Seems like a good donkbet spot but not for GTOW
I was reviewing this hand from a $20 online MTT and found this spot that I thought looked ideal for a donkbet:
GGPoker, Hold'em No Limit - 400/800 (100 ante) - 7 players
Hand delivered by Pokeit
UTG: 11,827 (15 bb)
MP: 26,521 (33 bb)
MP+1: 16,655 (21 bb)
CO: 17,989 (22 bb)
BU: 22,421 (28 bb)
SB: 27,386 (34 bb)
BB (Hero): 14,164 (18 bb)
Pre-Flop: (1,900) Hero is BB with 4♣ 5♥
4 players fold, BTN raises to 1,760, 1 fold, Hero calls 960
Flop: (4,620) 3♠ 4♠ 3♥ (2 players)
Hero checks
My rationale is that I have a super vulnerable pair and it might be a good idea to deny equity to all of villain's overpair combos. This hand will become very difficult to play on a very large number of turn cards. And it isn't an ideal x/r spot because I only have a backdoor straight draw and no spade, and villain will likely check behind at a decent frequency here (GTOW actually has him checking behind 21%).
But when I ran it though GTOW, it has BB checking 99.9% of the time here. Any thoughts on why? Is this a function of stack size?
6 Replies
Pretty sure that it is SPR. You probably have zero donks with under 3 SPR. x/shove might be best line at this SPR with top pair and OESD?
Backdoor OESD, but yes, that would make sense.
I'm not sure how much leading we do on paired boards - I'm not sure we'd ever lead one with trips, so leading out makes it easy for villain to put us in the blender.
Oops, misread flop. Thought it was 234.
Check out how often GTOW bets when you check. I bet it is very high. If Villain is supposed to always bet, we essentially get 'position' by checking.
This is a good spot for a check raise to deny equity to overcards (not overpairs 😀)
Check out how often GTOW bets when you check. I bet it is very high. If Villain is supposed to always bet, we essentially get 'position' by checking.
This is a good spot for a check raise to deny equity to overcards (not overpairs 😀)
GTOW has villain betting about 80% here, which is a bit surprising given how good the flop is for my range. But I guess that's a function of it being a paired board.
And you're right, if villain bets it has me x/raising 100% - which is also surprising because GTOW typically only x/raises spots like this with hands that have multiple ways to improve.
I'm assuming this is all a function of stack size but I've run out of free daily browsing so I'll have to check another time.
The fact that this board improves your range more than the Villain's is not the right metric.
When you called preflop, you were at a significant disadvantage. This board helps you catch up, but your equity will still be behind Villain's.
Especially at this low SPR the fact that you have more 3x is nice, but keep in mind, that an overpair is clearly worth playing for stacks, and Villain still has a substantial advantage there. In fact, I don't think you should have any overpairs at this stack depth, except for trapped AA (and maybe KK).
Your donk leads should only be coming on the very best boards for you, something like 876 or 986tt where you have caught up to Villain in range equity, and they will have a lot of checkbacks
