ME Day 1 puke spot

Not sure he would limp/raise from the SB with 44, 22 or 77 (if he's actually a solid player and has messed with HU solvers). He could have K2, K3, K4, K5, but that would be the case K. AA might go for some super thin value (or even try to get a big fold, but that seems unlikely). Only hand I see you losing to that makes sense is KQ or KJ but that's not many combos.

Sucks but seems like you gotta call even thought it just feels like you're going to run into a boat

Very brutal spot. I likely fold. It looks like an AK hand and he thinks you have KQ or KJ and will call. In theory though it could be K7s/K4s/K2s. It could also be 77 trying to get you to fold 88/99/TT type hands on the turn.

It is slightly less than twice pot bet on the river. So the chances of it being a bluff or AA have to be over 40% of the time in order to make it worth calling. And from a value standpoint I don't think people would be doing this with AA or K9s/K8s type hands because you raised preflop and have called flop and turn. In this event I just don't see people overbluffing in this spot.

This is from THE main event? Pretty sick spot. I don't know what to tell you. Of course it's got to be a GTO call in theory.

In the main I would think it would be a fold against most players. I guess you've got to ask yourself if you're up against the type of player who is willing to risk their tournament life in the biggest freezeout of the year to exploit the field's tendency to overfold? I would almost rule out worse Kx as I think they size smaller, because people won't call an overbet with less than trips. So realistically you probably only beat a bluff.

I wouldn't really expect him to be limp raising the small pairs that connect with this board to make boats. Maybe 77 could be possible, if he took an aggressive line and then rivered a boat, but even that seems somewhat unlikely.

The line really smells like AK. Or a bluff I guess. This is the time you've got to go with your soul read.

For me this is one of those no f'ing idea spots and I would make my best guess whether based on everything I've seen this player is capable of that line with air or not then go from there.

for me in theory he should be bluffing more than he has it given it's hard for you to have a boat or AK but in reality is another question.

I thin super underbluff spot u beat 0 value and unsure if anyone bluffs this node especially on Vegas ME

Yeah, it is easy to overbluff blind vs blind when the ranges are so wide. In the main it's difficult to say whether this is the case. I feel like it's going to be a fairly binary decision. Like you'll have some tight recreational players and tight pros who would never take this line as a bluff, but there could be other player types who are completely out of line here.

What are Villains bluffs? I can't find any 'natural' bluffs. I think you will see AK here the vast majority of the time.

I guess in theory his best bluffs block boats; 42s? But, come on. Even a 40 something hoodie wearing guy isn't doing this L2 of the main.

in reality I'm probably folding too, wasn't me but if it was me you probably will fold and probably shouldn't fold so there's that

Can we get the result?

Yeh I'd just fold the river - you have plenty of Kx and good Kx yet he's betting 2x pot on the river and its the ME. A solver would say never fold as you're insanely exploitable but this is live play with very unbalanced players. Even if you fold and he shows two napkins I wouldn't feel bad about it.

Weird hand since you have all the nutted range (22, 77, 66, K7s, K6s) and he is still blasting without fear, in retrospect, he probably has AK and puts you on Kx and thinks you have to pay him off.

I might just call with value here (AK+) and fold the rest. Maybe call if V is some super high roller sicko.

If you think about the 3 outcomes

Calling and winning: ok cool but not that significant at this stage of the tourney
Calling and losing: freezeout, disastrous outcome, you will think about this hand for the rest of your life.
Folding: still have over 120bbs so not a huge deal

Funny, I'd be more likely to call a rec vs a HR reg. The rec will blindly blast off without regard to stack preservation and perceived ranges. The top players find bluffs in spots that make sense, not just "oh the board paired so he likely doesn't have a K, let's bluff him off a value hand". That generally does not go well

I agree with you for flop and turn but the river 2x overbet jam is massively underbluffed by recs especially in the main event (there are exceptions of course).

Level 2 of the ME it’s a fold to the LRR, right? What is KT ahead of? So he maybe steals 1.8% of your stack, so what.