowl despite the cries of the coaches and other assorted critics. No doubt if they let the linemakers choose FSU would be number one over Miami and OU. I think the line will be around 10 so 11 isn't much value.
I'm an intermediate blackjack player. I've pretty much learned basic stratedy and the Hi/lo counting system. I would like a recommendation, from an experienced and successful blackjack player, where I should go from here. What books could you recommend me? Software? I'm willing to work hard in order to learn a powerful counting system or a new strategy. Any help that you can offer me would be appreciated.
go to poker and learn that. but having said that what you have is good enough for the most part.. dont spend your time refining your count but spend it finding good games and learning how not to get heat when you play. we have some great bj players here who might give some better advice than me but im right about this.
-- Buy either Professional Blackjack by Stanford Wong or Blackbelt in Blackjack by Arnold Snyder. It's even better to buy both, since there are many things not found in both books. Then, absolutely, buy Donald Schlesinger's Blackjack Attack, the new edition.
-- With the help of the above and a piece of software called Blackjack Risk Manager 2000, define your desirable level of Risk, your Bankroll dedicated to attacking the game and your betting strategy.
-- Longevity is good and paranoia is healthy. But have in mind this : if you pussy out, you won't get the money. Be aggressive! As a pro team leader suggested repeatedly elsewhere, "If you're not getting thrown out, you're not playing aggressively enough".
-- All that's good for attacking multi-deck games as a red or green card counter. But if you are a high stakes player, you better read up on Andersen's Burning the Tables at Las Vegas, which has tons of cover advice, among other goodies. (Buying all the books and software I recommended here, will set you back some $135, money well invested IMHO.)
-- As in Poker, knowing when to "fold them" is equally important as knowing when to enter the fray. Meaning that choosing good games, avoiding bad games, and getting up when a good game turns bad are essential in Blackjack for your wallet's well-being.
Take care.
Thanks for the advice Cyrus. I've been looking everywhere for an answer to that simple question, and it probably took you five minutes to answer my it. Ray Zee recommended that I study poker. I already know the basics of Hold 'em. Can anyone recommend a good book? Are there any other poker games that I should look into? Thanks again Cyrus and Ray Zee for your responses
These are good books, but books tend to get out of date very quickly. The best updated resources are, surprisingly, freely available on the web. Richard Reid's bjmath.com is a treasure trove of valuable articles you should familiarize yourself with. My own site (http://ourworld.compuserve.co.uk/cjamay) also has much material worth looking at.
To beat blackjack with card-counting alone is becoming very difficult, unfortunately reference to the Wong and Schlesinger books increasingly may simply be telling you not to play under most circumstances.
Where can I buy Blackjack Risk Manager 2000?
Shop around Wong's www.bj21.com or Snyder's www.rge21.com or Dalton's www.bjrnet.com. You should find all the titles recommended, plus tons more. Good message boards too (in descending order of popularity).
If you whant to learn Poker : Holdem go to WilsonSoftware.com
and buy Turbo Texas Holdem 89.90 dollar
ore
Tournament Texas holdem for only 59.90 dollar
I dont now the price really but i think it like this
If you whant to learn Poker : Holdem go to WilsonSoftware.com
and buy Turbo Texas Holdem 89.90 dollar
ore
Tournament Texas holdem for only 59.90 dollar
I dont now the price really but i think it like this
Look on the page for books many of them
ConJelCo has all of the items mentioned. http://www.conjelco.com/bj.html
Chuck
BJ Boy, I also would recommend Prof BJ by S. Wong. In addition ,I love reading the Ken Uston Books, Million Dollar BJ, Big Player etc.
Some advice: You can make a lot more money at high stakes BJ than in Poker. However, it won't be long before you are being tapped on the shoulder and being told by a casino rep that you are to good to play.
That is why I think you need to add poker as well. You are never told not to play poker because you are to good, and you don't have to worry about getting barred.
For what it's worth.
There are 2 lines on the bowl games that seem way off to me. I am not as good on college as I am on the pro's so maybe someone can help me out. The first, Washington/Purdue-a pick. Washington seems to me to be clearly the better team. I even think an arguement can be made that they should be number one. The second-Oklahoma/Florida St-Oklahoma plus 11 1/2. Bottom line is Oklahoma is undefeated and 11 1/2 is a lot of points. Am I missing something??? Can someone who is good with the college games help me out? BTW, my shoe in hit last night (the Pats-see previous "I'm Back" thread). Hope you had it. Thanks.--Big Al--
Believe me the UW line really shocked me. I am a UW alum so I know them and their tendencies quite well. There is little doubt in my mind they should win this game straight up. They play very well on grass fields and are a very motivated bunch to run up the score if they can. I think its really just a case of the Pac 10 still receiving very little respect.
As for the other game that shocks me is OSU only a 3 point favorite over Notre Dame. The Irish are a joke to be in this spot as they just waltzed over a cupcake schedule the second half of the year. It still shocks me to think about how Paul Hornung said "at Notre Dame we play more than two teams a year". Who are they Paul? I see Nebraska and a bunch of patsies. The Beavers are far superior and should blow this team away. I think the bias in the public as a whole against the Pac 10 is very real. Oregon looks the same to me. They lose one game and now they are big dogs to an inconsistent Texas team?
As for the Orange Bowl, well its a lot of points true. However FSU is in familiar territory and OU is not. OU has had a lot of late season trouble and its really an indication of something predictable. For all the talent they have, OU is still not an established power, at least not yet. These type of teams start slowing down because they lack the depth of an FSU and as the season wears on they start having trouble keeping up their efforts as players get hurt or tired. FSU always has a lot of talent and this year may be their best team ever, despite their one loss. Look at a guy like Marvin Minnis, one of the best WR in the country. Last year he only caught 21 passes because he had Warrick and Dugans ahead of him. This is the type of talent FSU has ready should someone go down. OU is not at that level yet, but they will get there soon. Another thing is that FSU has to win big if they can. They have to fend off Miami unless the Canes lose the night before. Therefore they will run up the score trying to be unanimous number one. Considering the weapons they have, if they are in a good lead they will just pour it on aided by their devastating pass rush which will just lead to more scores. No doubt OU will have to be on the lead or within a score all game or else FSU will cover because they won't be allowing a backdoor very easily.
Thanks. Maybe I will just stay away from the Oklahoma/FSU game and load up on Washington.
Bet the Pac 10, out of the five teams I would be surprised if they didn't go at least 4-1. Very underrated teams and the league's balanced pro-style offenses make for very tough opponents in bowl games where many of their opponents will be one-dimensional. Lets face it if the Pac 10 had teams like Temple, Rutgers, Missouri, Baylor, and Wake Forest in it the top 3 teams would have buried some opponents and UW and OSU would be considered more highly in the national polls. The worst teams in the Pac 10, WSU and USC would have finished 3rd or 4th in the conferences of the top 3 teams now.
There definitely is a feeling of pride among the Pac 10 teams and a feeling they have been disrespected by the media and think every one of the teams playing in a bowl will be fired up except maybe UCLA, but that is a very talented team that should also win its game.
Can someone please give me an idea? Would a 184-187.5 spread be enough to take a 20-1 shot on? I usually get the lines from my bookie at around 1:30 and usually by tip there are 4-5 games a week with at least a 4 point spread.
Any advice would be appreciated
thanks
GREEN
Don't bet for a middle in this situation. Generally speaking when betting NBA totals the move is correct much more often than it is not. When dealing with total points, there are no real key numbers in basketball, just key "areas". Bottom line is if you want to be totals, just bet them to win bets, not to take 20-1 shots because its unlikely to pan out for you all that much. If you really insist on doing it, I would guess around 5 points would be minimum. Anyways, if you had a 5 point edge because you bet into a weak number, why give any of your edge back in making the middle bet? Just be happy when you get a soft number. If you are out to protect yourself you shouldn't be betting sports because unless you are moving tons of money into a multitude of outs, trying to play middles as a strategy is usually a losing game.
If the line moves -which way to you recommend betting(when you say the line moving is right).Do you bet the team getting more points or the team who has to give more.
Also, is there any bias to the "under" given that the typical unsophisticated sports betting customer likes to bet "over" because it's more exciting to root for baskets?
So really there are 2 questions here....1) Does such a bias exist? and 2) Do bookies deliberately move the line up a bit to compensate for this?
Darryl Parsons
Wow, professor I should call myself!
Ok, first bit of advice is simple and will put you ahead of thousands of stiffs out there. Ready for this one? Never bet a game just because the line moved! You would be amazed at how people trap themselves in this. The only way you should work line moves is this. Say you have looked over the board for next weekend's games. You like many sides, but only a few have numbers you like. About the half the games you will like a couple of factors on each game but think the line is unfairly biased or gives you concerns. This happens a ton in football because you will get a team like Tennessee you feel pretty certain to win, but everyone knows the Titans are trash as favorites as they usually do enough to win, but not to cover. You like them this week but once again don't like laying wood. So you say well the Titans are 4 if they go to 3 I bet them. In reality NFL teams rarely move like this so you probably won't get action, but NCAA often sees moves and you will hit your number maybe a quarter of the time. Important to have the discipline not to give in at game time when the number doesn't come your way to lay off and not bet it anyways. Otherwise don't look at the board on Saturday and see that 3 games have changed alot and bet because of the moves. That is usually silly. There are many people out there that try to follow moves of smart money, but I tell everyone to forget it. These days there are probably 10 touts that move the line with a top play just as much as actually informed big money. So go back to handicapping and forget the effects of line moves while still being careful not to overdo it and bet your team after the number has been moved 3 or 4 times against you and now you are laying too much extra or not getting enough.
Second, there is no real discernible total bias. I have seen a lot of stats on this and they are all within a 51-49 split. There is the perception that games are bet over a little more for prime time, but I think an equal effect is the players tend to respond and score a tiny bit more too in these games on average. I will say that most of the time the over gets more action from the amateurs, but the under gets a lot of balance from the smarter money, but thats a generalization. The public basically bets what they think of the team from the past two games. If a team has been shut down over two games the bandwagon can just as easily form with the public betting the under and the savvy bettor expecting a turnaround and taking the over. The lines are adjusted some, but not biased for one particular side.
1) Initially, avoid trying to middle. 2) For each game, take the market average of "good" numbers from 5 or so reputable sources like Bettors World on the net.
3) If given a 1 point differential from your bad bookie, you have a tiny edge.... no bet or bet 1 unit.
4) At 1.5 point differenital bet 2units
5) At 2.0 point differential 3 units.....
You get the idea.
Re: Middles. Only bet if getting at least the 1 pt differential from market each way. But note any middle of 2 points or more has + expectation.
Run your lottery pools easily and efficiently. http://www.w3webb.com/lotto
I think Miami has the best defense in the AFC. They are especially tough at home. If they have home field advantage throughout the playoffs, I think they will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Defense wins championships. Take Miami and give the 2 1/2 points this Sunday. This is Big Al's show in of the week.
whoops...make that shoe in. Hope I didnt curse it!!!!
I am going out to Miami tomorrow and have tickets for this game. I am a pretty big Bucs fan, but now that you have cursed my team maybe I will sell them! Anyone need two seats for the game????
All I have to say is aren't you due for a loss? :)
lol...you are right, I am due for a loss. Thanks for your outstanding comments regarding the college bowl games I thought were out of line. I have a follow up-you noted that Oklahoma cant keep up its best effort as the season wears on because players get hurt and/or tired. The have a lack of depth where as Florida is way more deep. With the time off between their last game and the one against FSU, can Oklahoma heal up enough to hang tough with FSU? I think your analysis is right on overall and I am going to stay out of that one. I happen to be a Pac-10 fan (I went to USC) and I agree that that conference is underrated. I think I will take your suggestion and play most if not all Pac 10 teams in their bowl games.
Wildbill:
I also want to personally apologize to you for some comments I may have directed your way earlier this year about people being full of advice, etc., A lot of comments I see here are people spouting off about things, thinking they are know it alls and they really dont know jack. As I have read your analysis and comments regarding games/plays etc., I have found them to be very well thought out, accurate, and extremely insightful. I appreciate it.
you say that defense wins championships - what about the team that Miami's playing?
I am finally dry after such a nice day in Miami! Damn and they call this "dry season" here. Oh well, glad Al picked the right game to be wrong on. I came 2,400 miles, I would have been so disappointed with a loss...
This one hurt, Big Al.
I'm still with you. Be sure to post your pick this week again if you have one.
I was 0-5 for the weekend. Ouch.
Tell me about it-I am still on tilt. Fiedler absolutely handed this game to the Bucs. That was one of the worst performances by a QB I have seen in a long time. Sorry, defense did its job, did not plan on Fiedler giving the Bucs an early X-MAs present. Lets get em this week...
I've noticed that first half over/under lines for NBA games are very often quoted at exactly half of the over/under line for the full game. So if the point total is, say, 192 for the full game, it will be offered at 96 for the first half (typically).
My intuition tells me that less than half the total points should be scored in the first half for 2 reasons...
1) Some games go into overtime, and the overtime points count in the full game total but not the half game total.
2) The last minute of play in the game frequently includes many time-outs and intentional fouls which increase the point count for the second half versus the first.
Does this mean that the bookies are wrong to quote the totals at exactly half, or am I missing something?
Darryl Parsons
I found this on a bulletin board and decided to try it. A little while back, I was browsing through newsgroups, just like you are now, and came across an article similar to this that said you could make thousands of dollars within weeks with only an initial investment of $6.00! So I thought, "Yeah right, this must be a scam", but like most of us, I was curious, so I kept reading. Anyway, it said that you send $1.00 to each of the 6 names and address stated in the article. You then place your own name and address in the bottom of the list at #6, and post the article in at least 200 newsgroups. (There are thousands) No catch, that was it. So after thinking it over, and talking to a few people first, I thought about trying it. I figured: "what have I got to lose except 6 stamps and $6.00, right?" Then I invested the measly $6.00. Well GUESS WHAT!?... within 7 days, I started getting money in the mail! I was shocked! I figured it would end soon, but the money just kept coming in. In my first week, I made about $25.00. By the end of the second week I had made a total of over $1,000.00! In the third week I had over $10,000.00 and it's still growing. This is now my fourth week and I have made a total of just over $42,000.00 and it's still coming in rapidly. It's certainly worth $6.00, and 6 stamps, I have spent more than that on the lottery!! Let me tell you how this works and most importantly, WHY it works... Also, make sure you print a copy of this article NOW, so you can get the information off of it as you need it. I promise you that if you follow the directions exactly, that you will start making more money than you thought possible by doing something so easy! Suggestion: Read this entire message carefully! (print it out or download it.) Follow the simple directions and watch the money come in! It's easy. It's legal. And, your investment is only $6.00 (Plus postage) IMPORTANT: This is not a rip-off; it is not indecent; it is not illegal; and it is 99% no risk - it really works! If all of the followinginstructions are adhered to, you will receive extraordinary dividends. PLEASE NOTE: Please follow these directions EXACTLY, and $50,000 or more can be yours in 20 to 60 days. This program remains successful because of the honesty and integrity of the participants. Please continue its success by carefully adhering to the instructions. You will now become part of the Mail Order business. In this business your product is not solid and tangible, it's a service. You are in the business of developing Mailing Lists. Many large corporations are happy to pay big bucks for quality lists. However, the money made from the mailing lists is secondary to the income which is made from people like you and me asking to be included in that list.Here are the 4 easy steps to success: STEP 1: Get 6 separate pieces of paper and write the following on each piece of paper "PLEASE PUT ME ON YOUR MAILING LIST." Now get 6 US $1.00 bills and place ONE inside EACH of the 6 pieces of paper so the bill will not be seen through the envelope (to prevent (thievery). Next, place one paper in each of the 6 envelopes and seal them. You should now have 6 sealed envelopes, each with a piece of paper stating the above phrase, your name and address, and a $1.00 bill. What you are doing is creating a service. THIS IS ABSOLUTELY LEGAL! You are requesting a legitimate service and you are paying for it! Like most of us I was a little skeptical and a little worried about the legal aspects of it all. So I checked it out with the U.S. Post Office (1-800-725-2161) and they confirmed that it is indeed legal. Mail the 6 envelopes to the following addresses: #1) JW Maher, 60 North Nimitz Hwy, #1902, Honolulu, HI 96817 #2) Mira Wubbens, 11503-A Walnut Ridge, Austin, TX 78753. #3)Bryce Turcotte, 501 3rd Ave., Laurel, MT 59044 #4) Mike Martinez, 5510 Timbercreek Place Dr. #2909, Houston, TX 77084 #5) lisa Zaltz 5001 11th Avenue, brooklyn, ny 11219 #6) Carlos Rodriguez, P.O. Box 2821, Littleton, CO. 80161-2821 2: Now take the #1 name off the list that you see above, move the other names up (6 becomes 5, 5 becomes 4, etc...) and add YOUR Name as number 6 on the list. STEP 3: Change anything you need to, but try to keep this article as close to original as possible. Now, post your amended article to at least 200 newsgroups, forums or discussion boards. (I think there are close to 24,000 groups and close to 80,000 forums) All you need is 200, but remember, the more you post, the more money you make! You won't get very much unless you post like crazy. :) This is perfectly legal! If you have any doubts, refer to Title 18 Sec. 1302 & 1341 of the Postal lottery laws.Keep a copy of these steps for yourself and, whenever you need money, you can use it again, and again. PLEASE REMEMBER that this program remains successful because of the honesty and integrity of the participants and by their carefully adhering to the directions. Look at it this way. If you are of integrity, the program will continue and the money that so many others have received will come your way. NOTE: You may want to retain every name and address sent to you, either on a computer or hard copy and keep the notes people send you. This VERIFIES that you are truly providing a service. (Also, it might be a good idea to wrap the $1 bill in dark paper to reduce the risk of mail theft.) So, as each post is downloaded and the directions carefully followed, six members will be reimbursed for their participation as a List Developer with one dollar each. Your name will move up the list geometrically so that when your name reaches the #1 position you will be receiving thousands of dollars in CASH!!! What an opportunity for only $6.00 ($1.00 for each of the first six people listed above) Send it now, add your own name to the list and you're in business! ---DIRECTIONS ----- FOR HOW TO POST TO NEWSGROUPS------------ Step 1) You do not need to re-type this entire letter to do your own posting. Simply put your cursor at the beginning of this letter and drag your cursor to the bottom of this document, and select 'copy' from the edit menu. This will copy the entire letter into the computer's memory. Step 2) Open a blank 'notepad' file and place your cursor at the top of the blank page. From the 'edit' menu select 'paste'. This will paste a copy of the letter into notepad so that you can add your name to the list. Step 3) Save your new notepad file as a .txt file. If you want to do your postings in different settings, you'll always have this file to go back to. Step 4) Use Netscape or Internet explorer and try searching for various newsgroups (on-line forums, message boards, chat sites, discussions.) Step 5) Visit these message boards and post this article as a new message by highlighting the text of this letter and selecting paste from the edit menu. Fill in the Subject, this will be the header that everyone sees as they scroll through the list of postings in a particular group, click the post message button. You're done with your first one! Congratulations...THAT'S IT! All you have to do is jump to different newsgroups and post away, after you get the hang of it, it will take about 30 seconds for each newsgroup! **REMEMBER, THE MORE NEWSGROUPS YOU POST IN, THE MORE MONEY YOU WILL MAKE! BUT : YOU HAVE TO POST A MINIMUM OF 200** That's it! You will begin receiving money from around the world within days! You may eventually want to rent a P.O.Box due to the large amount of mail you will receive. If you wish to stay anonymous, you can invent a name to use, as long as the postman will deliver it. **JUST MAKE SURE ALL THE ADDRESSES ARE CORRECT.** Now, each of the 5 persons who just sent me $1.00 make the MINIMUM 200 postings, each with my name at #5 and only 5 persons respond to each of the original 5, that is another $25.00 for me, now those 25 each make 200 MINIMUM posts with my name at #4 and only 5 replieseach, I will bring in an additional $125.00! Now, those 125 persons turn around and post the MINIMUM 200 with my name at #3 and onlyreceive 5 replies each, I will make an additional $625.00! OK, now here is the fun part, each of those 625 persons post a MINIMUM 200 letters with my name at #2 and they each only receive 5 replies, that just made me $3,125.00!!! Those 3,125 persons will all deliver this message to 200 newsgroups with my name at #1 and if still 5 persons per 200 newsgroups react I will receive $15,625,00! With an original investment of only $6.00! AMAZING! When your name is no longer on the list, you just take the latest posting in the newsgroups, and send out another $6.00 to names on the list, putting your name at number 6 again. And start posting again. The thing to remember is: do you realize that thousands of people all over the world are joining the internet and reading these articles everyday?, JUST LIKE YOU are now!! So, can you afford $6.00 and see if it really works?? I think so... People have said, "what if the plan is played out and no one sends you the money? So what! What are the chances of that happening when there are tons of new honest users and new honest people who are joining the internet and newsgroups everyday and are willing to give it a try? Estimates are at 20,000 to 50,000 new users, every day, with thousands of those joining the actual internet. Remember, honesty and integrity will make this work... just do it!
what are you? made of money? that is a meal, mofo.
i gamble for a living. i dont have that kind of money just lying around waiting to be thrown into an illegal pyramid scheme.
by the way did you know one of these things destroyed down a developing economy a few years back? i forget which one but i think it is a small country in the middle east or indian subcontinent.
scott
Bust this crap!
Mason and David, this post has no place on your forum. Please try to prevent this crap from appearing in the future.
but what about my brilliant retort? we wouldn't want that deleted. maybe we should allow this post so mine can also stay.
scott
Your retort was fine, but you should not have to make it in the first place.
Yea!.. the Lord hath revealed unto me that if thou willist send me your cashout check from PP(sign it first) then ye shall be blessed with an abundace of group 1 hands.The turn and river cards will favor yee saith the Lord.So please trust in the Lord, not in S&M, and send me your money!!!!
This is not a service it is simply a minor twist on the old chain-letter.
CHASTISEMENT CLUB
A. S. Kick,------------------ 13 Assel Blvd., ---------------------- Phartz, Mex.
I. Kickum,------------------- " "
Will Kickum,--------- ------- " "
Kickum,--------------------- Rectum Drive,---------------------- " "
E. Normus Foote,----------- " "
This chain was started for the purpose of bringing proper punishment to those who started or have had anything to do with carrying on the damn chain letter nuisance.
Within three days find five of those pests (and that should not be hard to do) and give each of them a couple of good swift kicks in the ass as a friendly warning.
NOW WONT THIS BE FUN?
Next, make five copies of this letter and hand them out to five of your most healthy, robust and big-footed friends whom you think would enjoy a little kicking exercise.
If this chain is not broken those who started the damn chain letter nuisance, as well as those who have carried it on, about 50,525,000 of them, will have sore asses (or will be sore-ass to be about) within the next few days.
PS: This letter should NOT be handed to barefoot boys or one-leg persons.
Dated May 19, 1935. Found in old police files of the CSX railroad (formerly the ACL railroad).
Does anyone know how I can get information about the starting goaltenders for an NHL game? It seems the previews on the sports websites don't give this info. and in some cases it makes a huge difference in handicapping the game (like last night, for example, when Belfour didn't start for Dallas. If I had known that I would have saved some money)
Thanks,
Darryl Parsons
I think the main difficulty in finding out this information is the fact that most coaches don't announce this type of thing.
However, you can check out this link http://www.rotonews.com/hockey/news.cfm . They scan all the sports sections and if it's been announced who is starting, they'll list it. They did have Turco starting last night, btw.
best bet is to check the local papers on the web like the Toronto paper often has a blurb on who is starting
A common lament heard in sportsbooks is, "We have 'listed pitchers', why not 'listed goalies'?"
The answer, of course, is because we don't have 3 or 4 "off-pitchers" everyday, and we certainly would in hockey.
But it would kill me when Game One of a playoff series was about to start, and somebody would come into the book to bet the game, and ask, "Who are the starting goalies? Did that come over the wire yet?"
My God, man, who do you THINK is starting? Do you think Colorado is gonna rest Patty Roy tonight? You think CuJo needs a breather??
Bobby
Obviously you have never heard of the Detroit Red Wings. They have had 3 or 4 legitimate controversies concerning playoff netminding over the last decade or so.
I do. The fact is that I can generally predict when a backup will go in a game. I got caught off guard with Turco on Thursday night too as that one really was unexpected playing a upper echelon team on the road. Generally though when a backup starts you won't be in such a bad spot. Almost exclusively its one of the worst 7 or 8 teams in the league they are playing. The backup is rested well and very focused on having a solid game since he probably won't work again for at least a week. He has only this one time to shine and playing an inferior team more often than not he gets it done. If you look at a lot of teams in recent years you will see the backup has equal or better numbers than the starter. I remember one year back in the 1994 Kay Whitmore was with Vancouver and had a 1.94GAA and 13-4 record on a .500 team. Fans were clamoring for him to be the starter over Kirk McLean who a year earlier was a Vezina candidate. McLean went down 3-1 in the first round of the playoffs and the calls were getting louder. All he did after that is win the series and then they dominated the next two rounds and he lost one game in each and then they came one game short of a Stanley Cup. The next season Whitmore faced the same second string and went 5-10 I think it was with a GAA over 4. Mind you back then 2.4 was a pretty good GAA compared to the under 2 you see now. In all it just goes to show that really I would worry less about who is your goalie than most people do. On those games where you get "surprised" you still might win the bet. In any case these surprises tend to go you way as often as they go against you since its still pretty rare to see the inferior man in there against a decent or good team.
Could someone point me to a source for locating single zero wheels in the U.S.
Cheers / Richard Whitehouse / www.thegoodgamblingguide.co.uk
unless you feel you can clock the wheel you are better off with the double zero ones so you wont have to spend as much time standing there, before you go broke playing.
what a fantasticly great answer. i love it!
Typical Zee humor quick to the point.
rams vikes over over over true median 83?
gl just mho
I think Abdul wrote in one of his post that it's good to go against must win team,my experience confirms that. RAMS lost three straight games and score only three points last week go against MIN best team and four straight winner, MIN +3.5 is my play.
x
The rams covered the spread, so he didn't win.
This theory generally doesn't work much until week 16 and especially week 17. Teams often have games called "must win" and in fact they really are not. You are kidding to believe all this because the Rams could have lost the game and still won the last two and been in the playoffs. Same crap is being said about Tampa being in a must win game this week when it seems pretty likely they will be in the playoffs whether they win or not this week. The moral is be sure to do your homework first before calling a game a must win! Since so many teams are in the playoffs already or almost assured of getting there I would think this angle is not coming up much this year. Some years you have 7 or 8 games to work with, but this year might be more like 4 or 5.
A new friend of mine seems to be a professional video poker player, and wants to teach me how to do it.
Obviously, I'm taking it with a grain of salt, not risking a large portion of my bankroll, and not depending on it for income.
Just wondering if anyone has any experience with *serious* video poker. Any comments, cautions, warnings, encouragement?
B$
It doesn't really take very long to learn to play a winning game -- an hour or two for some games, a few days to a week to play the most difficult games at an expert level. To win the big money does require a big bankroll but you will always be playing with a +EV.
Be prepared for long, boring hours. Also, be aware that you must expect to lose almost every day; a bunch of losses followed by a big win when you hit the royal.
It never hurts to broaden your horizons.
Slick,
Don't bother is my advice. I know you are out in AC where there are almost no positive EV games there. There are some in Vegas, but almost all of the quarter variety. At quarters, you are lucky to get about $15/hour expectation playing the best games if you play them extremely fast and accurately. Also they are always on the most complicated games. The games aren't necessary that complicated, the problem is the strategy for them is complicated. The correct strategy is not always that evident and if you make more than a mistake or two an hour you can be into losing EV. Almost all so called VP pros are really just seniors that love to play the machines and like the fact they can pick up a few bucks. The few people making decent money at it are team organizers that pay people to play for them when they find an advantageous progressive game. These people make 10/hour or less to play and get a small piece of the winnings, really nothing special. VP is just like BJ in that in reality it is beatable in situations and that adds to its allure. The truth is though that its not very lucrative and mostly a waste of time unless you are doing nothing else profitable these days.
Terry & wildbill,
Thanks for your replies. Basically, you both confirmed what I already suspected... I can make a few bucks, but its not worth putting a whole lot of time and effort into it. But it is good to hear it from someone else, because my assessment was just a guess anyway.
I'm still playing poker, and its been quite profitable, but if I learn VP, maybe even waiting for a table can become profitable :)
B$
btw-I knew I could count on you wildbill, thanks again
B$
No problem. Put quite simply just about every "pro" at VP is a bit older than you to say the least...I don't think you are a senior yet are you?
Do any of you know of a website that posts Las Vegas lines? I'm specifically interested in College Bowl games. I'm not looking for a book, just a line so that I can make friendly wagers with some coworkers. Thanks for any input.
Worm
www.vegasinsider.com
It takes a bit of navigating, but what you are looking for is there.
Good Luck
Howard
Try this, they will even e-mail the odds everyday!
http://www.americasline.com/
sportsfaxnews.com is good too.
It posts yesterday's closing lines and movements along with the final score.
this fits the bill: http://www.donbest.com/scripts/newdbs/free-odds.asp
niatross
I like http://www.scoresandodds.com
Anybody have an idea what the line will be on the Jets/Lions game. I assume it has not been posted yet because there is some question about Testaverde playing. This will be the Lions third road game in a row, thats always a killer. Also, the Jets will be pissed and want to redeem themselves after being embarrased by the Raiders on national TV. Unless the line is way out of whack, this is Big Al's shoe in of the week. I believe the QB usually gets too much credit when a team wins and too much blame when they lose. Although, after seeing Fiedler single handedly give the game to the Bucs Sunday and blow my shoe in for last week (I am still on tilt about that game/his performance) I am starting to re-think this. Even if Testaverde doesnt play, I still like the Jets based on the above factors I mentioned.
I have no idea what the line will be (I'll guess 6.5-7.5).
Big Al, do you like the Dolphins again this week giving 3 to the Colts?
Also, what do you think of the Rams Monday night to beat the Bucs? I know your shoe-ins are always home teams, but the Bucs are STILL overrated by bettors.
I do like the Dolphins again this week-although the "Fiedler Factor" has me a bit worried. I dont know why, but I am still steaming about that game. Probably because I lost a good size chunk of change on it. Miami should have won that game 13-3. I know thats football, but Fiedler was beyond awful in that game.
I agree, the Bucs are overrated. Everyone is going by what they did LAST YEAR. I like the Rams in that game also.
I also like Pittsburg plus one this Saturday against the Redskins.
.
I like it...offical shoe in is take Jets and give the points.
I could use one!!
What goes up must come down! I took the Lions in this game wondering what the linemakers were thinking making them such big dogs to a mediocre team with almost a similar record. I think a lot of it has to do with the Jets just being a more public team with a couple of high profile wins, but oh well. I didn't even see this one as the Shoe-in until after the games went so maybe its lucky Big Al didn't convince me out of it. As for the dime, hey I will throw you a quarter...don't ever say I didn't do anything for my fellow posters :)
I heard over the radio some time ago is this true??
She has recently affirmed her statement not to run for President in 2004. While it's difficult to believe anything a politician says, I think she'd have a lot of difficulty taking that one back. I'd need about 100-1.
I agree with your assessment. No matter how you look at it, I think she is un-electable. She has too many men that hate her and the Dems already have the women vote pretty strongly behind them. As much as we all might hate the prospect, it seems highly unlikely we will see anything but a rematch with Gore who so strongly drew the party together during his court battles. He probably will smartly stay off on the sidelines and gather up some money.
As for the odds, I can't remember where I saw them, but it was an offshore book. I am not sure about these being exact, they are my recollection and were before Bush had won the Supreme Court decision so I would guess his odds have gone down since and Gore's went up a bit:
Bush 5-2 Gore 3-1 H. Clinton 5-1 McCain 8-1 Gephardt 12-1 Bradley 12-1 Buchanan 15-1 Cheney 30-1 Forbes 30-1 Powell 30-1 Nader 50-1 Field 9-1
If I had to pick now, and lets face it you are crazy to bet something 4 years off, I would say Bush has to be the big favorite being the incumbent and the fact that I don't see probably the two toughest opponents running in McCain and Clinton. I think Gore hurt himself with his court battles despite his last minute face saving speech and since he will most likely be out of a major office between now and then that won't help him rally up support. Gore not even winning TN makes me think he won't be able to win another office.
My personal opinion (you losers are getting paid millions to play basketball, deal with it) aside, anyone have insights on how to capitalize on this? What happened with the line throughout the soap opera? Was it taken off the books?
JG
I live in Denver. I wanted to get down so badly on last nights game but had to take my kid to the zoo and by the time I got home the game had already started. Issel has definatley made LaFrentz his whipping boy and apparently a lot of the players dont like it. Their have been some player rumblings since the beginning of the season-guys whining about not getting enough playing time and that Issel is too rough on them. Although they said all the right things yesterday, this is a team in disarray. Since they started out playing well at the Can, you may find some value in their home games (betting against them). This is a team that is about to self-destruct. If you saw Issel's face and some of the palyers faces at the end of the game, you can tell all is not well. Even the owner, who does not live here, flew in for last nights game to check the situation out. He made it clear before the season started that Issel had to win this year or he is out as coach and/or president. That put extra pressure on Issel and he has not handled it well. Look for this team to implode and Issel to possibly have a stroke or be gone within the next month or two.
I just talked to a friend of mine who works at the Pepsi Center. He says a couple of the Nuggets players showed up for the practice that was scheduled (the one they were boycotting) and drove around the building making sure no players showed up for the practice. In addition to their protest of Issel's treatment of LaFrentz, they were pissed at Issel for scheduling the practice after their overtime loss to the Celtics at Boston the night before. The plane home was late in arriving and they complained they were too tired and should not have to practice. Issel insisted on the practice and this also led to their boycott. But these guys arent too tired to get up and drive around the Pepsi Center to make sure no one violates their boycott. What a bunch of sh*theads. I am a Nuggets fan but this is the last straw. I hope these guys go down the crapper, and based on actions and attitudes like this, they surely will.
Lafrentz goes from goat to hero winning beating a top team with his tough 3 in the last minute with a defender in his face. I know a whole lot of people talking to me about this one and saying this was an easy one tonight. As I have often said, when every one is on one side look out. I took the Nuggets with the overly generous points against the highly underachieving Spurs and won it easy. Personally I thought the whole thing was overblown. Even if guys aren't playing for a coach as people were quick to say here doesn't mean they won't play hard. Players that have really quit...now thats what to look out for. They were tired and showed it against the Heat, but they would have played that way without all this hoopla and losing by 11 against a decent team isn't a sign of a dead team. Personally I think you might still see some value with this team if people will still overdo this angle. Besides if they really "quit" on the coach the coach would have been gone by now. Once again, don't believe the hype when the media jumps on something.
This is a seriously flawed club with many problems. I think when they are at the Can they will not do well. I think it was almost a relief for them to get out of toen and away from the local media. I think they will seriouslt tank once they get back to Denver.
I don't know if I would go that far. This was never really a top team and just how much were people expecting from them? Being on the road probably helps a little, but still they are too good to say they are going to have any more problems than you might normally expect. I really can't see how the problems could be that bad if they really don't want to play for the coach. If it was that big a problem then Issel would be gone. No owner would mess around with this type of problem. It would be too serious if there was real mutiny to even entertain the thought of keeping the coach around. The fact that he is still there tells me the concerns are probably getting blown out of proportion.
I've seen lines for all of the recent Nuggets games:
12/12 vs MIA -1 85-96 12/10 @ BOS +6.5 102-104 12/9 @ NY +7.5 88-96 12/7 @ ORL +8 93-103 12/6 @ MIA +6.5 78-95 12/4 vs PHI +3 105-98 12/2 vs SEA pk 103-92
So they're 3-4 ATS this month, and 2 of the games where they failed to cover were very close.
-Sean
So there was value last night. Any idea what it opened at? I'm a little surprised as this is the kind of thing that usually jacks a line like crazy or maybe it did.
JG
Line opened DEN -1 closed MIA -1.
Say that I wanted to do some number crunching with the tables that can be found on cyberodds.com or covers.com. Is there an easy way to import the tables into a spreadsheet? Cutting and pasting doesn't seem to work because the spacing gets screwed up.
While I'm thinking of it, I would appreciate being directed to any other sites that have historical line data for any major sport.
-Sean
If you can export from those websites into a comma- or tab-delimited form, then you can import back into your spreadsheet. Cut and paste isn't going to cut it ;-)
I usually write my own programs for this. I've written a LISP program that will input copy-and-pasted web page tables (with staircased linebreaks) and output CDF (comma delimited format.) For confidence in the parsing it's better to start with the raw HTML itself and write a custom program to parse it; I use Perl for these programs.
I don't use the following Perl program, but you might find it helpful, though you'll still have to dirty your hands with Perl to get the result you want:
http://search.cpan.org/search?module=HTML::TableExtract
Another approach you might try is to use the Lynx web browser (available for Unix and Linux, at least), have it print to file in plain text format, and then you might be able to import into your database in space delimited format if there are no spaces in the data itself. (You might be able to use a text processor to replace the spaces in the data with underscores, e.g., find and replace all "New York Jets" with "New_York_Jets".)
Finally, a good spreadsheet like Excel sometimes has good data parsing import features, so you might take a look at the table HTML code and a look at what your spreadsheet can do, and maybe you can figure out a mapping. For information on HTML tables, go to any search engine and type "HTML primer" and find a section on tables.
-Abdul
Abdul Jalib probably forgets more stuff every day about computer programming than I'll ever know - but here's two cents: I learned by driving the other way first! Meaning that I converted my Excel tables to HTML, posted them up on a trial post, took it down, worked on the HTML to amend the tables, trying and re-trying, learning and fumbling in the process, until I could get a decent table up on the web. This has helped me because I could then ViewSource a web page containing tables and take it from there.
But, I guess a special program is still needed to import as-is from the web, as Abdul advises.
IND OVER 187 **
MIL +9.5 **
SEA UNDER 190 *
*** Big Bet
** Regular Bet
* Small Bet
judging from your past picks,should we pick the oppostie?lol -just kidding -good luck and I hope you win
Montana against Georgia Southern, any imput? Are online bookies legit? Any recommendations? Thank you.
I don't think its ever a good idea to bet for the home team. Too many emotions. You Griz fans can be a little maniacle.
I was looking to bet the other way. I agree most Griz fans think the team can walk on water.
Assume you are a perfect player...and can vary your bets 1-8 ($25-$200),without heat in Atlantic City (let's say Taj Mahal, on your breaks from the poker table). It seems at the Taj, you cannot enter a $25 minimum table in mid shoe, so if you play, you will have to play from the top. From what it looks, they penetrate about 6 decks (at least thats what I saw), up to 3 splits, and no surrender (unless I'm wrong) - and let's assume 50 hands an hour
Given these scenarios - if you were a perfect player, what is your EV per hour?
What do you mean "perfect player"? You have to state your advantage, according to the count you use, the number of indices, etc.
But wait! Did you say "1-8", play-all?!
Forget about it. It's not worth your time, I can assure you without running it. It will probably put you out, as a matter of fact. If you don't spread at least 1-20 playing-all against the AC monsters, you should go back to the poker table.
that's a good enough answer for me. thanks.
I run your game through Wong's Blackjack Count Analyzer, under the following rules & conditions: 8d, S17, DOA, DAS, NS, NRSA, RSP=3, 75% pen. The system is HiLo, play-all, TC by truncating, indices from -5 to +10. The betting strategy is simple: bet 1 unit when in neutral or negative EV territory and bet 8 units otherwise. 1 unit equals $25.
After 15 million rounds, these are the stats:
You have a 0.45% edge (with a Standard Error of plus or minus 0.04%).
Your win per 100 rounds dealt is $21, with a huge Standard Deviation of plus or minus $864 for every 100 rounds. With about 99% probability you will be anywhere within +$2,613 and -$2,571 after every 100 rounds. This places the game very low in the Desirability Index measurement, which gauges expected gain vs expected fluctuations of bankroll. (You have also stated that the game moves at a pace of about 50 rounds per hour, so your hourly dollar winnings are half the above, approximately.) This game will most likely put you out.
If you choose to play approximately 200 rounds each time you attack this game (i.e. if every 200 rounds constitute 1 trip to the Blackjack tables), you will be ahead by $1000 or more after about 18% of your trips, and you will be behind $1000 or more after about 16% of your trips. This gives an idea of 'trip fluctuation'.
I would have also given the results you'd get if Wonging (i.e. betting only when the count is good) but you stated No Midshoe Entry so I won't depress you any further.
depression? what the heck are you talking abuot!
+0.45% is huge for me!
I don't like it you're not depressed! So I run another 20m rounds with flat betting $200 but only in rounds where the HiLo TC is +1 and above. Your expectation doubles to +0.93%. You're now earning more than $45 per 100 rounds watched. (The Std Deviation also increases but the attractiveness of the game is way better. Wonging is the way to go.)
Expect to make about $25 per hour in this crappy game!
I recall reading a rough guideline to spread requirements many years ago (Arnold Snyder).
Given a 3/4 penetration and typical rules you must spread at least two times the number of decks in play--8 deck shoe = 16 to 1 spread.
But I would guess Cyrus is also right here.
SAN OVER 187.5 **
Hi all,
Couple of years ago I was playing Craps at Binions and struck up a conversation with a fellow player. This guy told me about a man who had taken Binions for 14 million so in Craps but had lost it all back except for 1 million or so. I chalked this up to an interesting but not truthful story. Not much later I read a newspaper story about a man who did just this. I forget his name. Anyone know this story? What interests me is how did this guy play?
Barry
Probably the person is Nick the Greek. He made most of his money playing poker actually and was known for a run where he busted all the top players in Vegas in heads up play. He ran it up to $41 million and then lost it all over the course of a couple years. There are lots of articles about him and interviews with him, just look into the poker magazines for the story. As for how he plays craps, there is also a story on that. Sounds like he just presses a lot and tries to make hay when the dice are hot and backs off when the dice are cold. He has "backers" who are willing to bankroll him just to watch him play and give him a cut of any winnings he might have, much like a poker player would get backed.
I think just about everything wildbill said is right, except for the name. It's not Nick The Greek. It's Archie Karras.If you want to read more about him, just go to google.com.
Good Luck
Howard
Damn you are right Howard...Nick the Greek was a legend many years back. Sorry for the confusion
DET + 2.5 **
TOR + 4.5 **
How Nfl teams did in their last home stadium?I know WAS,CIN and SEA won,today PIT play last game there.
Seattle lost...but that was a playoff game. Really though I don't think this is much of an angle to look into, too many different situations to deal with.
UTA - 3 **
NJ - 2.5 **
NJ OVER 180 **
While waiting for hold'em table I often sit down to play one of those thoroughbred horseracing simulation games, because its slow and therefore doesnt cost much. Till now Ive always figured this game cant be beat, But lately ive been applying some strategies (only playing what I believe are favorable slates of odds, and varying amounts bet) and been winning.
My question is this: Can this game be beat? or have I just been getting lucky? How exactly does the machine generate its profit. Is every bet a loser in the long run or could there really be some +ev strategy here??
Canuck
Its like any slot machine, a randomly generated number determines the winner, but it is based on the odds offered so the 2-1 horse will win the race a lot more than the 100-1 horse. I have played these things for fun myself a few times right outside the Stardust sports book. I basically pumped in 5 bucks in quarters and tried to pick up a win of 5 or 10 quarters which I put in the Double Down Stud machine right next to it. Actually I have been quite successful as I don't think I have ever lost on that horse racing game, but the DDS machine always gets the money back for the house. As for strategy, I would just be kidding myself if I thought there was some long term winning strategy there. I just basically loaded up on mostly lower odds horses. After a few losses, I would bet a little more on the favorite and try to get even doing that. When I was even, then I would bet a 6-1 or a 9-1 horse something like that until one hit. Then I would be on the verge of my 5 quarter win and quit. Yeah charming game isn't it?
Thanks Bill,
What seems different about the horse racing games is that the average payout per horse seems to vary considerably each race, which makes me think some races may be better for the player than others. But if every race, if played a million times is a losing proposition, then clearly it cant be beat.
My strategy works something like this: when there are two clear favorites (2-1, 3-1 or 4-1) and the remaining four horses all offer about 10-1 or more I will play play a wheel keying on the two favorites, or if the odds seem particularly good, play all quinellas. I have hit some big returns of 100-300 coins that make it possible to play for quite a while, looking for good odds.
The other night I had two bets on a 150-1 quinella, Very sweet. I think I am up lifetime, but have probably only played <50 hours which isnt much.
I will be very selective, playing only 1/3 races or so and sometimes not playing 5 or 6 races in a row if the odds seem poor, which very few players seem to do. Poor odds in this case means four or five horses paying less than 6-1.
It is an enjoyable game to kill time waiting for a holdem table, and perhaps it's just wishful thinking that it could be profitable long run.
Canuck
Not something everyone can get down on, but I have to like my chances here. I play with Olympic Sports and they offer tons of props on every game. For Broncos/Chiefs they have an over/under on longest made FG of the day and its set at 43.5 yards with the odds of -115 for either side.
Looking at the weather report tonight for tomorrow: Kansas City High 29 Low 24, Winds 15-25 with gusts to 35. Tonight the wind chill is -19. During the day you figure its still below 0 wind chill. The Chiefs kicker, Todd Peterson, has a long of 42 and Jason Elam has been hampered by a back problem and that surely can't be good for such a cold day. Add the wind and this has got to be a kicker's nightmare. Even if they can kick it straight in sub freezing temperatures think about that new ball that is put in for every kick probably being half frozen and how physics dictate the ball will have a tough time carrying. All in all this one to me seems like its 95% likely to be an under. Stranger things have happened, but I doubt they even try to attempt a kick this long unless its a the end of the half or the game. Since I won't steal Big Al's copyright, I won't call it a shoe in of the week...
$$$
hey i read your post, checked the weather, bet game under cashed a nice bet...thnx happy holidays
Well to tell you the truth, I missed one point of detail. I didn't look at the direction of the wind. Actually a team might have made one because the wind was going almost directly in line with the field so a wind-aided kick was possible. The temp actually ended up being much colder than forecast at 6 degrees and the kicks that were attempted and made looked pretty miserable. One was about 35 yards and looked like it might make it 40 and that was with the wind at his back. I didn't even think of it, but the field surface was bad too. In the end I was never in danger as no kicks over 40 were even tried. My only mistake was not looking into other situations further as Olympic offers props on every game and I presume that same prop was out there. Only reason I noted that game was that I was doing my analysis on it and thought weather would play a big role in it. I did see that other game sites might have bad weather and they did, but didn't look into making similar bets on them.
One thing to note is that I used www.weather.com, usually considered the most accurate and they were way off on one of their forecasts. I almost didn't make my bet on the Patriots plus the points because they listed rain showers for Buffalo and 50 degrees, not snow. I figured the Bills would benefit more from rain but bet the Pats anyways and fortunately it worked out with snow really hurting both teams and favoring getting the generous points. Even the night before a game its hard to get an accurate weather forecast and that should worry us all at this time of year when weather makes a huge difference in games.
I have a dilemma to face. The NFL and football in general is not my strong point as my life long winning percentage has been around 54-55% compared to 56% on NHL, 57% on NBA totals, and a ROI that translates to about 59% on MLB. This year just got a lot better as I went 7-1 today on NFL and now I am facing a decision. I usually take the next week off after a big week in football as I recognize there is a lot of luck involved in winning at football and a week like this would normally get me a week off. I don't mind missing bets since its not really an important part of my overall betting scheme with only minor bankroll gains. Even though taking a week off when winning is rarely advised, I have done well with it as I usually will do some modest research and pick out some plays I would have played. Of course it isnt an exact science figuring out how your paper plays would be, but I feel comfortable I have saved myself money over time doing this.
My problem is that the last week of the NFL season has usually been my strongest. I usually have big last weeks as I have been very good at spotting psychology edges in the final week and guessing who is going to show up and who isn't. I guess maybe it helped me this week too, but I have been almost always a winning player. So I have two conflicting thoughts. Play or not play. Either way it shouldn't matter much since daily sports take up a much larger portion of my bankroll's ultimate destiny. Just thought I would put the question up for discussion and see what other people thought.
As you say, either way it should not matter to you much. If it were me, I would lean towards taking the time off. Relax a little, and get ready for the post season.
If you do take the time off, just be prepared for all the bets you would have made, to come in :-)
Either way, Good Luck
Howard
I think it's probably better to take it easy, but you might be able to pick up a few good bets just by doing some minor research. I'm the same way with picking games at the end of the season and these games normally just jump out at me. That's what I do after a big week, instead of placing 8 or more bets I put down 2-4 that I really like. That field goal play was great, thanks for mentioning it. I didn't get to bet it because thegreek.com wouldn't take my credit card. The wind factor was bothering me because I couldn't find a reliable source on it, but I was still going to bet it. You might be able to find another easy field goal line with the colder weather this week. Thanks for that tip. Good luck.
Jeff
Well believe me, taking it easy isn't what I would call it. I would say this is my busiest time of the year along with baseball since I play a lot of hockey and NBA totals. If I wanted to take it easy I would avoid football altogether. And I really don't bet much in the playoffs. Playoffs are fairly straightforward and don't require a whole lot of research. I basically do a couple looks through a team's schedule and pay close attention to their stats both year long and recent form and make some sort of judgement on what I think a team is capable of. When it comes down to it any pro level bettor will tell you in the NFL playoffs to just bet the dogs early and the favorites in later weeks. Same thing here as I bet almost all dogs last week and this week if I were to bet I see a lot of favorites I like. Thats my biggest concern its not like I can cherry pick the schedule as there are a LOT of games I would feel comfortable playing purely on psychology alone. Right now with the schedule in front of me I circled 9 games I like, much more than my normal play. I mean I look at this Tennessee game and think to myself that should be a slaughter, why would Dallas even show up there coming off two tough games against traditional rivals. The Niners going to Denver after the emotional game last week, they might not show up against a team that needs to get back on track probably playing its last game ever in their stadium. The Bengals going to Philly off an upset...I mean just those three alone stand out as being real strong plays just on the sense that those three teams don't match up terribly well and could very likely just mail in their effort.
Don't you think that these psychological factors are already reflected in the line? Or do you think that they may be but the line does not compensate enough for these factors?
John
They are slightly reflected, but not enough. When it comes down to it, if a team is not motivated to play in the NFL they are going to get beat down. Its too easy to stop running hard on a play and just walk out of bounds, its easy to not quite finish your block, its easy to not be completely concentrating and drop passes or miss a whole when running the ball. On the other side are teams that should be out for blood and will take no chances, running up the score to make sure they get what they need done. Sometimes there are situations where a team might tighten up facing pressure, but these three I mentioned just seem like spots where I can't find a reason for one team not to dominate. The Bears are a poorly coached mess with rumblings of dissent, the Bengals are a running team playing a strong defense and you don't want to be a running team when you fall behind, and the Cowboys...well what else do I need to say other than Alexander Wright and the worst rush defense in recent years. Like I say, I like my matchups here taking teams that all will have something to play for in front of fired up fans. The key here is to go against teams without motivation on the road. At home they might make an effort. Also helps other than Bears-Lions, there is no rivalries here. I mean these are perfect situations. Just a matter of these teams coming out and taking care of business. I probably will only play these three games and pass on my other opportunities. I definitely feel I should go at least 2-1 with these.
Det and Tenn show some good insight, cincy being a running team is exactly why I would take them. If they control thr clock and the ball there will be a lead on thier side of the scoreboard not a deficit. what has philly got to play for ??? I got laughed at back in august by you and Abdul for touting the Dolphins to win the East and with a win in N.E. I will be cashing my tickets at 7-2 for Miami to win the East. :) couldn't resist
Good call on that one, I will be the first to admit I thought the Dolphins were in for a world of trouble with Fiedler/Huard at QB. In that respect they have been in trouble, but Lamar Smith has taken care of them. The whole division champ thing pisses me off because I was going on the angle that there has been a different winner in the NFC West each year. I thought it was a good shot again as I felt the Rams were in trouble with a very tough schedule. I crossed off SF and Carolina. NO was 14-1 in one spot and I was thinking of taking a shot with them, but discounted them because it would take Blake awhile to get into the flow of things. So I bet the Falcons at 8-1 and look what it got me! I have to just admit I am much better at playing the over/under wins prop than the division prop.
As for the Eagles, they play hard every week and I think this one is more a case of the opponent having nothing to play for. A losing team that has already signed their coach again and comes off an upset win over a division rival just smells to me like a team that will not show up at all. The Eagles had a week off so they will be fresh as well at a time when most teams are wearing out. Since they are headed to the playoffs they will have a definite purpose in getting themselves running at full speed. Also don't they need to win to insure having a home playoff game in round one?
They don't post the consensus picks any more for NFL games! This was a pretty good handicapping tool for me. I think they are a hurting company. Their stock is at a penny.
Yeah its worth less than I got in page views...2 cents! The whole concept became a joke because of the total zoo it is. Unless you are lucky enough to pick a ton of games and win most of them, you have no chance at being a recognizable name that will get page views. I just stopped bothering to do it after I realized no one really cared what I put up there anyways.
BOS + 2 ***
DAL play five games in seven days,they're 3-2 on their current six games road trip and they might miss Dirk Nowitzki.
maybe i should bet the opposite.I have to hand it to you ,you are very consistent.I am not trying to be insulting either.If I had bet the opposite of your picks on this forum I would have won almost all of them.Maybe thats what you should do.Remember it is just as hard to pick the losers every game ,as the winners.
Agree,but I went 5-0(one half time bet) on NBA sunday didn't post here,I quit.
please dont quit - i stress that i wasnt trying to be insulting.You obviously have a nice roll going.Whatever your system is -it works!Just whatever game you think is the winner -pick the opposite.
Tripped over my big shoes...
One suggestion, Big Al. Stop betting against the Lions playing at the Meadowlands!
Geez, tell me about it. Sorry Holybull about these past few weeks. Hope I didnt screw you up too bad.
This is a very preliminary draft of an article I will publish at some point at RGT or maybe in a future book. Constructive comments would be appreciated. I especially want comments from poker players since it should be apparent that the article touches on issues relevant to poker players also:-
Measures of Deception
Blackjack players who have just discovered how to count cards love to share ideas on "cover" strategies, styles of play or external actions designed to throw the pit boss off the scent of a player who has the advantage. Players enjoy doing this because anyone can do it, you can just toss out ideas intuitively. Cover ideas don't have to be checked with rigourous mathematical precision like other areas of the game do. And if a certain idea bought the player a few extra hours at the tables then its probably a good idea, no more justification is required, because what other justification could their be? For acting tricks, for example such as impersonating an ostentatiously vulgar playboy who bets carelessly, there is indeed no real way of measuring how successful it is except by seeing how long you can play without getting backed off or barred.
However, another class of cover strategy exists. These can be dumb plays designed to make the pit boss think you do not know how to play your hands, or bets that are contrary to the count. Playing or betting contrary to the count always costs you some of your edge, but it may be worth it if it extends your play time.
A means exists of measuring the effectiveness of certain cover strategies. Counters use the term betting correlation to describe how close a card-counting system is to a hypothetically perfect betting system. You can take the same principle and apply it to cover plays.
Firstly, you need to decide what you are trying to make the pit boss think you are doing. Traditionally counters adopt a number of betting styles similar or identical to popular styles of play used by negative expectation players. Ask yourself, are you trying to make the pit boss think you are flat betting, a hunch bettor, a random bettor, or a progression bettor?
Now you want to decide how close your cover system is to the style of play you are imitating. A 100% correlation would be if you were imitating a style of betting exactly. For example, if you decide that flat bettors never get suspected of being card counters, because card counters usually vary bets by the count, you might decide to flat bet each hand and depend upon your edge from playing decisions.
If you flat bet every hand your cover correlation is 100%. If, every 100 hands, the count becomes so high you can't resist shoving another chip out, your correlation is 99%. If you can only manage to flat bet on 50 out of 100 hands the correlation is a weak 50% and so on. Naturally the higher the cover correlation the lower the chance of detection.
The above example might seem trivial, something that can be understood instinctively. But the value of cover correlation becomes more apparent when dealing with more sophisticated strategies.
For example, some years ago I suggested on an internet forum that a martingale system combined with the playing decisions recommended by a count system provided returns superior to flat-betting. It is possible to use this approach under good conditions at the single-deck game. (This strategy appears in more detail in my book Get the Edge at Blackjack) However, a crucial requirement is that the bet must be reset at the shuffle. Another contributor suggested this would be a tell-tale sign that the counter was not strictly following the martingale. At the time I had no answer except "I don't think so". However, now I could offer a more substantive answer.
Say six rounds are dealt between shuffles. The sixth hand might be a loss, in which case the strict martingale player would reset his bet. Also, the previous hand may have been a loss, and this hand may be a push, so the strict martingaler would also reset his bet. Otherwise the player is forced to reset his bet contrary to the demands of a martingale and potentially expose the fact that he is not a progression player. Roughly, the player will have to do this about 50% of the time.
We know the first hand after the shuffle occurs 16.6% of the time (100%/6). 50% (the chance of having to reset the bet contrary to the progression) of 16.6% is 8.3%.
100%-8.3 gives 91.7% (call it 92%).
We can therefore say, the cover correlation is 92%. This gives some indication of the power of the method.
It sounds more impressive than "I do not think so" anyway.
Try running through the numbers on your own cover methods. I think you may be surprised at the results, which are often not what you would expect.
Some limitations exist with this method of evaluating cover styles.
Firstly, some pit bosses are highly skilled, to the extent that they can identify a card counter solely on the strength of his playing decisions. Even a 100% cover correlation will not help you then. Such individuals are rare, but they do exist, particulary in Nevada's slowly vanishing single-deck games where the best men are stationed.
Secondly, pit bosses are trained to detect "tells", giveaway counter mannerisms such as mouthing the count unconsciously or unusual proficiency in handling chips. Again, unless you can eliminate these mannerisms from your behaviour the effectiveness of your cover techniques are irrelevant, as you are likely to be barred or backed off anyway.
However, in the vast majority of cases, a counter's play is restricted because of his betting. So, as a practical matter, a precise evaluation of the value of a given cover method is essential to continued success as a card-counter.
In subsequent articles we can look at how to use cover correlation to understand how much a given cover strategy might prolong our play, and examine the concept of "total cover", the perfect disguise for a counter which not even a computer can detect.
Hard to say since its part of a bigger picture, but be sure to inform all that the card counting graveyard is filled with people that took this too far. Counter cover is really to be used sparingly or else you give up too much edge. Some situations will come up where its better to take the chance on being backed off or just getting up and leaving. These would be situations where the pit is paying most of its attention to you. What a counter really needs is sparing attention from the pit where he is rarely even forced to think about covering himself. This simple principle seems to be missed by all the books. Sure its a bit simplistic when you think about it "just play where the pit doesn't watch you", but I have heard of too many wannabe counters that enjoyed the acting side so much or mistakenly gave away too much edge to mislead that they couldn't be winners. After all this is the type of activity that makes most counters actually losers...the kind of players that allows counting to go on. Players that fail to win as counters generally have minimal trouble keeping counts or making the most important decisions correctly, they mostly fail because they make mistakes in giving up too much edge or playing in too many bad, unbeatable games. Now there is something you almost never hear in the books, yet its straight out of the mouth of a very successful counter I know that has seen many people come and go in the business.
Be able to score against 35 points against Tampa Bays defense and still lose just pisses me offff maybe even the odds makers. Carter has to go" the idiot" drawing a personal foul at the worst time moving the ball to the 35 yard line, hell Tampa doesnt need anymore breaks, Rams need some serious house cleaning in the defensive department........PS put the Rams offense with Tampas defense and what to you, 8, superbowls in the next 10 years, I know dream on.
That team is what the Redskins were supposed to be 8 losses ago you realize?
Rams are just being exposed in the way many of us thought they should have been last year. They had the phoniest stats I had ever seen last year. This is almost the same exact defense that last year DOMINATED the rush defense stats. Of course they did, everyone they played sucked and was behind them for most of the games. The Rams are still a good and very dangerous team and everyone in the league should be praying for the Lions to not blow it because I sure wouldn't want to face this team in the playoffs. Like I pointed out earlier this year, the Rams have trouble with teams that are physical. Other than the Giants win, they really had trouble with teams that brought the battle to them. Next year, presuming the Lions don't blow it, look for the Rams to dump or relegate overrated talent like Kevin Carter and Grant Wistrom and get guys that don't spend all their focus rushing the passer and stay at home stopping the run.
A little about 3 minutes to go, Martz elects to make the Bucs use their remaining timeouts. This basically guarantees that if the Rams defense does not stop the Bucs, the Rams will have little time left with no time outs. The alternative for the Rams was to try and keep the ball by making first downs which would have involved throwing the football. The Rams had a good night offensively against the Bucs especially throwing the ball. With one maybe, two certainly first downs the Rams ice this game. If the Bucs stop the Rams, then there may be enough time to score again if the Bucs score. Probably nobody will agree with me but I think Martz screwed up. He also screwed up at the end of the first half and I think it is no small coincidence that the Rams have seen their defense slip a lot under their new coach.
No I always agree that teams are stupid for trying to milk the clock at the end with a lead. Rarely is it correct to just give the ball away with the intention of taking off some time and using up timeouts. The only way that playcalling would have been correct is if the Rams were a running team and those three plays would have been their best choices. The Rams never had trouble throwing all night, it definitely was a mistake. Hey I am a Bucs fan so I won't complain, but reality was that I thought they are were through because they hadn't stopped them much all night and had a short field against them and the Rams did us a favor.
>>Hey I am a Bucs fan so I won't complain<<
Hey I'm a Packers fan so I will complain LOL. It's going to be mighty cold at Lambeau this Sunday. King probably has never experienced playing in this kind of cold.
True and I am sure every analyst will point out that they havent won under 40 degrees forgetting that about 90% of those games were with the Bucs teams that just plain sucked! It definitely will be a tough game, but it won't be for weather reasons. Coming off that MNF game will be tough enough. However I think the running game edge is with the Bucs and if the weather is really bad then the running game will be more important.
The rams defense is the worst ever for a defending Super Bowl champ. I also think they have a head coach problem with Mike Martz. He seems to care only about offense, neglecting the other parts of the team. What about the chance of Dick Vermeil coming back, if any?
Today was one of those days where if you don't count football, well I should have played the lottery. I went 10-0, thats right 10-0, betting NHL and NBA. I was running so well that my under bet on the Spurs game at the miniscule 175 number won even though they played OT!!! Seeing that there are no games tomorrow and limited schedule on X-mas day, I don't have to face this dilemma again for a little bit. However, I have never had a day even close to this one before, do those of you that play the daily sports regularly find days like this are followed by losing streaks? Its harder for me to lay off because NHL and NBA are my bread and butter whereas I could easily lay off NFL or NCAA and not miss much potential action on my BR.
This game opened as a pick em and now Purdue is a 1 1/2 point favorite. I am perplexed as I clearly think Washington is the superior team. I originally had them as a 4-6 point favorite before the line was set. Obviously, since the original line has moved 1 1/2 points, bettors like Purdue. Can someone tell me why? I think you can make an arguement that this Washington team should be No. 1 and they definately were playing their best ball at the end of the season. I think this is a shoe in, but I hesitate to go that far because of the last 2 weeks...--Big Al--
what is the motivation of huskies: should be in natioal championship playoff, but playing low ranked team in g with no real significance, other than big ten to save face and brees sign huge contract...
Wrong. I am an alum of UW and this game means a hell of a lot to us. We used to rule the Pac 10 and the Rose Bowl and then the idiots put us on probation. This game is our chance to get out and show we have returned to top form. Besides you have to realize that to win in the Pac 10 you have to recruit out of CA and especially LA. Winning the Rose Bowl does wonders for that. Believe me, the players and fans are completely fired up for this game and few of us really worry too much about the national title talk. That was something that never really came up until the last week so its not like anyone really feels robbed. We would have felt robbed and upset if we didn't make the Rose Bowl and been left out of the Fiesta Bowl as it appeared might happen until things fell right for the league during the final week and then when the Beavers got their much deserved Fiesta bid.
The line is as it is simply because the public bettors are badly misled on the Big 10 vs. Pac 10 comparison. The Big 10 is filled with many mediocre teams and yet somehow keep their repuatation as a tough conference. Make no doubt about it, the Pac 10 was the best conference this year, a step ahead of the Big 12 and SEC. Even team number 10, Washington State, could give a good battle to many of the bowl teams playing this year. Just look at all the teams playing in bowls from the league. How can ASU only be 3 point favorites over a pathetic BC team? If they didn't have motivational problems, I would love UCLA getting all those points against a mediocre Wisconsin team. Oregon is a complete bargain getting a TD against Texas considering they have one month to heal up all their extremely talented yet banged up skill players. And Oregon State, well there is the steal of the year, they are a good 10 points better than ND. That one is all about repuation, nothing less. No one in their right mind would say the Beavers and Irish are close in talent right now. For goodness sakes the Irish are lucky to be there beating Air Force at home with a blocked kick that would have beaten them. Its just stunning, look over all the lines and ask yourself how the Pac 10 is getting such little respect. Who knows, maybe I will be proven wrong, but once again I reiterate based on form and playing in the toughest conference this year, EVERY team from the Pac 10 is a good bet in the bowls with the Beavers and Huskies being the best bets. In any case, when was the last time a number 4 team was a dog to a number 14 team???
I live in Indiana, so I can certainly attest to the weakness of the Big-10 in football. Let's face it, beyond Notre Dame, the midwest is known more for basketball. And it's true that the PAC-10 historically has had stronger football teams. Nonetheless, since I've not followed college football this year, I can't gauge how this matchup will go. Still, Purdue winning the Rose Bowl??? Nahhhh.
i appreciate your response...this may be a great bet...i was just giving one possible interpretation...clearly a team going to a lesser bowl (which historically would NOT be the rose bowl) can be unmotivated and their opponent which is having a shot above their usual rank can be a great bowl bet(a very live underdog)...clearly not the only factor...would appreciate any other thoughts on this game i agree the line semms wrong..and hmmmmm..Happy holidays everyone...
WB is absolutely right about the pac-10. I've seen most every ND game this year a ton of pac-10 including many OSU. The Irish are going to run into a brick wall in the Fiesta. And ASU is a good team that had a horrendous run of multi-overtime games that wiped them out, but when they got a little rest they beat the snot out of a team that probably power-rating wise isn't much different then their forthcoming opponent. Funny that I said I was looking for a place to short the nw pac-10 teams midway through the year; now the bandwagon has come full circle. There's value across the board for the pac-10 bowl games.
JG
The line keeps going up too, I have seen a lot of 2.5 today looking over some offshore books. Usually with offshores all you will have are people jostling for position as most square bettors and big money bettors won't bet this game this early. Its probably an anticipation of a move up if I am reading it properly so we should wait until last minute to bet UW. Who knows, it just seems very strange indeed. I also noticed moves against the whole Pac-10 except OSU is still right at 3, but being a key number would take a lot to move that. Oregon is 7.5 in many places and I saw UCLA as high as 6. ASU is 3 everywhere now after being 4 early on at some shops. It seems too coincidental that all Pac 10 teams are getting action against them. Some serious money must think they are overrated. There is probably some merit to the fact that they don't get their due because they lack blowouts. However I think one thing people are overlooking is that their coaches in these bowl games are probably in general better coaches than average, although I refuse to say that about Snyder! However few coaches would be coveted as much if they were free agents than Neuheisel, Belotti, and Erickson.
One other thing is that these teams are practicing in relatively mild climates, compared to the rest of the nation. All these bowl games are played in warm cities except for El Paso and that could be a mild location. Purdue, BC, Notre Dame, Wisconsin...all are putting up with some downright crappy weather these days and probably aren't getting any good practices in until they arrive in the host city. Just a little edge that could mean something in the fourth quarter of close games.
aiyah, all the wheels fell off for ASU. Fortunately I missed betting this one AND it might help the lines for all the other Pac-10 games.
JG
Well Snyder let us down with a terribly prepared team that was never mentally in it. Physically it looked like ASU was the better side but they made all the turnovers in key spots in the 1st half and then did almost nothing in the second half. For all those so called experts on TV that were saying Snyder was getting a raw deal, yesterday was your proof that he is an incapable coach who didn't get his team up and properly prepared for a foe they could easily handle
Actually, I think your P10 bias is coloring your read of the ASU game.
Fact is, BC & Pitt have the best air attacks of all the participants in the fleabag bowls, which run thru the 28th.
And I was privy to some legitimate "insider" info concerning the ASU mood going into that game. The atmosphere was actually quite good amongst the Sun Devils players. There was no great feeling for Bruce Snyder, but his staff had solid relationships with virtually everyone on the squad.
I will agree that the P10 is the best conference this year. My rankings have them a smidgen above the Big 12, and a good deal better than everyone else. I too see the Huskies & Beavers as some of the best values this postseason.
But the line value available to the P10 backers this year is there for a good reason: they stunk the last 2 seasons. The B10 was by FAR the best conference each of the last 2 seasons. If you want, I can dig out the numbers to prove it. Hell, the Badgers won each of the last 2 Rose Bowls despite being no better than the 3rd best team in the conference either year.
But these things run in cycles, and it really is the P10's year.
About that Huskies-Boilermaker matchup:
While I certainly will have my cash on UW, I do have a healthy respect for the Purdue team. Their DL was outweighed by 30-50 lbs per man all season, yet they put up some decent numbers. UW's edge here isn't just in its big OL(Wisky's OL is much bigger, and Michigan's OL is much better), but its combo of a big OL AND a great running QB. Purdue hasn't seen that this season.
Another dot.com casualty has bitten the dust. Predictit.com has ceased operations.
I think they provided a nice site. Obviously there's no money in providing it though.
Oh well, DBC sports is going in the tank as a whole. Don Best has totally stolen their market that they used to have for their odds and news sports signal product and obviously providing stats is a commodity now, its not the specialty it used to be. I was stunned to hear they no longer do Scorecast, a great great product that saved me who knows how many hours of recordkeeping during baseball season. In reality the whole model of predictit was flawed in that no one really wants to go follow someone elses picks for free. The people that are willing to pay for picks or play someone else's picks are generally caught up more in the hype and that is just missing from predictit. Besides there were so many thousands of picks to look at, how could anyone really decided who to look at and stay with?
I did use predictit to spot some traps. A few games the consesus pick was about 85-90%. I went the opposite, and won 4 of 5 games this year.
There was some previous discussion regarding the Denver Nuggets earlier. Their first home game since the debacle they won but did not cover. See previous posts.
They played effectively, they just couldn't cover a big number in a fast paced game. I think its safe to say the team has cleaned up their act at least somewhat with the two tough wins in Texas.
Underdogs do it again,Bruce Marshall writes a good article about underdogs and favorites in the bowl games at goldsheet.com.
So I gave in and analyzed all the games and drastically changed my picks so scrap what I have said during the week.
I am going with SF-Den Over (will there be a punt in this one) and Seattle (Buffalo won't show up) on Saturday. On Sunday I like Min-Ind Over (same as above over game), Washington (yeah crazy I know but Cards are using semi-pros and Skins are no longer under telescope), St. Louis (Saints are pretenders), NYJ (Ravens are pretenders too-first round loss I am predicting), Mia-NE Under (don't see how they will score any points here).
Ravens pretenders ?
They are going to break the record this week. The fewest points given up in a season,by a defense in the NFL.They WILL break the great 'Ryan era' bears record this week.They might not be as great as that great Bears defense of old,but they are a great defense none the less.They all know they are going to be a part of history this week. I expect them to be really up for this game.
Footnote-Fewest points allowed in a 16 game season ( The NFL went to 16 games in 1978 ).
Good Luck
Howard
Ravens have talent no doubt about it. I believe the weakest part of their team is their passing game. Everything else is top notch as they have been drafting high for a long time.
watch out for bills with flutie happy holidays...take a look at green bay...lock he he..the game has already been played and they covered..gl
I really think Tampa is a good bet this weekend. EVERYONE is picking GB because of the Favre cold weather and Tampa cold weather angle.
Go against public opinion to make money. Tampa will win.
sometimes the mountain is a mountain, sometimes more than a mountain...happy holidays
I am starting to think the Bucs will get it too. It falls into my category of EVERYONE on the face of the earth is taking the Pack and yet the number hasn't really moved. Just tells me not so intelligent money is being moved mostly. Hell even the Mexicans down here in Ensenada were all saying they would bet the Packers tomorrow down at the local branch of Caliente. If that doesn't tell you whats up, nothing does! I have to say the Mexicans are getting better down here. They now know what a false start is as they were calling it out when it was done in a game before the announcers said it. Before I always told the Mexicans to stick to picking horse races when they tried to give me advice on any team sports at a Caliente location, but if they prove me wrong I may have to change my view.
As for the Ravens, I am sorry but I am just not impressed. I look at their pathetic schedule and think the Pac 10 faced tougher offenses! Jax scored 46 in 2 games against them, Tenn scored 37 in 2 games, they gave up 19 points to Miami (!!!)...then the rest of the schedule reads Cle, Cin, and Pit two games each, and the other sorry offenses in AZ, Dal, SD, and Wash. With a schedule like that, they would be ashamed NOT to break the record. To ice it off, don't forget I have long followed the Bucs and if there is one thing all us true Bucs fans know is: Trent Dilfer will never win a big game for you. With them facing Denver or Oakland first round, they are heading for a quick exit as either team will EASILY have the best offense they have faced all year and they will need Dilfer to win the game for them.
Bill I have it on good authority that King doesn't like cold weather and has never seen snow. Seriously Freeman is out for this game apparently due to being late for team meetings, turnovers will probably be a big factor in this game, and it seems like the running game is going to be a big part of determining the winner. I think the line is right and for any serious bettor this game is a pass.
Since last week's was so successful, trying to beat the props at Olympic again. Two stick out for Saturday and Sunday's I will look at later, but probably won't get to post since I won't be near a computer tomorrow night.
For the Giants game, have to like under on the FG prop again. Windy conditions are forecast for NYC and considering Meadowlands is good for wind on a calm day, that can't be a good sign. Weather will be chilly, but not too cold, so lose a bit of the addition there. Just don't think either kicker here is a real accurate long range guy. The price is down somewhat from last week as I have to lay -135, but still a 44 yard kick in sub-freezing temperature with wind isn't something I fear too much.
For Buffalo, I am just too tempted by one bet. The Bills rush D is far superior to the Hawks and Flutie will play so that should add some additional rush yards. Even with these obvious plus factors, Bills are getting odds here at +105. I am a bit leery though because I bet Seattle in the game thinking Bills won't make much of an effort. However with it being a very meaningless game I think Holmgren is going to open it up, he won't be worried about playing a tactically perfect game. Besides Kitna is his main concern and seeing how he might fit in next year. With that being the case I see Buffalo playing a bit conservative in the likely rain just to keep from seeing their stone handed receivers drop more passes while Seattle will be looking to air it out as much as possible, of course weather dependent. Simply put Seattle is having fun and trying to develop their weak passing game while Buffalo just wants to end this season as quickly as possible and that means running more and getting out of town. Too many factors favor Buffalo here to be getting any kind of odds.
i like the giants to cover 3.5 vs jax...i like bills +3 vs seattle...key bet...green bay -2.5 vs tampa bay...t.b has never won at 34 deg or less if weather permits i like s.f./ denver total over happy holidays mortgage the house on the pack....still looking at rose bowl...pac 10 might be conf to bet this year...
Well the Giants were on the 28 yard line, the worst place for them to be for your bet, and it was 4th down, and 8...and they went for it!
Great Bet.
Danny
Ok, maybe not I am a bit young to retire. I am down at a friends newly purchased house in Ensenada where I discovered they get cable modems and service for almost half what I would have to pay. Boy am I pissed, oh well I digress.
For tomorrow, I am trying to vacation a bit down here so I didn't do a full lookover of the props, but at an easy 2-0 today on the props and 0-2 on regular plays, I figure I better do some more handicapping. For starters doesn't look like quite the weather weekend we saw last weekend. No major snow spots at least according to forecasts.
I am taking St. Louis -190 to have more passing yards. I think the only way I lose this one is if the Rams get out to a very big lead early, especially if it comes off turnovers or a long Faulk run. Otherwise there is almost no way for them to lose this one. Even when they are ahead they have to pass to keep possesion because as they showed last week, Faulk gets stopped when the opponent expects him to carry it. Their run D has been flat out terrible and the Saints will look to exploit that, but their pass D is decent and does have two big play CBs. The Saints will probably try to control the clock as most teams say they will do. In the end I think the gameplan fits it perfectly with the Rams going with the pass and the Saints taking the land route. The price is a bit hefty, but the bottom line is that this is an utter mismatch because even if the Saints did throw the ball often, the Rams would be 2-1 to win this bet just on talent matchups alone. Throw in the bad run D and it makes it that much more likely.
Another I like is in the Dolphins-Pats game. I like under 31.5 yards for longest TD play. Neither team has big play weapons and I doubt there will be many TDs scored in this game as it is. Dolphins are going to run the ball a lot considering Fiedler's problems, even if NE has some players missing in the secondary. Smith is a solid runner, but he isn't really a gamebreaking type player that will outrun the defense too much. I would really like this play more if it weren't for the secondary players being out for NE as that might encourage the Dolphins to take an occasional shot at the big play, but still will take my chances on this low scoring game not having any real fireworks.
The last play I have for now really causes me to wonder what is wrong with this line. I am taking SD to have more passing yards at -110. On the surface this seems just ridiculous. Pittsburgh is probably going to be under some pressure to win. In that case I don't think they will trust Stewart to do it for them, relying on Bettis and Huntley instead. The Chargers plain and simple can't run. They will have to pass. If the game goes as expected and the Chargers are down, they will be forced to pass even more. Not that Ryan Leaf scares anyone, but he does tend to get many more yards than Stewart does, he is just lucky they don't subtract all the yards defenders get on runbacks of his INTs. Please someone explain to me how the Steelers are favored for this particular bet!
Pick of the year -KC -4 over atlanta nfl...........St Louis -3 over New Orleans -----------I TOLD YOU SO
Merry Christmas (these picks are your xmas gift)
Maybe some of you out there can help with this problem:
I have software for evaluating performace of harness race horses. (Now i know that there is a lot of software available in the US for this use, but in my country there is no such things - maybe because there is less formalized information available.)
OK. These performance numbers give me a pretty good idea of how good the horses are, but how should I put it to use?
We all know there is more to figuring out the probability of a horse winning, than this. Position behind the gate, driver, distance and so on. Adding these things in the equation, does however mean adding factors all ready concidered by the masses, while the performance number i get is pretty unique. Am I in effect just "polluting" the result by adding these factors? Or must I do this to have any chance of finding out which horses are good betting objects (winner chance/odds)?
I have no doubt that adding these factors would increase the win percentage of the horses highest on my list, but is it really sure that I would win more money that way?
Lets theorize some more: If you have one way of getting a possible winner list of horses to a race, which is pretty good and then combine it with another list that is not as good, but is still better than random, would the overall product improve? How about a third list, slighty better than random? There is probably a general answer to this question, but myself - I dont have it.
Help is greatly appreciated.
-- Skinner
My two year analysis of this wonderful study of Futures is that betting UNDER on teams that have to win 10 or more games in the regular season you would of gone 12 Wins and 2 Loses for the last two seasons. This probably will all change next year but until then it looks good to me.
2000 Results Futures
# TEAM Games OV/UN MY PICK RESULT
1 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 11.5 OV-115 UN UN
2 WASHINGTON REDSKINS 11.5 OV-110 UN UN
3 ST. LOUIS RAMS 11 OV 115 UN UN
4 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 10.5 OV 110 UN UN
5 TENNESEE TITANS 10.5 OV 105 OV OV
6 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 10.5 OV 105 UN UN
7 DENVER BRONCOS 9.5 OV -145 UN OV
8 BALTIMORE RAVENS 9 OV-130 UN OV
9 OAKLAND RAIDERS 9 OV-110 UN OV
10 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 8.5 OV 115 OV UN
11 BUFFALO BILLS 8.5 EVEN OV UN
12 GREEN BAY PACKERS 8.5 EVEN UN OV
13 CAROLINA PANTHERS 8 EVEN PASS UN
14 CHICAGO BEARS 8 OV-135 UN UN
15 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 8 EVEN PASS UN
16 NEW YORK JETS 8 OV-110 PASS OV
17 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 7.5 OV 125 OV OV
18 MINNESOTA VIKINGS 7.5 OV-110 UN OV
19 ATLANTA FALCONS 7.5 OV-105 OV UN
20 MIAMI DOLPHINS 7.5 OV-125 UN OV
21 PITTSBURG STEELERS 7.5 OV-115 UN OV
22 DALLAS COWBOYS 7.5 OV-135 UN UN
23 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 7.5 OV-110 UN UN
24 ARIZONA CARDINALS 7.5 OV 115 OV UN
25 NEW YORK GIANTS 7.5 OV-105 UN OV
26 SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 6.5 OV 105 OV UN
27 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 6.5 OV-110 OV OV
28 DETROIT LIONS 6.5 OV-155 OV OV
29 CINCINNATI BENGALS 5.5 OV-105 UN UN
30 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 5.5 OV 105 UN OV
31 CLEVELAND BROWNS 4.5 OV 105 UN UN
2000 Totals Futures Sections---Over----Under----Push
1-----8----------3---------5---------0
9----16---------3---------5----------0
17---23---------4--------3----------0
24---31---------4---------4----------0
Totals---------14---------17----------0
1999 Totals Futures
Sections------Over------Under------Push
1-8------------1---------7----------0
9-16-----------3---------5----------0
17-23----------5---------2----------0
24-31----------5---------2----------1
--------------------------------------------
Totals---------14---------16----------1
As Of Today 1/9/00.
1999 NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE TOTAL REGULAR SEASON WINS
TEAM ---------------ODDS -----------OVER/UNDER
1)JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 11.5 ---OVER--
2)MINNESOTA VIKINGS 11.5----UNDER--
3)DENVER BRONCOS 11 ---UNDER--
4)GREEN BAY PACKERS 10.5 ----UNDER--
5)SAN FRANCISCO 49ers 10.5 ---UNDER--
6)NEW YORK JETS 10.5 ----UNDER--
7)ATLANTA FALCONS 10 -----UNDER--
8)MIAMI DOLPHINS 10 ----UNDER--
9)TENNESSEE TITANS 9 -----OVER--
10)PITTSBURGH STEELERS 8.5-----UNDER--
11)DALLAS COWBOYS 8.5 -----UNDER--
12)TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 9-----OVER--
13)SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 9.5 ----UNDER--
14)BUFFALO BILLS 9 -----OVER--
15)NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 8.5 -----UNDER--
16)ARIZONA CARDINALS 8.5 -----UNDER--
17)KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 8.5 -----OVER--
18)NEW YORK GIANTS 8 -----UNDER--
19)DETROIT LIONS 7 -----OVER--
20)BALTIMORE RAVENS 7 -----OVER--
21)WASHINGTON REDSKINS 7.5 -----OVER--
22)NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 6.5 ----UNDER--
23)ST. LOUIS RAMS 6.5 ----OVER--
24)OAKLAND RAIDERS -160-----OVER--
25)INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 6.5 -----OVER--
26)SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 5.5 -----OVER--
27)CAROLINA PANTHERS 6 ----OVER--
28)CINCINNATI BENGALS 5 ----UNDER--
29)CHICAGO BEARS 5 -----OVER--
30)PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 5 ----PUSH---
31)CLEVELAND BROWNS 4.5 -----UNDER--
Sections------Over------Under------Push
1-8------------1---------7----------0
9-16-----------3---------5----------0
17-23----------5---------2----------0
24-31----------5---------2----------1
--------------------------------------------
Totals---------14---------16----------1
I hear NFL players say every years that it's hard to win ten games in NFL.
It didn't used to be that way, but now it is. It will go in cycles though, I am sure another dominant team will emerge at some point that seems to reload for many years, much as the 49ers used to do. I simply don't believe free agency will end this because in reality the free agency should make smart decisions at a premium. Mike Shanahan has proven this as he has been as close to a powerful team in recent times and probably would have had a 10 win season last year without all the injuries they had. I think part of the problem today is that too many players are coming out of college after one or two years as a starter and they just aren't prepared for the NFL game after that. However the league spends so much on these guys and so much is expected that they often have to perform right away. Who knows what Ryan Leaf might have been like had he be given the two on the bench to learn the game like many of today's starters are getting. The NBA can have players come out early because basketball is much more a pure talent game where you are playing one on one most of the time. The NFL is a team game with lots of intracacies that require a lot of experience and understanding to master.
Can anybody tell me what the final numbers were this year for the NFL on overs and unders? Meaning, how many games went over and how many went under. Does anybody also have those results for the colege games that had totals as well. It seems that if you bet over on every game, especially in college, you would have made money. Just wondering if perception and reality are the same thing in this case. I know for Monday Night football, that maybe 3 games went under out of the 16 prior to tonights game, and perhaps once did the combination of "dog to the under" come in. If anybody has these final numbers, it would be appreciated. By the way, the 3 bowl games played up to now have gone over twice with one tie (depending on when you bet the UNLV game).
Gambler
I see the line on this game is New Orkeans plus 5 1/2. This game is very interesting, it will be the third straight road game for the Rams and their fourth road game in 5 weeks. Thats tough....also, playing the Rams for a second week in a row, at home, I have difficulty seeing the Saints losing twice in a row. I am thinking of playing the Saints very strongly but would like to hear other views on this game....Big Al.
I thought the Saints were a great play on Sunday ( even though I lost), I think they are even a better play this time as MF would have to repeat his great showing of sunday and that will be tough to do against a Saint team that will be stacked up to stop him.
Although I have no strong opinion on this game one way or another. Remember that the rams are kind of like the Ravens in reverse. The Ravens have a really bad offense,and a defense that makes big plays.The Rams have a really bad defense and an offense that makes really big plays.I know that is obvious,but for me, it at least makes me hesitant to go against the Rams offense.IMHO
Good Luck
Howard
My feelng is this line seems awfully strange, maybe a reflection of public money. Rams had a lot more motivation last week and now with the motivation even the line should be less. After all the Rams won by 5 and now are favored by more. I think of all the possibilities, the Saints are more likely to play better than the Rams. I also think Warner might be getting rushed back here. You don't want to mess with a concussion and facing a team that is certain to hit him often just seems very risky. I know they want to win this game badly, but I think a player of Warner's ability and the precarious spot the Rams are in having to win 3 road games makes this a spot where I probably would play it safe and hope Faulk and Green could get me by and bring Warner in for the big game in Minnesota.
Wildbill,
If the Rams win, they'd play the Giants next, not Minnesota.
Oh sorry about that, I forgot they base the next round matchups on the lowest remaining seed. Certainly the Rams would rather play the Vikings than the Giants considering the weather and field difference to go along with the Giants playing much better at this time. In either case I think the Rams would be a good sized favorite over either team, probably around 5 points.
what was the line in the game last week?
Rams were favored by 3.5 compared to the 5.5 or 6 they are this week.
MIN -4 ***
DAL OVER 201 **
If the Rams traded their offense to the Ravens for their offense, how good and bad would the two teams be? Would it be 16-0 and 0-16?
Like I said before, I am still not sold on the Ravens D. If they had played a tougher schedule they would not have set the record. I think their D is only slightly better than Tennessee and Tampa. Their offense is probably the worst in the playoffs, but certainly better than a bunch of teams that are not in the playoffs. If you had the Rams D and the Ravens O then you probably would have a team that would win 2 or 3 games as it would still be better than Cleveland.
I don't think it is obvious that the Ravens D is the best in the league - in fact, I think they, along with Miami, Tennessee, Eagles, Giants & Saints are all pretty close - and just one fluke play can really cost the difference between any one of these 5 teams. I guess the question would have been better phrased by saying giving the Rams one of these Ds instead of the one they have.
By the way, were the Rams D so bad last year - I don't think so, at least they didn't have the same reputation. So, what happened?
"So what happened?"
Their head coach retired.
ditto. they gave up 6000 yards against the jets despite the jets turning the ball over as often as they could.
Vinnie turn the ball over ? I used to go to the bucs games when Vinnie QB'd there. Heck, I used to go to the Bucs games when Duog Williams QB'd there. Anyway,Vinnie has matured into a Decent enough QB. He is just always going to be prone to turn the ball over.
PS........
I could care less if a team I bet on, gives up a lot of yards, as long as they protect their endzone :-)
Other than the chapter in "Gambling for a Living", what is the best source of information for learning how to beat sports?
Thanks, Mitch McDeer
This topic has been covered many times in the past.Altough I know that some of the books, that have been a great help to me, others might find to be worthless. Let me take a moment to give Bob McCune a recomendation.Two of my favorite books by him are EDUCATION OF A SPORTS BETTOR (1989), and REVELATIONS IN SPORTSBETTING opus 5 (1997,2000).
I know our house Guru Wildbill has a high opinion of him too.
Good Luck
Howard
Andy Iskoe(Wharton graduated)writes a good artitle for SBI(sportsbook insider),check it out at vegasinsider.com.
He also has a radio show,in Vegas, that has been on for many years.
I think Washington in the Rose Bowl is a very strong play. Take the 1 1/2 points. Its Big Al's shoe in of the (new) year.
Other Gambling Games
December 2000 Digest is provided by Two Plus Two Publishing and ConJelCo