Mistake strategy or good decision in a big mtt ?
Hi,
We disagree with my friend who played a huge online 3days Mtt event : 35000 players, 50 euros buyin. There are 60 players left, obviously itm for a long time. Next payout 1500 euros, winner payout 61000 euros. Btn you have 30bb and have been dealt 99. Utg shoves 15bb (not a good player). What is the optimal play here considering : low variance to keep the stack and wait for other pots or take the spot now ? Thanks !
2 Replies
It's pretty close. By default I'm probably folding because people are generally stronger than GTO ranges when they shove more than 12 BB from early position late in a large field tournament. I don't know what the average stack sizes are, and it's significant whether SB and BB cover us.
Just ran an ICM sim real quick in HRC using a smaller tournament payout structure where there were only 1, 100 starting players. I set the SB at 25 BB and BB at 30 BB and had a 32 bb average stack size with 60 remaining and 110 paid.
With that setup 99 was the worst pocket pair we were calling with on the button (always calling or folding with everything, except AK is jamming). The amount of EV gained was pretty significant.
I'm basing my decision here on my read of UTG and how wide they're jamming. If it's close then I lean more towards calling if SB and BB are shorter stacked so that there's less risk from the players behind.
Thanks ! :-)
