2024 Fantasy Football Thread

I think zero RB and even extreme zero RB is the way to go if you are drafting in the back half. I like to grab an elite QB and an elite TE in this structure if possible. The majority of drafters have predictably gone back to drafting RB's early. The majority of drafters are almost always wrong year to year. Last year zero RB was the way to go even though it was a horrible rookie RB class. The fantasy hive just went with what has worked the last few years. Unfortunately we are dealing with a super small sample size. This year is a fantastic RB rookie class and this should be taken advantage of. Also, going zero RB is a great way to get different. Also, there seems to be a lot less you need to get right. The elite QB's, TE's and WR's are usually gonna be good. If your team is strong in these positions you just need to get lucky with an RB or two. I like throwing darts at 6 or 7 RBs.

If I'm picking in the top half of drafts I'm still hoping to get an elite WR. I will take RB here though and then go hero RB the rest of the way. I will pivot if there is a great RB value throughout the draft.

I don't think it's possible to know what an optimal team structure looks like. I think we know what suboptimal is though. I don't go into drafts necessarily thinking I need x many of any position. Depending on how the draft goes it all seems to work out. I will have a lot of 6 or 7 RB teams. I will have a lot of 3 QB teams because this feels correct to me. I don't hate 4 TE teams. I very much dislike 4 QB teams. I quite often have 6 WR teams on UD.

Ultimately this game is about 98% luck so who knows.

Unless you want to start RB/RB, you almost have to take a WR if you're starting with a top 3 pick. It's really hard to get an elite WR in the 2nd.

Starting at picks 10-12 offers a lot more flexibility. My preference is to start with 2 RBs and 2 WRs (on DK). This gives me 2 elite WRs and 2 RBs with upside and early season production. It also lets me really push RB3 and focus on filling out the rest of my team.

Occasionally I'll mix in a Bowers or elite QB over a 2nd RB.

It's hard to get an elite RB at the end of the second as well. I hate this part of the draft. I'm not into Taylor or Bucky. I'm not taking Tee. It feels too early for McBride. Tyreek is starting to go earlier in the second now. Fortunately I took a ton of him when he was ridiculously going in the third. I love picking in the middle of the first. Give me CMC and then AJ, Ladd or Bowers.

The advantage of going with Jayden/Kyler is that you are done at QB. I think option C is the obvious correct choice.

Also, I don't think Darnold finishes the year as the starter. I think he turns back into a pumpkin.

Deebo seems to fall in every draft. I have to google him to make sure he didn't get hurt.

Zero RB did terribly last year. At this point, the data shows that you really need to be drafting RBs by round 6 at the latest, and ideally secure at least 2-3 that have projected early season snaps. Even if you hit on all of the zero RB targets, they may take a while to come on, which makes advancing from your pod that much tougher, even if you have a bunch of good picks for the endgame.

For instance, Charbs had some great weeks when KW missed time last season, but he didn't have enough good weeks to help you advance by himself. He also didn't matter in the playoff weeks.

The same goes for Bucky, who was a great pick but took a while to take over the backfield. I've been drafting a solid mix of early season production + last season upside, as newguy alluded to by securing 2 early and then pushing RB3 by hitting all of the zero RB targets later.

With regard to WRs in playoff best ball, the best picks will be the ones that spike weeks 15-17. The spike weeks tend to come from the WRs drafted in the top 36 of the position + rookies/second year players, which is why they continue to be pushed up. But their value comes from helping you separate from the field in the playoff weeks. The same goes for TEs. QBs and RBs are more important for advancing out of your pod. There will only be a few WRs that truly matter for advancing, such as Chase last year who had something like a 45-50% advance rate.

The above is mostly from the standpoint of UD scoring. On DK, WRs are more valuable due to full PPR + bonuses.

Taylor, Bucky, Tee, and McBride all won leagues and contests last year. Even at their prices, they are great picks for what we are playing for.

I'm building a portfolio and not concerned with that specific team, necessarily. While not exactly optimal, draft volume should affect the way you approach decisions like this. There is so much chaos and uncertainty, that we'll only truly know what the right pick was in situations like this once we have the results. As jimmy mentioned, option C is probably most optimal, but you should still mix options A and B at some clip. There are scenarios where Darnold helps that team stacked with KW/JSN in best ball format. Hunter and Ferguson could both easily be zeros, whereas Darnold will definitely not be, even if he eventually turns into a pumpkin.

Deebo will be one of my highest drafted players. It'll only be 14-16% total, but especially as we lose confidence in more WRs such as Rice, Godwin, and Aiyuk, players like Deebo look more and more attractive.

This makes a lot of sense. My one push back is that zero RB did terrible last year because the rookies overall were not great and not plentiful. Also, if you went zero RB you didn't get Barkley, Henry, Jacobs etc.

Even though it might take a while for my zero RB targets to get it going I'm making up for it at the other three positions. Also, I like to mix in some vets so I shouldn't be taking any zeros early on.

I will be doing far less drafts than you guy's this year. Even far less than last year. I did 300 last year and will probably barely hit 100 this year. Therefore, I'm in more position to just take a stand and my stand is zero or even extreme zero RB. I'll mix in other roster constructions of course.

Your Darnold argument doesn't make sense to me. You have Jayden and Kyler. The bet is Jayden is gonna be a top 3 QB. Kyler should have a good floor and some spike weeks. You spent high draft capital on your top two which should allow you to focus on other positions. How often do you expect Darnold to be the guy you need on a particular week? I would by far prefer to have Hunter or Ferguson. I agree with Newguy that if I did this I'd go with a slightly later but more upside pick.

The poor rookie RB class was part of the zero RB failure. The guys you listed staying healthy and crushing was another part. The WR injuries in the top 100 ADP didn't help, either. I agree, the less volume you fire, the more stands you should take with regard to roster construction and player takes.

As far as Darnold, adding him to that roster certainly isn't the highest upside pick, but he can still contribute to your roster, even with Jayden and Kyler. And when you bet on JSN and KW this season, you're betting on Darnold. I certainly wouldn't have considered him unstacked. Darnold can add points towards advance rate. Darnold can outscore Jayden/Kyler in weeks 15-17. The sims have shown that having 3 QBs, even when it's with an elite, can add +ev.

I know last year isn't exactly a pure comparison to Darnold's current situation, but Darnold would have added 24.9 total points to the roster in the regular season. Weekly variance could also cause that addition to be +/- in any given season. There are plenty of teams that missed out advancing by less than 24.9 points. Maybe Hunter and/or Ferguson add that much to your roster. Maybe they don't.

And that 24.9 calculation is with both Kyler/Jayden staying healthy. There are also worlds where Jayden/Kyler miss games due to injury where Darnold can help the team advance or win one of the playoff pods. I'm never drafting trying to protect against injury, but it's also part of the chaos where you can draft players that make sense on a team that also provide that potential benefit. Adding a stacked QB in round 17, where there are tons of zeros, raises the floor, which can help you reach your ceiling when it matters. Which is why there is an argument where you occasionally mix options A/B, and it's not always option C.

It's a volume portfolio bet. I think you are looking at it too binary.

My first non-slow DK Milly. Most of my drafts have followed the "push RB3 as far as possible" thinking. But I also really like having 4 WRs through round 7...so taking early TE (and QB) makes the RB2 weak-ish. I think I'm higher on Ken Walker than most -- he's been a good release valve for me in R3 if I don't get a hero RB I like earlier.

2QB-8RB-7WR-3TE

Mahomes, Love
Walker, Skattebo, Sampson, Shipley, J Hunter, B Smith, K Mitchell, Etienne (CAR)
Nabers, Worthy, T McMillan, Reed, Golden, Burden, J McMillan
Bowers, Likely, Sanders (CAR)

I think it might be too many rookies and contingent plays, but it certainly has upside throughout. You just need enough early season production to stay afloat.

Thanks. Yup in retrospect I like this team a lot more if I take a WR/RB instead of Mahomes, and then swap out Sampson/Burden for a late QB.

Burrow, JJM, Rodgers

Gibbs, Warren, Spears, Sampson, Lloyd, Hunter, Brooks

Tee, DJM, Olave, Addison, Downs, Kirk, Austin, ADM

Bowers, Gesicki

The oldest QB and 2 of the oldest WRs. Should be unique.

Lamar, Rodgers, Shough

Jacobs, Pacheco, ETN, White, Neal, Woody, Brooks

Chase, Tet, Flowers, Jennings, Shaheed, Thielen, Austin, Nuk

Andrews, Kraft

A little more my speed

Purdy, Tua, Dimes

Breece, Cook, Mondre, Guerendo, Allgeier, Wright

Puka, Hill, Jamo, Jennings, Shakir, Godwin (94), Dyami, ADM

Njoku, Higbee, Kmet

Phins or bust haha. I think both teams look good. My only nitpick between the two is Rodgers and Austin is kind of meh, but I do like the QB combo of Rodgers/Shough with an elite. Godwin at 94 as your WR6 bakes in all of the downside, especially with Mia pieces. That's the price I can get back in on.

I drafted a couple of DK teams.

$3 $1.5 mil

$9 $300k Button Hook

I'm usually a flat exposure drafter. But I think I'm going to have 30%-40% of each of McBride and Bowers on my DK teams. The fact they're priced the same as UD is crazy. One price is wrong, and I think it's DK.

I've mostly been doing BBM slows, but I fired by second fast with the lack of contests right now.

Goff, Penix, Geno

Jeanty, Omarion, Mixon, Skattebo, Ekeler

ARSB, Evans, Jauan, Mooney, Egbuka, Thornton, Keenan

Loveland, Otton, Higbee

Hopefully the rookies to pay off. I'm willing to bet on 4/6 being first rounders.

You know I don't like to draft Rodgers. The plan was to take Bryce and stop at 2 QBs, but he got pulled up naked at 141. Thielen was pretty much a tilted pick out of spite.

both your teams look good but I think I prefer the $9

I was thinking about this yesterday morning also and 100% agree

Even though I like Bowers over McBride, I'll probably end up with more Trey just based on where they're going.

It's just so hard for me to take Bowers over Achane, London, Ladd, and AJB.

But I've got no issues taking Trey over JT, Jacobs, and Tee.

Jayden, JJM, TLaw (140)

Monty, Pacheco, Charb, Ekeler, Shipley, Giddens

JJ, Hill, Higgins, Hunter, Mooney, Dyami, Coker, Turpin

Hock, Ertz, Strange

This was an insane wr ADP room

Caleb, Herbert, Tlaw

Walker, Kaleb, Pollard, Sampson, Roschon, Sanders, Mostert

Puka, Nico, Tee, MHJ, Pickens, Wandale, Dyami

Loveland, Strange, Conklin

RIP Fields. Brutal
Hope it’s minor but doesn’t sound like it

Milly

Nix, TLaw, Shough

Bucky, Walker, Pacheco, Ford, Braelon, Giddens

BTJ, Tee, DK, Olave, Mims, QJ, McMillan, Franklin

Engram, Likely, Kmet

Yeah, I definitely want exposure to all 4 of those guys too. On both of those teams posted above, all 4 of those guys were off of the board.

I think to get to my target exposures, I'll probably almost always take Bowers mid-first when he's there and rarely pull him up in the 2nd, but I might have to some reach sometimes. McBride is definitely an easier click.

Wow, you might have been able to stop at 5 haha. It looks good.

You know we're back when we're getting carted off the field during training camp reports with no context. The report now is dislocated toe. Hopefully he can be ready for the start of the season. I guess I'll buy the incoming dip and add some Tyrod at the end of my SF slows.