Aces cracked on final table

The optimal play here would be to fold to the river bet. But then I can see Villain's hand...

Honestly I will often check the flop OOP HU even with the nut flush draw. Probably about half the time. But that makes it tougher on the river because we will have under-repped our hand and folding is more difficult.

Given that Villain didn't re-raise preflop it seems like they don't have an overpair which means they either have 2 pair+ (including flushes) or are stone cold bluffing with like a K high flush draw or a straight draw/flush draw combo. Because we have the A of clubs I would tend to think this is an under bluffing spot and would be tempted to fold the river. But I tend to make these mistakes with AA on a regular basis. Even recently.

because of BB's bounty I thought he may have overpairs, maybe AT off and T9s. after the tournament when reviewing the hand, I wondered if he'd gone for another river sizing with them (or just checked back). I think it wasn't obvious if I was on the fishy side who may call off with a T.

I saw that he's likely not going to have any bluffs there, but overpairs or AT, T9s seemed reasonable. I block flushes too.

Check-call flop is likely better.

GG - fold pre. Perfect example of so called “action flop”

Okay, time to nip this in the bud. Your own thread on rigging has gone on long enough and really belongs in the "Poker is rigged" threads on Discussion of Poker Sites.

If you start flooding other people's threads with "GG is rigged" posts, they're going to get deleted, with possibly other consequences.

You’re the boss. Starting on ACR tomorrow, from now only strategy involvement from my side. We good?

against his big river sizing we may have folded since it's hardly ever bluffs but oftenly nutted hands or thin exploitative value.

since big blind is rather deep stacked too opp would have less incentive to slow play JJ+ pre. so he actually may have rarely overpairs there.

If we check-call flop, we may get value from barelling broadway bluffs or underpairs or weaker hands than our Aces. on the river we can decide, and maybe it's not for our stack.

This might be a crying call midgame, if we think villain is tough/crazy enough to shove river after your line raise-bet- call reraise, call turnbet. But on a final table?

I think your reasoning about BBs big bounty leads you in the wrong direction also. It might be correct he will call lighter pre because of it + call with Jj and QQ. But after the action OTF and OTT his range is much much narrower. Its not like he will be very sticky post just because he called wide. Especially after BB folded pre.

Both 99 and TT are both perfectly reasonable holdings also. And I expect most players on this level to check river here with overpairs. Not many players turning them into a bluff here. Because that is what it basically would be. And almost the same goes for the possible but now beaten T9.

I dont see anything else than a sigh fold here. But we have all made frustrated calls in this type of spots.

edit: in the initial post is a typo, it's bet-call flop, check-call turn and check-call river. hero is oop.

@swedishnit

how do you think opp will play JJ, QQ, KK, AA pre, given big blinds bounty? big blinds stack is 50 bigs, is it too large to influence opp's decision? what stack size would bring decisive strategic adjustments?

regards value betting the river as opp, I saw him betting JJ+ as pure exploitative play against some average calling station on this level. when I thought about his sizing, I would have chosen 25% - 33% on the river though (and he may too if he chose to bet his overpairs), and then folded against a raise.

I would rather check-call flop now.

Flop looks like bet-raise-call to me.