Results Tracking and Undeserved Optimism

Last night's 5/10 session was my first one back after 2 weeks off, and was the first of the challenge.

+11 hours, +1350.

Went well overall, felt comfortable and happy with my play overall but a couple of spots I wasn't sure about and a couple of hands of note to share.

Hand #1

5/10 2.3k effective

I'm in the BB with 54hh. BTN (ok reg) opens to 30. I just call.

-Could 3bet, could call. I don't think this player type folds enough to 3bet (tighter opening range, also prob calls too often to 3bet with marginal holdings) so I just call.

Pot is 65 Flop Kh 7s 3c I check (obv), BTN bets 20, I raise to 65, he calls

- think this villain will range bet this type of board and overfold to small checkraise. Also this is a very intuitive check raise anyway.

Turn is 4s Pot is 195, I bet 250 he calls

- hit a pair but won't really have showdown. This turn is really good for my check raising range as well as bad for his calling range and I want to bet big and often. Also still have equity in the gutter and also hitting potential 2 pair or trips.

River is 5c Pot is 695, I bet 250, he TANK folds

- this is what I'm least sure about. Have no real idea how much my hand is worth on the river here. Thought in game it was worth a block bet to get a crying call from some Kx so I go for that.

Hand #2

5/10 2.5k effective vs all villains

I open KQss in the CO to 30, BTN (good live reg) 3bets to 90, BB ( Loose Passive Fish ) calls, I 4bet to 350, only BTN calls

- BTN 3bets fairly wide here and BB cold call is super capped from this player specifically (at best AQo, or 99 but lots of JTs, 88, A9s sort of stuff). Against just the BTN 3bet KQs can mix in some 4bets already. With the BB in there I like it even more. When BTN calls I think he has a fairly legit range (he will play reasonably pre).

Pot is 800ish Flop is 832r (one spade) I bet 200, he calls

- seems normal for 4bet pot on board where overpairs = nuts

Pot is 1200 Turn is Kd, I check he checks

- Wet dream of a turn. Can't get 2 streets of value here from underpairs to the K and he can't really have worse Kx. Seems like an intuitive check

Pot is 1200 River is Kd I bet 400, he calls and we show the winner.

- Not sure what size is best, getting value form 99-QQ that play this way

Please note, I do not play all my hands this way. These were just the interesting hands in unique situations i come across. No I do not 4bet KQs all the time etc. 90% of winning poker is going to be boring, "standard", tight aggressive poker. Occasionally there are spots where blasting makes sense, and I will try to justify my punts here.

That was it for memorable hands from the session. A couple things I plan on working on in greater detail are making more specific and detailed player notes in future sessions, and also basic revision of key spots in GTOwiz (including dealing with different open sizes) to stay sharp

I will also begin a counter of profit and hours played at the bottom starting now.

Hours: 11
Profit: 1350

The hours per week element challenge will begin at the beginning of next week. I will average 20 hours per week or playing volume, and 5 hours of study volume wherever possible.

Typically, the most common stake I play is 2/5, and maybe I'll mix in some 5/10 when the game is running and/or good on the weekends. I currently feel like one of the best 2/5 regs in my pool (averaging $55 an hour in a smallish market the past 18 months should hint at that), but I feel there is more room for improvement in my play against regs. I can 2x pot overbet vs a fish with the nuts like the best of 'em, but improvement is needed in my ability to generate winrate vs mediocre regs. I think I am winning in my play vs all but one player in the 2/5 pool (imo a very solid 5/10 player), but small little exploits vs especially weaker regs can certainly boost my winrate.

This will mean being much more attentive to spots where regs are over-cbetting (range betting where they shouldn't, cbetting OOP when they shouldn't etc), and spots where they are overfolding after being so used to playing against a population which underbluffs.

Look for some big turn and river overbets and lots of flop check-raising in hand histories to come.

Also, just setting out my schedule for the future, it will generally look something like:
1 Weekday session (Monday or Tuesday) - 2/5
2 Weekend sessions (Typically Friday and Sunday) - 2/5, or if the game is good 5/10

Excited to begin documenting my journey from here

Good luck, and I look forward to following your thread and rooting you on! Good for you for having the confidence to focus and take poker seriously as a source of income, especially at such a young age! I can tell by reading your first few posts that you have the aptitude for it. It took me years of tracking my play while playing "recreationally" before I could overcome my limiting beliefs and go for it as a serious source of income.

A couple thoughts on your hands: My deep stack game is a little rusty as I have been mainly focusing on MTTs, so take this with a grain of salt.

Hand 1:

I like the way you played it, given your description. I'm assuming it must be time raked given the preflop call.

You might be able to go bigger (like 2/3 pot?) on the river given that he will have very few straights. You might value own yourself occasionally but I think you can likely merge some two-pair into your larger bet value range. Also in live poker sometimes you oddly get called more by Kx with the larger size as it looks bluffier.

Hand 2:

Pre: Not sure I like the 4-bet. I would prefer to call and keep the fish in the hand. It's also relevant that you have good relative position. On the flop you can check to the raiser and you're able to see what both players do before you have to act.

Turn: As played I think I would be mostly betting here. If so this hand would likely be the absolute bottom of my "value" range. If I'm bluffing the K is a card I'm going to want to barrel so I want to balance with stronger hands too. If called I plan to mainly check/call river depending on sizing.

I think the check is fine though. Betting is thin and can lead to some difficult spots so sometimes the safe play is best.

Anyway good luck and keep crushing!

Hey man, best of luck.

Thanks for the support! Kinda just stumbled into poker as an income source by accident. Had played online a bunch for a few years going up to 100nl and started playing live, and didn't have a job. Continued that way for a few months before I started taking it more seriously.

For hand 1, I agree he doesn't have many straights, but also fnd it hard to believe worse hands will call the bigger size. For hand 2, I am happy to get the fish out, and take the dead money from a really capped range. I either always get him to fold and take his potshare for free, or at worst I think I'm flipping when he calls ( player specific read on his range). Think call is also +EV obviously.

Thanks, I'll try to post at least once a week.

I really like that play with 54s, BB still has a lot of Kx and sets to raise with on flop, probably a ton of folds especially if it's overstabbed. Good aggression too on later streets. Right on

Initial run good continues + 7 hours, + 910 at 2/5

2/5 was kinda meh today so wasn't going in with high expectations but it did not disappoint. It sounds silly but when there's a whale in the game I feel like strategies become a bit boring - largely leaning towards linear value at all times since the whale is in the pot so often - but when the table is all weak regs and nitfish, and you are the only decent reg (not a brag, just a low bar of folding QJo from early position that seemingly is impossible for others to do), potential exploits become much more interesting.

Feel I played really well, and didn't even pick up premiums, just won a disproportionate amount of small pots. Lots of late position opens/isos, lots of aggressive cbetting and turn barrelling vs capped and entirely too wide BB ranges, etc you get the idea. Not really doing anything special.

Something I do want to become more aware of is live tells.
Initially coming from an online background I still feel like I'm still missing out on a bunch of edge coming from this. The live tells I've picked up already have been really, really helpful. People telegraphing their folds preflop and in multiway pots means I have been able to open wider, cbet wider and alltogether play a more aggressive style with more clarity and assurance that I'm already getting lots of folds. There was a funny fish I was playing with on Friday, who would always just hold his cards in his hand when he was close between folding and calling. So safe to say when he did that on the flop and preflop it set up for some big bluffs (that was actually the origin of the KQs 4bet in my previous hand history and I realise now it wasn't mentioned in the hand history). Also set me up well for a nice triple barrel vs him. So looking to incorporate more of that. I feel like I am already top-notch (when compared to a live 2/5 or 5/10 pool that is subpar again not a brag) at a more theoretical approach to the game in most common spots, but that any further edge I get will be derived from going max exploits and max live reads. I will read up on some of this, but I think the best way to improve is to just play more volume, but specifically more conscious, observant volume. This is also where I will try to devote some study to in the meantime.

Hand History for the session:
2/5 1.5k deep

Somehow folds to BTN (first time this session), BTN (non-descript weak reg) raises to 15, I call in BB with 5h5s

Pot is 32 Flop comes Ah3s2c I check, BTN bets 10, I raise to 50, BTN folds

Not an overly complicated hand history but I'm really happy with how I played it. Preflop obvious, but flop I'm really happy with the exploits that I think are printing here. This kind of weak reg is prone to dramatically over c-bet this board because "it's A high I can range bet" kind of nonsense logic, when on this sort of A low low board he should be checking a lot because he just has lots of broadway cards that completely whiff, and I can have lots of Ax, 2x, 3x, two pairs, straights. He still has advantage, but has to be careful. Believe it or not, on this board GTOwiz plays a decent leading range here! I think villain is dramatically over c-betting (potentially even range betting), and check raise just denies infinite equity from all the two overcard hands that can't continue, which will be a LOT of his range. I'm happy that I didn't just mindlessly, instinctivelycall here because I have middling showdown, to find the best play. I think theory would mix occasional raise with this hand, and I'm really glad I went for it.

Hours: 18
Profit: 2260

Thanks! I'm really trying to have much more aggression in lots of these spots, and not fall into the live poker trap like I used to of just waiting for good hands to stack the fish. There are overfolded spots all over the place!

Pretty boring, card dead 2/5 session. 4 hours, -180.

Just not a single eventful hand, literally the best hand I got in 4 hours was KJs, and went I open, 3 calls and I miss flop and give up. Left after 4 hours because I had a mandatory attendance class the next morning and mental game was slightly slipping after literally VPIPing 3 times in 4 hours. I won't bore you guys with a hand history.

Will continue with the proper grind on the weekend, but some light poker study going well in the meantime.

Results since 29 August 25:
Hours: 22
Profit: 2080

Sometimes it's a win to play disciplined and lose 180 when you're running bad and could have punted off 1000.

Interesting hand history from previous session going for potentially too thin value:

Playing 2/5 with straddle to 10 on, roughly 900 effective with villain (non descript reg)

I open AQdd on the BTN to 30, straddle calls - obv

Pot is 67, flop Qc 7d 2s, I bet 20, STR calls - seems like a standard range-bet 1/3 spot

Pot is 107 turn 5h, he checks I bet 150, he calls - playing this as overbet or check, blank turn where I have nuts advantage, AQ is clear, pure overbet for value

Pot is 407, river Kd, he checks, I bet 250, he tank folds
- this is where the hand goes off the rails. I believe this will be a pure check in theory in this spot, but I think I can exploitatively go for thin value. Weaker regs will over-fastplay their value on earlier streets and not have enough trapped sets or two pairs, nor river checkraises to punish me for thin value. Also, what actually improves on this river? No draws get there, the only hands that really improve are KQo (he might 3bet this pre anyway), and K7 (also very unlikely), but feels like he just has INFINITE worse Qx to get medium value from. Not sure, could be extremely easily convinced that it's too thin.

Exactly my thoughts

I've made similar value bets before, but I think I would want to have some sort of more specific read to go for it here. Like either he's a known calling station or he views me as being a maniac, something like that.

I agree he should have a lot of Qx, but the question is whether he will pay off with them? After the turn overbet I don't think you're going to get called too often by Qx on this river. You'll probably be using a lot of Kx as turn bluffs (no flush draws, so you often want an over card to the queen, and you'll be playing a lot of your Ax for showdown value). Other than straight draws I would imagine your second most numerous bluffs would be Kx combos? So from his perspective the K is a pretty bad card if he has a queen.

Anyway I lean towards value betting too thinly myself at times, and I likely check back here by default. There's also the danger of reopening the action and getting check-raised, which is not nothing even if your read is right that a check raise is unlikely.

I mean I did have a tight and very aggressive image. Yes you're right a LOT of my bluffs will have Kx or weaker Ax in them, so yes K or A are the really bad cards for him to see. At the same time, if I think my hand is good often enough (like I think it will be here), I'm just going to bet and hope he calls. I also do have a habit of going razor thin for value but I think you can get away with that playing live when people call too often with bad hands and don't check raise bluff at all.

Yeah seems fine against the right player type. I guess I'm just challenging you to dial in your read, "non descript reg," a little more.

fair, I am trying to get into the habit of more detailed note making. At the time I had played with this guy for 5 hours. Just seemed to play reasonable pre, and hadnt seen anything absurd from him postflop. But yes, need to make more detailed notes especially on regulars and common fish in the pool

Got some more hours in +6 hours, +360.

Getting in another run of the mill 2/5 session, 10 hours so far this week, looking to get a couple of weekend sessions in to round it off up to 20.

Feeling good, playing good, not sure I have too much to say. Again, no coolers, just picking up lots of small and medium pots with timely aggression, which I feel the increased focus on notes making and live tells have helped. It is occasionally easy for me to slip back into my online poker habits of playing a roughly theoretically correct strategy, but that's not what live poker is about. When I began the switch to live after turning 18 (gambling age where I am in the UK), I was far too robotic and tight in my play, and sometimes when lazy and not careful it is easy to slip back into that. Actually focusing on live tells and adjusting on the extremes to fish and weak regs has boosted my winrate by a long way, and I realise there is a long path to go when I see some things veteran live regs do. They may lose a bunch back to tight, theoretically sound regs, but my god do they win the max off of the fish. The kind who flat Q7s on the BTN to a fish raise and proceed to stack them in some nonsense fashion. Now am I going to flat Q7s on the BTN? No, but seeing this sort of stuff from the same sorts of people every time makes me realise there are lessons still to be learned in mastering live poker.

My interesting hand history from the session (again perhaps too thin for value):

2/5 1.1k deep

I open JJ UTG to 15, HJ 3bets to 50, I call

- preflop seems entirely standard. HJ is a competent recreational, who plays reasonably well in most spots, but slightly too loose and calls slightly too often. 4betting never an option here this early of a position.

Pot is 107 Flop 4d 5c 6d I check, he checks

- I actually considered leading here for like 20 seconds (it is a legit play given my sets, low overpair advantage compared to his broadway cards), however I think this player will over-cbet this flop so leading doesnt make sense. I check.

Pot is 107 Turn Ah check, check

- Think check is the only option here. Self explanatory

Pot is 107 River 2c, I bet 30, he calls, I show and win

- Perhaps too thin on the river? Targetting TT, 99, 88, 67s, and potentially K high type hands. IDK what he had but he called and I won so it can't be that bad of a bet. I guess the question is how often he might check an A back on the turn (the Ax he had will either be 2 pair - A4s, A5s - and bet, or strong Ax - AJ, AQ, AK - and likely bet), or a hand like KK, QQ back on the flop (unlikely imo). Either way curious on thoughts about the play.

In game this felt very thin but happy I went for it.

Results since 29 August 25:
Hours: 28
Profit: 2440

Another day, another dub. +6 hours, +680. Running well, playing well, what more could I ask for?

Starting to re-enter my groove, working well and going for thin value, bluffs all over the place and playing strong, aggressive poker. Unfortunately going to have to lock in on some uni assignments for a couple of weeks from next week, so reduced hours will ensue. Still trying to get minimum 10 hours per week, and 5 studying, but have to prioritise my future career and uni trajectory beyond how many hours I stare at red and black rectangles each week.

Interesting hand history that was the source of the big W:

2/5 500 effectve

Big fish opens LJ to 15, I call on the BTN with 5c6c, folds around.

- Anyone who tells you to fold here on the btn vs a big fish should be shot by firing squad. Against a big fish, 3betting makes less sense since I don't think I get many folds, and have to play a big pot with 6 high vs a man whose fold button is getting dusty.

Pot 37 Flop is As Ks 5d, Big fish bets 10, I call.

- Seems standard. can't fold yet. Against good players I will mix in occasional raises with this hand class, but now is certainly not the time for that.

Pot 57 Turn is 5h Big fish checks I bet 80, he calls.

- Pretty simple, just trying to stack an A that will never fold.

Pot is 217 River 2c, he checks, I jam for 400ish, he calls and we win 😀 I see too many people bet like 2/3 on the turn and 2/3 on the river, missing out on about 300 of value. That's pretty big to a winrate if done even once every few sessions.

Looking to keep momentum going with one more session this week.
]Results since 29 August 25:
Hours: 34
Profit: 3125

I will post the rest of my session at some point, but it's going meh rn 4 hours in, -100 just slowly bleeding out, but nothing horrendous happened so far. Just card dead.
Have VPIPed 10 hands in 4 hours, and taking a 10 minute break now to get my head straight and focus again.

Here's the one interesting hand thus far, keep in mind writing this very quickly so ignore poor formatting, lack of analysis.
2/5 1k effective CO fish raise 15, I 3bet TT on BTN to 50, SB unknown 4bets to 100, I call. Think pretty clearly by this sizing 200bb deep OOP SB is a fish, literally first hand ive played with him but no reg would size this way.
flop 422r check check. turn 4 complete rainbow check check. river 7 check, I bet 80 into 220 ish, he folds. I think this guy literally never has us beat here so tried to milk AK.

Apart from this i've lost every other pot and just bled out 15-20 at a time from just not hitting flops in multiway pots and having no way to do anything. The grind continues in 10 minutes.

I like the river bet OOP. You may not even win 50% when called, and the EV could still be higher than checking. You also gain EV by limiting the damage when you're beat, as a lot of Ax will just call but would go for a bigger bet if checked to. That's presuming you're check calling. If you're check folding betting also makes it less likely that you get bluffed off of the winning hand.

IP I check back river.

You might want to shoot, but I likely fold pre. You never said for sure whether they rake the pot or whether it's time rake where you play? If it's time rake I think the call is probably fine, but if they're raking 7 or 8 bucks from every pot the preflop call is likely to be -EV. Trust me these are the types of calls I used to make, and my win rate went way up after cutting them out.

Otherwise I like the way you played the rest of the hand. See how you needed the perfect confluence of factors to stack him though? You had to hit trips AND have him hit his ace. You're just going to bleed off chips too often when you miss. Even when you make a big hand you'll end up winning a small pot a lot because he doesn't have much, and occasionally you'll get coolered too.

Disagree. I think vs a big fish flatting is fine. It is pot-raked, but not anything crazy like a california drop. With live rake preflop from GTOwiz, that is similar but slightly worse rake to my game, it is a mix of all 3 options having negligible EV. With skill edge in position seems like call works well. I'm not thrilled, but I do think it makes $.

A hand like this reflects why I can do this, when I have a good hand I will very efficiently pile money in when ahead, often get thinner value, and when I'm behind it'll often be extremely clear with fish play often signalling exact hand strength. Again, do I think this play makes more than a BB? no, but it still makes a profit and small spots like this not only add incrementally to your winrate, but also add to an image as someone who isn't just a nit, and boosting my winrate incrementally in other spots where people will give me slightly more action.

I guess it could be OK with fish factor, considering you're 200 BB deep.

That being said, I think GTO wizard mainly just calls for board coverage, and I don't think it factors in jackpot drop. Where I play the 2/5 games rake $6 + $3 jackpot drop. I don't know how your games compare, but when almost 2 bigs are coming out of each pot it unfortunately forces you to play like a nit if you want to maximize profits.

yeah rake where I am is 5% up to 10 (so 2bb at 2/5) with no drop, and at the other local it is fairly similar as well with i think a 1 pound drop. Drops completely **** things up and yes in those circumstances playing extra nitty is certainly necessary, and is often the way i go as well even in lower rake.

will post a full session breakdown at some point, lots of interesting hands happened in the last couple hours and some swings were had but Im busy studying and cbf to write it up rn.