$25----->25k Bankroll Challenge on Ignition

What do you think of BU's play?

Today's Video is on this concept and his brother. C-X-Jam.

Good in general but bad vs players who know MDA.

The triple barrel lines on 3BW river are very strong, much stronger than theory.

Villain tank called AQ.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($27.95) [VPIP: 18.5% | PFR: 17.2% | AGG: 46.2% | Hands: 1049]
SB ($12.66) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 4]
BB ($53.76) [VPIP: 26.4% | PFR: 18.3% | AGG: 36.1% | Hands: 213]
UTG ($54.11) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 13.6% | AGG: 38.1% | Hands: 45]
HJ ($30.37) [VPIP: 28.6% | PFR: 25% | AGG: 25% | Flop Agg: 25% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 50% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 29]
HERO ($29.32) [VPIP: 28.5% | PFR: 23.5% | AGG: 37.1% | Flop Agg: 38.1% | Turn Agg: 35.1% | River Agg: 42.8% | 3Bet: 10.4% | Fold to 3Bet: 55.2% | 4Bet: 11.8% | Hands: 175372]

Dealt to Hero: 9♠ K♠

UTG Folds, HJ Raises To $0.55, HERO Raises To $1.83, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Folds, HJ Calls $1.28

Hero SPR on Flop: [6.86 effective]
Flop ($4.01): 5♥ A♦ Q♦
HJ Checks, HERO Bets $0.75 (Rem. Stack: $26.74), HJ Calls $0.75 (Rem. Stack: $27.79)

Turn ($5.51): 5♥ A♦ Q♦ 7♣
HJ Checks, HERO Bets $6.41 (Rem. Stack: $20.33), HJ Calls $6.41 (Rem. Stack: $21.38)

River ($18.33): 5♥ A♦ Q♦ 7♣ J♥
HJ Checks, HERO Bets $20.33 (allin), HJ Calls $20.33 (Rem. Stack: $1.05)

I should fold this river in retrospect.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($30) [VPIP: 16% | PFR: 12.4% | AGG: 36.5% | Flop Agg: 22.7% | Turn Agg: 36.8% | River Agg: 63.6% | 3Bet: 7.6% | Fold to 3Bet: 66.7% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 201]
SB ($49.21) [VPIP: 20% | PFR: 16.3% | AGG: 34.4% | Hands: 3504]
BB ($25) [VPIP: 20.9% | PFR: 17.2% | AGG: 42.1% | Hands: 1831]
HERO ($39.88) [VPIP: 28.5% | PFR: 23.5% | AGG: 37.1% | Flop Agg: 38.1% | Turn Agg: 35.1% | River Agg: 42.8% | 3Bet: 10.4% | 4Bet: 11.8% | Hands: 175372]
HJ ($30) [VPIP: 21.3% | PFR: 17.6% | AGG: 37.3% | Hands: 1200]
CO ($30) [VPIP: 23.3% | PFR: 17.8% | AGG: 17.5% | Hands: 153]

Dealt to Hero: Q♥ Q♠

HERO Raises To $0.50, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Raises To $1.55, SB Folds, BB Folds, HERO Calls $1.05

Hero SPR on Flop: [8.25 effective]
Flop ($3.45): 8♠ J♣ 6♦
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $0.75 (Rem. Stack: $27.70), HERO Calls $0.75 (Rem. Stack: $37.58)

Turn ($4.95): 8♠ J♣ 6♦ 2♣
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $4.31 (Rem. Stack: $23.39), HERO Calls $4.31 (Rem. Stack: $33.27)

River ($13.57): 8♠ J♣ 6♦ 2♣ T♦
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $10.17 (Rem. Stack: $13.22), HERO Calls $10.17 (Rem. Stack: $23.10)

Looks like a pretty standard call and see what happens on river spot since this spot is something like 80%+ 2p plus for OOP?

So you are calling turn and then folding to a jam if the river doesn’t pair the board or we hit a Queen?

My problem with this strategy is if he has a set we are 5%. And if he has 2 pair and we are calling all paired rivers then he is jamming value always but not necessarily always when he gets counterfeited.

I asked AI about this hand. Here were the top 23 hands in terms of probability for my opponent.

Probably best just to muck them, turn min raise is super nutted even more so after calling flop raise.

You have equity vs his value hands, but I don't think that's enough to call.

What is this AI?

Yeah I think muck turn although the AI loves jamming so I'm not sure. I need to do more research on this spot with MDA

It's a predictive poker model that uses neural networks with artificial intelligence. I've been talking to the developer for a few weeks and running hands by him.

In a lot of spots the model completely alligns with MDA, I have been impressed so far.

I'm not 100% sure, but being IP I think we have enough ways to win to be able to call the turn because of pot odds.

Is it publicly available?

Yeah I'm not sure on the best play either, it really seems like call/fold/jam are all options.

No it's just 1 guy working on it and he isn't done yet. I think it is the future of poker though because it gives a lot of preflop plays and deviations from GTO.

Basically we think of preflop as a static street in general compared to flop/turn/river but we should making huge deviations based on opponents. This model really helps with that. It's also good for fish play and rare spots that MDA can't cover.

Okay results and AI explanation for why jamming turn is the best play.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($43.98) [VPIP: 33.3% | PFR: 25% | AGG: 37.5% | Hands: 13]
SB ($57.16) [VPIP: 18.4% | PFR: 16.3% | AGG: 72.7% | Hands: 51]
BB ($26.23) [VPIP: 41.2% | PFR: 23.5% | AGG: 54.5% | Flop Agg: 66.7% | Turn Agg: 50% | River Agg: 0% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 37.5% | Hands: 17]
UTG ($26.94) [VPIP: 22.9% | PFR: 18.1% | AGG: 37.5% | Hands: 2163]
HJ ($27.98) [VPIP: 22.5% | PFR: 14.7% | AGG: 25% | Hands: 195]
HERO ($27.19) [VPIP: 28.5% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 37.1% | Flop Agg: 38.1% | Turn Agg: 35.2% | River Agg: 42.8% | 3Bet: 10.4% | 4Bet: 11.8% | Hands: 175961]

Dealt to Hero: Q♥ Q♣

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $0.55, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.30

Hero SPR on Flop: [21.4 effective]
Flop ($1.20): 8♥ 3♣ 9♥
BB Bets $0.62 (Rem. Stack: $25.06), HERO Raises To $2.45 (Rem. Stack: $24.19), BB Calls $1.83 (Rem. Stack: $23.23)

Turn ($6.10): 8♥ 3♣ 9♥ 2♦
BB Checks, HERO Bets $4.57 (Rem. Stack: $19.62), BB Raises To $9.84 (Rem. Stack: $13.39), HERO Raises To $24.19 (allin), BB Calls $13.39 (allin)

River ($53.52): 8♥ 3♣ 9♥ 2♦ 6♣

Again, I am not 100% convinced jamming is the best play but it's good to see other opinions. I'll work on getting MDA for this spot as well.

Mandatory daily plug.

How to play Fish as 4BP OOP PFR based on MDA.

(hint. Stop ranging).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nHrLEXqD...

You don't have 63% against river jam for sure, but could be useful program in the future.

96: 44
97: 65
98: your mom
99: 3♦ 2♥

Maybe, but I'm not into jamming this strength of hand against a fish and into a range that has so much 2p+ or a big draw after there has been a lot of aggression. I think I would need to know that they play top pair this way really often for me to think jamming is better than calling.

I do think its inaccurate in some spots but agreed on the future.

Bad bluff if he is calling this hand down. But I got my GTO Wizard training score up.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($29.31) [VPIP: 22.9% | PFR: 18.5% | AGG: 28.8% | Hands: 421]
SB ($26.57) [VPIP: 21.3% | PFR: 18.8% | AGG: 40.5% | Hands: 982]
HERO ($34.95) [VPIP: 28.4% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 37.1% | Flop Agg: 38.1% | Turn Agg: 35.1% | River Agg: 42.8% | 3Bet: 10.4% | 4Bet: 11.8% | Cold Call: 10.8% | Hands: 176839]
UTG ($47.11) [VPIP: 19.8% | PFR: 14% | AGG: 35.3% | Flop Agg: 42.9% | Turn Agg: 20% | River Agg: 40% | 3Bet: 3.7% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 88]
HJ ($32.01) [VPIP: 18.3% | PFR: 13.6% | AGG: 42.9% | Hands: 1816]
CO ($25) [VPIP: 22.5% | PFR: 18.5% | AGG: 34.1% | Hands: 155]

Dealt to Hero: 6♥ 3♥

UTG Raises To $0.60, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, HERO Calls $0.35

Hero SPR on Flop: [26.42 effective]
Flop ($1.30): 6♦ 2♣ 4♠
HERO Bets $0.32 (Rem. Stack: $34.03), UTG Raises To $1.54 (Rem. Stack: $44.97), HERO Raises To $3.76 (Rem. Stack: $30.59), UTG Calls $2.22 (Rem. Stack: $42.75)

Turn ($8.82): 6♦ 2♣ 4♠ J♣
HERO Bets $6.61 (Rem. Stack: $23.98), UTG Calls $6.61 (Rem. Stack: $36.14)

River ($22.04): 6♦ 2♣ 4♠ J♣ 8♦
HERO Bets $23.98 (allin), UTG Calls $23.98 (Rem. Stack: $12.16)

A lot of MDA in this video. Hand History below

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8v-50Ez...

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 2(BB)
HERO ($241.60) [VPIP: 29.5% | PFR: 24.4% | AGG: 36.6% | Flop Agg: 41.2% | Turn Agg: 33.8% | River Agg: 38% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 13.5% | Hands: 351597]
BTN ($204.45) [VPIP: 12.5% | PFR: 6.3% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 17]
SB ($200) [VPIP: 26.7% | PFR: 20% | AGG: 57.1% | Hands: 15]
BB ($226.67) [VPIP: 34.8% | PFR: 34.8% | AGG: 58.3% | Flop Agg: 60% | Turn Agg: 50% | River Agg: 66.7% | 3Bet: 42.9% | Fold to 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 24]
UTG ($800.63) [VPIP: 30% | PFR: 23.3% | AGG: 46.2% | Hands: 32]
HJ ($200) [VPIP: 21.7% | PFR: 17.4% | AGG: 16.7% | Hands: 23]

Dealt to Hero: 9♣ 9♥

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $5, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Raises To $22, HERO Calls $17

Hero SPR on Flop: [4.55 effective]
Flop ($45): 6♠ J♦ 5♠
BB Bets $14.11 (Rem. Stack: $190.56), HERO Calls $14.11 (Rem. Stack: $205.49)

Turn ($73.22): 6♠ J♦ 5♠ 7♣
BB Bets $45.91 (Rem. Stack: $144.65), HERO Calls $45.91 (Rem. Stack: $159.58)

River ($165.04): 6♠ J♦ 5♠ 7♣ 5♥
BB Bets $144.65 (allin), HERO ?

Two unrelated questions:

(1) While you had a number of data points favouring a call, the gap between GTO and MDA frequencies in each of them was relatively small. Is this a concern?

(2) Why are paired rivers overbluffed compared to paired turns?

1. Since poker is a game of incomplete information we won’t be able to know for sure but we can make educated guesses based on multiple data points.

We also see trends from other positions over good sample sizes that help us be more confident in calling or folding.

2. Because of perception and also how ranges work. If my opponent double barrels then most non top pair will fold OTT so when the pair comes OTR it’s less of a concern in my opponents mind. The same is not true for a paired turn since I am calling all pairs on the flop.

Interestingly, river BW top pair is also overbluffed. My pet theory is my opponents preflop range will usually double block top pair so they think their hand is a good bluffing candidate and overdo it.

Video that explains this hand and 2 important Reg MDA principles.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
HERO ($25) [VPIP: 28.5% | PFR: 23.4% | AGG: 37% | Flop Agg: 37.9% | Turn Agg: 35.1% | River Agg: 42.8% | 3Bet: 10.4% | 4Bet: 11.7% | Hands: 178478]
SB ($28.04) [VPIP: 31.4% | PFR: 22.9% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 37]
BB ($26.22) [VPIP: 24.6% | PFR: 19.9% | AGG: 27.3% | Flop Agg: 31.3% | Turn Agg: 25.5% | River Agg: 25.7% | 3Bet: 7.6% | 4Bet: 12.9% | Cold Call: 10.6% | Hands: 1705]
UTG ($28.54) [VPIP: 27.8% | PFR: 18.5% | AGG: 35.3% | Hands: 221]
HJ ($29.33) [VPIP: 20.5% | PFR: 14.9% | AGG: 29.8% | Hands: 166]
CO ($36.63) [VPIP: 26.6% | PFR: 23% | AGG: 30.3% | Hands: 948]

Dealt to Hero: K♦ K♣

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $0.60, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.35

Hero SPR on Flop: [18.77 effective]
Flop ($1.30): 7♠ T♠ 2♦
BB Checks, HERO Bets $0.97 (Rem. Stack: $23.43), BB Calls $0.97 (Rem. Stack: $24.65)

Turn ($3.24): 7♠ T♠ 2♦ 6♦
BB Checks, HERO Checks

River ($3.24): 7♠ T♠ 2♦ 6♦ A♥
BB Checks, HERO Bets $2.43 (Rem. Stack: $21), BB Raises To $24.65 (allin), HERO Calls $21 (allin)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aFENdMVj...

why are you playing nl25?

you are making like 5$/hour, even less when u factor in the study. whats the end goal bruh

He is following BRM and does not have the roll to move up, and does not have outside money to deposit due to some unfortunate financial events he faced.

SB limping strategy is still in the womb.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($25.65) [VPIP: 19.7% | PFR: 15.6% | AGG: 46.2% | Hands: 150]
HERO ($39.43) [VPIP: 28.5% | PFR: 23.5% | AGG: 37% | Flop Agg: 37.9% | Turn Agg: 35.1% | River Agg: 42.8% | 3Bet: 10.4% | 4Bet: 11.7% | Hands: 179539]
BB ($31.72) [VPIP: 28.6% | PFR: 26.2% | AGG: 31.6% | Flop Agg: 25% | Turn Agg: 16.7% | River Agg: 60% | 3Bet: 6.7% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 45]
UTG ($72.95) [VPIP: 16.1% | PFR: 0.5% | AGG: 32.7% | Hands: 192]
HJ ($33.92) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 25% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 4]
CO ($70.47) [VPIP: 18.2% | PFR: 18.2% | AGG: 100% | Hands: 22]

Dealt to Hero: Q♣ 9♣

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, HERO Calls $0.15, BB Raises To $1.25, HERO Calls $1

Hero SPR on Flop: [12.19 effective]
Flop ($2.50): Q♠ 2♥ 9♠
HERO Checks, BB Bets $0.62 (Rem. Stack: $29.85), HERO Calls $0.62 (Rem. Stack: $37.56)

Turn ($3.74): Q♠ 2♥ 9♠ 4♦
HERO Checks, BB Bets $5.61 (Rem. Stack: $24.24), HERO Calls $5.61 (Rem. Stack: $31.95)

River ($14.96): Q♠ 2♥ 9♠ 4♦ 4♠
HERO Checks, BB Bets $24.24 (allin), HERO Calls $24.24 (Rem. Stack: $7.71)

Works vs both player profiles

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($54.16) [VPIP: 32.6% | PFR: 19.6% | AGG: 34.7% | Hands: 94]
SB ($31.38) [VPIP: 26.3% | PFR: 20.5% | AGG: 34.3% | Hands: 870]
BB ($34.63) [VPIP: 17.9% | PFR: 11% | AGG: 26.6% | Hands: 1661]
UTG ($32.33) [VPIP: 36.4% | PFR: 22.7% | AGG: 32.4% | Flop Agg: 26.7% | Turn Agg: 38.5% | River Agg: 42.9% | 3Bet: 20% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 45]
HERO ($36.02) [VPIP: 28.5% | PFR: 23.5% | AGG: 37% | Flop Agg: 37.9% | Turn Agg: 35.1% | River Agg: 42.8% | 3Bet: 10.4% | Fold to 3Bet: 55.4% | 4Bet: 11.7% | Hands: 179539]
CO ($26.22) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 5]

Dealt to Hero: A♥ Q♠

UTG Raises To $0.55, HERO Raises To $1.63, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Folds, UTG Calls $1.08

Hero SPR on Flop: [8.5 effective]
Flop ($3.61): 8♠ J♣ 7♥
UTG Checks, HERO Bets $0.85 (Rem. Stack: $33.54), UTG Calls $0.85 (Rem. Stack: $29.85)

Turn ($5.31): 8♠ J♣ 7♥ J♦
UTG Bets $1.70 (Rem. Stack: $28.15), HERO Calls $1.70 (Rem. Stack: $31.84)

River ($8.71): 8♠ J♣ 7♥ J♦ 4♦
UTG Bets $4.35 (Rem. Stack: $23.80), HERO Raises To $31.84 (allin), UTG Folds