Call of Duty: Modern Bot Warfare

Impossible? No. A lot harder? Yeah. If you only get 10 hands at a table, you're not going to be able to identify a reg. You might get a guy who open limps 3 times in those 10 hands and it is safe to tag that player as a Fish. We have an algorithm that does this. "Unknown" to Fish ratio is possible to approximate. We can't buy mined HHs and get a sense of the whole pool of course. Everything is an approximation and subject to very wide ranges of confidence.

The real pain in the butt, though, is that we have players all across the globe. We'd have to do some sort of pre-processing to get all the HH times aligned. Again, doable, but it was already done a few years ago and the conclusions are basically the same ones we've all arrived at in this thread: a) weekends are the best and b) the most lucrative hours are approximately 12am-6am local to the Fish. My hunch is that the biggest source of Fish on Iggy is American west coasters. Harder to access games on the east coast because some of the biggest markets, like NYC, have unfavorable regulations. California does not. The study we did from ~2 years ago looked at 3 hour brackets, though. I thought checking hour by hour might be interesting. I only have 400k hands or so. In the end, I can't accomplish much beyond satisfying my curiosity with a sample like that.

Yeah, in the end, common sense does win out here. The only interesting point to consider is that "night" can be very different for the Fish and the reg in question. We have guys that wake up at 5am to grind when it is 11pm in LA. So, there is some value in knowing where the largest Fish population in your games hail from. My hunch is that the answer is California/west coast USA for Iggy.

Thanks, Max! Max is one of the Nacho's guys who was crushing 200z/500z for 15bb/100 earlier this year.

# 12/10: -539bb, -$1612

Tracker:

December:

Today:

Session Debrief:
Everyone struggles sometimes. Even players with 5+bb/100 true win rates will go on 10+ BI downers. That's just variance. That's life, really.

Show up and do the work anyway. Our results fluctuate. Our standards do not.

GLGL with your grind, fellas!
WAGMI

# 12/11: -$74, +373bb

Tracker:

December:

Today:

Session Debrief:
Keep on clickin' boys.

WAGMI

12/12: +$189, -143bb

Tracker:

December:

Today:

Session Debrief:

GLGL with your grinds, fellas!
WAGMI

12/13: +$353, +334bb

Tracker:

December:

Today:

Session Debrief:

Despite what has probably been bottom ~10-15% run this month, I've kept it close. 2k is 4 buy-ins at 500nl. I've won 10 buy-ins in a single day at at 500nl before. We still have two and a half weekends left. I'm feeling extremely optimistic about how this month is going to end up.

Don't let 'em hang around in the second half... or, you know...

GLGL with your grind!
WAGMI

"ESP it's a jellyroll". It's right there in Super System. Doyle was right, trust your gut feelings, put people on narrower ranges, and go out on a limb more. Push every edge. Pretend you can see your opponent's cards and trust that read.

Have you read Super System?

Are you assuming that we're actually playing all that many "people" on Ignition? :p

I have never read it, actually. I did listen to "Godfather of Poker" on Audiobook and it was absolutely awesome. I haven't taken the time to read most of the classic poker books. Believe it or not, I've never played a single hand of live poker. Not one, not ever. I'll throw it on the to-do list.

# 12/14: -$716, -322bb

Tracker:

December:

Today:

Session Debrief:
Might need to do a full audit of the last few sessions here. Redline is tanking which is pretty unusual for me. The extended bad run might finally be impacting the way I actually play. I'm going to look into it. When you start playing safe and letting passivity creep in, it perpetuates the losing. You become even more reliant on getting dealt the better cards. Could just be a coincidence. We'll see during my upcoming CV reviews.

As frustrating as this run is, it happens to everyone. If you run 9bb/100 under EV for 22k hands, you're probably not going to be winning much in that sample. Last month, I ran 14 buy-ins over EV in 45k hands. This month, I'm 19 buy-ins under EV in 22k hands. It goes both ways.

The key is just maintaining my aggression. I am proven winner in these pools. All that I need to do to turn this around is... change nothing and keep playing. The hard part is to make sure I actually change nothing (nothing substantial anyway -- we all have normal leaks that we can work to correct).

Anyway...

GLGL with your grind, fellas!
WAGMI

I still can't tell who's a bot or not, everybody seems like a real person to me to be honest.

People will say that Super System is outdated and they are simpletons. Super System is timeless. It's knowledge is valuable in today's game I assure you. Doyle discusses concepts that you're already going to be aware of like semi bluffing and simple stuff like that but trust me there is tremendous value in hearing the way that Doyle Brunson describes it.

Where do you live and how old are you if you don't mind me asking? I'm guessing somewhere in the US and I'm guessing you consider yourself older than the general reader here with the "how do you do fellow kids?" comment. So I'm guessing late 30's.

Nice read!

I am 35 and now live in Boston by way of Southern California. Born and raised in Seattle, WA.

12/15: +$2807, +549bb

Tracker:

December:

Today:

Session Debrief:

GLGL with your grind, men!

WAGMI

Nice thread. Will follow

Thanks and welcome aboard!

12/18: +681bb, $2890

Tracker:

December:

Today:

Session Debrief:
This is the only month where I could have a +7 buy-in day and somehow still run under EV. Not that I'm complaining! Don't punish me poker gods! ��

Going forward, I'm going to take both Mon&Tue off to attend to my off-table responsibilities for the CFP. I hope, sometime in the near future, to make one of those days a true off day. Right now, the 7-days-a-week grind needs to continue until I complete one major project (custom Anti-Bot H2N4 config for Team Nacho's).

I forgot that winning ain't so bad. Hopefully we can keep the momentum rolling into the weekend and salvage what's left of this month.

GLGL with your grind, boys!
WAGMI

12/19: -$708, -136bb

Tracker:

December:

Today:

Session Debrief:
26 buy-ins of EV captured this month. Actual buy-ins captured: 4.5.

I'll be back tomorrow for another long session because it is the weekend and that's my job. For the second time this month:

Buddha -- probably

GLGL with your grind!
WAGMI

12/20: +$1304, +118bb

Tracker:

December:

Today:

Session Debrief:

GLGL with your grind!
WAGMI

GL dude, impressive progress in such a short timeframe!
I'm pretty new to this myself, first hand in Augusti 2024.

How much do you consider it being bots and collusion when you run significantly under ev for a long sample?

Thanks! GL to you as well.

I don't think their collusion has *that* big of an impact. When you're running 8bb/100 below EV for 30k+ hands, it cannot be explained by card sharing, IMO. If we're talking a few tenths of a bb, I think collusion can possibly amount to that. We have to keep in mind that, even on tables with two colluding bots (which isn't all of them), there's still three other players who shouldn't be colluding. Believe it or not, even with this run, I am still up something like +0.1bb/100 over EV lifetime on Ignition.

12/21: -$741, -213bb

Tracker:

December:

Today:

Session Debrief:
This month has been... not fun. I don't have a very good relationship with poker right now. However, at the end of the day, I'm still up $3000 and there are worse ways to make $30/hr than sitting at your computer in your sweat pants clicking buttons.

I'm not playing for the thrill of ****ing victory here. I owe rent, alimony, child support... I play for money. My kids eat.

GLGL with your grind, guys.
WAGMI

12/22: +$1858, +462bb

Tracker:

December:

Today:

Session Debrief:

GLGL with your grind!
WAGMI

12/26: +$924, +268bb

Tracker:

December:

Today:

Session Debrief:
After a "difficult" month (I'm up 6k), my poker motivation is at an all-time high. Over Christmas "break", I had an experience that acted as a Roger Bannister breakthrough moment for me. While I know there's some self-help mythology that flies in the face of historicity, the reality is that after Roger Bannister broke the 4-minute-mile "barrier", which was considered physically impossible at the time, more than 2,000 athletes have gone on to break the record in the proceeding 70+ years -- including high school kids. Does that mean anyone can lace up their joggers and have a go at sub-4 mile? Of course not. It does mean that sufficiently talented and dedicated individuals absolutely can, though.

I used to think that beating high stakes for a huge WR was simply impossible. Historical CFP data shows that teams don't really exceed 3-4 EV bb/100 at 2k. My perception on what is possible turns out to be... **wrong**. Not only can it be done, it has been done; it has been done in the pool and in the games I specialize in. I was shown proof.

I'll think more about specific goals during New Years, as I always do, but going into Year 3:

GLGL with your grind, fellas!
~Izzy

12/27: +$77, +420bb

Tracker:

December:

Today:

Session Debrief:

Not impressed with: volume, results, level of play, and myself in general. I need to find a way to unlock a higher level of performance.

GLGL with your grind, boys!
WAGMI

12/28: -$181, -83bb

Tracker:

December:

Today:

Session Debrief:
[Uploading Image...]

Played poo

eserve to win. I was answering messages on Discord the entire session, which isn't a habit I usually struggle with. I don't mean answering playing partners about table alerts or anything like that. I mean I was having full on discussions on other topics and making posts on the Nacho's server.

I have one more session before the New Year. After that, I'm hitting the reset button and taking a 2-3 day break from playing. I will spend several hours alone formulating my vision for 2026. I am really looking forward to that.

I feel like I've stagnated a bit as a player the last few months because I've put **so much** effort into decoding the bots and building tools to beat them. I still have a ways to go until those tools are finished, but, after that, I'm going to figure out a routine to resume becoming a good poker player.

I will not be satisfied churning out WR at mid-stakes. I will get to high stakes and I will be a big winner there. My mind is set on that. Now that I know it is possible nothing else is acceptable.

Enjoy the rest of your holidays folks.

glglgl,
WAGMI

12/29: +$1335, +231bb

Tracker:

December:

Today:

Session Debrief:
In the end, this was my 3rd best month ever:

But, boy, it sure does not feel like it. That's the human brain braining for you.

3rd highest total profit
3rd highest EV bb/100 generated
2nd highest $ EV ever (14k playing solely midstakes)

......

#1 most disappointing month of all-time.

Stupid brain.

The reality, though, is that I have become a much better anti-bot player in the last three months. It is to the point where I've gone from a mediocre grinder to absolutely crushing the games. In Year 3, the main focus is leveling up again and taking my *skills* to another level so we can replicate these kinds of results at high stakes (to whatever degree that's possible for me, personally).

I am looking forward to the challenge. I cannot guarantee results, but I can guarantee that you may never see anyone work as hard as I'm going to work to get to 2k and crush next year. That much I do guarantee.

That's all for this year, though.

Final tally: ~+$54,000, +~20,400bb, ~1500 grind hours logged, ~$36/hr

I can't say I'm disappointed with my first full year as a pro. I can do better, though. A lot better... Next year, we blow all these metrics out of the water. Count on it. Betting on me is +EV.

Enjoy New Year's everyone!

Here's to crushing 2026, ��

WAGMI

2026 New Year's Resolutions and Goals!

2025 Goals and Resolutions: A Failure of Prioritization
My goals for 2025 were all about balance which I achieved... for about two months. I started a regular meditation practice and even attended a Buddhist Monastery, I picked up BJJ, and I read at least one major philosophical text per week. It didn't take long before my obsessive nature took over. I found myself training for BJJ 2-3x per day by the time summer hit. I entered multiple competitions, placed 1st or 2nd in all, but the trade-off was that I was spending less and less time on poker. From February to May, I played about 30k hands. That's not even close to a normal *monthly* workload for me and I wasn't making it up with off-table work. During that three month stretch I was, unsurprisingly, performing extremely poorly. I had a bit of a "come to Jesus" moment with my wife that ultimately led to me deciding to scale back on BJJ. In the end, I unintentionally quit because all of my energy and focus went back into poker. While I will probably never love poker the way I love playing and competing in sports, my inclinations and natural advantages are far better suited to poker success than athletic success. At my age (34), I can no longer really afford to pour my soul into sports that are never going to result in serious financial rewards.

Recommitting
I fully recommitted myself to the Poker grind in June and quickly went from floating between 100-200nl to establishing myself at 500nl and even shooting 1k multiple times. Since June, I made $50,000 and played 281k hands in 1200 hours of grind. My off-table hours weren't much lower than that. Between June and the end of the year, I took less than 7 total days off from work and averaged 8-10 hours of poker-related activity per day. I don't think I was very far off from averaging 300 hours a month between playing and studying. While that workload is almost certainly unsustainable long-term, I simply have no interest in telling myself that I'm going to be balanced in 2026. I am not. Poker is going to dominate my world in 2026.

2026 Goals and Resolutions
Resolutions
Between my income, my wife's income, and our real estate investments, we're in the best financial position we've been in in a long time. So while I don't have any desire to be fully "balanced" in 2026, we've both committed to doing/attending one cool "thing" per month. Starting today, we're going to Matt Rife's comedy show at TD Garden. For the rest of the year, at least once a month, we're going to attend one "thing" that we can look forward to each month whether that is a concert, a sportsball game, or a trip up the coast to Cape Cod.

Goals
That said, 2026 is going to be about poker for me. The main goals that I have are:

• 1. Finish development Nacho's suite of Anti-Bot Tools including: the Bot Crusher H2N4 pop-up and the aliases
  
• 2. Recruit 6+ new players into Nacho's Ignition team & grow the public Ignition HH exchange to 6+ members (~1 person / 2 months).
  
• 3. 1500+ grind hours, 1000+ study hours, 500k+ hands played, $100k+ total profits, establish myself as a winning 1k reg (3+ EV bb/100), take my first shots at 2k
  
• 4. Seek out and find a long-term high stakes coach to help me get to and eventually become a winning 2k reg
  

Moving Forward
I am extremely optimistic about 2026. My goals are simple, straight forward, and measurable... even if they aren't going to be easy to achieve. Regardless, I am up to the challenge and I remain confident both in myself as an individual and an as a poker player. That confidence comes from knowing that my level of work ethic matches the level of my aspirations.

My grandpa used to say, "Most people don't recognize opportunity because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work". He was a dairy farmer and he'd know a thing or two about real hard work. Clicking buttons in my sweat pants hardly compares, but, hey, someone's gotta do it!

Here's to crushing 2026, fellas!

WAGMI

Love the yearly review and resolutions. Hyped to follow in 2026! Can't wait to see you crush 1k, and I'm so excited to see your stabs at 2k!

What skills or traits did you develop before getting into poker that helped you out?
What do you look for when recruiting new players?
Is volume of play enough to make it?
What's your recommended training software for intermediate online players?

You're so back, December was just keeping you on your toes! Keep Grinding!

Glgl!