limped pot trips with top kicker

Different Vs, Doc. BU bet flop, BB leads turn, BU folds, action on the checking SB H.

I'm not folding yet. I will if BB rips 300 over my 100-125 raise though, lol. Or Java's advice on a smaller raise might be better.

Jesus. That may make it even more of a fold. What the hell is he betting here?

I guess maybe he has worse 8x at some frequency, because it's LOL-stakes. It seems like a spot where everyone says we should have known he had us beat after we go broke, but no one wants to risk losing our customer by just betting flop for value.

My guess is V's betting an 8, maybe a DD draw they backed into. They have literally a 100% range on the flop. (OK, they probably don't have QQ+, AK.) Even if they have an 8, H beats most of them.

They started with 500, have 460-ish left after this bet, and there's 83 in the pot with their bet. We're limited to a max 300 bet (With no raises? I don't play in WA), so we can't rip it in easily on a great river.

I also want to make drawing to diamonds a mistake, as well as get some more value with trips/TK, so I think a raise beats a call. I think folding to this size, when we actually have an 8, and a decent one, is a mistake. If this V reraises, we're probably beat by 87/82/22 and can fold.

Odds of 8's kicker and 33-77 overtaking us on the turn are between 15:1 - 23:1. A $10 bet into $17 offers them about 2.5:1. This is a great price?

GcluelessgreatpricenoobG

Even if V1 correctly figures us for an 8 he can still easily be betting all his worse 8s (of which there are plenty). The choice isn't between folding and calling, it's between calling and raising, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Do the implied odds when they hit and we stack off.

Those small pocket pairs need to make up about $200 on a $10 bet in order to just barely breakeven seeing a turn, so good luck to them being insanely profitable. The point of the flop bet with the current ~nuts isn't to protect against the rare hand who could make a very unprofitable bink, it's also to draw along hands that are drawing ~dead, and smaller sizing is just going to accomplish that so much better than larger sizing, imo.

GIthinkwemayhavetoagrreetodisagreehereG

In the SB against that large field you bet large and charge them to catch up

LOLLLLLLLLLLL at folding turn for 25. Hahahaha omg I spit out my drink. So bad. Wow.......

Doc how did we go from betting 6x pot on flop to check folding turn?

Call turn and call river. We can raise fold turn but I like playing possum oop.

If he bets small we can check raise river.

Not sure it matters, but there's a bet size cap in this game. IIRC from previous hands posted here, it used to be $100, but we're told it's now $300. Raising here versus a face-up player lets H get stacks in more easily vs waiting until river, plus makes draws -EV. I don't think a TP finds a fold with a weaker case 8.

I said 1.5x pot, not 6x. I wanted to target 33-77 and worse 8x.

When V1 leads turn into multiple people, he shouldn't be doing it with just a naked flush draw. He should have 77 or 87, or at worst, 22.

But wouldn’t 6x pot make us look more full of ****?

We have top kicker he can easily be donking turn with worse.

1.5x pot is $25. 6x pot is $100. If we bet $25, we can get called by the hands we're targeting for value. If we bet $100, we're probably only getting called by 22/82. Maybe we get stacks in with worse 8x, but our opponent would have to be pretty bad.

What worse hands do you expect him to have here, given the flop action? Do you think he's just randomly coming out and donking into multiple opponents with worse 8x? Why? Because a BDFD appears?

I mean, ok, it's possible.

There just aren't that many worse combos of 8x available.

Yes, I do think he might take this line with worse 8x and he has a lot (all?) 8x combos.

Okay, fair enough.

FWIW, I think this spot benefits from some hand reading and being logically consistent with our decisions from one point to the next.

When multiple players limp pre, I'm not expecting any of them to have 99+. When we flop trips with top kicker on 882rb, the hands we can target for value are 33-77, and worse 8x, but there just aren't that many combos of worse 8x that are possible.

We can bet small, and hope to get called by a wider range that includes over-cards, but even if we get called, any halfway decent opponent isn't going to want to pile it in if they just make 1P.

33-77 and worse 8x are effectively the top of our opponents' ranges (ignoring 22/82). Those are the only hands we can expect to extract value from over multiple streets, because those are the only hands with a chance to improve to a nutted hand.

The farther we get in this hand, the harder it gets to extract value from worse. That's why I wanted to over-bet the flop. Any 3-7 or 9 are potentially terrible cards for us, as they may boat our opponents up. In a limped pot, even over-cards to a 9 might conceivably hit a worse 8x to boat up. It wouldn't be shocking to see someone turn up with T8, J8, etc.

Most players tend to play multi-way pots pretty face up. Once there's a bet and a call on the flop, I think don't think we're going to see many backdoor draws or worse value hands being barreled off or donked into multiple opponents with uncapped ranges on the turn.

It's possible BB is leading turn with worse 8x to prevent BTN from checking through with a draw, but we're still in the hand. Even if BTN was bluffing with total air on the flop, and also picked up the BDFD, we can be sandbagging with a monster in the SB. There's just not much incentive for BB to come out and bet worse 8x for protection, especially not on a 7, which is going to make combos of 87/77 a boat.

It would make more sense if BB turned a boat, and is taking the betting lead now, to make sure money goes in on this street.

If we think BB has worse 8x here, we could have 1.5x potted it on the flop, and expected him to call. As I suggested, we could size down on the turn, to see if he wants to raise with better, and get called by worse. Now we're just guessing about what to do.

If we bet 1.5x pot on the flop and they all fold, it's not the worst outcome. We win 6BB without a fight when we're OOP to the field, when the alternative will often be losing a bigger pot when our opponents improve after we give them a cheap chance to out-draw us IP.

Doc, V's the BB in a gazillion way limped pot. They have every 8x combo, from 82 to A8, offsuit and suited, and H's A8o beats most of them on 8827dd.

Let's get paid. Most TPs are gonna still think about calling J8, etc if H raises, and they're not going to rip a max bet back at H w/o a boat. They're also probably not going to stab again IP on river, so H has to do the betting here. If they don't have an 8, but are optimistically stabbing with diamonds, H is also not getting any more money out of them unless they hit.

Look, allow me to say in advance of the reveal that it's totally possible that I'm completely wrong, and I am in no way convinced I'm completely right. That said, I think we have to be realistic, rely on priors, or whatever it takes to range opponents in a way that makes sense.

Yes, the BB can literally have every combo of 8x in a limped pot. That would include A8 and 87, as well as 82. He could also have 22, and for all we know, 77.

But, look at the flop action - we checked, BB checked, everyone and their mother checked to the BTN, who bet just a hair under full pot, then we called *next to act*, and the BB over-called, with the deep-stacked action guy two seats to his left, still to act.

The BTN could be stabbing with ATC, but it was 7 ways to the flop. He's not supposed to be stabbing with air. When we call next to act, we're definitely supposed to have something better than 2x or 33-77.

When the BB over-calls, he's absolutely positively supposed to have a decent piece of this board, or at least a hand that can improve in a big way. With the action player still in the hand, it seems reasonable to think BB may have been hoping he'd come along.

The BTN is un-capped. We're un-capped. It seems really unlikely BB is going to limp in pre, then over-call the flop, without any sort of hand, and then come out and donk into two uncapped ranges with an extremely optimistic backdoor draw, or even some 8-rag combo.

It's also logically inconsistent to $hlt on the idea of betting $25 on the flop to get called by worse 8x and 33-77, saying we need to just check-call or bet small instead, to get called by a super-wide range of trash hands that weren't strong enough to raise pre, but then discount the likelihood that V shows up here with 87, 22, 82, or 77 after over-calling the flop, and suggest his turn donking range is going to be worse 8x and flush draws, when he donks into two opponents after just checking his option pre, and check-calling flop.

Yeah, he could have floated really wide and picked up a draw, but he could have just as easily floated with 87 and 77 that just boated up, or 82/22 that flopped it. And of all the hands we're putting into his range, does it seem more likely he'd donk into two uncapped ranges with the strongest hands in his range, or the middling ones?

How does BB know we're not sand-bagging 22, or A8, or 87, or 77, or 82? How does he know BTN has none of those hands? Would you make this play with some craptastic combo of 8-rag, or some whack-a$$ backdoor draw, on a paired board? Wouldn't you only do this with a hand you KNOW is probably best, not a hand you think MIGHT be best?

Do we REALLY think BB is just going to check his option pre, check-over-call an almost pot-sized flop bet, then randomly come out and donk into two uncapped ranges on the 7d turn, with 8-rag, or a BDFD?

The read on BB is that he's a tight-passive(ish) MAWG. Does that sound like the guy who's going to suddenly wake up on the turn and decide, "Oh, I should bluff here, or turn my showdown value into a bluff, for no good reason whatsoever"? Or does that sound like the guy who's going to play face-up when he turns a boat and there's next to no money in the pot?

If the reveal here is OP won with A8, awesome. If BB shows up with worse 8x, there's very little chance he wouldn't have called a bigger bet on the flop if we just led out for $25, and we almost certainly left money on the table by letting others do the betting for us.

I won't be shocked if BB has A8 beat already, or has it beat by the river, if a bunch of money goes in.

Results

We left money on the table. No way he folds flop if we just lead out for $25. We could bet 40%-50% pot on turn, and 2/3 pot on river.

would have left more money on the table by folding 😀

Absolutely, and fair enough. But we're just mis-playing these spots all over the place if we're going to flop trips with top kicker, and not value bet, but then over-play our hand on future streets.

Why can't we just stay logically consistent, by coming out and betting our hand for value, and taking a max value line, rather than trapping on the flop, and then losing value when we suddenly wake up on a later street, when there are far fewer hands we can target for value, and our raise is so transparently face up?

doc, i like you, i think you're a winning player

but the manner you discuss hh with such absolute dogged certainty is a huge leak of yours that holds you back from being a better player

A better player would just come out and 1.5x potted it on the flop, to target worse 8x.

I think we should sometimes bet and sometimes check with the effective nuts. I don’t expect anyone to stab but maybe they’ll turn top pair.